NL Central Discussion

[bensheeps]

Interesting conversation with a fellow fan yesterday and interested in thoughts of other posters...

 

If you were promised that one of the Reds or Cubs would fall out of the race immediately, but with the caveat that the other would be neck and neck with the Brewers until the very end - which team would you choose to fall out/be in it?

We went back and forth on the fact that the Brewers/Cubs still face off 6 more times, who we think is the stronger team between the Reds & Cubs, etc.

What's your take and why do you pick the way you do?

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

Interesting conversation with a fellow fan yesterday and interested in thoughts of other posters...

 

If you were promised that one of the Reds or Cubs would fall out of the race immediately, but with the caveat that the other would be neck and neck with the Brewers until the very end - which team would you choose to fall out/be in it?

We went back and forth on the fact that the Brewers/Cubs still face off 6 more times, who we think is the stronger team between the Reds & Cubs, etc.

What's your take and why do you pick the way you do?

Easily the Cubs. Because we already have the tiebreaker over the Reds and the Reds have been overachieving the whole season and are coming back down to earth. 

Cubs have a deep lineup and an easy schedule that will give us problems. We'll have a relatively easy schedule, too, once we get past this week, but the division lead will likely go down, if not be erased. 

[StearnsFTW]

19 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

Interesting conversation with a fellow fan yesterday and interested in thoughts of other posters...

 

If you were promised that one of the Reds or Cubs would fall out of the race immediately, but with the caveat that the other would be neck and neck with the Brewers until the very end - which team would you choose to fall out/be in it?

We went back and forth on the fact that the Brewers/Cubs still face off 6 more times, who we think is the stronger team between the Reds & Cubs, etc.

What's your take and why do you pick the way you do?

I think the Cubs are better than the Reds just because of the pitching.  I expect the Reds to be 8-10 back by the end and always have.

[igor67]

Well with a slight lead in the season series already the Brewers only need to split the remaining 6 to have the tie breaker over the Cubs. So even just winning the series at the end of the month puts the Cubs into needing to sweep us on the road to end the season to have that advantage.

[BruisedCrew]

“Only need to split”.

Based on the dogfights in the series here around the 4th, splitting 6 games against the Cubs is not going to be easy. Their lineup is impressive and they have some pitchers who seem to have success against the Brewers. 
 

I’m expecting the race to come down to that series the last weekend.

[wibadgers23]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m expecting the race to come down to that series the last weekend.

Am Fam full of screaming Cubs fans that weekend is going to be gross. I just hope they are completely out of the race by then.

[BruisedCrew]

29 minutes ago, igor67 said:

Well with a slight lead in the season series already the Brewers only need to split the remaining 6 to have the tie breaker over the Cubs. So even just winning the series at the end of the month puts the Cubs into needing to sweep us on the road to end the season to have that advantage.

I will be out of the country so I won’t have to listen to it if the race does come down to that last weekend. 

[KeithStone53151]

7 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

Am Fam full of screaming Cubs fans that weekend is going to be gross. I just hope they are completely out of the race by then.

Get tickets now, and don't sell them on stubhub. $20 profit per ticket can't be worth letting an extra cubs fan in the door.

[Fear The Chorizo]

and they have some pitchers who seem to have success against the Brewers. 
 

Based on how most of the season has gone for the Brewers offensively, I think the above statement is true for every team.

I've felt since very early on this season that the Cubs would be the primary competition for the division if they got more consistent pitching and decided not to sell at the deadline.  Their pitching has been better of late but their recent good stretch of baseball is largely due to Bellinger's return giving their offense a boost to take them from pretty good to really good in terms of run scoring.  Their pen still has holes and their rotation leans awfully hard on Stroman, a guy who hasn't been good for over a month, now.  I still think the Cubs can hang close based on their schedule, but part of me feels like it's just their turn amongst the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs as the team closest to the Brewers in the standings as this season has progressed.  

If Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta stay healthy along with a few key guys in the lineup staying healthy and productive enough, the Cubs won't be able to pass the Brewers up in the standings.

 

 

[StearnsFTW]

?

 

Steele is by far their best pitcher.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

14 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

?

 

Steele is by far their best pitcher.

 

He's also been very good this season, but up until a month ago Stroman had been their workhorse and had better #'s than Steele besides W/L record...and that workload appears to have caught up to him a bit as his last 4-5 outings have been pretty short.  

[nate82]

55 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Get tickets now, and don't sell them on stubhub. $20 profit per ticket can't be worth letting an extra cubs fan in the door.

If it is going to be for the division it will probably be more than $20 extra for a ticket.  Well depending on where that ticket is.  Probably closer to $50 extra for a ticket.

[Underachiever]

31 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He's also been very good this season, but up until a month ago Stroman had been their workhorse and had better #'s than Steele besides W/L record...and that workload appears to have caught up to him a bit as his last 4-5 outings have been pretty short.  

Hopefully Taillon comes back to earth as well. He's had a real nice middle of the season, but his last outing was rough.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers have 3 days off over the course of 11 days during this current stretch, followed by only 3 days off over a 38 day stretch to close the season. We'll have a couple extra bodies in September, keeping guys fresh and occasional off days will be important down the stretch. I also wonder if we'll go back to a 6 man rotation once Rea/Teheran are healthy(despite their struggles).

[Brewcrew82]

51 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

. I also wonder if we'll go back to a 6 man rotation once Rea/Teheran are healthy(despite their struggles).

I hope not. Those guys did their jobs keeping us somewhat afloat while we had major injuries/underperformance from our rotation, but they're probably 5+ ERA guys moving forward. Can't have that in a tight race. 

If we wanted a 6th starter, Gasser and/or Lauer would be the way to go with their relatively higher upside. 

[AKCheesehead]

23 hours ago, bensheeps said:

Interesting conversation with a fellow fan yesterday and interested in thoughts of other posters...

 

If you were promised that one of the Reds or Cubs would fall out of the race immediately, but with the caveat that the other would be neck and neck with the Brewers until the very end - which team would you choose to fall out/be in it?

We went back and forth on the fact that the Brewers/Cubs still face off 6 more times, who we think is the stronger team between the Reds & Cubs, etc.

What's your take and why do you pick the way you do?

That's easy, cubs.  Not for any strategic reasons.  I just dislike them, their fans, and their city.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, AKCheesehead said:

That's easy, cubs.  Not for any strategic reasons.  I just dislike them, their fans, and their city.

I was going to say the exact same thing.

[KeithStone53151]

I didn't realize the Cubs had a good farm system. I wonder how much of it is real vs big market bias. I'm guessing they finally got smart a good decade after the Dodgers did and flexed their financial muscle a bit to hire better development staff. Based on this chart, and considering young talent that graduated from these lists, the Cardinals are in a bad way and could be bad for a while.

[StearnsFTW]

6 of the top 10 are likely playoff teams.  That seems like a change from the past. 

Scouting and development are at an even bigger premium than ever.

 

[LouisEly]

25 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

didn't realize the Cubs had a good farm system.

They've been bad the last two years, so they've had high draft picks and they've traded away good players for prospects (Darvish, Pederson, Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Kimbrel, Williams, Robertson).

Trading away those guys, they should have a good farm system.

[Jopal78]

30 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I didn't realize the Cubs had a good farm system. I wonder how much of it is real vs big market bias. I'm guessing they finally got smart a good decade after the Dodgers did and flexed their financial muscle a bit to hire better development staff. Based on this chart, and considering young talent that graduated from these lists, the Cardinals are in a bad way and could be bad for a while.

I wouldn’t necessarily credit the Cubs getting better development staff or being smarter.

Their prospects in the Top 100 came from breaking up their World Series team/selling and the losing that followed in the immediate aftermath.

Crow-Armstrong for Baez

Kevin Alcantara for Rizzo

Ben Brown for David Robertson 

Owen Caissie for Darvish

Cade Horton was the #7 pick in ‘22 following the sell-off of July of ‘21 when the Cubs went  20-36 afterward.

[KeithStone53151]

9 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I wouldn’t necessarily credit the Cubs getting better development staff or being smarter.

Ok twist my arm, we don't have to give the Cubs credit for this. The last thing we want to do is give their doofy fans more reasons to irrationally believe in their team.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think the Cubs are better than the Reds. Fangraphs has them almost 5 times more likely to win the division than the Reds, so I'm with the general consensus on this one.

The Cubs big weakness to me seems to be depth and bullpen. I don't know what a rib cartilage fracture is, but it doesn't sound like something Stroman is going to recover from very quickly, especially factoring in a need to ramp up. That injury along might give the Brewers the edge. I'd put Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Miley-Houser up against Steele-Hendricks-Taillon-Smyly-? and feel like the Crew should win 3 out of those 5.

If the Brewers can stick around a 2-3 game lead heading into September, I'll feel pretty good. I think we have the best overall team in the division (despite glaring offensive weaknesses).

My one concern about the Reds is that they're going to have some soft landing spots the last couple of weeks of September. Hoping the brutal stretch they're in piles up a bunch of Ls.

[Jopal78]

The Brewers failure to beat up on the doormats like Oakland, Detroit and Washington comes back to haunt them in a tight division race. They’re going to have to win their division by beating the likes of the Rangers, Twins, Phillies, etc. 
 

Outside head to head matchups with Milwaukee, the Cubs have six games left against winning teams (3 with Atl, 3 with SF). 

[Outlander]

On 8/14/2023 at 2:45 PM, wibadgers23 said:

Am Fam full of screaming Cubs fans that weekend is going to be gross. I just hope they are completely out of the race by then.

You are going to really love it then when the Brewers-Cubs play in the first round of the playoffs right after.