NL Central Discussion

[BruisedCrew]

On 7/7/2023 at 6:08 PM, sveumrules said:

I’m honestly happy for Reds fans. They haven’t been to the playoffs after a full season since 2013, and that was a one & done Wild Card. Their only winning full season since then was going 83-79 for their “all-in” 2019. From 2014-22 only the Tigers and Marlins won fewer games in all of MLB.

They’ve been bad for a long time, they should be stocked with young talent and starting to finally come out of it.

Brewers fans have been living the high life by comparison, from 2017 through today they have won the 7th most games in MLB.

But that 2018 NLCS was a long time ago, and the 2021 NLDS offense has returned for the 2023 regular season.

Stearns & Hader are gone, Woody is hurt, Peralta, Burnes & Adames are underperforming to varying degrees, some think Counsell has one foot out the door.

It’s definitely looking like twilight for this (still pretty young) old core, but Milwaukee is the kind of town where the fun really starts happening when the sun goes down, so maybe they can still brew up one last batch of Oktoberfest.

Screw Reds fans. 

Reds fans my age got to enjoy the Big Red Machine and two World Series and a few other playoff appearances in the 70’s and then another World Series in 1988. And that was when making the playoffs was difficult. They’ve had enough other good seasons to entertain them.

As far as I’m concerned 3 World Series titles for your favorite team is more than any fan should get and any more than that is just greedy. 

Their younger fans have plenty of time to wait. Maybe I’ll have some sympathy for them in 2039 if they reach 26 years in between playoff appearances (not counting the COVID year, which I really don’t count for the Brewers). 
 

(Note: this is a little tongue in cheek, but not entirely. As a sports fan I tend to follow the advice of Mr. Applegate from the book “The Year The Yankees Lost the Pennant” (which was the basis for the musical “Damn Yankees”)

His credo was “Never Feel Sorry for Anybody”. 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Huh? I agree with fangraphs…saying it’s like a 1 in 20 chance that Cards could still make the playoffs…. Highly unlikely.  Others are more like 1 in 100 or 1000… so be it.  And then there are a few pridefuls that say there is a 0% chance …. And then when pushed just a little, they immediately abandon their claim and refute that by agreeing that mathematically, of course, that is not accurate. How is my position on this abnormal or unreasonable at all? 
The 2011 thing happened. You calling it an outlier… yep, I agree. Of course. Crazy odds. This, much more possible, but still extremely unlikely.

 

 

Ever heard of the exception the proves the rule?  2011 is kinda exactly like that.  The only reason the Cards are 4 times more likely to win the division (according to some) this year is that there are more games left to play.  Either way, my super proprietary formula says the Cards are 100% done and I've never backed off of that.

[YelichPosse]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Great points… not sure why this adds to whatever you are trying to do. That Braves team was 80-55 on Sept. 1……25 games over .500….they then collapse and go 9-18. Crazy. Very unlikely scenarios of a good Cards team getting crazy hot and another very good team getting crazy cold… thus the 1 in 100 odds.  Yep, one team to catch, but one team that was 25 games over .500!!!
Today, the Cards odds are 3 or 4 times more likely STILL to make the playoffs. Some acting like it is absolutely over…. Like 1 in a million… still boggles me. More like 1 in 25….1 in 30. Do I think this will happen? No.
 

But crazier things have happened….2011 is just one example. Thinking about it, I wonder if the Cards odds of winning World Series Game 6 was EVEN less than this scenerio when they were down by 3 with two outs in the 9th and nobody on… anybody remember that game? Rangers were so close to victory.

That game 6 - oh my goodness …. That was insane !!!!!!

[YelichPosse]

The Reds and Brewers match up really well and I think we will see games like today back and forth in all their matchups. Would be fun to play them in the playoffs - would be an epic series!

[rickh150]

25 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Ever heard of the exception the proves the rule?  2011 is kinda exactly like that.  The only reason the Cards are 4 times more likely to win the division (according to some) this year is that there are more games left to play.  Either way, my super proprietary formula says the Cards are 100% done and I've never backed off of that.

2011 proves the rule… that it is very unlikely, yet possible so that it is news worthy and note worthy.
The exception that proves the rule would be like a sign saying you cannot park on the street on Tuesdays from noon to 5:00P.M.  This exception on Tuesdays proves the rule that you must be allowed to park there all other times.

“Kinda, exactly” is hedging talk.

[rickh150]

5 minutes ago, YelichPosse said:

That game 6 - oh my goodness …. That was insane !!!!!!

Something like hit, walk, hit, double to tie..

[Brewcrew82]

3 hours ago, rickh150 said:

2011 proves the rule… that it is very unlikely, yet possible so that it is news worthy and note worthy.
The exception that proves the rule would be like a sign saying you cannot park on the street on Tuesdays from noon to 5:00P.M.  This exception on Tuesdays proves the rule that you must be allowed to park there all other times.

“Kinda, exactly” is hedging talk.

How about this rule…

 

[rickh150]

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

How about this rule…

 

Sounds great to me…

[82brewcrew82]

12 hours ago, rickh150 said:

2011 proves the rule… that it is very unlikely, yet possible so that it is news worthy and note worthy.
The exception that proves the rule would be like a sign saying you cannot park on the street on Tuesdays from noon to 5:00P.M.  This exception on Tuesdays proves the rule that you must be allowed to park there all other times.

“Kinda, exactly” is hedging talk.

Wrong.

"If you are making a general statement and you say that something is the exception that proves the rule, you mean that although it seems to contradict your statement, in most other cases your statement will be true. "

"the presence of an exception applying to a specific case establishes ("proves") that a general rule exists"

You're entire argument is hedging talk.  "Pigs could fly, but I don't think it's likely".  Or maybe more of a Monty Python skit at this point.  Either way, you keep pining for something that has literally never happened.

 

 

 

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Wrong.

"If you are making a general statement and you say that something is the exception that proves the rule, you mean that although it seems to contradict your statement, in most other cases your statement will be true. "

"the presence of an exception applying to a specific case establishes ("proves") that a general rule exists"

You're entire argument is hedging talk.  "Pigs could fly, but I don't think it's likely".  Or maybe more of a Monty Python skit at this point.  Either way, you keep pining for something that has literally never happened.

 

 

 

You lost me with the pigs….. what am I pining for exactly? Saying the Cards have 4% odds of making the playoffs?

[82brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

You lost me with the pigs….. what am I pining for exactly? 

Bless your heart.  You have a good day now.

[rickh150]

2 hours ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Wrong.

"If you are making a general statement and you say that something is the exception that proves the rule, you mean that although it seems to contradict your statement, in most other cases your statement will be true. "

"the presence of an exception applying to a specific case establishes ("proves") that a general rule exists"

You're entire argument is hedging talk.  "Pigs could fly, but I don't think it's likely".  Or maybe more of a Monty Python skit at this point.  Either way, you keep pining for something that has literally never happened.

 

 

 

I’ll go with my interpretation.

https://proofed.com/writing-tips/exception-that-proves-the-rule/#:~:text=For example%2C if you see,outside of the library”).

[rickh150]

Fangraphs-

Brewers at 53% and Reds at 41% for making playoffs today.  That third playoff spot likely keeps both about same regardless of what happens today.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds-graphs

[BruisedCrew]

I see that the Reds have called up Encarnacion-Strand from their warehouse of prospects. 
 

It will be interesting to see how the Reds, especially their offense,respond to scoring just 3 runs in those 4 losses to the Brewers. Will that prove to be just a brief slump in the midst of a hot streak or the beginning of a fade back to .500 as projected by Fangraphs. 

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I see that the Reds have called up Encarnacion-Strand from their warehouse of prospects. 
 

It will be interesting to see how the Reds, especially their offense,respond to scoring just 3 runs in those 4 losses to the Brewers. Will that prove to be just a brief slump in the midst of a hot streak or the beginning of a fade back to .500 as projected by Fangraphs. 

They’ll need to get the bats heated up again to have any hope with Greene/Lodolo injured currently and Abbott regressing to the mean as he approaches his previous professional high in IP.

As for CES, maybe he starts out sizzling before going ice cold like EDLC…

Elly De La Cruz 
first 71 PA: 179 wRC+ (26.8 K%)
last 76 PA: 48 wRC+ (32.9 K%)

…or maybe he starts out hot and mostly keeps it up like MM…

Matt McLain
first 124 PA: 133 wRC+ (26.6 K%)
last 123 PA: 125 wRC+ (30.1 K%)

…or maybe he even starts out slow before picking it up like fellow bat first/only prospect & Twins trade mate SS…

Spencer Steer
2022: 108 PA | 76 wRC+
2023: 386 PA | 120 wRC+

[Zad Fnark]

Cards sign Jacob Barnes to a ML contract.

Wonder if they'll be trading away the bullpen and need warm bodies afterwards.

Barnes to Cards

[Frisbee Slider]

Cardinals are winners of 5 straight and 8 of 10. I wouldn’t mind a Cubs win today to keep them well under .500.

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Cardinals are winners of 5 straight and 8 of 10. I wouldn’t mind a Cubs win today to keep them well under .500.

Agreed - I think the best scenario for the Brewers between now and the deadline is for those two clubs to tread water in the standings by beating each other up.  If either of them really gets on a roll and makes up 3-4 games in the standings for the division lead before the deadline, they could turn into last minute buyers.

Longterm, both could benefit from selling at the deadline, too - I'd rather see them stand pat or do some sort of confused buy/sell retooling at the deadline that doesn't make them dramatically better now or in the future.

[HarryDoyle]

Welp, mlb.com is slurping up De La Cruz again, headlining their website for a harder throw.

https://www.mlb.com/news/elly-de-la-cruz-throws-99-8-mph-infield-assist

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Don't look now, but the Cubs are playing really good baseball. Still 6 out in the division, but only 4.5 out of that last WC spot. They have the best run differential in the division.

Ultimately, I don't that bullpen is good enough to lock down a playoff spot. But it certainly doesn't look like full-on "sell" mode on the north side.

Fangraphs has the Brewers at 77% to make the playoffs and about 70% to win the division. Should be favorites, but the Cubs do have the weakest remaining schedule.

[Playing Catch]

I think the Cubs are pretty good.

I'm going to take a shower now.

[Frisbee Slider]

Cubs have Cardinals, Reds, Braves and Mets the next four series. That should be a good test for Chicago.

[kestrel79]

Going to be a close race all the way to the end between 4 teams pretty cool.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Don't look now, but the Cubs are playing really good baseball. Still 6 out in the division, but only 4.5 out of that last WC spot. They have the best run differential in the division.

Ultimately, I don't that bullpen is good enough to lock down a playoff spot. But it certainly doesn't look like full-on "sell" mode on the north side.

Fangraphs has the Brewers at 77% to make the playoffs and about 70% to win the division. Should be favorites, but the Cubs do have the weakest remaining schedule.

If I'm not mistaken, the Brewers have the weakest remaining SOS in the NL Central. Which will only get weaker after this weekend.

https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

[MoreTrife]

8 minutes ago, kestrel79 said:

Going to be a close race all the way to the end between 4 teams pretty cool.

You're not referring to the Cardinals as the fourth team are you??