NL Central Discussion

[igor67]

It wouldn't hurt for the Pirates to lose a game here again either, so it's kind of a win either way for use on that front.

[brewers888]

I would say 83 wins takes this division for sure and it really could be won with as few as 78 wins. 

[wiguy94]

Cardinals just swept by the Pirates and now head to Texas to play 3 against the red hot Rangers. They have the worst record in the NL right now.

[brooks_quichenick]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Cardinals just swept by the Pirates and now head to Texas to play 3 against the red hot Rangers. They have the worst record in the NL right now.

[brewers888]

After watching this weekend I think this division race is over. The Reds belong in AAA as does every other team we have to face. The Cardinals are more likely to be drafting in the top 5 than challenging for the division title and no other team has any talent so the Brewers should win the division even if they only win 82-83 games and could even win it if they finish below .500 which probably won't happen with all these games against these divisional teams which are all horrendous. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

For all the handwringing about the Brewers' recent scufflling, the Brewers currently have (checks notes) the 4th best record in the NL.  I honestly don't see too many teams in the NL being dominant enough to go on a tear and win 100+ games.

They're sitting just fine at the moment, particularly with all the injuries they've already been dealing with.  NL teams like the Cardinals, Padres, Phillies, Giants, and Mets are in much more trouble than the Crew.  

This year's deadline could be a weird one, as teams like the Mets, Phillies, and Padres who have gone all in to try and win a title may be faced with a decision on whether to try and keep buying or sell - and some teams with marginally good rosters but limited payrolls (Brewers, Marlins, Pirates) likely won't be willing to pony up a king's ransom in prospects if they become buyers.  If the Padres don't figure things out I don't see how Preller lasts the year as GM.

[82brewcrew82]

The Cardinals are currently 9 games under .500 and in last place by 2.5 games in the NL central which Features the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.  Their current hot stretch has them with the worst record in the NL and the fourth worst record in all of baseball.  Despite that current hot stretch (7-3 in their last 10) the have managed to gain one whole game on the Brewers over that period (6-4 in their last 10) leaving the Cardinals 7.5 games back

Posted the above on May 16th.  Not much has changed since then despite the "here come the Cardinals" pearl clutching.  The Cardinals were then, and remain, one of the wost teams in the game.

[brewers888]

6 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

The Cardinals are currently 9 games under .500 and in last place by 2.5 games in the NL central which Features the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates.  Their current hot stretch has them with the worst record in the NL and the fourth worst record in all of baseball.  Despite that current hot stretch (7-3 in their last 10) the have managed to gain one whole game on the Brewers over that period (6-4 in their last 10) leaving the Cardinals 7.5 games back

Posted the above on May 16th.  Not much has changed since then despite the "here come the Cardinals" pearl clutching.  The Cardinals were then, and remain, one of the wost teams in the game.

There is the potential for all four of the Brewers competitors in this division to all be drafting in the top 10 next year, the division is really that bad.

[MrTPlush]

I’m a little tired of the “Omg the NL Central is a joke” and people honestly thinking it is possible or even believing a sub .500 team could win the division.

The Brewers are on pace for 88 wins. A team isn’t winning it sub .500. I would say it is likely a team wins it with 88-90 wins. Maybe as little as 86 wins…but I really doubt it. I’d bet on a team winning it with 95+ over sub .500.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

There is the potential for all four of the Brewers competitors in this division to all be drafting in the top 10 next year, the division is really that bad.

The AL Central seems worse? 

[wiguy94]

16 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

The AL Central seems worse? 

AL Central is definitely worse than the NL Central.

[nate82]

The NL East is starting to compete with the NL Central in being bad.  The Braves are the only good team in that division everyone else are just a whole mess. 

[YelichPosse]

I would even go as far as saying the only division clearly ahead of all others is the AL East. Every other division has 2 teams above .500, one at, and 2 below at varying degrees.  Minus the AL Central which is indeed worse than the NL Central. We are seeing a ton more parity across the board with the new schedule. 

[82brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

I’m a little tired of the “Omg the NL Central is a joke” and people honestly thinking it is possible or even believing a sub .500 team could win the division.

The Brewers are on pace for 88 wins. A team isn’t winning it sub .500. I would say it is likely a team wins it with 88-90 wins. Maybe as little as 86 wins…but I really doubt it. I’d bet on a team winning it with 95+ over sub .500.

Is there actually someone that is saying a sub .500 team will win the division?

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Is there actually someone that is saying a sub .500 team will win the division?

Yes @brewers888 has said it multiple times.

[82brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Yes @brewers888 has said it multiple times.

Ah, I have that poster on my ignore list.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

The NL East is starting to compete with the NL Central in being bad.  The Braves are the only good team in that division everyone else are just a whole mess. 

600M in payroll between the Mets and Phils to be a collective 5 games under 0.500 just about 40% into the season...in terms of expectations, the NL East has far underperformed the NL Central.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

600M in payroll between the Mets and Phils to be a collective 5 games under 0.500 just about 40% into the season...in terms of expectations, the NL East has far underperformed the NL Central.

I think with the new rules the Mets 1st pick will again be in the Comp A pick even if they finish under .500 this year. 

[DR28]

Reds have called up #1 prospect in Baseball and legit future superstar Elly De La Cruz... Reds youth movement is in full swing now.

Won't be long and CES will be up as well.

[Jopal78]

On 6/4/2023 at 7:37 PM, 82brewcrew82 said:

Is there actually someone that is saying a sub .500 team will win the division?

The Brewers high water mark was April 19th when they were nine games over. The last month and a half they’ve played losing baseball.

Is this group as currently constructed going to suddenly start playing better than .500 baseball? I doubt it. Maybe if Woodruff, Adames and Miley return healthy and productive.
Further, if you’re the GM, come July do you burn prospects to add talent to this group in July? Like last year, maybe some players on the periphery but it’s probably not worth the cost to add difference makers, so who the Brewers have now is most likely who is going to need to shoulder the load. 
 

Otherwise if they improve their level of play to go .500 from here on out they’d end up with 83 wins. Pittsburgh is in the exact same boat as the Brewers and obviously the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals would have to elevate their game even further. 
 

Thus I do think it’s possible a team with a losing record could win the NL Central this year. 

[Playing Catch]

I'd be really curious what the projections would be if hypothetically, the Brewers would have, and would have had, 100 wRC+ level production batting in the heart of the order at DH rather than the putrid performance of Voinker.

I have to believe that alone (which would not be cost prohibitive to procure) would make this offense look waaaayy better.

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I'd be really curious what the projections would be if hypothetically, the Brewers would have, and would have had, 100 wRC+ level production batting in the heart of the order at DH rather than the putrid performance of Voinker.

I have to believe that alone (which would not be cost prohibitive to procure) would make this offense look waaaayy better.

Brewers current wRC+ is 87. If you swapped the 242 DH PA at 55 WRC+ for 242 DH PA at 100 wRC+, the Brewers team wRC+ would be about 92 so still not good at all. 

DH is obviously a huge issue but it is far from the only issue.

C - 108 wRC+ (6th)

1B - 97 wRC+ (19th)

2B - 87 wRC+ (18th)

SS - 67 wRC+ (28th)

3B - 116 wRC+ (6th)

LF - 104 wRC+ (13th)

CF - 98 wRC+ (20th)

RF - 52 wRC+ (30th)

DH - 55 wRC+ (28th)

We are in the bottom 3 at 3 different positions and 2 of those positions are positions you are supposed to get excess offensive value from (DH and RF). I guess the silver lining is Tyrone, Winker, Voit, (and soon Turang) are not longer on the roster and they were the biggest culprits to the poor numbers at those positions.

[Playing Catch]

Oh, certainly DH isn't the only issue, but it is the only position that derives 100% of value from offensive production.

[YelichPosse]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers current wRC+ is 87. If you swapped the 242 DH PA at 55 WRC+ for 242 DH PA at 100 wRC+, the Brewers team wRC+ would be about 92 so still not good at all. 

DH is obviously a huge issue but it is far from the only issue.

C - 108 wRC+ (6th)

1B - 97 wRC+ (19th)

2B - 87 wRC+ (18th)

SS - 67 wRC+ (28th)

3B - 116 wRC+ (6th)

LF - 104 wRC+ (13th)

CF - 98 wRC+ (20th)

RF - 52 wRC+ (30th)

DH - 55 wRC+ (28th)

We are in the bottom 3 at 3 different positions and 2 of those positions are positions you are supposed to get excess offensive value from (DH and RF). I guess the silver lining is Tyrone, Winker, Voit, (and soon Turang) are not longer on the roster and they were the biggest culprits to the poor numbers at those positions.

Well , when you put it that way....

YUCK.

[82brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The Brewers high water mark was April 19th when they were nine games over. The last month and a half they’ve played losing baseball.

Is this group as currently constructed going to suddenly start playing better than .500 baseball? I doubt it. Maybe if Woodruff, Adames and Miley return healthy and productive.
Further, if you’re the GM, come July do you burn prospects to add talent to this group in July? Like last year, maybe some players on the periphery but it’s probably not worth the cost to add difference makers, so who the Brewers have now is most likely who is going to need to shoulder the load. 
 

Otherwise if they improve their level of play to go .500 from here on out they’d end up with 83 wins. Pittsburgh is in the exact same boat as the Brewers and obviously the Cubs, Reds and Cardinals would have to elevate their game even further. 
 

Thus I do think it’s possible a team with a losing record could win the NL Central this year. 

Noted