Rumor: Matt Arnold Comments on Trade Deadline and Brewers Approach

[sveumrules]

Some deadline related quotes from Arnold today on MLB.com via Adam McCalvy…

“Look, we want to be competitive here in 2023,” Arnold said. “We will be opportunistic to try and improve this team where we can, responsibly, I think we have a lot of good players here.”

On the topic of maybe dealing Burnes or Adames…

“We’re not looking to move any of those guys. They’re huge parts of our team right now… I mean, I’m sure we’ll get phone calls on these guys, because they’re very good. But that’s not something we’re considering.”

View full rumor

[BrewerFan]

Seems unlikely they'd make another trade like Hader(but more consequential) after seeing how last year went, but also just because there are so many possible starting pitchers available. Giolito, Cease, Bieber, Webb, Rodriguez....and then some guy who thinks he can pitch AND hit and be successful at it. 

So seems unlikely we'll get that Godfather offer to even make it worth considering. 

Meanwhile, any offer for Adames is going to be for a ~2 WAR player rather than the ~4 WAR player he actually is.

Seems as likely now that the Brewers let him play it out until Free Agency than they trade him(maybe a QO if he has a big year next year).

 

I did read one funny line while reading one deadline list of players who should/could be traded;

Quote

Grichuk, an impending free agent, missed the start of the season recovering from sports hernia surgery. He's played well since returning, hitting the ball harder than usual and posting would-be career-best walk and strikeout rates. We don't think he'll maintain those marks (his contact rate is actually worse than it was last season), but he needn't in order to be a useful platoon player. Since 2021, he's generated a higher wOBA versus southpaws than Manny Machado, George Springer, J.D. Martinez, and José Abreu, among others. Granted, you can't trust Grichuk to face a right-handed pitcher in any kind of meaningful situation, but he has his uses all the same. The Rockies exist in their own reality -- one writer's preseason bold prediction was that they'd make a deadline trade -- so who knows, maybe they'll extend him. Potential fits: Rangers, Brewers, Yankees

I guess a team that trades a future HOF 3B on a...pretty good deal, then eats I believe it was 80M of it(with the option picked up) and doesn't get back one elite prospect...that line is fitting. STL ended up getting him for ~22M a year. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Every win the Brewers log, the less likely a Burnes/Adames trade happens. The next three weeks will be very interesting.

[Frisbee Slider]

We should have an office pool for which middle relievers we acquire at the deadline. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

50 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

We should have an office pool for which middle relievers we acquire at the deadline. 

Given the team's recent track record, I'm kind of hoping none, especially if we are dealing pitching. We don't have enough upside pitching to keep trading it at the deadline for middling relievers.

[sveumrules]

With Woodruff, Ashby, Lauer, Uribe?, Gasser?, there is some intriguing depth of arms in house that could help post-deadline.

Would definitely prefer to focus whatever resources on upgrade(s) to the offense.

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

With Woodruff, Ashby, Lauer, Uribe?, Gasser?, there is some intriguing depth of arms in house that could help post-deadline.

Would definitely prefer to focus whatever resources on upgrade(s) to the offense.

Agreed. I won't cry if they acquire a reliever but most of the focus and effort should be on shoring up the offense, first base being the lowest-hanging fruit I see.

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

With Woodruff, Ashby, Lauer, Uribe?, Gasser?, there is some intriguing depth of arms in house that could help post-deadline.

Would definitely prefer to focus whatever resources on upgrade(s) to the offense.

Not as intriguing, but Justin Wilson has started his rehab & I assume will be in Biloxi or N'ville before long.

I would like to see them roll with what they have in the system bullpen-wise, but it's hard to imagine them NOT picking up some arm from somewhere.

[Austin Tatious]

Arnold needs to be on a short leash.  For those of you who reflexively and blindly support every move the franchise makes, the problem you will have is Mark knows he needs to be on a short leash.   He’s not going to be here indefinitely if we don’t turn it around in terms of roster construction.  

For example, you come back with a guy like Rowdy Tellez as your first baseman and you have to answer for that.   He’s not even a Chris Carter.  He came up yesterday with two on in a tie game against a struggling reliever and was feeble again.  Then you lose the game.   You can take simplistic data like WAR all day and that’s an actual loss you would have been able to flip around with a simple single.  It happens too frequently.  When you have subpar guys like that, you lose difference-making games.  

Sadly, the fan base understands this and you can’t be having the fans outsmarting the GM.  It’s like when we drafted Corey Ray.  The scouting director was gone because it was so obviously a stupid pick.   

The comedy is the genius fan brigade who will defend Rowdy to death because data like “batting average and RBI do not matter” and then you have the guy with a horrific hit tool squander a winnable game.  

You can move Yelich to first in time and make room for an OF of Frelick, Chourio and Wiemer with Mitchell in the mix, but that doesn’t help you now when you have good pitchers who aren’t under contract forever.  And the organization’s decision to stubbornly and incorrectly eschew corner infielders in the draft and foreign market has really caught up with them.  Arnold has had a prominent position and is part of all of that.  

There are too many baseball men who are really bright to keep chugging along if things don’t start getting better in terms of roster construction.   

[Playing Catch]

19 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Arnold needs to be on a short leash.  For those of you who reflexively and blindly support every move the franchise makes, the problem you will have is Mark knows he needs to be on a short leash.   He’s not going to be here indefinitely if we don’t turn it around in terms of roster construction.  

For example, you come back with a guy like Rowdy Tellez as your first baseman and you have to answer for that.   He’s not even a Chris Carter.  He came up yesterday with two on in a tie game against a struggling reliever and was feeble again.  Then you lose the game.   You can take simplistic data like WAR all day and that’s an actual loss you would have been able to flip around with a simple single.  It happens too frequently.  When you have subpar guys like that, you lose difference-making games.  

Sadly, the fan base understands this and you can’t be having the fans outsmarting the GM.  It’s like when we drafted Corey Ray.  The scouting director was gone because it was so obviously a stupid pick.   

The comedy is the genius fan brigade who will defend Rowdy to death because data like “batting average and RBI do not matter” and then you have the guy with a horrific hit tool squander a winnable game.  

You can move Yelich to first in time and make room for an OF of Frelick, Chourio and Wiemer with Mitchell in the mix, but that doesn’t help you now when you have good pitchers who aren’t under contract forever.  And the organization’s decision to stubbornly and incorrectly eschew corner infielders in the draft and foreign market has really caught up with them.  Arnold has had a prominent position and is part of all of that.  

There are too many baseball men who are really bright to keep chugging along if things don’t start getting better in terms of roster construction.   

Wow. That's a lot of bile-soaked red meat for Blighty, 888 and others to feast on!

"reflexively and blindly support every move"
"simplistic data like WAR"
"simple single"
"fans outsmarting the GM"
"obviously a stupid pick"
"The comedy is the genius fan brigade who will defend Rowdy to death because [counting stats] don't matter"
"horrific hit tool"
"move Yelich to first"
"stubbornly and incorrectly eschew corner IFers in the draft and foreign market has really caught up with them"

As one of those who are probably in the camp of obsequious Arnold defenders, I may as well comment. I think I'll start with this. Baseball is hard. Hitting a baseball is hard. Finding players that hit baseballs better than others is hard. I support most of the moves that this front office has made because most of their moves have worked out. Not all of them, but most of them.

Coming into the season, any GM in baseball would think it was reasonable to expect a 28-year old Rowdy to replicate his above average offensive production from 2022, including finishing 2nd on the team with 89 RBIs (including a team-leading 35 home runs). They would also believe it reasonable to want to keep that player, as Tellez is on an inexpensive contract and already on the roster. This does not equate with defending Rowdy to death, nor does it suggest that Rowdy's first half stats have been good enough. They haven't been. He's been really bad, and has had a big role in the Brewers' really bad offense. Arnold should look to improve his 1st base options if they want to stay in the hunt.

Ray Montgomery SHOULD have been fired for picking Ray instead of waiting all the way until the 4th round to pick... Corbin Burnes.

While I am intrigued by the possibility that Yelich could one day play a serviceable 1st base, this possibility is not necessarily a slam dunk option. For all we know, Yelich is a butcher in the infield. And why would the Brewers want to make room for Chourio since it is so obvious that the foreign market has really caught up with them?

Any finally, Arnold has only been responsible for roster construction for 8.5 months. We have no idea what opinions he had on the decisions of Stearns. For all we know he hated every good move Stearns made, or perhaps, he was the mastermind behind every good move. For all we know, Stearns wanted Esteury Ruiz to be the Brewers starting CFer so bad that he traded Hader for him despite Arnold's misgivings, so Arnold quickly moved on Ruiz to get William Contreras. We just don't know.

[Jim French Stepstool]

My favorite was "simple single"😄. Reminds me of the beer keg at 2nd base, potato salad in the dugout, and the unlimited arc.

Drafting too many middle INF is a valid criticism, but at this point needs to play itself out before it can be deemed as some sort of crippler to future seasons. Tellez being what he is in 2023 certainly has hurt.

They DID draft corner guys (Alex Binelas & Xavier Warren) rather high in recent seasons. One was dealt for a decent season from Hunter Renfroe. The other looks like a miss so far.

[Playing Catch]

20 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Drafting too many middle INF is a valid criticism

I don't mind at all when they draft shortstops, as in, typically, long, lean, athletic, big armed shortstops. But I don't understand the value of drafting 2B-only guys (Robert Moore, Dylan O'Rae), as those players are just as limited defensively as a big, burly first baseman.

[Austin Tatious]

On 7/6/2023 at 11:41 AM, Jim French Stepstool said:

My favorite was "simple single"😄. Reminds me of the beer keg at 2nd base, potato salad in the dugout, and the unlimited arc.

Drafting too many middle INF is a valid criticism, but at this point needs to play itself out before it can be deemed as some sort of crippler to future seasons. Tellez being what he is in 2023 certainly has hurt.

They DID draft corner guys (Alex Binelas & Xavier Warren) rather high in recent seasons. One was dealt for a decent season from Hunter Renfroe. The other looks like a miss so far.

You may be a really sharp guy.  But pretending that Tellez is the answer doesn’t help the discussion.  He is a losing player.  He’s what you call a second division player.  

[Austin Tatious]

On 7/6/2023 at 10:32 AM, Playing Catch said:

Wow. That's a lot of bile-soaked red meat for Blighty, 888 and others to feast on!

"reflexively and blindly support every move"
"simplistic data like WAR"
"simple single"
"fans outsmarting the GM"
"obviously a stupid pick"
"The comedy is the genius fan brigade who will defend Rowdy to death because [counting stats] don't matter"
"horrific hit tool"
"move Yelich to first"
"stubbornly and incorrectly eschew corner IFers in the draft and foreign market has really caught up with them"

As one of those who are probably in the camp of obsequious Arnold defenders, I may as well comment. I think I'll start with this. Baseball is hard. Hitting a baseball is hard. Finding players that hit baseballs better than others is hard. I support most of the moves that this front office has made because most of their moves have worked out. Not all of them, but most of them.

Coming into the season, any GM in baseball would think it was reasonable to expect a 28-year old Rowdy to replicate his above average offensive production from 2022, including finishing 2nd on the team with 89 RBIs (including a team-leading 35 home runs). They would also believe it reasonable to want to keep that player, as Tellez is on an inexpensive contract and already on the roster. This does not equate with defending Rowdy to death, nor does it suggest that Rowdy's first half stats have been good enough. They haven't been. He's been really bad, and has had a big role in the Brewers' really bad offense. Arnold should look to improve his 1st base options if they want to stay in the hunt.

Ray Montgomery SHOULD have been fired for picking Ray instead of waiting all the way until the 4th round to pick... Corbin Burnes.

While I am intrigued by the possibility that Yelich could one day play a serviceable 1st base, this possibility is not necessarily a slam dunk option. For all we know, Yelich is a butcher in the infield. And why would the Brewers want to make room for Chourio since it is so obvious that the foreign market has really caught up with them?

Any finally, Arnold has only been responsible for roster construction for 8.5 months. We have no idea what opinions he had on the decisions of Stearns. For all we know he hated every good move Stearns made, or perhaps, he was the mastermind behind every good move. For all we know, Stearns wanted Esteury Ruiz to be the Brewers starting CFer so bad that he traded Hader for him despite Arnold's misgivings, so Arnold quickly moved on Ruiz to get William Contreras. We just don't know.

That’s a lot of mental masturbation and no discernible point being made other than undercutting your post by admitting you’re obsequious.  That’s not a good thing.  In any event, very hard to read all of those non-sequiturs, excuses, straw men, wild speculation and general superiority complex.  Just because you’re blindly positive doesn’t make you smarter than everyone else.  

PS  90% of my posts are positive so the snarkiness is unnecessary.  I want the Brewers to do well.   

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

You may be a really sharp guy.  But pretending that Tellez is the answer doesn’t help the discussion.  He is a losing player.  He’s what you call a second division player.  

I re-read my post, trying to find an insinuation that Tellez is "the answer". Couldn't find anything.

[Austin Tatious]

48 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I re-read my post, trying to find an insinuation that Tellez is "the answer". Couldn't find anything.

Wait? What? What was the whole point of the potato salad diatribe if it wasn’t a defense of Tellez?????  Tread carefully.   

[CheeseheadInQC]

On 7/5/2023 at 2:33 PM, Austin Tatious said:

And the organization’s decision to stubbornly and incorrectly eschew corner infielders in the draft and foreign market has really caught up with them.  Arnold has had a prominent position and is part of all of that. 

This repeated argument doesn't quite irk me as much as the "Packers never drafted Rodgers a first-round wide receiver" thing, but it is up there. The fact is, there have been 18 players who baseball reference lists as first or third basemen taken in the first three rounds of the last three drafts combined, with the Brewers taking one (Binelas), putting them average or above without even counting Warren, who was optimistically announced as a catcher. Similarly, while the two highest bonus members of the Brewers' 2022 international signing class were announced as shortstops, they were shortstops in the same way Jake Gatewood was a shortstop, no one thought it would last. Low and behold, a year and change later, they are mostly playing first and third base in Arizona after being moved off shortstop in favor of a guy announced as a catcher at the time of his signing. You could also make a good case that two of the Brewers top 10 prospects are currently playing third base for their respective teams (depending on where you place Adams in the rankings, who was basically the equivalent of a fifth-rounder bonus wise last year).

The Brewers have struggled to get production from those positions for sure, but their asset allocation for them in recent years is very much in line with league norms. If you wanted Wagner or Melendez or Lochlear over Brown last year, fine. I was rooting a little bit for Wagner myself (although he has been more solid than spectacular so far). But the Brewers in the last few years are pretty normal.

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks for the post.  To clarify, I was referring to first round picks.  I think drafting up the middle makes sense but it’s getting to foaming at the mouth levels.  The mistake is that third base is athletically one of the most challenging positions to find.  

Black has been playing third and maybe that puts an end to the problem so let’s see.  I tend to doubt he can play league average defense there but you never know.  The bat looks solid.

I think a SS draftee who profiles to third over time is a perfectly valid way to do it.  

As for first, drafting a profile like Fielder might be a hard sell to their current thinking but he was a shrewd pick.  

To be clear, I’m very happy with Tod Johnson. He’s been a massive upgrade in the draft room.  I have been pounding the table that the farm system that he has stocked is much better than national rankings have been suggesting.   I was extremely critical of the prior drafting regime and the results bore that out.   Tod is drafting well and I’d hate to lose him.  While I like the up the middle emphasis at the top of the draft, I don’t want it to the exclusion of corner infield.  Third base is an athletically challenging spot and first base could use a special bat.  These are still premium skills.   As deep as our outfield is in terms of prospects. I’d love to see the infield catch up.  

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

As for first, drafting a profile like Fielder might be a hard sell to their current thinking but he was a shrewd pick.  

There just hasn't been a Prince like bat available in the draft at 1B.  Torkelson would be the closest and he has sucked for the Tigers. 

[Austin Tatious]

4 minutes ago, nate82 said:

There just hasn't been a Prince like bat available in the draft at 1B.  Torkelson would be the closest and he has sucked for the Tigers. 

That’s fine.  I was just making an illustration.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

Wait? What? What was the whole point of the potato salad diatribe if it wasn’t a defense of Tellez?????  Tread carefully.   

That was a ridicule of the "simple single" phrase, how it reminded me of slowpitch softball. It had nothing to do with defending Tellez.

[Austin Tatious]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That was a ridicule of the "simple single" phrase, how it reminded me of slowpitch softball. It had nothing to do with defending Tellez.

Douchebaggery aside., it’s absolutely stupid to ridicule other fans from expecting major league hitters from executing.  Listen to yourself.  These aren’t fat middle aged men in a beer league.  Good God.  Get it together, man.   Function in the real world.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

22 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

 

Black has been playing third and maybe that puts an end to the problem so let’s see.  I tend to doubt he can play league average defense there but you never know.  The bat looks solid.

 

I haven't seen a ton of Blacks' work defensively but from what I've learned I'm a little skeptical too. Too early to say but it wouldn't shock me if he gets tried at 1B at some point.

[Austin Tatious]

4 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That was a ridicule of the "simple single" phrase, how it reminded me of slowpitch softball. It had nothing to do with defending Tellez.

And yes, dying on that hill is in effect a choice to defend Tellez.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

14 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

Douchebaggery aside., it’s absolutely stupid to ridicule other fans from expecting major league hitters from executing.  Listen to yourself.  These aren’t fat middle aged men in a beer league.  Good God.  Get it together, man.   Function in the real world.  

The strange thing is, I think we agree with each other. There's nothing "simple" about hitting a single. If it was, this would BE like slowpitch softball.

"HIT A SINGLE!!!!! IT"S SIMPLE!!!!! No, it isn't. That's what was being ridiculed.