Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[homer]

I'm sure the club has talked about Hiura at length. I would love to know their reasoning for keeping him in AAA. 

[Jopal78]

18 minutes ago, homer said:

I'm sure the club has talked about Hiura at length. I would love to know their reasoning for keeping him in AAA. 

Need players to fill out a roster and they had to pay him anyways?

[Jim French Stepstool]

47 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

But then, what would we have to debate about? 😉

Hiura & Aaron Rodgers are fighting it out for first-ballot status in the "Most Local Attention Given to Someone Not Even on the Local Teams' Roster" HOF.

[homer]

21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Need players to fill out a roster and they had to pay him anyways?

I guess I need to rephrase...

what was the reasoning behind not calling him up? 

[rickh150]

Sickening to watch our offense and know there is a player that had a last year OPS better than the large majority last year and this year. He is given no shot even though he is paid $2.2 at a position(s) of obvious weakness which requires no defense.  And he continues to hit well.

And while I’m at it, hugely disappointing to see Toro thrown back down as well. It’s like a popularity contest where Adames cannot be taken out  of the top of the lineup and Hiura/Toro cannot get a fair shake. Winker is coming back too… and Rowdy carries his weight in the dugout too. 

And get Frelick in a normal contact/OBP spot… not #4 or 5.

[rickh150]

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Need players to fill out a roster and they had to pay him anyways?

No and no, Didn’t have to pay any player 2.2 mil to play AAA. 
Nontender in offseason would have made the most sense if he was this low on the totem pole.

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, homer said:

I guess I need to rephrase...

what was the reasoning behind not calling him up? 

You'll never get the accurate answer even with asking that question.  The answer is simply because Hiura's minor league options were hastily burned in prior years when he slumped, the 60 game COVID season added a whole year of service time to Hiuras career and didn't afford an option for him to figure things out in AAA that season, and the Brewers were averse to DFA-ing veteran DH options who didnt produce and are much more expensive to make room on the 40 man for Hiura again.

 

The Canha trade is very puzzling to me with all this, too.  It's once again valuing defensive versatility at the DH spot over an internal option who can at minimum match the offense and could actually play the same defensive positions as Canha (even though Hiura should just be a DH)

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The Canha trade is very puzzling to me with all this, too.  It's once again valuing defensive versatility at the DH spot over an internal option who can at minimum match the offense and could actually play the same defensive positions as Canha (even though Hiura should just be a DH)

And Toro down somewhat because of him… I’ll take Toro’s bat in the lineup now too. Toro hit extraordinarily well with limited at bats. Did nothing for a demotion, unlike about half dozen guys out there.

 

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, homer said:

I guess I need to rephrase...

what was the reasoning behind not calling him up? 

No, you really didn't. I think anyone not being obstinate understood what you were saying...even if they disagreed. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Sickening to watch our offense and know there is a player that had a last year OPS better than the large majority last year and this year. He is given no shot even though he is paid $2.2 at a position(s) of obvious weakness which requires no defense.  And he continues to hit well.

And while I’m at it, hugely disappointing to see Toro thrown back down as well. It’s like a popularity contest where Adames cannot be taken out  of the top of the lineup and Hiura/Toro cannot get a fair shake. Winker is coming back too… and Rowdy carries his weight in the dugout too. 

And get Frelick in a normal contact/OBP spot… not #4 or 5.

You combine all that with the fact that he DID change his swing and this is a guy who had a 60 grade hit tool and performed at a very high level already at the MLB level. 

There was a time when it was so stupid obvious...before the deadline, Winker at a ~560 OPS, Tellez with that OPS in the ~400 or 450 range over a couple month period. There was just no reason to not give him a chance(irrespective of the fact that he was DFAed and not claimed, that's not a permanent excuse to do nothing when you've got an OPS 60 points below the 2nd worst team at the very "position" Hiura would be playing). 

And this is a team who is CONSTANTLY taking players with his type of history and picking them up on the cheap, trying to see if they can get that version of them back. But when we have one of our own, literally no downside to giving him playing time other than if it doesnt' work, he's not on your AAA team to help out in the playoffs, they leave him down there.  

[Jake McKibbin]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

You combine all that with the fact that he DID change his swing and this is a guy who had a 60 grade hit tool and performed at a very high level already at the MLB level. 

There was a time when it was so stupid obvious...before the deadline, Winker at a ~560 OPS, Tellez with that OPS in the ~400 or 450 range over a couple month period. There was just no reason to not give him a chance(irrespective of the fact that he was DFAed and not claimed, that's not a permanent excuse to do nothing when you've got an OPS 60 points below the 2nd worst team at the very "position" Hiura would be playing). 

And this is a team who is CONSTANTLY taking players with his type of history and picking them up on the cheap, trying to see if they can get that version of them back. But when we have one of our own, literally no downside to giving him playing time other than if it doesnt' work, he's not on your AAA team to help out in the playoffs, they leave him down there.  

I think timing has definitely played a part this season too.. he was on fire, it was extra base hits every other game, really comfortable at the plate, and got injured at the worst possible moment and out for two months. Since then he has done okay, but isn't tearing down walls like he did early in the year. 

The timing of Winker getting injured and then Rowdy struggling at this point just didn't help him, but I can see two ways he gets with the club again.

 

1) He goes on fire again, with a 1.100 OPS in Nashville and gets the callup to be a regular DH if the Brewers aren't hitting by the end of August (i actually think Canha has been unfortunate BABIP wise and looked solid at the plate)

2) the Brewers have him for next year. if he finishes the season out strongly, with a .950 ish OPS and the Brewers offense is going well enough they don't want to waste their final usage of him (especially with Tellez coming back, would probably mean DFA-ing Santana), then they'll keep him there, keep working in the offseason, and have him start next season in the majors

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Call me crazy but I just want one shot to see this high leg-kick free Hiura in Milwaukee. Would hate to see this become a career turnaround adjustment somewhere else.

[BrewerFan]

53 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Call me crazy but I just want one shot to see this high leg-kick free Hiura in Milwaukee. Would hate to see this become a career turnaround adjustment somewhere else.

Yeah, this is all just silly. There have been so many times we've put Winker out there or Tellez with a two month run of a .450 OPS or whatever.

You're not bringing him back unless he earns a spot with the Brewers. They're not going through arbitration and paying him...probably a modest raise to ~3M unless you plan on playing him and why would they if they haven't this year when he's been in AAA when we've been just brutal at the plate. 

I guess it'll just be a emergency option if Canha gets hurt+Winker DFAed(which has to happen) and then Tellez keeps struggling or...who even knows by this point.

But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Hiura puts a .250/.330/.440 line next year wherever he goes. 

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Yeah, this is all just silly. There have been so many times we've put Winker out there or Tellez with a two month run of a .450 OPS or whatever.

You're not bringing him back unless he earns a spot with the Brewers. They're not going through arbitration and paying him...probably a modest raise to ~3M unless you plan on playing him and why would they if they haven't this year when he's been in AAA when we've been just brutal at the plate. 

I guess it'll just be a emergency option if Canha gets hurt+Winker DFAed(which has to happen) and then Tellez keeps struggling or...who even knows by this point.

But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Hiura puts a .250/.330/.440 line next year wherever he goes. 

I think it was @Mass Haaswho said something about because he was on the big league roster all of 2020, he cant elect minor league free agency next season as he would have been able to otherwise

As a result, the Brewers can keep him off their 40 man until next year and pay him $1.1 million

Once he's added to their 40 man this option will go however

[Jopal78]

14 hours ago, homer said:

I guess I need to rephrase...

what was the reasoning behind not calling him up? 

It should be painfully obvious at this point: there is something about his game that is unacceptable to the Brewers, and Hiura has been unable to correct or change it and it trumps whatever the metrics say.
 

The Brewers didn’t DFA, Hiura hoping he stuck around so they could call him back up again later after putting up some good AAA numbers. 
 

The Brewers moved on would have been fine with him leaving, but he needs to report to AAA to get that 2 million dollars. Simple stuff.

[homer]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It should be painfully obvious at this point: there is something about his game, the Brewers do not like and Hiura has been unable to correct or change it and it trumps the metrics.

Yes thanks. I would like to know what it is they don't like about his game. 

[Jopal78]

Just now, homer said:

Yes thanks. I would like to know what it is they don't like about his game. 

That would be a great question for one of the “journalists” who cover the team to ask. Put this thing to bed once and for all. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That would be a great question for one of the “journalists” who cover the team to ask. Put this thing to bed once and for all. 

Good luck. When have they ever badmouthed one of their own players?

I think the only reason they didn't outright release him is that the $2 million is a sunk cost, and perhaps they believed they may have been able to flip him for something of value this season. Perhaps they still could. It wouldn't surprise me to see a team make a deal for him before the season is over. 

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

That would be a great question for one of the “journalists” who cover the team to ask. Put this thing to bed once and for all. 

The biggest flaw is he's a streaky hitter with no recent consistent proof of MLB performance that can't play defense. Whether it's him, Winker or whoever, you're trying to work out who has the best shot to contribute. Personally I believe without the hand injury he'd have been called up given Winker's injury shortly after, and his outrageous form but that really scuppered things. He surely was ahead of Singleton at that point

Counsell is okay with one DH on the team, has no issue with it at all but the limited roster means you can really only afford one.

And i can't stress enough how at the trade deadline, Hiura wasn't tearing down trees, and hasn't since his return. If he does, this is an entirely different conversation, but he didn't show the slugging numbers he put up in April/May. When your game is based around slugging, that's not going to cut it.

As I said, a conversation before he got injured is a whole other discussion.

A conversation since, he hasn't been pushing it, with roughly league average OPS (I think AAA averages .850 OPS numbers atm? Very offense heavy leagues)

That being said he might be coming around. He's had 20 AB's in August, with two doubles, a home run and three strikeouts (15% K Rate) for a .350/.409/.600 line so far. Obviously incredibly SSS, but he did pop a couple of home runs on 26th and 28th July too.

Between 16th June and 25th July he hit just two home runs, that's not a Keston who will be called up

If he can get back to where he was pre injury, that's a very interesting conundrum however (He was hitting .331/.396/.678) and had reduced his strikeouts considerably

Hope that helps!

 

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Good luck. When have they ever badmouthed one of their own players?

I think the only reason they didn't outright release him is that the $2 million is a sunk cost, and perhaps they believed they may have been able to flip him for something of value this season. Perhaps they still could. It wouldn't surprise me to see a team make a deal for him before the season is over. 

Sure a team could need a warm body and get Hiura for “past considerations”. Otherwise, his trade value at this point is non-existent: he makes 3x the minimum salary, he can’t be optioned and after the  50 games left this season any team who has him, either has to tender him for ‘24 or let him go.

Most likely as has been the case all year, if the Brewers could facilitate his return to the majors with another team by releasing him they would have done so. 

[Jake McKibbin]

Further to that, here's his Nashville stats since returning from injury (147 plate appearances)

 

.278/.394/.442 for an .836 OPS

 

The OBP is fuelled by Hit by pitches, having walked 12 times and been hit on 10 occasions

It's really two different conversations, and you can't really want to bring him up when he's not hitting like he can. When he's ready, absolutely, but currently he isn't (though again may be working round to it)

One positive is he's struck out still at just a 21% clip over this time.

I do think like Frelick the injury may still have niggled at him, but we saw Frelick find his form really quickly when he was injury free, and it could be the same for Keston

That being said, here's a few numbers for comparison

 

Jon Singleton .976 OPS

Jahmai Jones .932 OPS

Luken Baker - 1.162 OPS - Got 19 at bats this season with the Cardinals, despite all of their struggles, with a .563 OPS

Luke Voit 1.035 OPS

Jake Cave 1.113 OPS

 

Does highlight some of the quality of pitching this season at triple A, and how it's not necessarily a guarantee of success

 

[Jake McKibbin]

5 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Sure a team could need a warm body and get Hiura for “past considerations”. Otherwise, his trade value at this point is non-existent: he makes 3x the minimum salary, he can’t be optioned and after the  50 games left this season any team who has him, either has to tender him for ‘24 or let him go.

Most likely as has been the case all year, if the Brewers could facilitate his return to the majors with another team by releasing him they would have done so. 

He will likely have more value based on the considerably reduced K rate in Nashville over the offseason as well as his salary being $1.1 million in the offseason, but we'll see!

I can see them giving him another shot as at least he has more trade value if he hits vs negligible loss if he doesn't and goes for nothing

Also quite possible next year is a slight transition year, in which case, he could have more of a chance for playing time. It's likely either he or Rowdy could be ferreted off this off season

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

He will likely have more value based on the considerably reduced K rate in Nashville over the offseason as well as his salary being $1.1 million in the offseason, but we'll see!

I can see them giving him another shot as at least he has more trade value if he hits vs negligible loss if he doesn't and goes for nothing

Also quite possible next year is a slight transition year, in which case, he could have more of a chance for playing time. It's likely either he or Rowdy could be ferreted off this off season

Im not an expert on the CBA but short of adding him to the 40 man roster tendering him a contract as an arbitration eligible player, Hiura would be a free agent at seasons end.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Im not an expert on the CBA but short of adding him to the 40 man roster tendering him a contract as an arbitration eligible player, Hiura would be a free agent at seasons end.

Usually you'd be absolutely correct! However apparently there's a twist in the tale as per @Mass Haas

 

Quote

So, initially Keston Hiura appeared on the initial post of this thread as one who would qualify for minor league free agency this fall. He debuted as a pro in 2017 and has played seven pro seasons, so easy-peasy, right?

Not so fast, as it turns out (since verified). Hiura's name has since been removed, with an odd twist. The Brewers actually control Hiura for 2024 as well (if they wish).

Here's why and how:

The one year Hiura spent entirely in the Majors (2020) does not count towards his minor league free agency. As such, the Brewers could retain Hiura on a minor league contract for 2024 at one-half of his $2.2 million salary (so $1.1 million, thanks easy math).

Now clearly, if Hiura is added to the 40-man roster (meaning called up to the 26-man roster in August or the 28-man roster in September), this oddity goes away. Because to send Hiura back to the minors, he'd have to be exposed to waivers, and could leave on his own if not claimed.

If Hiura is not called up by the end of the season, he'd be part of the organization this fall, including the Rule 5 draft in December. A team could claim Hiura and would have to keep him on the active roster for all of 2024. But Keston is out of options, so that's pretty much the case anyway. But Hiura on a $1.1 million salary seems rather appealing.

It seems like it'd be kind of a sneaky thing to do, not sure if Keston and his agent would appreciate it, but Hiura (and his .941 AAA OPS) has value, somewhere, to someone, including the Brewers.

NOTE: The only thing I have not confirmed is whether the $1.1M salary maintains as such if Hiura were to be called up to the big leagues at any point. I also wish I had an example for you of another MLB player who had been maintained this way.

I am hopeful a member of the beat can confirm with the front office, or a real transaction maven can confirm more specifics, but yeah, the drama about Hiura's status could linger.

[rickh150]

I thought Hiura was picked on last year. This year, it is off the charts and gets worse daily.   Stubborn with Hiura and really poor… really bad on how the DH is used on a daily basis.  

Even Toro. What are they looking for? He hit…. like a 1.222 OPS in a week of ABs.  Send him back.

Adames is the golden child who has the clubhouse aura and CC hardly likes pulling him out of the cleanup. Don’t make this guy mad…. Oooh.