Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not really. Almost all of those AAA #s came with the Mets, a bad team who declined to call him up in spite of his stats. Now, Voit is a free agent and hasn't even managed to latch on with another team. A lot like Hiura after the Brewers removed him from the 40 man after ST and nobody opted to place a claim on him...

Some players are AAAA players. I won't ever close the door on Hiura because he has the bat speed and the talent, but he's got major, major contact issues and I trust the Brewers' evaluation. 

Mets are in a rebuild.., traded old vets and playing younger players. We are in a pennant race…..apples and dry plums

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

So you are all in on whatever the Brewers decide to do with him… and hedging if he does well (“bat speed and TALENT”) and I told you so if he does poorly. Got it covered well.

It's not as "black and white" as you're trying to make it though. I've been fooled with Hiura too many times at this point. I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. That's the point. It's not about hedging my bets or "playing gotcha". 

Overall, I trust the Brewers' evaluation of the situation. This organization has earned the benefit of the doubt imo with their evaluation abilities. If they don't think Hiura is an upgrade to the point where it's worth rostering him, then I trust that appraisal. Hiura has already had plenty of opportunities to assert himself and become a mainstay on the MLB roster, including in 2020 and 2021 when they literally handed him a starting position and at the end of last season and ST this year. He failed each of those times. 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

Mets are in a rebuild.., traded old vets and playing younger players. We are in a pennant race…..apples and dry plums

Not earlier in the year when they were trying desperately to compete and stay in the race while their primary DH Daniel Vogelbach was faltering....Voit was absolutely tearing up AAA (even moreso than Hiura), yet they decided not to call him up.

[tmwiese55]

Voit is also 32 years old an no signs that he's changed anything that would be worthy of another chance in MLB, after he was given one, again, this year.  He's at the age where there is no upside and likelihood of improvement/change is very low.   The other guy is still very young where improvements/changes/adjustments still happen all the time. 

If Keston had made no changes to his approach/swing and continued to mash AAA like he has in the past I'd be more on the 'why would we expect anything different this time" view this poster has. However, he has made clear noticeable changes in his approach where it is logical to think it's possible for improvement at the MLB level.   Of course its also a large possibility he remains a low BA/high K guy with power that is frustrating and not quite good enough. But a marginal improvement on his contact is all that is needed to move him from fringe player to positive starter.   But really the main point is even his last 2 years of subpar performance is still better than the trash they've ran out at DH/1B this year.   IMO, once I saw here on the contract quirk for next year I think they're so close to the end of the season that they don't think its worth blowing that option.  Say he didn't have that injury maybe they'd have been open to giving him a chance with WInker and others being so bad, but once it got this late they might want to get to next year and try him as a very cheap DH (as opposed the the 8 mil one this year and last who both sucked).  

Also, after the deadline there isn't really as urgent of a need for him as there was say in June, they addressed it with trades. Canha is a competent hitter and will get tons of DH ABs. Rowdy is back and rightfully will be given a chance.  Rewind like 8 weeks and you had 0 good hitters at 1B/DH.  You now have one good-ish, one competent, and one you're hoping bounces back

I'm generally on the side that current management deserves the benefit of the doubt on things, but that doesn't mean they don't get things wrong. And when it comes to assessing offense and building a competent offense, let's just say their expertise is lacking on that side of the diamond.   When it comes to pitching, everyone should pretty much no comment though.

[BrewerFan]

24 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not earlier in the year when they were trying desperately to compete and stay in the race while their primary DH Daniel Vogelbach was faltering....Voit was absolutely tearing up AAA (even moreso than Hiura), yet they decided not to call him up.

And go see what the Mets fans and announcers were saying about Buck's stubbornness.

Again though...he DID get an opportunity with the Brewers and he wasn't a former 1st round pick they'd invested time and money in. 

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

 

If Keston had made no changes to his approach/swing and continued to mash AAA like he has in the past I'd be more on the 'why would we expect anything different this time" view this poster has. 

 

Not quite my perspective. My perspective is I see both sides and I honestly have no idea which one will transpire. It wouldn't shock me if Hiura suddenly looked like the 2019 version again (or something close to it) with the swing changes. It also wouldn't shock me if the changes accomplished little to nothing and he's the same replacement level player he's been since 2019. 

In the end, I'll be fine with whatever management decides simply because they have more information available than I do. We can't pretend Hiura isn't hampered by the fact that he's effectively limited to DH at this point. If Rowdy continues to falter, then you'll probably see me join the chorus with the rest of you, as there's really no other option for a power hitting DH and Hiura has always had the bat speed and QOC. 

[BrewerFan]

22 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Voit is also 32 years old an no signs that he's changed anything that would be worthy of another chance in MLB, after he was given one, again, this year.  He's at the age where there is no upside and likelihood of improvement/change is very low.   The other guy is still very young where improvements/changes/adjustments still happen all the time. 

If Keston had made no changes to his approach/swing and continued to mash AAA like he has in the past I'd be more on the 'why would we expect anything different this time" view this poster has. However, he has made clear noticeable changes in his approach where it is logical to think it's possible for improvement at the MLB level.   Of course its also a large possibility he remains a low BA/high K guy with power that is frustrating and not quite good enough. But a marginal improvement on his contact is all that is needed to move him from fringe player to positive starter.   But really the main point is even his last 2 years of subpar performance is still better than the trash they've ran out at DH/1B this year.   IMO, once I saw here on the contract quirk for next year I think they're so close to the end of the season that they don't think its worth blowing that option.  Say he didn't have that injury maybe they'd have been open to giving him a chance with WInker and others being so bad, but once it got this late they might want to get to next year and try him as a very cheap DH (as opposed the the 8 mil one this year and last who both sucked).  

Also, after the deadline there isn't really as urgent of a need for him as there was say in June, they addressed it with trades. Canha is a competent hitter and will get tons of DH ABs. Rowdy is back and rightfully will be given a chance.  Rewind like 8 weeks and you had 0 good hitters at 1B/DH.  You now have one good-ish, one competent, and one you're hoping bounces back

I'm generally on the side that current management deserves the benefit of the doubt on things, but that doesn't mean they don't get things wrong. And when it comes to assessing offense and building a competent offense, let's just say their expertise is lacking on that side of the diamond.   When it comes to pitching, everyone should pretty much no comment though.

I agree with all of this. And if the contract quirk is the reason, then that makes sense. If they're maybe anticipating a higher payroll next year and they do plan on keeping Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, then a DH/1B who makes 1.1M is perfectly logical. 

 

And this is a very well run organization...but they're not flawless. My main point of contention in this particular thread is how the arguments are constantly evolving and contradictory and also filled with strawmen.

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

And go see what the Mets fans and announcers were saying about Buck's stubbornness.

Again though...he DID get an opportunity with the Brewers and he wasn't a former 1st round pick they'd invested time and money in. 

Bottom line (and the point I'm trying to get across) is that I'm not using AAA stats to draw any conclusions about Hiura because a) he's always produced in AAA and b) there are a multitude of examples out there of players who crush AAA pitching yet are not so good against MLB pitching. 

If Rowdy doesn't start hitting soon, then I'll probably join you in calling for Hiura. But I don't think him not getting an opportunity so far this year is quite the travesty some of you have made it out to be. In fact, if he had had a good spring training in the first place instead of completely sucking, he would probably still be on the major league roster and we wouldn't even be having this discussion. 

[tmwiese55]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not quite my perspective. My perspective is I see both sides and I honestly have no idea which one will transpire. It wouldn't shock me if Hiura suddenly looked like the 2019 version again (or something close to it) with the swing changes. It also wouldn't shock me if the changes accomplished little to nothing and he's the same replacement level player he's been since 2019. 

In the end, I'll be fine with whatever management decides simply because they have more information available than I do. We can't pretend Hiura isn't hampered by the fact that he's effectively limited to DH at this point. If Rowdy continues to falter, then you'll probably see me join the chorus with the rest of you, as there's really no other option for a power hitting DH and Hiura has always had the bat speed and QOC. 

Fair.  But to make a general joke on it, then why be on a baseball message board if you're take is that management is always right.  I know I took that to the extreme hyperbole side so don't take it is a big attack or anything.  Just in general saying, we're here to backseat GM, that's the point of it in a way.

And yea, if we were Atlanta or LAD, TX type team just raking then why bother with a gamble on him.  But with the trash options they ran out all year it's a very questionable decision with the roster rule quirk being the one thing lingering over it that seems to make sense.   However, if I had my guess they just let him go in the offseason and are done with him.  Which, I would guess by playing all the guys they chose to give chances over him like Winker/Voigt cost them several runs scored. I wouldn't guarantee it, but I know which side I'd bet.   Which would mean they made a mistake, an understandable one and of course no one gets everything right. So not like anyone needs to be fired for it, but there's nothing wrong with acknowledging mistakes. 

[AKCheesehead]

1 hour ago, torts said:

How is this still going????

It's kind of like the Centralia coal mine fire.  Kind of fascinating, honestly.

[BrewerFan]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Bottom line (and the point I'm trying to get across) is that I'm not using AAA stats to draw any conclusions about Hiura because a) he's always produced in AAA and b) there are a multitude of examples out there of players who crush AAA pitching yet are not so good against MLB pitching. 

If Rowdy doesn't start hitting soon, then I'll probably join you in calling for Hiura. But I don't think him not getting an opportunity so far this year is quite the travesty some of you have made it out to be. In fact, if he had had a good spring training in the first place instead of completely sucking, he would probably still be on the major league roster and we wouldn't even be having this discussion. 

Not sure I've ever inferred it was a "travesty." 

And you realize you're talking about spring training stats/performance while dismissing AAA stats/performance, right?

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Not sure I've ever inferred it was a "travesty." 

And you realize you're talking about spring training stats/performance while dismissing AAA stats/performance, right?

Those things are in no way mutually exclusive. To make the OD roster due to his replacement level output since his rookie season, Hiura needed to have a big spring. He did the exact opposite and consequently failed to make the roster while being removed from the 40 man entirely. At the same time, a big spring training would have meant little as for his actual production in the majors had he made the roster. Just as his AAA stats mean little as to what we can expect from him in the majors. 

You may not have literally used the term "travesty", but the way you and certain others are arguing it it's hard to escape the conclusion that you do view it in that way. 

[Never Outhustled]

4 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

We know he was injured with right forearm inflammation. That's why he initially went on the IL and is the type of injury that tends to affect your hitting ability. Nothing "blind" about that, though you could argue to what extent it actually affected him. But judging by how his numbers completely tailed off starting in early June, I would say it affected him quite a bit. 

On the other hand your Hiura argument relies on AAA stats and a .765 OPS (Rowdy's was better in a much larger SS) that comes with the huge caveat of a 42% K rate. If you want to go further back for MLB stats, it doesn't help your argument either, because Hiura was absolutely terrible at the plate in 2021 and 2020.. There's more "blind faith" in declaring Hiura to be a surefire upgrade right now. 

Rowdy's OPS was just 2 points higher last year, while enjoying better platoon opportunities. Give Hiura the same ratio of at bats versus lefties and righties as Rowdy enjoyed, and he out hit him pretty easily.

Brewers confidence in Rowdy is clearly eroding, as he was missing in action the last 2 days versus rhp. 

I wonder if Rowdy is going back to the IL?

[Never Outhustled]

1 hour ago, torts said:

How is this still going????

Weirdest question of the thread. We're near the bottom of the league in OPS, have been terrible at DH, and have a solid Major League OPS player rolling at AAA.

 

It would be weird NOT to discuss this. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Never Outhustled said:

Rowdy's OPS was just 2 points higher last year, while enjoying better platoon opportunities. Give Hiura the same ratio of at bats versus lefties and righties as Rowdy enjoyed, and he out hit him pretty easily.

Brewers confidence in Rowdy is clearly eroding, as he was missing in action the last 2 days versus rhp. 

I wonder if Rowdy is going back to the IL?

Except that's not how stats work....You can't just assume Hiura would have continued to hit at the same rate had he gotten more ABs against RHP when there's a ton of evidence (namely, his 42% k rate) that he wouldn't have. 

Rowdy didn't DH today because Caratini is Burnes' personal catcher and they need to get Contreras' bat in the lineup regardless. I doubt he's going back to the IL considering CC was ready to have him pinch hit for Wiemer in the 10th. 

[Never Outhustled]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except that's not how stats work....You can't just assume Hiura would have continued to hit at the same rate had he gotten more ABs against RHP when there's a ton of evidence (namely, his 42% k rate) that he wouldn't have. 

Rowdy didn't DH today because Caratini is Burnes' personal catcher and they need to get Contreras' bat in the lineup regardless. I doubt he's going back to the IL considering CC was ready to have him pinch hit for Wiemer in the 10th. 

Contreras had been great versus LHP, but has been pedestrian versus RHP.  If Rowdy was good, he'd had started today.

[Never Outhustled]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except that's not how stats work....You can't just assume Hiura would have continued to hit at the same rate had he gotten more ABs against RHP when there's a ton of evidence (namely, his 42% k rate) that he wouldn't have. 

Rowdy didn't DH today because Caratini is Burnes' personal catcher and they need to get Contreras' bat in the lineup regardless. I doubt he's going back to the IL considering CC was ready to have him pinch hit for Wiemer in the 10th. 

Maybe you don't know this, but Hiura has been better versus righties throughout his college, minor league, and Major League careers. Also, if you lower his exposure versus LHPs, his OPS goes up. If Rowdy is forced to face more LHPs, his OPS goes down. 

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Contreras had been great versus LHP, but has been pedestrian versus RHP.  If Rowdy was good, he'd had started today.

Wrong. Contreras is one of the few bats on this team you pencil in regardless of the pitcher. 

[Never Outhustled]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Wrong. Contreras is one of the few bats on this team you pencil in regardless of the pitcher. 

Lol,  his OPS versus RHP is worse than the overall OPS of Hiura or Rowdy last year,  and significantly worse than there's versus RHP. Wild Bill would likely benefit from an occasional day off.catching is tough work.

[Brewcrew82]

19 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Maybe you don't know this, but Hiura has been better versus righties throughout his college, minor league, and Major League careers. Also, if you lower his exposure versus LHPs, his OPS goes up. If Rowdy is forced to face more LHPs, his OPS goes down. 

I did know that actually, but thanks for the reminder. Did you know that Hiura's OPS vs. RHP last year was significantly higher than it had been the last three seasons AND was down precipitously from what it had been when he was hitting HRs on an unsustainable rate of fly balls . Goes hand in hand with the fact that you can't just extrapolate Hiura's stats against RHP and assume he would have produced at the same rate when the evidence is that he wouldn't have.

On the contrary, it seems like you're struggling understand basic statistical concepts.

[Never Outhustled]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

I did know that actually, but thanks for the reminder. Did you know that Hiura's OPS vs. RHP last year was significantly higher than it had been the last three seasons AND was down precipitously from what it had been when he was hitting HRs on an unsustainable rate of fly balls . Goes hand in hand with the fact that you can't just extrapolate Hiura's stats against RHP and assume he would have produced at the same rate when the evidence is that he wouldn't have.

On the contrary, it seems like you're struggling understand basic statistical concepts.

Any comment on reducing exposure versus lefties, or increased exposure versus lefties for Rowdy? 

[Brewcrew82]

13 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Lol,  his OPS versus RHP is worse than the overall OPS of Hiura or Rowdy last year,  and significantly worse than there's versus RHP. Wild Bill would likely benefit from an occasional day off.catching is tough work.

Of course, he's not as good against RHP. But you still throw him out there as often as you can (which CC has done), not just because he's got an .801 OPS overall, which is what really matters and which is second highest on the team, but because he plays defense at a high level, which Rowdy and Keston do not.  

Rowdy hasn't been hitting. Contreras is our second best overall hitter, but was unavailable to C today. Not difficult to figure out why he would DH over Rowdy. If he doesn't DH on Friday against a righty, then things obviously would appear different. 

[FanOutWest]

I get it, this is baseball and baseball is all about finances and profit margins.  Burnes saw it firsthand during arbitration when only $800K difference that management saved.  Question is at what real expense since Burnes wasn't too happy? If the sole reason keeping Huira down in AAA is for the mentioned loophole to cut his salary 50% next year that's business.  Can't control it, just deal with it.  My concern is what message management is sending?  Here you have a player who has done everything management has asked, worked and improved in almost all aspects of his game (yeah I know AAA doesn't "count"), worked on not 1 but 4 positions with success (yeah 2 total errors so he is TERRIBLE - how many players have trouble playing 1 position?).  All this and his big reward is not given a chance for 2023, and look we are decreasing your salary by 50% to boot in 2024!.  I really hope I am wrong since not a good way to build team morale.   I look at my job and if I bust my butt, outproduced everyone else at my level, and when promotions come around and get passed over and told of my pay decrease as a reward......yeah.  But again, this is baseball, he is a professional, he is paid to produce and your feelings are secondary, control what you can.  Again I hope I am wrong and he gets called up soon, he deserves it. 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

Any comment on reducing exposure versus lefties, or increased exposure versus lefties for Rowdy? 

What's your point? Because my point is that his overall OPS (and OPS against RHP for that matter) would have likely continued to go down regardless of his exposure levels because 1) he was homering on fly balls at an unsustainable rate 2) he was striking out at an unsustainable rate and 3) balls he put into play were not being put out at an unsustainable rate. 

Extrapolation, which you seem to want to do, doesn't work.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, Never Outhustled said:

Weirdest question of the thread. We're near the bottom of the league in OPS, have been terrible at DH, and have a solid Major League OPS player rolling at AAA.

 

It would be weird NOT to discuss this. 

Here, here!

And his MLB OPS in 2022 is often forgotten. They give him regular at bats… and they definitely were not regular ( hit in every spot in order, had days off of 5 and 7 in September when others say he had a shot there, rarely had consecutive days batting at same position), he could hit 30+ HRs;

OPS was .765, OPS+ 114…. 

They are nutso with him not getting a shot, and it is now getting to a point where they almost hope he stops hitting, crazy as that sounds.