Keston Hiura has a .984 OPS in Nashville

[rickh150]

.973 OPS in July

.816 OPS in August

and this is not this season….

or career minor league…

It’s career MLB. 

 

[brooks_quichenick]

This forum could use an "ignore thread" feature. Good lord

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

This forum could use an "ignore thread" feature. Good lord

I don't know why this thread hasn't been locked. It's 23 pages of the same argument over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

[rickh150]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I don't know why this thread hasn't been locked. It's 23 pages of the same argument over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

Don’t waste your time then…what is it to you?  
The Hiura debate hasn’t stayed the same…. Just getting more and more absurd not to give him a shot as his numbers surge.

[Team Canada]

2 hours ago, brooks_quichenick said:

This forum could use an "ignore thread" feature. Good lord

I mean, it's called don't click on the thread.

[Never Outhustled]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I don't know why this thread hasn't been locked. It's 23 pages of the same argument over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again.

You have the option of skipping reading it. It's like you're own personal ignore button.

[Never Outhustled]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What's your point? Because my point is that his overall OPS (and OPS against RHP for that matter) would have likely continued to go down regardless of his exposure levels because 1) he was homering on fly balls at an unsustainable rate 2) he was striking out at an unsustainable rate and 3) balls he put into play were not being put out at an unsustainable rate. 

Extrapolation, which you seem to want to do, doesn't work.

Unsustainable for other players. He's literally had those rates before. He's rare in so many ways. 

[torts]

9 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Don’t waste your time then…what is it to you?  
The Hiura debate hasn’t stayed the same…. Just getting more and more absurd not to give him a shot as his numbers surge.

Someone send this thread to mark A

[torts]

Keston is a minor leaguer, shouldn't this be in the minor league section?  If he's not added to the 40 man on Sept 1, can this thread be moved as he's not a major league player?  Threads are moved for lesser reasons.  I'd rather see article threads than this one bumping itself 

[Playing Catch]

I think the thread should simply be renamed "BREWERS DH WOAH SOLVDD"

[wiguy94]

11 hours ago, rickh150 said:

The Hiura debate hasn’t stayed the same…. Just getting more and more absurd not to give him a shot as his numbers surge.

Are you sure about that? Seems pretty cyclical to me. Here’s the order.

1. Hiura has a good game 

2. You post about his good game and how insane it is that Hiura isn’t a Brewer

3. Someone talks about his AAA numbers being irrelevant because he’s always hit there

4. You bring up his 2022 MLB numbers as a counter argument

5. Someone argues about the unsustainability of his 2022 numbers

6. Argument eventually fades until another good Hiura game then back to #1.

[wiguy94]

If we want to talk tangible reasons Hiura might not have gotten the call look no further than his chase and whiff rates before August (August numbers aren’t updated but will probably stay pretty similar as his K rate and swinging strike rates have actually jumped up this month)

Before August he had a 32.7% chase rate and 30.3% whiff rate. Those would both be 23rd percentile in the MLB which wouldn’t be entirely problematic if he could maintain those rates in the MLB. The issue is those rates always spike in the MLB as the quality of pitchers is night and day compared to AAA. 

 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If we want to talk tangible reasons Hiura might not have gotten the call look no further than his chase and whiff rates before August (August numbers aren’t updated but will probably stay pretty similar as his K rate and swinging strike rates have actually jumped up this month)

Before August he had a 32.7% chase rate and 30.3% whiff rate. Those would both be 23rd percentile in the MLB which wouldn’t be entirely problematic if he could maintain those rates in the MLB. The issue is those rates always spike in the MLB as the quality of pitchers is night and day compared to AAA. 

Also since the trade deadline, the Brewers have a 105 wRC+ from the DH position despite rocking a comically low .250 BABIP so the production there hasn’t been a problem this month after some additions improved the depth of the team.

[Playing Catch]

I think this thread is a proxy for the larger argument between posters that want to criticize an organizational decision, but feel like the "defenders" of the organizational decision put too much trust in the decision-makers, and that bothers them.

As one of the "defenders" of management's decisions, I feel like the Hiura situation comes down to my believing that there are "known unknowns," about why Hiura hasn't been promoted. If the Front Office was able to candidly explain what their criteria were, then perhaps all of us would have stronger arguments.

Who knows? If I were privy to that privileged information, perhaps I would totally disagree with management.

[SeaBass]

Meanwhile, the Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 games, have scored 6 or more runs in their last 5 games, swept 3 of 4 series and are 13 games over .500.

I don't understand the angst. Since the AS break the Brewers have one 4 game losing streak (3 of those against the Braves) and one 3 game losing streak against the Dodgers. Beyond that the Brewers haven't lost back to back games since July 4th and 5th.

None of this screams, "We need Keston Hiura stat!"

[TURBO]

This thread is just like politics.  Doesn't matter what is said, no one is going to change their mind.

I don't understand how anyone can be against giving him a try, I mean, what we've done all season hasn't really worked, sooooo...

But like I said, people don't change their minds, everyone is prepared to die on their hill, so the fact that this is still going on is kind of funny to me.

[Guest]

13 hours ago, brooks_quichenick said:

This forum could use an "ignore thread" feature. Good lord

If we could auto ignore the articles I'd browse the site more!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

20 minutes ago, TURBO said:

This thread is just like politics.  Doesn't matter what is said, no one is going to change their mind.

I don't understand how anyone can be against giving him a try, I mean, what we've done all season hasn't really worked, sooooo...

But like I said, people don't change their minds, everyone is prepared to die on their hill, so the fact that this is still going on is kind of funny to me.

I'm not against giving it a shot. I mean, what could it hurt? I guess I just wouldn't expect much of an improvement over what we're getting out of the DH spot. 

I fully expect Keston to be playing somewhere else next year. Honestly, I'm surprised he's even still Brewer property. It's become pretty obvious that they no longer see him as part of the future.

[Fear The Chorizo]

26 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Meanwhile, the Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 games, have scored 6 or more runs in their last 5 games, swept 3 of 4 series and are 13 games over .500.

I don't understand the angst. Since the AS break the Brewers have one 4 game losing streak (3 of those against the Braves) and one 3 game losing streak against the Dodgers. Beyond that the Brewers haven't lost back to back games since July 4th and 5th.

None of this screams, "We need Keston Hiura stat!"

This thread really started early last summer, when Hiura's last MiLB option was burned so the Brewers could call up Connor Sadzeck to give them an extra bullpen arm for a handful of games before the AS Break, and earlier that season by putting Hiura on the Opening Day roster despite also paying McCutcheon to be the primary DH and then not giving Hiura regular playing time against RHP when nobody else was hitting, either.  That July demotion for Sadzeck really stuck out, because Hiura was OPS-ing over 1.000 in the 12 games leading up to it.  The move made zero baseball sense and was done entirely because other position players that were in Milwaukee didn't have options remaining and the Brewers always want to carry a billion relievers - so instead of DFA-ing others who weren't hitting at the time they picked the guy who was more or less carrying them at the plate during that stretch to go back down.

At this point, the Brewers have gotten average DH production in recent weeks, and the trade for Canha has helped that - but I don't get why the Brewers just didn't call up Hiura internally instead of making that trade.  His production in August strongly suggests that's a very reasonable position to take.  The Brewers wound up having to clear a 40 man roster spot anyway to bring Canha into the mix, so it's not just about Hiura not currently being on the 40 man.  The only explanation is they prefer Canha's middling defense at corner OF and 1B positions as an added bit of roster flexibility to fill the primary DH role, despite having a gameday roster that currently has 4 other OFs and now 2 other 1B on it.  

The collection of roster moves with Hiura compared to other young players and even moreso to non-core veteran players who haven't hit at the MLB level is the reason why this thread has as much life to it as it does - Why hasn't Wiemer been sent down to AAA at any point this season to try and get going offensively and potentially add another season of MLB control?  Turang was sent down for a bit, and as soon as he showed improvement at the plate was back up in Milwaukee.  Why has Tyrone Taylor gotten extended leashes to find his multiweek hot streaks and stay on the roster when the Brewers are currently loaded up with young OFs who provide good defense?  Why has Winker spent an entire season on the 40 man without being DFA'd despite zero MLB production when he also can't play defense or stay healthy?  Couple that with seeing a 26-27 yr old former 1st round pick hitting 0.320 with 22 HRs in 77 AAA games, and Hiura turns into a flashpoint for larger frustration with how the organization manages its MLB roster with hitting being a much lower priority than pitching, defense, baserunning, and apparently defensive versatility.

[SeaBass]

19 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

At this point, the Brewers have gotten average DH production in recent weeks, and the trade for Canha has helped that - but I don't get why the Brewers just didn't call up Hiura internally instead of making that trade.

I think it's obvious. Canha draws walks, Hiura doesn't. Canha has a career OBP just shy of .350. Had a 122 OPS+ last season and had a 101 OPS+ with the Mets before the trade this season. If he can get back to that 100-ish number with the Brewers even better, he's not that far off in a small sample.

I don't hate Hiura, I was all for using him to replace Winker much earlier on, I think he just got injured at the exact wrong time, a time when I think they may have finally have given him his chance. But I also don't think that the call ups the Brewers have made even before the trades are definitively wrong.

If this thread has a flaw, and I'm on the side that believes it does, it's that folks arguing for Hiura aren't acknowledging the logic in some of those other moves. I understand wanting your guy, there are logical arguments to support Hiura, I just think it's evolved into a more emotional mindset as time has gone on.

[Fear The Chorizo]

16 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

I think it's obvious. Canha draws walks, Hiura doesn't. Canha has a career OBP just shy of .350. Had a 122 OPS+ last season and had a 101 OPS+ with the Mets before the trade this season. If he can get back to that 100-ish number with the Brewers even better, he's not that far off in a small sample.

I don't hate Hiura, I was all for using him to replace Winker much earlier on, I think he just got injured at the exact wrong time, a time when I think they may have finally have given him his chance. But I also don't think that the call ups the Brewers have made even before the trades are definitively wrong.

If this thread has a flaw, and I'm on the side that believes it does, it's that folks arguing for Hiura aren't acknowledging the logic in some of those other moves. I understand wanting your guy, there are logical arguments to support Hiura, I just think it's evolved into a more emotional mindset as time has gone on.

Hiura's 2023 walk rate - 10%

Canha's 2023 walk rate - 10.5%

[SeaBass]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hiura's 2023 walk rate - 10%

Canha's 2023 walk rate - 10.5%

Hiura's 2023 MLB plate appearances - 0

Canha's 2023 MLB plate appearances - 376

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hiura's 2023 walk rate - 10%

Canha's 2023 walk rate - 10.5%

Hiura has a career 7.4 BB% in MLB.

2023 MLB league average is 3.3 BB/9.

2023 International League average is 4.8 BB/9.

[Fear The Chorizo]

5 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Hiura's 2023 MLB plate appearances - 0

Canha's 2023 MLB plate appearances - 376

So what about Hiura's 2023 AAA numbers suggests he is deserving of those 0 MLB at bats so far this season?

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hiura's 2023 walk rate - 10%

Canha's 2023 walk rate - 10.5%

First off Hiura's BB-rate in AAA is 8.4% not 10% and the league BB-rates are massively different.

Average MLB BB-rate in 2023 - 8.6%

Average International League BB-rate in 2023 with the tiny automated strike zone - 11.8% 

So Canha's 10.6% BB-rate is comfortably better than league average and Hiura's 8.4% BB-rate is well below league average.