Sell high on Wiemer at the deadline

[Scooterfletcher]

12 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Out of curiosity @Scooterfletcher, what do you want in return for Wiemer that improves the 2023 Brewers?

For instance, Hader and Grisham and a top 15 arm.

[rickh150]

3 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

For instance, Hader and Grisham and a top 15 arm.

Huh? For Wiemer?

[wallus]

I have read some of the most bizarre posts on this website the last few weeks. Is there something in the Bfan water?

[BrewerFan]

On 7/14/2023 at 10:23 PM, Scooterfletcher said:

After Mitchell’s end of 2022 and based on Frelick last year and Chourio top standing, every poster would have put Wiemer fourth of those four going into the year.   What about dangling him at the deadline instead of top prospects ?

I can assure you, every poster would NOT have had Wiemer 4th. I was a very big fan of Wiemer. I thought he needed more time in AAA as he's had a bit of a tendency to start slow, then pick it up.

This is pretty much about as badly as I thought Wiemer could hit. I didn't know he's be an elite CFer(I thought he'd be a competent one and an elite RFer). But no, Mitchell would have been my 4th by a mile. He's a lefty...which is normally a bonus, but for this team Wiemer's RHed bat is a plus. But beyond that, Wiemer has been healthy, Mitchell has not. Wiemer has more upside than the other two advanced bats(and any bat other than Chourio). He could realistically be a .900+ OPS guy despite hitting .250...and if he hits .250, it'll likely come with 30+HRs, 20+SBs and a very nice OBP as he's always walked at a high rate. 

 

Get his BABIP up...and that alone should have him at a VERY valuable .230. If by some change he hits ~.280 and walks at a ~12% rate, then we've got what we're HOPING Chourio develops into.

I'm high on Chourio obvious. Frelick is the safest of all of them as far as a hitter. Mitchell has tools and is carved like a greek god, but he doesn't have  Wiemer's power, his durability, he hits the ball on the ground and he struck out last year. People looked at his .832 OPS and thought he was great. He also had a OPS in the mid .600s about a week or so before the end of the season. Not to say he didn't also have value. Those were clearly the 4 prospects along with Turang last year.

But this isn't selling high on Wiemer and I definitely would have rather seen Mitchell(and of course Ruiz go...again, despite liking both). 

11 hours ago, markedman5 said:

It’s interesting that Turang doesn’t fair as well in this new metric………he sure looks great to me.

Adames also has had a great year in the field.

I know the stats tell more than the eye test...but I can't believe this one. Wiemer, he struggles going back on balls. Has taken a few poor routes. Plays I think he'll end up making. But really only minor issues making plays against the wall. 

Miller looks fine at 2B, Turang looks exceptional. Had to believe Miller is rated that much higher.

Willy's just Willy. I'll miss him when he's gone.

[sveumrules]

7 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I know the stats tell more than the eye test...but I can't believe this one. Wiemer, he struggles going back on balls. Has taken a few poor routes. Plays I think he'll end up making. But really only minor issues making plays against the wall. 

Miller looks fine at 2B, Turang looks exceptional. Had to believe Miller is rated that much higher.

Obviously defensive metrics are hinky  in the first place, but Outs Above Average is incompatible with my eyes.

Since 2021 the Brewers are at +112 DRS (2nd) and +60.5 UZR (2nd), but OAA has them dead nuts even at zero (16th).

OAA also has the Tigers at dead nuts even zero despite them being 125+ runs worse than the Brewers by both DRS (-28) and UZR (-65.4).

Based on how much the Brewers front office have prioritized defense over the years since Stearns & company arrived, I’m guessing their internal metrics align more closely with DRS.

[Playing Catch]

Dansby Swanson didn't have a wRC+ over 100 until his age 26 season, and that was Covid-2020.
Javier Baez didn't have a wRC+ over 100 until his age 25 season.
Nico Horner (a good Turang comp) not until his 3rd season, age 24.

Looking through stats for elite defensive CFers, though, (A) there's not many of them, actually, and (B) most of them hit better than Wiemer in their first year or two, so perhaps a hypothetical trade WOULD be selling high, but I don't think so. The eye-test shows one quite clearly, that he's still learning, and has a long ways to go to smooth out the rough edges of his game. He makes up for all of his shortcomings with sheer athleticism. He takes banana routes to fly balls, he throws from his heels instead of on the hop, his set-up and swing need a ton of refinement.

Had it not been for injuries to Mitchell, Taylor and Frelick, Wiemer may never have even been in a position to be an elite defensive CFer, and he would have been able to smooth out his offensive game in AAA this year.

I believe that Wiemer and Turang will both improve offensively, and be elite defensively for a long time. However, time will tell if they ever realize their potential to have a couple of all-star nods or gold gloves.

[brewcrewdue80]

He's healthy and on the ML field. Frelick is struggling worse than before his injury. And Mitchell hurt for the season who you shouldn't count on being really good til he's proved it. Wiemer is the only OF producing for the Brewers of the big 3. You waste him in a trade, and the other 2 are done due to post injury decline, the lost impact is too much. Lorenzo Cain didn't achieve a consistent 100+ OPS plus til his age 28 season, 4 seasons after his debut. 38.5 career BWar. You only move him if you're getting the 3+years of controlled position player who's producing today vs in the near future. Like a Luis Robert Jr. 

[rickh150]

Before the season, I would have the OF ranked…Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer. 
Now, I would still keep them the same. Perhaps Wiemer moves up at season’s end. I know each has had issues or injuries, but I still have high hopes for all, knowing I’d take 2 of 4 panning out as regulars on playoff quality teams.

[Sixtolezcano]

At this point I would currently rank the 4 OFs.

1.  Chourio - He is 19 and the youngest player in AA. His power, speed and defense is right on track. He needs to improve his OBP (BA) and will probably begin in AA and then move quickly to AAA in 2024. With a successful run in Nashville he may be called up to the MLB team late 2024, but more likely in 2025.

2. Wiemer - He will have 1 full year of MLB experience, which alone puts him above the other 3. He has exceeded expectations defensively and most likely moved over to RF permanently in his future. I think the Brewer FO planned on him playing in AAA most of this year with a possible call-up sometime this Aug. or Sep.  until Mitchell’s injury. With a year under his belt hopefully he can improve his OBP (BA) and SLG. He will likely be a starter on the MLB team in 2024.

3a. Frelick - So far he has had the most disappointing season. With his injury he lost 2 months of very important experience. He most likely would have been called up to the MLB team sometime in May or at the very least early June if he remained healthy. His hitting has been disappointing post-injury and most likely will remain in Nashville the rest of this season, unless injuries or roster turnover occurs over the remainder of this season. His performance during 2024 Spring Training will determine if he starts 2024 with the Brewers or Nashville.

3b.  Mitchell - He has lost an entire year in 2023 and his best chance to be a future starter at CF. Questions abound where he will end up as an MLB hitter and whether he can remain healthy for extended periods of time. What we know is he is the best of the 4 defensively and a possible future GG. He probably has the most questions of the 4 and I really don’t have a good idea how his future will turn out; starter or 4th OF.

[BrewerFan]

20 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Had it not been for injuries to Mitchell, Taylor and Frelick, Wiemer may never have even been in a position to be an elite defensive CFer, and he would have been able to smooth out his offensive game in AAA this year.

Well, that may be the case for Taylor and Mitchell, but Frelick was healthy when Wiemer got called up. The Brewers choose to replace Mitchell, a LHed CFer with Wiemer, not Frelick. Maybe the Brewers just knew Wiemer was this good of a CFer.

20 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

He takes banana routes to fly balls, he throws from his heels instead of on the hop, his set-up and swing need a ton of refinement.

He gets rid of the ball quickly...he can certainly take a crow hop and get the ball where it needs to go. I don't think the problem is he doesn't know how. He's got more than enough arm to get the ball to 2nd on a LD to the gap that he doesn't need to set himself and take a full wind hop. That's a pretty big strength. 

He takes some banana routes for sure...though he's looked good lately.

Only real issue is on going back on balls and MLB parks are quite a bit different from what are mostly cookie cutter MiLB parks.

I don't know if he needs to calm down his swing or not. I know all the pre pitch motion. That's all noise. I don't know if he needs to calm it down or not...the guy swings big all the time every time, but when the pitch is coming in, he usually ready and on time, he's just got a lot of swing and miss and pitch recognition issues. I don't know that a nice picture perfect Molitor type stance, swing is going to change anything. Maybe...he's also just young.

[BrewerFan]

13 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

3a. Frelick - So far he has had the most disappointing season. With his injury he lost 2 months of very important experience. He most likely would have been called up to the MLB team sometime in May or at the very least early June if he remained healthy. His hitting has been disappointing post-injury and most likely will remain in Nashville the rest of this season, unless injuries or roster turnover occurs over the remainder of this season. His performance during 2024 Spring Training will determine if he starts 2024 with the Brewers or Nashville.

Don't disagree with any of this other than...I think he still has every chance to make it up and be a part of the team in Sept. 

I was also pretty damn impressed with the throw he made tonight doubling a guy off 1B. I thought his arm was his weakness...

Anyway, he's got time to salvage this season and get to Milwaukee. I wouldn't write the whole thing off just yet. It's been a disappointing season, but young players rarely have linear paths on their ascent to the big leagues, and we should remember, this is just his second full season in our system. Chourio was "stalled out," and we should sell on him low just a week ago according to at least someone on here and more than a few people on Twitter. If Wilken is in the same place as him in 2 years, I'll be happy with that as well.  

If he can get hot and hit, the Brewers still have plenty of time to bring him up. He's held his own vs lefties this year as well...

 

[wiguy94]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Well, that may be the case for Taylor and Mitchell, but Frelick was healthy when Wiemer got called up. The Brewers choose to replace Mitchell, a LHed CFer with Wiemer, not Frelick. Maybe the Brewers just knew Wiemer was this good of a CFer.

Wiemer was called after Urias got hurt in game 1 not when Mitchell got hurt. Wiemer was called up to play RF with Anderson shifting back to 3B where Urias played in game 1. Frelick got hurt the same night Mitchell did so was not able to be called up then.

[Playing Catch]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Maybe the Brewers just knew Wiemer was this good of a CFer.

I absolutely think they knew he was their best defensive option, but I think they only intended him to be a stopgap before optioning him a month into the season (perhaps for Frelick). I was just stating his defensive curiosities to express that he's still very much scratching the surface of his ability, and that it's fair to expect his overall game to get better, while also acknowledging that his hitting has been a concern for those of us (like myself), that see a future all-star player in there somewhere.

It's certainly possible, and perhaps even probable, that this is what he is... an uber-athletic player that never hits enough to be a starter, and never takes instruction seriously enough to get better. I was a little concerned that when asked who he looks up to he said Hunter Pence, because Pence also did things, "his way".

Of course, maybe Brewers instructors have been coaching him to "be himself," and "allow [his] athleticism to play," I dunno.

I guess my overall point to that post was that while on first blush, it's crazy to think trading him would be "selling high," perhaps our Brewers-colored glasses have us more optimistic about his growth than we should be. But whatever, I love having him on my team so much. I'm convinced that he's gunna do something special every time he comes up to the plate, and every time a flyball heads in his direction.

[ELCABALLO45]

The thing that really sucks about the Turang and Wiemer situation is this.  

A lot of teams would love either one of these guys playing everyday, hitting 9th. They provide ++ defense and especially Wiemer has a chance to develop into a .900+ OPS guy. The problem is we have 2 of them playing everyday and in a line up where the guys before them are not having great seasons or are just not great hitters either. With that being said, zero chance and I mean zero I would think about trading him. He has a chance to be a multiple time all star. He reminds me of a more athletic Corey Hart, just with a better eye and better defense. He might not ever hit .270. But in the era of pitching we are in now, that’s ok. You don’t trade guys like that. IMO