Chafin to Brewers

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, TURBO said:

but what has he done lately?

I hope this works out for us, but I refuse to celebrate just because it was a Brewers move that was made,.

More proven and higher upside than Strzelecki. If he was having just as good of a season this year, we would have had to give up one of our top 10 prospects....

[StearnsFTW]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s 5 years of one guy for 20- 25 games from another 

And one guy has shown himself to be a hell of a lot better than the other.

If the Brewers DFA'd Strzelecki I wouldn't have batted an eye.

[BrewerFan]

11 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Strzelecki has been decent. Scuffled some this year. But he's kind of a dime-a-dozen type hard throwing, volatile reliever. The Brewers literally gave one of those away yesterday in Jake Cousins. 

Overall hard to find a whole lot to argue about here IMO.

Except they weren't hard throwing relievers. They were....lower 90s type relievers. If they were still throwing in the mid to upper 90s, they're probably both still in the pen, but something seems off with both of them

[Fear The Chorizo]

12 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

We don't like Strzelecki anymore, right?

Now that we traded him away, of course we do

Seems like a deal where both teams want a bit of a bullpen option reshuffle.  DBacks have been wilting since the AS break so it's kind of like a soft sell from their perspective in hopes Strzelecki can develop into something better than what he's shown as a high velo/inconsistent MLB reliever.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, TURBO said:

Ok, great, so that game doesn't count then?  Neato.

Never said it didn't. Context, man. It is key. 

[RobertCrawley]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Numbers this season for the two.

Strzelecki - 35.2 IP, 4.54 ERA, 4.05 xERA, -0.40 WPA

Chafin - 34.1 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.25 xERA, -0.70 WPA

Hopefully we get good Chafin as he hasn't been that great this year.

I don't think so, but the consensus here is otherwise.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Just now, TURBO said:

Ok, great, so that game doesn't count then?  Neato.

No one is arguing that. His numbers are what they are. It's simply pointing out the volatility of late-inning relief pitching, and taking into consideration that, while Chafin hasn't been as effective as he was in prior seasons, he's still been pretty dang good.

[RobertCrawley]

3 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

And one guy has shown himself to be a hell of a lot better than the other.

If the Brewers DFA'd Strzelecki I wouldn't have batted an eye.

Except that Strz has shown he can be highly effective at the MLB level. Those kinds of guys aren't just strolling around Brady Street. He might never be back again, but then again, he might become a mighty force. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Honestly, I'm just thrilled it isn't LHP Daniel Norris. My low bar has been honored. 

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I mentioned the need for another reliever weeks ago and was booed here. Given the state of the Brewers offense every single game is going to be 3-2 heading to the 7th. You can't just have 3 guys. Counsell wears guys out as we see with Peguro. I hope they add one more.

I don't know who "booed" you here, but I've said we need another reliever. I've seen probably 20 others say we need another reliever. There were threads about Hader that got I guess "booed" because they were kinda ridiculous, but even in those people agreed that it'd definitely help the Brewers.

 

I just can't stand the "I told everyone and you all didn't agree," posts....I hate them more when there is no merit to it and then that much more when you're not even proven right yet. 

[patrickgpe]

17 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Not seeing a huge upgrade here.

If they had faith in Peter s they wouldn’t have made this move. They needed a 2nd lefty reliever and didn’t have to give up anything of value. But no This isn’t a game changer 

[TheeAirbender]

At minimum it's a better fit for the team down the stretch, and I would venture to say there is way more likelihood in Chafin having good numbers here than Strez returning to form down the stretch. Who knows after this year but it's a risk I'd take.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, RobertCrawley said:

Except that Strz has shown he can be highly effective at the MLB level. Those kinds of guys aren't just strolling around Brady Street.

And so has Chafin....He's been even better and for a longer period of time. What's your point?

[RobertCrawley]

1 minute ago, patrickgpe said:

If they had faith in Peter s they wouldn’t have made this move. They needed a 2nd lefty reliever and didn’t have to give up anything of value. But no This isn’t a game changer 

At least it shows the Brewers are going for the playoffs this year. I'm up for that.

[BrewerFan]

Just now, Joseph Zarr said:

Honestly, I'm just thrilled it isn't LHP Daniel Norris. My low bar has been honored. 

I don't recall a trade I hated so vehemently and so immediately than the Norris trade. I definitely went with the, "I'm sure the Brewers know something I don't," rationalization, but while normally true, not so in this case. 

I did not like that Tristan Peters trade. Wasn't a huge fan of the Bush for Kelly trade, but...there was at least reason to think Bush was good.

 

[KeithStone53151]

Chafin has a $7.25M option for next year that is likely to be exercised as he's probably worth more than that unless he's horrendous down the stretch. He may not be a Brewer in 2024 but we can also exercise the option and trade him.

[Jopal78]

1 minute ago, StearnsFTW said:

And one guy has shown himself to be a hell of a lot better than the other.

If the Brewers DFA'd Strzelecki I wouldn't have batted an eye.

You’re literally comparing a 0.1 bWAR this year to a 0 bWAR pitcher. 
 

Not that I’m being a “contrarian” good for the Brewers, rather highlighting the glib dismissive comments overlooks the D’Backs are getting 5 years of a hard throwing reliever for 20 games or so of a guy who has been basically replacement level so far this year… that’s the value.

[RobertCrawley]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

You’re literally comparing a 0.1 bWAR this year to a 0 bWAR pitcher. 
 

Not that I’m being a “contrarian” good for the Brewers, rather highlighting the glib dismissive comments overlooks the D’Backs are getting 5 years of a hard throwing reliever for 20 games or so of a guy who has been basically replacement level so far this year… that’s the value.

Hard facts.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

You’re literally comparing a 0.1 bWAR this year to a 0 bWAR pitcher. 
 

Not that I’m being a “contrarian” good for the Brewers, rather highlighting the glib dismissive comments overlooks the D’Backs are getting 5 years of a hard throwing reliever for 20 games or so of a guy who has been basically replacement level so far this year… that’s the value.

Strzelecki "as a hard throwing reliever." That's funny. You do watch the games, right?

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't recall a trade I hated so vehemently and so immediately than the Norris trade. I definitely went with the, "I'm sure the Brewers know something I don't," rationalization, but while normally true, not so in this case. 

I did not like that Tristan Peters trade. Wasn't a huge fan of the Bush for Kelly trade, but...there was at least reason to think Bush was good.

 

TBF, they took pretty much an identical gamble with Drew Pomeranz in 2019 and it worked out spectacularly. 

[rickh150]

4 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Chafin has a $7.25M option for next year that is likely to be exercised as he's probably worth more than that unless he's horrendous down the stretch. He may not be a Brewer in 2024 but we can also exercise the option and trade him.

Likely to NOT be exercised…would be shocked if it was picked up. And no way we risk exercising the option to try and trade him.  Brewers do not operate this way for a lefty middle reliever.

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

You’re literally comparing a 0.1 bWAR this year to a 0 bWAR pitcher. 
 

Not that I’m being a “contrarian” good for the Brewers, rather highlighting the glib dismissive comments overlooks the D’Backs are getting 5 years of a hard throwing reliever for 20 games or so of a guy who has been basically replacement level so far this year… that’s the value.

First off, he has the option that you're missing that will be exercised. Second, reliever numbers are volatile as one bad outing can crush them...and you're ignoring a few years of consistently good/great results. 

It's fair to say people may be undervaluing Strezlecki a bit here, but dunking down the value of Chafin to go against the grain(which you tend to do) is not arguing in good faith. You know very well you are cherry picking here.

[StearnsFTW]

10 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

You’re literally comparing a 0.1 bWAR this year to a 0 bWAR pitcher. 
 

Not that I’m being a “contrarian” good for the Brewers, rather highlighting the glib dismissive comments overlooks the D’Backs are getting 5 years of a hard throwing reliever for 20 games or so of a guy who has been basically replacement level so far this year… that’s the value.

I'm thrilled the Dbacks saw the "value" you're seeing.

 

This is a slam dunk.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The Brewers picked up a guy who has been a solid late-inning MLB arm for a long time, and gave up a guy who has fallen so far down the bullpen pecking order that he was likely in danger of being DFA'd, yet there is consternation here. I don't get it.

The Brewers aren't giving up anything that is going to mortgage the future. They have shown to me quite adept and unearthing quality MLB relief arms, and Strez's velocity decrease this year was pretty concerning to his future success as a potential high-leverage relief option.

I mean, at worst, this is a "meh" deal IMO. 

[Bulldogboy]

8 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't know who "booed" you here, but I've said we need another reliever. I've seen probably 20 others say we need another reliever. There were threads about Hader that got I guess "booed" because they were kinda ridiculous, but even in those people agreed that it'd definitely help the Brewers.

 

I just can't stand the "I told everyone and you all didn't agree," posts....I hate them more when there is no merit to it and then that much more when you're not even proven right yet. 

Well all I will say is they definitely needed another bullpen option now hopefully Counsell will use him and get away from cookie cutting 7th 8th innings.