Brewers (Woodruff) vs White Sox (Scholten): 8/12/23, 6:10pm

[82brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, Bulldogboy said:

I'm not going back in time. I'm talking right now 2023. Nobody has yet to address winning a world series in the time period of having Burnes and Woodruff. Now if your answer is it cannot and will not be done say that. Making up stuff like Robert Gasser is going to make us forget Burnes and Ashby is the new Woodruff is nonsense. 

But that's the point.  Your using hindsight.  When Burnes and Woodruff were top 100, you didn't know they would be what they are.  Now we have what, five guys ranked higher than Woodruff ever was and Mis ranked higher than Burnes ever was, but no way those guys turn out to be anything at all?  And quit with the strawman arguments.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Please spell out the plan. I ask one last time or you just waiting for the next Robin Yount jersey give away?

I'm actually on the more aggressive side of this board. I think the Brewers should spend and trade more during this window.

But there just wasn't much available this deadline. That's the reality. I'm not particularly interested in Alonso and given his god-like status in Queens, the asking price was likely far outside what is reasonable, which is why he wasn't traded.

Could the Brewers be more aggressive? Yes. Should the Brewers be more aggressive? I think so. But this deadline wasn't conducive to that happening.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm certain that if the Brewers got randomly hot and win the WS in a couple months, there will be posters who still bash them for not winning a title convincingly enough.

This is a game threat on a night the Brewers won, right?

[Bulldogboy]

Just now, 82brewcrew82 said:

But that's the point.  Your using hindsight.  When Burnes and Woodruff were top 100, you didn't know they would be what they are.  Now we have what, five guys ranked higher than Woodruff ever was and Mis ranked higher than Burnes ever was, but no way those guys turn out to be anything at all?  And quit with the strawman arguments.

Every argument you have had is a strawman. I just asked a simple question and you have not answered it once. What is the plan to win a world series this year or next? That is the goal. 

[Jopal78]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Using NL for 18, 19, 21 because no universal DH

2018 NL SP Ranks - 7th in ERA, 12th in FIP

2019 NL SP Ranks - 9th in ERA, 10th in FIP

2021 NL SP Ranks - 2nd in ERA, 1st in FIP

2022 MLB SP Ranks - 12th in ERA, 11th in FIP

2023 MLB SP Ranks - 11th in ERA, 18th in FIP

So please Jopal tell me again how the Brewers have won on the back of SP in this competitive window.

I guess it’s all luck and moonbeams, then huh? A 1.000 OPS season from a career .842 hitter, etc. Ok then. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This is a game threat on a night the Brewers won, right?

The Brewers have won a game this season?

[Bulldogboy]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm actually on the more aggressive side of this board. I think the Brewers should spend and trade more during this window.

But there just wasn't much available this deadline. That's the reality. I'm not particularly interested in Alonso and given his god-like status in Queens, the asking price was likely far outside what is reasonable, which is why he wasn't traded.

Could the Brewers be more aggressive? Yes. Should the Brewers be more aggressive? I think so. But this deadline wasn't conducive to that happening.

Ok now we are getting somewhere. That's all I'm saying. Agree that losing Burnes and Woodruff put you in a worse place to do something like win a world series correct? So if we agree what are we going to do?

[wiguy94]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

I guess it’s all luck and moonbeams, then huh? A 1.000 OPS season from a career .842 hitter, etc. Ok then. 

Sad seeing people with nothing to argue on but feelings resort to all this bad faith. 

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Every argument you have had is a strawman. I just asked a simple question and you have not answered it once. What is the plan to win a world series this year or next? That is the goal. 

I have.  Develop talent and stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible..  That is the plan.  Others have spelled it out as well. Ignoring is bad doesn't make it not true and no, I've not used one single strawman.

[Bulldogboy]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Brewers have won a game this season?

Makes it more fun in my mind. Lol

[Bulldogboy]

1 minute ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

I have.  Develop talent and stay as competitive as possible for as long as possible..  That is the plan.  Others have spelled it out as well. Ignoring is bad doesn't make it not true and no, I've not used one single strawman.

That's the plan? Stay competitive? Like this season? Interesting. So a 2-4% chance of advancing past round one. Hmm.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Devin Williams really makes me question my "don't pay RP" motto. He's simply the best RP in the MLB. Just hard for me to see him ever run into sustained issues when a plus to double plus FB and an 80 grade changeup/screwball. It's probably way too late to sign him to an extension but man I wish we had.

I don't think he has a plus or even close to a double plus FB anymore though. When he came up, he would throw upper 90s up and then that change. Now he's 94-95 and it's certainly good enough, but I'm also looking at what we've just developed in Uribe, Payamps and Peguero and...as special as I think Williams Change is, that'd make it hard for me to pay him.

 

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

That's the plan? Stay competitive? Like this season? Interesting. So a 2-4% chance of advancing past round one. Hmm.

Yep, that is the Brewers world and it probably won't change.  The Dodgers and Braves will spend themselves into better odds.  The Mets tried and proved going down that path doesn't always work out, the Padres are another example.  As someone else pointed out, acquiring Soto, Hader and others only moved the Padres needle about 5% last year.

[BrewerFan]

35 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

You made a statement that was nonsensical. Gauging interest doesn't mean they for sure were going to deal him however my point is we have no idea what they could have made happen given what they have to deal. My question isn't going to get answered it appears so I will leave it for another day. I gather there is no plan outside of winning the central getting bounced and then watching Burnes and Woodruff pitch for the Yankees and Dodgers the next season. Not awesome but I guess that's all we can do according to everyone here. 

It's been answered. You didn't like the answer.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I need more data. Someone please direct me to the "Keep everyone, trade no one" thread. I somehow missed it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

That's the plan? Stay competitive? Like this season? Interesting. So a 2-4% chance of advancing past round one. Hmm.

You have to get to the first round, at which point a team has a minimum of a ~40% chance to advance. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm fairly certain 1 of Burnes/Woodruff will be in the Brewers opening day 2024 rotation, and I actually think it's a coinflip that both are...so we'll get to complain about the Brewers not doing enough to win with them under team control for at least another calendar year or so, even though the act of paying them via arbitration to keep them Brewers as long as their organization can expect to flies in the face of typical small market team operations - fun!

Another ironic thing - despite both of these guys being named Brewers' minor league pitcher of the year, neither were viewed as a surefire top of the rotation starter until several years into their MLB careers...and now they're suddenly once in a generation talents an organization can never recover from after they walk in free agency in a couple offseasons from now as 30 and 32 yr old pitchers, and the only way to try to capitalize on that is either throw hundreds of millions of dollars to them to stay or trade the entire farm system away for better hitters for the rest of 2023??  Some of this has to be the dearth of homegrown pitching talent many Brewer fans lived through during the Melvin years, and the thought that they won't ever have any other prospects that will turn into good MLB starters.  The cupboard is far from bare.

[Jopal78]

26 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

This year they are at…
RP: +6.79 WPA (1st)
Def; +47 DRS (2nd)
SP: 9.1 rWAR (10th)
Hit: 89 wRC+ (25th)

Last year it was…
Def: +53 DRS (7th)
Hit: 104 wRC+ (11th)
SP: 13.0 rWAR (14th)
RP: +1.68 WPA (16th)

In 2021 it was…
SP: 22.3 rWAR (2nd)
RP: +5.90 WPA (5th)
Def: +61 DRS (5th)
Hit: 98 wRC+ (19th)

2019 breakdown…
RP: +5.22 WPA (6th)
Hit: 102 wRC+ (12th)
Def: +26 DRS (13th)
SP: 9.9 rWAR (16th)

and 2018…
Def: +121 DRS (2nd)
RP: +5.65 WPA (6th)
Hit: 105 wRC+ (10th)
SP: 11.2 rWAR (15th)

What’s even the relevance of your metrics when you include the SP rWAR but not those for the hitters, then just select whichever metrics support your point (which is usually how it goes in discussions with metrics anyways)? 

 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't think he has a plus or even close to a double plus FB anymore though. When he came up, he would throw upper 90s up and then that change. Now he's 94-95 and it's certainly good enough, but I'm also looking at what we've just developed in Uribe, Payamps and Peguero and...as special as I think Williams Change is, that'd make it hard for me to pay him.

He definitely does have a plus to double plus FB and it's gotten better since 2020 not worse.

Avg velo is 94.2 but when you factor in his 100th percentile extension the perceived velo is 96.5 which is good FB velo.

His FB VAA is -4.3 degrees which is borderline elite VAA. 

His FB IVB is 17.1 inches which is good IVB

His FB H-Mov is -10.4 which is very good H-mov. 

So the total package is good velo when factoring in extension, borderline elite VAA, good IVB, and very good H-Mov. That's easily a plus pitch. 

2020 and 2021 his FB had a run value of -4. 2022 and 2023 his FB has a run value of +13. Taking off some velo but adding extension has improved his FB command while not impacting the perceived velo or movement profile. 

[Bulldogboy]

5 minutes ago, 82brewcrew82 said:

Yep, that is the Brewers world and it probably won't change.  The Dodgers and Braves will spend themselves into better odds.  The Mets tried and proved going down that path doesn't always work out, the Padres are another example.  As someone else pointed out, acquiring Soto, Hader and others only moved the Padres needle about 5% last year.

Ok. Like I said if that's your plan just say so. Good. I know where you stand. We can't compete. Nobody is available in trade that can help and they need to just hope they can draft and develop some more Cy young winners. Cool. Got it.

[Bulldogboy]

9 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

It's been answered. You didn't like the answer.

You mean the bites at the apple theory? 😒 

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, Bulldogboy said:

Ok. Like I said if that's your plan just say so. Good. I know where you stand. We can't compete. Nobody is available in trade that can help and they need to just hope they can draft and develop some more Cy young winners. Cool. Got it.

Not even close to what I said in terms of squiring talent,  but keep making things up.  I did say so, so has everyone else and this is EXACTLY how they got into this "window", by drafting and developing.  Glad you are starting to see the light.  I mean, who so you think drafted and developed the guys we have now.  This is the definition of nonsensical.

[sveumrules]

 

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

What’s even the relevance of your metrics when you include the SP rWAR but not those for the hitters, then just select whichever metrics support your point (which is usually how it goes in discussions with metrics anyways)? 

 

rWAR is the best metric to measure starting pitching because it is essentially just runs allowed and innings pitched converted to WAR. You want your starters to throw as many innings and allow as few runs as possible.

WPA is better than WAR for relievers because it accounts for leverage and context. 

I separated defense and hitting for the position player group instead of just using WAR because there has frequently been a stark difference between our position players hitting and fielding abilities.

I prefer wRC+ to runs scored for offense because it takes park and league run scoring environment into account.

Which metrics support your position?

[82brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

You mean the bites at the apple theory? 😒 

If by the "bites of the apple theory" you mean the draft and develop process that is responsible for this "window" you keep pining about, then yes.

[Jim French Stepstool]

29 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

 Hook deserves more credit than he gets for the pitching development. They will be ok. 

Keeping him from going somewhere else (if they can) is monumentally important.