MLBTR Arbitration Estimates

[sveumrules]

MLB Trade Rumors dropped their projected arbitration salaries for 2024, with the dozen eligible Brewers coming in at…

Brandon Woodruff: $11.6MM
Willy Adames: $12.4MM
Corbin Burnes: $15.1MM
Adrian Houser: $5.6MM
Rowdy Tellez: $5.9MM
Eric Lauer: $5.2MM
Hoby Milner: $1.7MM
Devin Williams: $6.5MM
Tyrone Taylor: $1.7MM
Bryse Wilson: $1.3MM
Joel Payamps: $1.7MM
Abraham Toro: $1.3MM

Would imagine that Rowdy, Lauer & Toro will be non-tendered at those numbers.

[wiguy94]

Yeah Rowdy and Lauer seem like easy non-tenders. I think Toro likely gets non-tendered because he no longer has options. Burnes, Adames, Williams are all guys who could get traded this offseason. Depending on the severity of Woodruff's injury, the Brewers could non-tender him or sign a 2-year deal with him to save money next year then have a bigger 2025 number with some incentives based on IP.

[nate82]

I think the Brewers may just offer Woodruff a 2-year extension depending on medicals instead of offering him arbitration.  It would allow them to bring him along slowly and at a lower amount per year.  Something like 2-years $20m extension instead of the arbitration number. 

The Brewers kept Hiura this year so I am not sure Tellez getting that much would be a non-tender.  Laurer and Toro will definitely be non tendered.

[TURBO]

Why would we not tender Toro at 1.3 million?  Seriously, why?  It's an honest question.

Cheap depth.

Rowdy and Lauer are goners.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, TURBO said:

Why would we not tender Toro at 1.3 million?  Seriously, why?  It's an honest question.

Cheap depth.

Rowdy and Lauer are goners.

0 options

[wibadgers23]

3 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Why would we not tender Toro at 1.3 million?  Seriously, why?  It's an honest question.

Probably lack of options which the Brewers value tremendously.

[TURBO]

Ok then, that makes sense.

Thanks for the responses.

[Outlander]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I think the Brewers may just offer Woodruff a 2-year extension depending on medicals instead of offering him arbitration.  It would allow them to bring him along slowly and at a lower amount per year.  Something like 2-years $20m extension instead of the arbitration number. 

The Brewers kept Hiura this year so I am not sure Tellez getting that much would be a non-tender.  Laurer and Toro will definitely be non tendered.

Hiura got $2 million, they are not paying Rowdy $6 million for his production. Paying guys like Tellez, Hiura, Voit for nothing in return hurts.

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

I think the Brewers may just offer Woodruff a 2-year extension depending on medicals instead of offering him arbitration.  It would allow them to bring him along slowly and at a lower amount per year.  Something like 2-years $20m extension instead of the arbitration number. 

The Brewers kept Hiura this year so I am not sure Tellez getting that much would be a non-tender.  Laurer and Toro will definitely be non tendered.

Why would Woodruff take that? The guy could dang near take the arby number, miss all of 2024, and still make $10mil+ in 2025.

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Why would Woodruff take that? The guy could dang near take the arby number, miss all of 2024, and still make $10mil+ in 2025.

Shoulder injuries tend to end careers for pitchers.  It is possible he never fully recovers.  Do you take about $1m less for ‘24 and receive a guaranteed $10m in ‘25 or risk it for nothing?

If he doesn’t fully comeback from the shoulder injury he is not getting anywhere close to $10m.

[BrewerFan]

59 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Shoulder injuries tend to end careers for pitchers.  It is possible he never fully recovers.  Do you take about $1m less for ‘24 and receive a guaranteed $10m in ‘25 or risk it for nothing?

If he doesn’t fully comeback from the shoulder injury he is not getting anywhere close to $10m.

Ok, you're talking about the likelihood he's productive again. He's talking about his earning potential. 

Unless non-tendering him is on the table, then lets say he misses the entire '24 season due to surgery. What do you think he'd get as a FA? Is it more or less than 5M dollars for a former Ace coming off a shoulder injury?

I think we could agree it'd be well over 5M for a team like the Dodgers or...whomever. 

So 2/20 is probably not worth it for Woodruff at this point. 

You'd need at least 2/28 to thread the needle most likely. We'll see 1st if he needs surgery as I haven't heard thus far that he will. 

Quote

@MrTPlushWhy would Woodruff take that? The guy could dang near take the arby number, miss all of 2024, and still make $10mil+ in 2025.

Exactly. Surgery, a full year off and he'd still safely get 10M. 

[RobertCrawley]

I agree that Tellez and Lauer will likely be non-tendered. I'm curious about Houser though. He is a decent addition to the rotation, but $5.5 million seems a lot for what he brings,

[Harold Hutchison]

31 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

I agree that Tellez and Lauer will likely be non-tendered. I'm curious about Houser though. He is a decent addition to the rotation, but $5.5 million seems a lot for what he brings,

Houser's worth it at that price. A solid starter who can hold down a 3/4 spot in the rotation. Take up the Miley option, too.

As for Woodruff... I'd offer this deal:

$12.5 million in 2024

$12.5 million in 2025

Team option in $15 million in 2026 that vests if he pitches 200 innings total in 2024-2025 or a $7.5 million buyout

Team option: $20 million in 2027 or a $7.5 million buyout.

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok, you're talking about the likelihood he's productive again. He's talking about his earning potential. 

Unless non-tendering him is on the table, then lets say he misses the entire '24 season due to surgery. What do you think he'd get as a FA? Is it more or less than 5M dollars for a former Ace coming off a shoulder injury?

I think we could agree it'd be well over 5M for a team like the Dodgers or...whomever. 

So 2/20 is probably not worth it for Woodruff at this point. 

You'd need at least 2/28 to thread the needle most likely. We'll see 1st if he needs surgery as I haven't heard thus far that he will. 

Exactly. Surgery, a full year off and he'd still safely get 10M. 

Which is why I'm okay with going a little higher - 2/$25 million, but add a couple of team options. The Crew still gets the chance for a QO after 2025.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Which is why I'm okay with going a little higher - 2/$25 million, but add a couple of team options. The Crew still gets the chance for a QO after 2025.

And there's still no reason to agree to that on Woodruff's side. The Brewers get him locked in at what he'd make either way(the very minimum of what he'd make) and he gets...what he'd get either way? That really doesn't make sense unless you get a buyout and then I'm pretty sure you can't decline the option and make a QO. 

The upside for Woodruff doesn't change but the downside changes massively. 

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

And there's still no reason to agree to that on Woodruff's side. The Brewers get him locked in at what he'd make either way(the very minimum of what he'd make) and he gets...what he'd get either way? That really doesn't make sense unless you get a buyout and then I'm pretty sure you can't decline the option and make a QO. 

The upside for Woodruff doesn't change but the downside changes massively. 

If rumors that Woodruff needs shoulder surgery and will miss all of 2024 are true then he would absolutely have a reason to guarantee himself some money. 

[BrewerFan]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

If rumors that Woodruff needs shoulder surgery and will miss all of 2024 are true then he would absolutely have a reason to guarantee himself some money. 

Ok...I'm not speculating on rumors and this thread is...fairly easy to follow;

 

20 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Unless non-tendering him is on the table

 

20 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

We'll see 1st if he needs surgery as I haven't heard thus far that he will. 

 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Ok...I'm not speculating on rumors and this thread is...fairly easy to follow;

 

 

 

If Woodruff gets non-tendered because he’s not pitching in 2024 nobody is going to pay him the $12.5M he’s projected to make according to MLBTR. Even if he got $15M in 2025 after not pitching in 2024 it’s less money than working a 2 year deal to guarantee himself like $20M total between 2024 and 2025.

[Harold Hutchison]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

If Woodruff gets non-tendered because he’s not pitching in 2024 nobody is going to pay him the $12.5M he’s projected to make according to MLBTR. Even if he got $15M in 2025 after not pitching in 2024 it’s less money than working a 2 year deal to guarantee himself like $20M total between 2024 and 2025.

The brewers could even add an option year or two as well.

2024: $10 million

2025: $15 million

2026: $15 million (team option with $5 million buyout, option becomes a guaranteed year if he pitches 150 innings in 2025)

2027: $17.5 million (team option with $5 million buyout, option become guaranteed if he pitches 150 innings in 2026)

2028: $20 million (mutual option with $5 million buyout)

Woodruff could be guaranteed $30 million through 2026, but has the chance for as much as $87.5 million through 2028.