Redd Vencher’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint

[Redd Vencher]

Signings

Matt Chapman 5 years $100 M (This is top pay I'd be willing to go. If he could be had for less, I'd prefer that, but I've seen 6 years $150 M projected. I think that's ludicrous for the player he currently is)

Tyler Mahle 2 years $20 M maybe with a 3rd year option (out until at least May recovering from TJ)

Mitch Garver 2 years $16-18 M maybe with a 3rd year option.

Erick Fedde 2 years $8 M maybe with a 3rd year option

Jakob Junis 2 years $8 M

Manny Pina 1 year $1 M (stop gap for Quero)

Trades

Corbin Burnes to Dodgers for Emmett Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Justin Wrobleski, and Hyun-Soek Jang.

Devin Williams to Orioles for Santander, Ortiz, and Norby

Extensions

Brandon Woodruff 2 years $20 M ($5 M and $15 M respectively)

Would still like an Adames extension if possible. See if he'll take a 6 year $90-$100 M extension after the down offensive season.

My Thought Process

The big thing I was looking for when putting this together is finding power for the lineup on reasonable value. A lot of Brewers fans are looking at Hoskins, but I don't like what it would likely cost to bring him in. Garver has a hard time staying healthy behind the plate, so a move to fulltime 1B/DH might keep him healthy and get him 500+ PA for the first time in his career. He's got the power to be a 30 HR threat if that's the case, and the past playing time should keep his salary down. I'm looking at Narvaez' FA contract last offseason as a comp. While I would like to think the Orioles would send what it would take to get Burnes, I don't think they'd be willing to do that. Santander in his final season at $12.7 M is an obvious trade candidate to open up playing time for their top prospects in AAA. I don't think he has much trade value, so he's certainly not the headliner for a guy like Williams. I think Ortiz and Norby are the middle infield prospects they're most likely to move for pitching. A top 100 guy and a fringe top 100 guy is fairly good value for Williams, and Santander just kind of pushes it over the top to move him. The final piece of the power puzzle is 3B Chapman. He's not the same hitter he was in his early years with Oakland, but he's still a solidly above average bat and excellent defender at 3B making him a 4 WAR player. With that WAR coming more from his defense than his bat, I think his price is going to be lower than what some think. If we can pull these 3 off, we've brought in 2 30 HR threats and a 20-25 HR threat without harming the defense much if at all.

The other big trade I have is Burnes to the Dodgers for Sheehan, Stone, Wrobleski, and Jang. The Dodgers depth of pitching prospects and young pitching plus their ability to extend Burnes makes the most likely to move the kind of talent it'll take to get Burnes. With Burnes and Williams departing, this leaves a hole in the pitching department. My solution is depth above big contracts with the largest FA deal going to Mahle who's recovering from TJ, He's looked like a solid mid rotation arm or better for the last 4 seasons when healthy. I think there's good value to be had in a deal with him. We still need more depth while he's recovering, so I may have gone a bit overboard with both Fedde and Junis pushing guys like Gasser and Stone to AAA, but I'd rather have excess depth and work around it than have the young arms and Houser/Rea struggle with no help internally. It's also not difficult to move on from the vets at these prices if they struggle and the young arms force your hand.

As for the couple of extensions listed, I think Woodruff is too good of arm when healthy to just nontender, so I want to see him sign a 2 year deal to give us a shot at 1 more year with him in 2025 and an outside shot at availability in the 2024 playoffs. I'm still a big Adames believer as he set career bests in BB% and K% without sacrificing too much power with his overall line dragged down by a career worst BABIP, and it's hard to find top 10 SS production even with a top 100 prospect like Ortiz. See if he's willing to trade bigger payday in FA for some more security on a 6 year $90-$100 M deal after a down offensive season.

• C: William Contreras ($0.77M)
• 1B: Mitch Garver ($8.00M)
• 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M)
• 3B: Matt Chapman ($20M)
• SS: Willy Adames ($12.40M)
• LF: Christian Yelich ($22.00M)
• CF: Garret Mitchell ($0.77M)
• RF: Sal Frelick ($0.77M)
• DH: Anthony Santander ($12.7M)
• Bench OF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M)
• Utility: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M)
• Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M)
• Backup C: Manny Pina ($1.0M)
• SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M)
• SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M)
• SP3: Emmet Sheehan ($0.77M)
• SP4: Adrian Houser ($5.60M)
• SP5: Erick Fedde ($3.5M)
• CL: Joel Payamps ($1.70M)
• RP: Abner Uribe ($0.77M)
• RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M)
• RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M)
• RP: Jakob Junis ($3.5M)
• RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M)
• RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M)
• RP: Colin Rea ($3.5M)

Payroll is 14.43% under budget

[Brewcrew82]

My problem with extending Willy is that while he’s a huge bounce back candidate now after a subpar offensive season in the prime of his career, he’s not necessarily a safe bet in his early to mid 30s once his defensive value begins to decline. I think we’re better off going with EBJ or finding our SS of the future in a Burnes or Williams trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ooh, I completely forgot about Mahle. I think that’d be a smart pickup. 

[DR28]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ooh, I completely forgot about Mahle. I think that’d be a smart pickup. 

I believe he's out most of 2024, had TJ this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, DR28 said:

I believe he's out most of 2024, had TJ this season.

Yeah, he’s a candidate for a two year contract that will be more like a 1.25-1.5 year contract. 

[JackNicholson1974]

I love Willy, I do. But he’s closer to Javy Baez at this point than the guy we traded for initially

[Brock Beauchamp]

22 minutes ago, JackNicholson1974 said:

I love Willy, I do. But he’s closer to Javy Baez at this point than the guy we traded for initially

You're both underrating how bad Baez has been (0.8 fWAR) and how good Adames still is (3.4 fWAR, slightly better than any season he posted in Tampa).

[sveumrules]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You're both underrating how bad Baez has been (0.8 fWAR) and how good Adames still is (3.4 fWAR, slightly better than any season he posted in Tampa).

Yeah, last two years Baez is at 75 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR over 1137 PAs.

Adames is at 101 wRC+ and 8.1 WAR over 1255 PAs last two years.

Willy in Tampa put up a 103 wRC+ and 5.7 WAR over 1254 PAs.

Kind of uncanny how close those PAs and wRC+ are with improved defense accounting for the WAR difference. Outside of the 135 wRC+ he posted over 413 PA when we first acquired him he has been a little above average in aggregate over his other 2,500 career PAs.

 

[jay87shot]

I think the Baez comment is that Adames is treanding towards Baez. Baez was a .270+ hitter before age 27 and has not made adjustment and is now one of the worst bats in the league. Adames was a .260 hitter and is losing batting average fast. Yes, Adames still has power, takes some walks, and plays top notch defense. However if Adames doesn't change and loses a bit of pop like Baez and defense slowly decrease he could be Baez very easily in 2 years. It makes an extension very worrisome especially for a team with a 120-140 million-ish salary.