Heyman: Rivals Believe There's Decent Chance Corbin Burnes is Traded

[Jastro]

Brewers General Manager Matt Arnold has reiterated several times that he is in no rush to trade Corbin Burnes, who becomes a free agent after the 2024 season.

But what do other teams believe? It's in the Brewers' interests to play coy with trading the ace starting pitcher, publicly stating that they're perfectly willing and happy to play out the 2024 campaign with Burnes fronting the rotation. According to Heyman, rival executives believe there's a decent chance the Brewers will trade Burnes before the season. It makes sense, not only from a return value perspective but if the Brewers don't trade Burnes before Opening Day, any team that trades for him no longer has the option to offer him a qualifying offer after the season; that pick would typically land in the 31-36 draft slot range. The allotment for the first such pick in 2023 was just over $2.7 million.

 

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[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's not saying anything that wasn't an expectation. Arnold telling McCalvy yesterday that they expect Burnes to be a Brewer is basically GM-speak for "we don't need to move him, but go ahead and shoot your shot" to other GMs.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

He's not saying anything that wasn't an expectation. Arnold telling McCalvy yesterday that they expect Burnes to be a Brewer is basically GM-speak for "we don't need to move him, but go ahead and shoot your shot" to other GMs.

WHAAA??? You mean GM's don't just tell everyone their plans?? 😅

[wibadgers23]

These reporters aren’t getting any insider information from the Brewers. The Brewers are one of the most tight-lipped organizations in baseball. We usually don’t know a trade or signing is going down until it actually happens. All of these “reports” are just whatever to me.

[CheezWizHed]

I remember the old Doug Melvin days... if he said "X isn't going to happen" it was only a matter of when. 

[RightFieldCoder]

Like the time Melvin claimed he wasn't going to trade Overbay and he'd just have two first basemen on the team. Or what Ricketts said about David Ross at the end of the season. I expect anything a GM tells the media on the record is not their true thoughts.

[brewmann04]

I still think Corbin will be an ex brewer sooner than later

[Matt Breen]

With the price people are having to pay free agents (and willing to pay), I think Burnes will be in heavy demand once the smoke clears - especially after Ohtani, Yamamoto and Montgomery sign. The key is will anyone meet our equally heavy demands. If so, then Burnes will be gone. 

The beauty of things is that if no one meets our price, we can just take our football and go home. Burnes will be just fine in our 2024 rotation.

[HarveysWBs]

While Bismarck may have never actually said this, it's probably useful as a general rule for politics, jealous lovers, and GM speak:  never believe anything until it has been officially denied.  But we must also remember the modern corollary:  everybody is simping for the clicks.

Do with that what you will.

[Scooterfletcher]

If Padres really want Burnes, what do y’all want after their Soto trade?

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Scooterfletcher said:

If Padres really want Burnes, what do y’all want after their Soto trade?

Starts with Snelling for me. Snelling and Zavala/Head.

[Scooterfletcher]

Was thinking snelling Thorpe and two more 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Scooterfletcher said:

Was thinking snelling Thorpe and two more 

Yeah. We could even throw in Williams to replace Hader and start talking about Merrill, who's kind of blocked in that IF right now. 

[Scooterfletcher]

From the braves I like: AJSS Waldrop Grissom for Burnes and Wiemer..

From mariners I like: Woo for Mitchell and Small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 I’m

[Michael Trzinski]

On 12/7/2023 at 2:45 AM, Scooterfletcher said:

From the braves I like: AJSS Waldrop Grissom for Burnes and Wiemer..

From mariners I like: Woo for Mitchell and Small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From the Braves perspective, that might be a little steep. I assume you meant Forrest Wall? Maybe two of those for Burnes and Wiemer, but I really think we are inflating Wiemer's value. They might want Mitchell or Frelick instead?

The Seattle trade seems fair.

JMO...

[Michael Trzinski]

Just found this. I'm sure others have seen/used it before. Not sure how accurate it is...

Baseball Trade Values: Accurate Player Trade Values: Trade Simulator

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

Just found this. I'm sure others have seen/used it before. Not sure how accurate it is...

Baseball Trade Values: Accurate Player Trade Values: Trade Simulator

Fairly accurate for player values.  Not perfect but it is the best that we have.  

[SRB]

Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers for SS Gavin Lux, SP Gavin Stone, and a low-minors flier.

Dodgers get much better in 2024 and we get more years of cost-controlled major leaguers without giving up on the short term.

[wiguy94]

23 minutes ago, SRB said:

Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers for SS Gavin Lux, SP Gavin Stone, and a low-minors flier.

Dodgers get much better in 2024 and we get more years of cost-controlled major leaguers without giving up on the short term.

Oh lord no. 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers for SS Gavin Lux, SP Gavin Stone, and a low-minors flier.

Dodgers get much better in 2024 and we get more years of cost-controlled major leaguers without giving up on the short term.

Why Gavin Lux?  Is it because he is from WI?

[SRB]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

Why Gavin Lux?  Is it because he is from WI?

He's a great player with untapped upside who would not even be available if not for his injury. He was worth 3.0 fWAR in 129 G for the Dodgers in 2022. Still just 26.

I'm looking for immediate everyday starters who would help us compete across the next few seasons, and so aren't pure one-year rentals. Not super easy to find.

Maybe Stone is too light on the pitching end. I was going off his prospect reputation without looking at his middling 2023 performance. Dodgers have a number of young MLB-ready SP though.

Doubt the Dodgers are in as much of a hurry to trade for Burnes after today though 😅

[Jastro]

The will they, won't they dilemma continues... as in Bob Nightengale's Sunday notebook says:
 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/12/10/shohei-ohtani-rumors-free-agent-mlb-reporters/71867634007/

[brewcrewdue80]

20 hours ago, SRB said:

Burnes and Adames to the Dodgers for SS Gavin Lux, SP Gavin Stone, and a low-minors flier.

Dodgers get much better in 2024 and we get more years of cost-controlled major leaguers without giving up on the short term.

Puke. Why Stone? Not even a plus fastball with control issues?  You want an Eric Lauer ceiling, RH. I'm maybe taking him for Adames.  Burnes had better fetch something with an actual chance to exceed 3WAR in a season.  

Lux has 3 years of control remaining.  Trade 2 seasons of better players for 3 of a worse and a hopeful #3?  

[nate82]

16 hours ago, SRB said:

He's a great player with untapped upside who would not even be available if not for his injury. He was worth 3.0 fWAR in 129 G for the Dodgers in 2022. Still just 26.

I don't think Lux is a great player.  He has had one good year so far.  I think he is limited to 2B only and is not a SS.  I think counting on him being a SS will be a big mistake.  Also counting on him replicating his 2022 season is also foolish. 

He is also only just an above average base runner though he is in the top 89 percentile in sprint speed.  With the torn ACL, LCL and a hamstring tear that could sap a lot of his speed.  If he drops to lets say the 70th percentile in sprint speed and with his base running at 69th percentile how far will he drop there?  If he drops to about average around 50th percentile then he starts losing value.  That 3.0 fWAR is going to drop to around a 2.0 fWAR.  He does have a lot of range in fielding but I am wondering if this is more shift based.  With the current rules of no shifting is Lux really that great of a fielder without the shift?

There are way too many question marks on Lux for him to be in a Burnes deal.  Maybe if he is a throw in but I doubt the Dodgers do that.  Lux has very little value right now on the trade market because of the injuries and the question marks of how he will perform after these injuries. 

[wibadgers23]

6 hours ago, Jastro said:

The will they, won't they dilemma continues... as in Bob Nightengale's Sunday notebook says:
 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/12/10/shohei-ohtani-rumors-free-agent-mlb-reporters/71867634007/

Going to be a LONG offseason of rumors and speculation surrounding Burnes.