The First BrewerFan Prospect Poll, Revisited 10 Years Later

[Matt Breen]

Nearly ten years ago, in May of 2014, the members of BrewerFan (the precursor of Brewer Fanatic) held their first-ever prospect poll. I volunteered to manage the poll - not realizing it would be my job for eight more years and 20+ polls.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The first poll asked users to submit their top 20 prospects (this was expanded after the first poll - from 20 to 25 players). Twenty-two people responded. Voting was pretty simple: a community member ranked their top players and sent me the list. The top player received 20 points, the second player received 19 points, and so forth.

Here are the results of that first BrewerFan prospect poll in 2014.

#1 - Jimmy Nelson, RHP
#2 - Tyrone Taylor, OF
#3 - Clint Coulter, C
#4 - Orlando Arcia, SS
#5 - Devin Williams, RHP
#6 - Mitch Haniger, OF
#7 - Taylor Jungmann, RHP
#8 - Victor Roache, OF
#9 - Jed Bradley, LHP
#10 - Michael Reed, OF
#11 - Hunter Morris, 1B
#12 - Tucker Neuhaus, 3B
#13 - Nick Delmonico, 3B
#14 - David Denson, 1B
#15 - Tyler Cravy, RPH
#16 - Jorge Lopez, RPH
#17 - David Goforth, RPH
#18 - Tyler Wagner, RPH
#19 - Chris McFarland, 2B
#20 - Brent Suter, LHP

So, looking back - how’d we do? 
Honestly, I’d say the first top 20 prospect poll went as well as expected. Nelson handily landed the top spot and the results were not that different from other prospect polls at the time. Five of the first six players have become productive major leaguers. Nelson appeared to be the best of the lot until injuries derailed his career. The ‘best’ player mantle now goes to Devin Williams, who has become one of the game's top closers. 

If we could go back and redo the vote, five of the top six players (Coulter being the exception) would end up at the top of the list - along with Brent Suter and Garrett Cooper. 

Here are some other observations:

Stars are lacking.
Coming into the 2014 season, the Brewers were seen as having a weak farm system - and the results have played out as such.

The players receiving votes have combined for four All-Star appearances (Williams twice, Haniger, Arcia), one Rookie of the Year award (Williams), Cy Young award votes (Williams, Nelson), and MVP votes (Haniger and Williams each twice). 

This is respectable but disappointing, as a club needs to develop quality players to succeed in baseball, especially a small market club such as Milwaukee. 

It doesn’t help that a couple of players from this poll went on and thrived once they left the Brewers organization. Haniger was dealt as a minor leaguer, while Milwaukee gave up on Arcia after five seasons due to his weak bat. He was an All-Star with Atlanta in 2023. 

All that said, Devin Williams has developed into one of the top closers in baseball. 

One-trick power ponies struggle.
We have learned over the years, and this is especially true in this poll, that power hitters with little else in their arsenal will flame out. Coulter, Roache, Denson, and Morris failed to reach the majors. 

First-round picks swing and miss.
Draft picks are always a risk. But to see so many first-round selections that have failed on this list is disheartening. Jungmann, Bradley, Coulter, and Roache were all first-rounders who failed to reach the majors or had fleeting success. 

Be wary of older, right-handed arms.
It’s easy to get seduced by some pretty numbers. One red flag to watch for is older, right-handed pitchers who rack up nice numbers - often against players with less experience. Wagner, Cravy, and Goforth are examples of this - guys without exceptional ability don’t have what it takes to make it beyond AAA. Baseball is littered with these guys. It doesn’t mean they aren’t prospects or worth having - not to overvalue them when assessing their prospect status.

Who’d we miss out on?
Baseball is filled with stories of guys who overcome all odds to make it to the majors. Garrett Cooper is the guy who stands out for NOT being on our list or even receiving a single vote. Cooper has gone from an afterthought (heck, not even an afterthought) to a solid career for parts of seven big league seasons.

Other players have had some success in the majors - but nothing big. Jorge Lopez and Jacob Barnes are still kicking around baseball. So is Nick Ramirez - just not as a 1B - but instead as a pitcher. Jason Rogers, Taylor Williams, Yadiel Rivera, Nicky Delmonico, and others all had a moment or two - but not much else.

Best story from the 2014 prospect poll.
This one is pretty easy. You could argue Devin Williams due to his success. He was a talented teenager and has developed into one of baseball’s best relievers. 

But I would argue that the best ‘story’ from the 2014 prospect poll is the guy at the bottom of the list, left-hander Brent Suter. 

Suter was initially picked in the 31st round of the draft. He didn’t throw hard and didn’t put up big numbers. But he did whatever he was asked, snuck up on the world, and he kept improving as he moved up the minor league ladder. Kudos to the community who put Suter this high on our poll. Virtually no other polls at this time held Suter in such regard.

Suter was legendarily championed by community member clancyphile, often getting a #1 prospect vote - which annoyed some and skewed our results. But that was okay because people cheered for a guy like Suter. 

He would go on to have a solid career in Milwaukee (and beyond) and endear himself to the community with his geeky personality and pranks.

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[duewizard]

Interesting to see what people thought of a decade ago. Who knows what will be of the current top 20.

Btw the Chris McFarland you linked played 3 games for the Baltimore Monumentals of the 1884 Union Association.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jungmann started well going 9-5 with a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 major league starts in 2015.  He was doing so well at the time it appeared he might even get some ROY consideration.  

He ended his career pitching in Japan for a couple of seasons with very modest success.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Should note that Jorge Lopez was an all star in 2022 making it 5 all star nods from this group.  Jorge was fantastic in 2022 and it looked like he turned his career until it came crashing back down again this year.

[biedergb]

Wow. Flashbacks. I remember the BF.net top prospect lists. 
I also remember that 2014 list and thinking that the top 10 mid season was pretty good. Oof 

 

It just goes to show that prospect evaluation is subjective and that “predictions are hard; especially about the future.”

[Matt Breen]

3 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Should note that Jorge Lopez was an all star in 2022 making it 5 all star nods from this group.  Jorge was fantastic in 2022 and it looked like he turned his career until it came crashing back down again this year.

Great catch. Thanks. 

[Matt Breen]

8 hours ago, duewizard said:

Interesting to see what people thought of a decade ago. Who knows what will be of the current top 20.

Btw the Chris McFarland you linked played 3 games for the Baltimore Monumentals of the 1884 Union Association.

The links in the articles are generated dynamically, if I am correct, so it was a 'bot' error. Thanks for noting.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Jungmann started well going 9-5 with a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 major league starts in 2015.  He was doing so well at the time it appeared he might even get some ROY consideration.  

He ended his career pitching in Japan for a couple of seasons with very modest success.

That's a little wild. I do not remember it like that. I remember a great 1st start and then I thought he flirted with a no-hitter, a CG, but I would have guessed his ERA would have been well over 4 and that he had ~50IP.

 

I was a big Coulter fan. I knew it was an uphill climb for him, but I thought he had a lot of upside. 

@reillymcshanegreat trip down memory lane...

[CheeseheadInQC]

I remember those days. This inspired me to revisit some of the drafts from the few years before. Man, some of those were rough.  One name that popped from the 2012 draft was Preston Gainey. I still believe he would have become a solid reliever if the injuries hadn’t ruined his career and you aren’t going to convince me otherwise.

[DHonks]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I remember those days. This inspired me to revisit some of the drafts from the few years before. Man, some of those were rough.  One name that popped from the 2012 draft was Preston Gainey. I still believe he would have become a solid reliever if the injuries hadn’t ruined his career and you aren’t going to convince me otherwise.

I’m still waiting for JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Jose Morse’s, and Ryan Poe to solidify our rotation. And who didn’t love Garrison from the Hun School (whatever that is)

[Jim Goulart]

4 hours ago, DHonks said:

I’m still waiting for JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Jose Morse’s, and Ryan Poe to solidify our rotation. And who didn’t love Garrison from the Hun School (whatever that is)

Not sure if you saw this last month, DHonks:
 

 

[CheezWizHed]

Wow, has it only been 10 years? 😅 Fun blast in the past. Kind of odd how many of these players were highly ranked, fell back down, and then climbed back up - Taylor, Williams, and Lopez.

 

[Outlander]

I don't know what the breakdown of the voting was but a pretty good chance that the only reason Suter was in the top 20 was because of Clancy. I'm sure if we went back to that thread there would be a lot of people ripping on him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, duewizard said:

Btw the Chris McFarland you linked played 3 games for the Baltimore Monumentals of the 1884 Union Association.

Hahahah, we use B-Ref's automated linker tool and it's... error prone at times.

[Matt Breen]

2 hours ago, Outlander said:

I don't know what the breakdown of the voting was but a pretty good chance that the only reason Suter was in the top 20 was because of Clancy. I'm sure if we went back to that thread there would be a lot of people ripping on him.

Actually, Clancy did not vote in our first poll.

Suter did well because he started the 2014 season with a bang. When I wrote up the article in May of that year, he had a 1.96 ERA in 55 IP at AA. So pretty impressive. A lot of people got excited about him. 10 of the 22 voters had him on their ballot, so it was not any one person vaulting him to this spot. 

One thing about prospect voting is many of us are overly swayed by recent success. There's a reason for that - but it does let someone who has a hot streak over a couple of months jump up abnormally high on our lists. Not always, but sometimes. 

[Playing Catch]

On 1/4/2024 at 8:19 AM, reillymcshane said:

Suter was legendarily championed by community member clancyphile, often getting a #1 prospect vote - which annoyed some and skewed our results. But that was okay because people cheered for a guy like Suter. 

I still respect Clancy for these efforts... although if everyone did it, it wouldn't work. When was the first Brewerfan top lists? Like 2004? Toby's Top 40 or something like that? Or does it go back even further?

[Matt Breen]

11 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I still respect Clancy for these efforts... although if everyone did it, it wouldn't work. When was the first Brewerfan top lists? Like 2004? Toby's Top 40 or something like that? Or does it go back even further?

Thankfully, no one else voted in such a fashion. I was ready to act if people started getting weird. One thing you can do when doing polls like we did is to toss out the highest and lowest ballot of each candidate. It prevents one person from spiking (or tanking) the vote. But it never got to that, so I never had to do so. 

In the end, the old forum votes were fun. Way more work than what we do now, but still fun.

[Harold Hutchison]

On 1/5/2024 at 11:40 AM, reillymcshane said:

Actually, Clancy did not vote in our first poll.

Suter did well because he started the 2014 season with a bang. When I wrote up the article in May of that year, he had a 1.96 ERA in 55 IP at AA. So pretty impressive. A lot of people got excited about him. 10 of the 22 voters had him on their ballot, so it was not any one person vaulting him to this spot. 

One thing about prospect voting is many of us are overly swayed by recent success. There's a reason for that - but it does let someone who has a hot streak over a couple of months jump up abnormally high on our lists. Not always, but sometimes. 

I really went all-in on Suter during and after 2015. Simply put, something clicked and that soft-tossing lefty starter just simply shut offenses down.

I didn't see how, but the box scores weren't lying. SOMETHING was happening. The clincher, though, was what didn't happen when Suter was promoted to Triple-A Colorado Springs. Baby seals meeting Canadian fishermen in the Arctic breath a sigh of relief that they ain't pitching in that ballpark.

Put it this way - here's pitcher A, a very successful major-leaguer with multiple all-star appearances. Here's a line from his 2016 performance: 1-7, 5.22 ERA.

Suter's numbers? 6-6, 3.50 ERA after going 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA in 2015.