Prospect Showdowns: Third Baseman Of The Future: Tyler Black vs. Brock Wilken

[Harold Hutchison]

The Brewers have a hole at the hot corner, and two blue-chip prospects who could fill it by the end of the 2024 season. This year, Tyler Black and Brock Wilken both are making cases to man the position for the next few years. But which one will take the spot?

Image courtesy of Mike Krebs (photo of Black), Carlos Hurtado (photo of Wilken)

A year ago, the Brewers were in need of help at third base down on the farm. In the 2023 farm system preview for that position, although we noted some decent options from other positions who moved to third. A year later, the Brewers are in a very different world. Now, Tyler Black and Brock Wilken give the Brewers two third basemen in the Top 10 of both the MLB Pipeline and Brewer Fanatic prospect lists for the team. Let’s see the case each makes to handle the hot corner.

The Case For Tyler Black
Tyler Black had a massive breakout in 2023, posted a .284/.417/.513 line with 25 doubles, 12 triples, and 18 home runs, while adding 55 steals. Black’s power took a big step up, with his .229 isolated power being a roughly 50-percent increase over his 2022 ISO of .143. Black’s development into a dynamic threat, beyond just a pure hitter who held down third base, is arguably the most pleasant surprise of the 2023 season in the minor-league system. His offensive profile looks to be a lot like that of Jimmy Rollins, only with better OBP skills to compensate for a little less power.

Black also has been solid defensively at third and second, with the only knock on him being arm strength per MLB Pipeline, while Brewer Fanatic’s report seemed harsher. He also saw time in the outfield, but that is not likely, with Sal Frelick, Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer having reached Milwaukee. Still, his offensive profile is one that would be extremely solid at third base (or any position), and he is at No. 51 in the MLB Pipeline Top 100, one of four Brewers farmhands to reach that list.

One other strong factor in Black’s favor is his proximity to the MLB level. He took things up a slight step after a late-season promotion to Nashville, and he seems to have nothing left to prove in the minors. In essence, he is a plug-and-play option at the hot corner for 2024, and teams could do far worse. Failing that, he could be an option for the Crew at first base (although he's a little short for the position, at 5 feet, 10 inches) or designated hitter.

The Case For Brock Wilken
With Wilken, his case starts with his raw power--71 homers over three years in college, and five more in the two months of minor-league play in 2023. Wilken can hit the ball out of the park, and has drawn more than his fair share of walks. He proved capable of stealing bases, too, and legged out four triples, so he is not a liability on the basepaths when he doesn’t get a true outcome. Wilken’s defense is also solid, if not spectacular, at the hot corner, and he proved capable.

That said, he does have some aspects of his game that could use work. His strikeout rate went higher when he got to Double-A Biloxi, and he did see it climb during the sophomore year of his college career. On defense, there is some question about whether he has the range to handle third base. Granted, having the likes of Willy Adames and Brice Turang could help the team mask Wilken’s deficiencies there, and Andruw Monasterio is an option as a defensive replacement. Should Juan Báez win the shortstop of the future showdown as a bat-first option at the position, Wilken’s lack of range at third base could be an issue.

Then again, the Crew is looking for a long-term option at first base as well, and Wilken could be a defensive asset there. The bat will play at either of the corner infield positions (or the corner outfield in a pinch), and Wilken’s bat would be an asset at DH as well.

Breakdown
Assuming both players develop, this is one position battle that is a can't-lose situation for the Crew. No matter who comes out on top, the other is likely to see a lot of time at first base, designated hitter, both, or possibly even another position. A more painful, but still positive scenario could see the Brewers deal one of them to close out a deadline deal (the Matt LaPorta-for-CC Sabathia scenario comes to mind).

That said, as of right now, both Black and Wilken are likely to be significant contributors to the Brewers in the near future. The “loser” of this competition will still provide a lot of value to the team, whether he ends up wearing the blue and gold in Milwaukee or some other team’s jersey.

Who you got? Would you move either player in a trade, or take them away from the position, or do you prefer to see them play their way into or out of opportunities?

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[Trax]

For now unless we add a sure thing Black can likely start at 3rd now.  Wilken is a year or two out for that shot.

Black might have a long term future at a different position but can certainly cover 3rd for us better than any other option we have at the moment.  

[ARobsBrewCrew]

Wilken, at this point, will likely end up as the everyday third baseman in a couple years.  Black will handle the hot corner until then and then will likely split his time 1B/2B/3B/OF/DH.  As long as they get Black regular ABs they don’t care where he is playing.  Also, once again, Juan Baez is not a shortstop going forward.  Yes, he’ll continue to see time there and may need to play there regularly at times when he is the best option at whatever level he finds himself due to injury/promotion of better defensive options.  However, please stop floating the question of him being a bat-first SS of the future when that has been discussed already on many of your threads.

[Harold Hutchison]

5 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Wilken, at this point, will likely end up as the everyday third baseman in a couple years.  Black will handle the hot corner until then and then will likely split his time 1B/2B/3B/OF/DH.  As long as they get Black regular ABs they don’t care where he is playing.  Also, once again, Juan Baez is not a shortstop going forward.  Yes, he’ll continue to see time there and may need to play there regularly at times when he is the best option at whatever level he finds himself due to injury/promotion of better defensive options.  However, please stop floating the question of him being a bat-first SS of the future when that has been discussed already on many of your threads.

Baez is still a long way from the majors, and a lot can happen. A bit soon to write someone off, or lock someone in.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Baez is still a long way from the majors, and a lot can happen. A bit soon to write someone off, or lock someone in.

Just what I’ve seen and heard from those in and around the organization (and Baez himself), but I respect your glass half-full mentality.  It’s not a knock on Báez, just the reality of his skillset which, yes, can change/improve, but it’s often more beneficial to help build up a player in the environment where they can more easily thrive rather than challenge them with a task that isn’t likely to work out well in the first place.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

FWIW, the Callup podcast just ranked Black as the 7th best 3b prospect.  Wilkens was just outside the top 10,  Nice problem for the Brewers to have.  Really excited to see what Black can do next year.  Worthwhile listen if your interested:

 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Will Tyler's walkup music be Paint it Black? Just looking forward to seeing some spring ball.

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

I look forward to seeing Black and Wilken  progress in Brewers uniforms.  

In the short term, I hope Black gets time at 3rd, 2nd and 1st but get 400+ ab's this season.

Wilken could force the issue if he can keep his .OBP over .320 with his power.. I'd still love to see Adames dealt and Turang at SS for years to come (yes, his bat needs to mature, but Ozzie was a .220 hitter early on and he is considered one of the best all around SS ever now). 

One more established starter on a one year contract, maybe a one year 3B and bring Santana back and we're good to go..

I'm excited, even if the Cubs are making serious noise concerning the remaining FA'S

[TURBO]

Why are you trying to trade one of them off already?  How long has it been since we drafted and developed actual hitters, and you think we will trade one of them at the deadline?

I sure hope you are wrong.

We need to hang onto guys like Wilken and Black, especially since both can handle the infield corners, positions we have been desperate for for years.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, TURBO said:

Why are you trying to trade one of them off already?  How long has it been since we drafted and developed actual hitters, and you think we will trade one of them at the deadline?

I sure hope you are wrong.

We need to hang onto guys like Wilken and Black, especially since both can handle the infield corners, positions we have been desperate for for years.

 

Quote

 

Breakdown
Assuming both players develop, this is one position battle that is a can't-lose situation for the Crew. No matter who comes out on top, the other is likely to see a lot of time at first base, designated hitter, both, or possibly even another position. A more painful, but still positive scenario could see the Brewers deal one of them to close out a deadline deal (the Matt LaPorta-for-CC Sabathia scenario comes to mind).

 

That said, as of right now, both Black and Wilken are likely to be significant contributors to the Brewers in the near future. The “loser” of this competition will still provide a lot of value to the team, whether he ends up wearing the blue and gold in Milwaukee or some other team’s jersey.

Who you got? Would you move either player in a trade, or take them away from the position, or do you prefer to see them play their way into or out of opportunities?

 

 

I wouldn't say he's "trying to trade one." He's just laying out all the possible options. His suggested that they could play 1B or DH first and THEN said they could also be used in a trade. 

And who knows what the team will look like by then. It's just an honest analysis. 

[TURBO]

10 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

And who knows what the team will look like by then. It's just an honest analysis. 

Do you know clancy?  🙃

[Harold Hutchison]

8 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Do you know clancy?  🙃

Don't think I've met him, but I'll point something else out:

Also, one cannot predict what could happen down the road.

If Tampa Rays GM Peter Bendix called Dave Arnold tomorrow and offered Shane McClanahan for Wilken, would you tell Arnold to say no? I don't think I would.

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If Tampa Rays GM Peter Bendix called Dave Arnold tomorrow and offered Shane McClanahan for Wilken, would you tell Arnold to say no? I don't think I would.

I’m not saying BTV is unimpeachable or anything, but they have McLanahan at $37.3M in surplus value compared to $8.9M for Wilken.

With some combination Caminero, Mead and Paredes lined up the Rays already have three 3B better than Brock.

Rays worst projected positions are currently CF and C, so they’d probably be more keen on Frelick ($35.4M surplus value on BTV) or Quero ($24.2M) as a McClanahan headliner.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

Don't think I've met him, but I'll point something else out:

Also, one cannot predict what could happen down the road.

If Tampa Rays GM Peter Bendix called Dave Arnold tomorrow and offered Shane McClanahan for Wilken, would you tell Arnold to say no? I don't think I would.

I don’t think Dave Arnold would have the authority to say yes or no.  Matt Arnold perhaps

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, TURBO said:

Do you know clancy?  🙃

Yes. I also know what he wrote here and he wasn't trying to trade them. He literally just listed the outcomes that were possible.

 

IF he was talking about Wilken playing SS because that's what he played in AAU and we could have the best offensive SS, I'd be disagreeing with him...but he didn't. It starts with how either can be the future 3B, then the other can play elsewhere with the DH and 1B. Then, the possibility they could be traded in a huge move at the deadline.