Yelich and Cain Redux? Another Proposal for a Brewers One-Two Hot Stove Punch

[Ryan Pollak]

It's not quite one-stop shopping that has served the Brewers best, in the recent past. They've gotten huge value from making multiple, distinct moves, in a short period of time. Let's look at one way they could do so again.

Image courtesy of © Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, I wrote about the day (very near this same date on the calendar) back in 2018, when the Brewers permanently changed the direction of their franchise by trading for Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain within several hours of each other. Then I proposed one avenue by which they could try to repeat that feat. Today, let's tackle another.

Trade for Harold Ramirez and Sign Jorge Soler
Prior to the arbitration deadline, it was rumored the Rays were willing to shop around their designated hitter Harold Ramirez. Judging by his numbers with the Rays and his ability to play first, that's a choice rooted in penny-pinching.

In two seasons with the Rays, Ramirez has a .306 batting average, a .432 slugging percentage and a 121 OPS+. He hasn’t provided a lot of power, only hitting 36 home runs in five seasons, but his 41.6-percent hard hit rate is slightly above the MLB average. His strikeout rate is well below the average, at 17.8 percent.

At 28, Ramirez is under club control for two more seasons. The Rays must have made him available to cut some salary. While the two sides haven’t come to an agreement on a salary, both have submitted their figures for an arbitration hearing.

Ramirez is set to make either $3.8 million or $4.3 million this season. At that price, the Rays can afford to hold onto their DH. That means the Brewers will have to put up an offer the Rays can’t refuse.

Outside of Josh Lowe, the Rays don’t have a reliable left handed hitting outfielder. They already acquired Richie Palacios in a trade with the Cardinals earlier this month, so they are still looking for outfielders. The Brewers who most obviously fit the bill would be either Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell.

For this trade, losing either of the two will hurt the farm, but remember, the Brewers had to part ways with top prospect Lewis Brinson in the Yelich deal. Ramirez is a step down from a 2017-2018 Yelich, so the package won’t cost as much. Mitchell would make the most sense for both sides.

While both outfielders have around the same experience, the Brewers likely value Frelick more. Mitchell has played 47 games and has already used up one of his six years of service time, en route to free agency. His .278/.343/.452 slash line looks promising, even with an injury that took him out for the bulk of the 2023 season. The Crew could throw in pitching prospect Logan Henderson to sweeten the deal. Henderson will more than likely see time in Double A this year, and could make his MLB debut as soon as 2025 if all goes according to plan.

After securing their potential first base platoon with Ramirez and Jake Bauers, the team could pivot and sign a regular DH. Look no further than former World Series MVP, Jorge Soler. Coming off his first All-Star season, Soler is looking for his third World Series ring and hoping to get paid in the process. His 36 homers, .250 batting average, and .512 slugging percentage will earn him a nice payday. That's why he opted out of a deal with the Marlins that would have paid him $13 million in 2024.

According to MLB Trade Rumors back in November, Soler could be paid in the range of a three-year, $45-million type of deal. Seeing as plenty of teams are interested in the player, there will probably be a bidding war, though it's hard to see the market going much further than those numbers now that we've passed the midpoint of January.

If the Brewers want to shore up their designated hitter spot (something they haven’t figured out since the National League adopted the rule), then signing Soler could be the right path. He would lock up that spot for the next few years.

The Ramirez and Soler deals only add around $20 million to the payroll, pushing it to roughly $116 million. That's still $10 million less than they spent last year, which gives the Crew wiggle room to add players at the deadline should they desire.

With Ramirez and Soler in the fold, the team might deploy a regular lineup of:

1. Christian Yelich - LF
2. William Contreras - C
3. Sal Frelick - RF
4. Jorge Soler - DH
5. Willy Adames - SS
6. Harold Ramirez - 1B
7. Jackson Chourio - CF
8. Brice Turang - 2B
9. Andruw Monasterio - 3B

These additions would come at a much lesser cost than the previous pair of moves I proposed, too, leaving more room to supplement the pitching staff and preserving Tyler Black as a candidate to join the lineup midstream. How would you feel about this pair of moves for the Crew? Would it make them sufficiently formidable, offensively? Join the conversation below. We'll discuss one more path to major improvement this weekend.

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[CheezWizHed]

Any thoughts on why Harold Ramirez's trade value is so low in that trade?   Obviously the web site isn't perfect but that seems like a big disparity in the numbers. 

[Ryan Pollak]

40 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Any thoughts on why Harold Ramirez's trade value is so low in that trade?   Obviously the web site isn't perfect but that seems like a big disparity in the numbers. 

I believe it's a combination of him not having any minor league options, having only two years of club control, and the role he has had on all the teams he's been a part of. Ramirez is listed as an outfielder on the website I use so they are judging him as such. Similar to Yelich, his arm strength isn't that strong.

He's more of a contact hitter as well. Prior to his time in Tampa, he was hitting around .270 with little homers to show for it.

No matter what site is used, it will never be able to predict the value of the player to the organization.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Any thoughts on why Harold Ramirez's trade value is so low in that trade?   Obviously the web site isn't perfect but that seems like a big disparity in the numbers. 

Because he has an extremely narrow skillset.

The Good: Among 177 players with at least 800 PA from 2022-23, he comes in at .306 BA (5th) and 123 wRC+ (44th).

The Bad: Among those same 177 players he comes in at 4.7 BB% (169th), .126 ISO (153rd), -22.0 DEF (153rd) and 53.6 GB% (6th).

Add it all up and his 3.0 WAR comes in at 122nd among those 177 players with at least 800 PA from 2022-23. Steamer projects him for a 112 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR, ZiPS is less optimistic at 105 OPS+ and 0.3 WAR for 2024.

To sustain even that middling level of production he has needed to run a ..354 BABIP (4th). Once that comes crashing down it's over.

 

[Outlander]

The Rays always seem to get a young pitcher in return with these trades but in this case there is no reason for Henderson to go as well if Mitchell is being traded. They would maybe even take Henderson for Ramirez straight up.

[jay87shot]

8 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Any thoughts on why Harold Ramirez's trade value is so low in that trade?   Obviously the web site isn't perfect but that seems like a big disparity in the numbers. 

Ramirez has been a poor fielder his entire career which has weakened his value. He only play 92 innings in the field last year (25 at 1B). As a DH he probably has better value than the site lists (especially if they haven't updated it). I still would even want to give up Mitchell for him to be honest. Soler would add some much needed pop, but I wouldnt sign him to more than a 1 year deal with a generous club option. He is just so streaky he worries me.

The best go for it get for me would be to move Yeli to 1st.  Trade Payamps to Balt. for 2B Connor Norby, sign Justin Turner DH/3B/1B

1)LF Frelick 2)C Contreras 3)1B Yeli 4)DH Turner 5) SS Adames 6)RF Mitchell 7) CF Chourio 8)2B Norby/Turang 9)3B Black/Norby   

Turner allows lots of movement between positions, maybe Adames plays some 3rd. Obviously we are still resistant to Yeli at 1st so this is useless.

[Harold Hutchison]

I'd only deal one of Mitchell or Henderson, probably Mitchell if a gun was to my head.

I would also flip Yelich and Frelick. Let Frelick lead off and use his speed. Have Yelich drive him in.