Brewers Get Upside in Corbin Burnes Trade, but Not the Power Guy They Needed

[Tim Muma]

The Milwaukee Brewers finally pulled the trigger on a Corbin Burnes trade. While the two players coming back in the deal have intriguing upside, they fall short of the star prospect splash that should have been the focus.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Though the Milwaukee Brewers didn't hold all the cards in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles, they had the ace in the hole that gave them an edge--but apparently not the nuts. Matt Arnold should have held out longer to acquire third baseman Coby Mayo, a truly elite offensive force with top-level bat speed and pure power. Major-league lineups need legitimate, fear-inducing hitters to lead the way. While Mayo just turned 22 years old and hasn't stepped into the box in an MLB game, he has all the makings of "that guy" for years to come.

There's a reason Mayo was the Orioles' third-ranked farmhand, and a top-30 prospect in all of baseball. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Mayo posted a .290/.410/.563 slash line, with 29 homers, 45 doubles, 99 RBI and 93 walks across 140 games. The best offenses have dynamic hitters like Mayo and Jackson Chourio to have consistent success and (eventually) collect postseason victories. Those types of guys have been lacking in the Brewers' lineup since they lost the MVP version of Christian Yelich near the end of 2019. Having a bunch of average to above-average guys only works if you have two or three studs to throw the knockout blows.


Of course, there is no such thing as a can't-miss prospect, but if you were going to come up with a prototype offensive weapon that would hit "21" in prospect blackjack, Mayo is it. Plus, he has a cannon for an arm playing the hot corner, a position the Brewers have failed to lock down for more than a year or two at a time. Mayo is the "Dude" you sell out for when trading, arguably, the best pitcher in your franchise's history.

 

Even if the Brewers might have gotten a lower-level prospect (or just the competitive-balance pick) to go with Mayo, you have to gamble a little on perceived elite talent. Instead, pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz, while owning some of the tools to be impact players, aren't on the top of scouts' lists like Mayo. For various reasons, they haven't hit their original ceilings yet and have slid down the charts a touch. What adds to the disappointment in the trade is that Milwaukee has had no problem finding and developing plenty of guys like Hall and Ortiz. Their organization's skill is taking hurlers with "stuff" and turning them into bona fide, more well-rounded pitchers. They've also acquired their share of defensive stalwarts over the years, in their quest for a run-prevention-led strategy.

Meanwhile, promoting high-level bats that enjoy long-term success in the big leagues has been a consistent issue for the Brewers. Whether it's been selecting the wrong options in the draft or through trades or failing to develop them once in the system, the problem has recurred. All of this screams "take the near-certain impact masher" over any other option. Plus, Baltimore had no real spot open within their stacked, young infield, and it seemed frustration was growing with Hall, at least in the Orioles' struggles to develop him. It just makes it feel like Milwaukee got some of the extra parts, instead of a true engine. Now it's on the Brewers to work their magic.

Joey Ortiz needed to be moved. A slick infielder in an org with Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, etc. Now the #Brewers’ fifth Top 100 prospect: https://t.co/TpVloENtPc

DL Hall was one of the first in the @mlbpipeline Pitching Lab: https://t.co/A7WXNQUb2b

— Sam Dykstra (@SamDykstraMiLB) February 2, 2024

Reports say the two clubs had been discussing a trade for Burnes since December, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic claiming it was the Brewers holding things up. (This has yet to be confirmed anywhere else, though.) Could it be they were trying to hold out for Mayo? Might the Orioles have gotten to the point of desperation once spring training hit, and dealt the big third baseman? Maybe one day we'll have an answer. Again, Ortiz has some hit tools, particularly exit velocity results, that could translate to the big club. He lost one season to Covid and another one to injury. Hall matches Ortiz on the eye-popping potential from the mound, making him a possible weapon out of the pen or a starter with a no-hit ceiling on any given night.

So, the trade isn't lopsided; I just believe they missed out getting the type of hitter that is rarely available without an enormous price tag. "You can shake a dozen glove men out of a tree, but it's the bat that separates the men from the boys," Dale Long once said. Long was a slugger himself, so we'll dock him a bit for speaking out of self-interest, but that sentiment wasn't original or unique. The Brewers shook a tree and scooped up the fallen fruit, rather than fighting harder for a hitter who might have been a greater separator for them.

Of course, there is the possibility that Baltimore told Arnold and company that acquiring Mayo was a non-starter. Milwaukee still could have pushed and called their potential bluff, knowing at worst the Brewers would be a contender in the NL Central and get a compensation pick for Burnes. The other thought is that the Brewers were set on getting one pitcher and one position player back, with an eye on a shortstop to take over for Willy Adames and a pitcher to replace Burnes. Plus, with guys like Tyler Black, Brock Wilken and Mike Boeve waiting in the minors for a shot at third base, it might not have been a concern for Arnold.

I'd still argue you get the best offensive talent you can if you're Milwaukee, because no one has a guaranteed spot, and runs have been at a premium recently. You can always find spots on the field (or on another team) if you have "too many" good hitters. That hasn't been the case in Milwaukee for quite a while.

It will be a few years before anyone will know the score of this trade. It does, in theory, fill the needs of each organization. The Brewers must always keep an eye on the future when contracts are expiring, even if it means taking a short-term dip in performance. You hope Mayo doesn't become the perennial All-Star and possible MVP that some predict could reside in the thunder of his lumber, or that one of Ortiz and Hall blossom into the star they each have some chance to become.

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Did the Brewers give up too easily on a chance to acquire Mayo? Do you think they can get a similar level of offensive excellence from an in-house option? Drop into the comments to weigh in.

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[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This article makes A LOT of assumptions. Like you mention, Mayo may not have even been available, especially for one year of a pitcher. Also, while there is a lot to like with Mayo, he's likely not going to be able to play 3B at an MLB level, which means he's either a 1B or DH long term. Ortiz has the glove to stick at SS, a much more valuable defensive position.

[gregmag]

After “apparently not the nuts,” I refuse to take anything in this article seriously.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Tim Muma said:

Of course, there is the possibility that Baltimore told Arnold and company that acquiring Mayo was a non-starter.

BTV has six years of Mayo with $43.7M in surplus value versus one year of Burnes at $33.3M, so this is the most likely possibility.

Or maybe the Orioles said sure, we’ll give you Mayo, but we’re going to need someone like Gasser ($10.5M), Brock Wilken ($8.9M) or Payamps ($8.8M) included to even things out.

Or maybe the Brewers didn’t have a singular focus on getting power back instead focusing on getting what they viewed as the best overall return.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't see not getting Mayo as a big negative.  Brock Wilken plays the same position and could shoot up prospect lists with a good year in the high minors this year (Keith Law already has him in his top 100).  Wilken didn't show a ton of power in the minors last year but I'm sure the Brewers expect him to be a 25 HR guy.

[SF70]

Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development.

They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth.

Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.

[Tim Muma]

16 minutes ago, gregmag said:

After “apparently not the nuts,” I refuse to take anything in this article seriously.

I'm sorry you didn't understand the gambling/poker reference this refers to. In that same sentence I reference ace in the hole & hold all the cards.

[Tim Muma]

46 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

This article makes A LOT of assumptions. Like you mention, Mayo may not have even been available, especially for one year of a pitcher. Also, while there is a lot to like with Mayo, he's likely not going to be able to play 3B at an MLB level, which means he's either a 1B or DH long term. Ortiz has the glove to stick at SS, a much more valuable defensive position.

I like Ortiz a lot and value defense...probably way more than the average person. I really hope his hit tools can translate to some success in the majors. And I completely understand why they might have targeted him.

In terms of Mayo, I actually think by acknowledging in the article he might not be available, that I was limiting the assumptions. And I take some exception to the idea that there are "A LOT" of assumptions. One could argue it is just as assumptious that he WASN'T available. No one has said either way. And true, he might not stick at 3B long term, but for me, considering where the Brewers have come up short, the elite power bat is extremely valuable. Even at 1B, where before they signed Hoskins, it's been a revolving door.

[Tim Muma]

36 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

BTV has six years of Mayo with $43.7M in surplus value versus one year of Burnes at $33.3M, so this is the most likely possibility.

Or maybe the Orioles said sure, we’ll give you Mayo, but we’re going to need someone like Gasser ($10.5M), Brock Wilken ($8.9M) or Payamps ($8.8M) included to even things out.

Or maybe the Brewers didn’t have a singular focus on getting power back instead focusing on getting what they viewed as the best overall return.

That is certainly possible they would have wanted more. And who knows, depending on what else the Brewers would have been willing to give up, they could have had Mayo plus Ortiz or Hall. Like I commented to the other person, we are ALL making assumptions because we aren't in the those negotiating rooms.

For the record, I might have actually been good with including Payamps, especially if the Brewers are keeping Williams for this season at least. Milwaukee's bullpen is stacked. But that is how high I am on Mayo. Just my opinion of his value based on what I've seen on the field, things I've read from scouts, etc.

I think people need to realize that, while I believe they COULD have gotten Mayo and should have pushed harder (IF they didn't), that doesn't mean the Brewers failed or that the return won't pan out great. Sometimes I'm right about stuff, and sometimes I'm wrong.

[Tim Muma]

42 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

I don't see not getting Mayo as a big negative.  Brock Wilken plays the same position and could shoot up prospect lists with a good year in the high minors this year (Keith Law already has him in his top 100).  Wilken didn't show a ton of power in the minors last year but I'm sure the Brewers expect him to be a 25 HR guy.

Sure, I get that. But MAYBE he doesn't pan out. Or he doesn't reach his ceiling. It reminds of when I was pushing hard for the Brewers to trade for Yelich after the 2017 season. 90% of people said it was dumb because they had Braun, Keon Broxton (who I thought already peaked), Domingo Santana (who I liked a lot), and then Brett Phillips ready to play, too. "We don't need another outfielder!"

Broxton played 2 more seasons in MLB (done at age 29). Sanatana played 3 more seasons in MLB (done at 27), and Phillips has been "a guy" around the league. Besides that, when you think you can acquire elite talent, you can't have enough. Maybe I will be wrong on Mayo...but the Brewers others guys might not work out, either. And you really should have power at 3B, 1B and DH, so plenty of spots to work with, IMO.

[Tim Muma]

44 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development.

They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth.

Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.

I'd truly like to know how you think I was "disparaging" the Brewers struggles to develop young hitters? I think it's fantastic they are ranked so highly and I can't wait to see more of Black, Chourio, Frelick and others. But the truth is, they have had far more success getting guys into MLB and getting top-level results from their pitching work. They have a tremendous opportunity over the next 6-8 years to prove their offensive analysis and development has taken a turn, but that doesn't change the recent history.

And I agree Wilken could be that guy at 3B. You still want power at 1B and DH...and that is IF Wilken works out. Sometimes we believe all of our own guys will reach their potential while other teams' players will struggle. Again, I get why they pulled the trigger on the deal and NONE of us know who or what was discussed between the teams, so we're ALL making some assumptions. The funny thing is...I hope the Brewers are right and successful with Hall and Ortiz, even if it "makes me look stupid."  

[Trax]

This trade was about what I expected for Burnes, but I too was hopeful for more and Mayo was on my radar.

Other teams were sniffing at Burnes too and apparently this was the best offer the Brewers could get.  I would agree a goodly return but far from top end potential.

It is Adamas's turn and time is running out.  By trade or signing I would like to see a legitimate MLB starter added.  I doubt Adamas brings that but here is where we could add a soon to be future power bat to the lineup.  3B/1B preferably.  They are out there.

 

[Sugarrayray]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Disagree with virtually every opinion in the article. Agree with the takes from the posters above so I won’t repeat, but I do take issue with the disparaging opinions on the teams recent drafts and hitting development.

They aren’t the second best farm in baseball because of their pitching depth.

Wilken could end up just as good of a power threat and he could actually be a 3B in the bigs.

Well, they could have the best farm stocked full of mashers in the world, it still doesn’t change the fact that have not developed one single difference making offensive player who has proven it at the major league level. The Brewers have a fantastic farm system that is deep and wide and have been developing pitchers for years now. But it is not necessarily disparaging to point out an industry accepted fact that the Brewers have had a giant hole in their system at developing hitters for almost a decade. And I am of the mind that that narrative will change this year or next, finally. But until then, it still stands.

[gregmag]

3 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

I'm sorry you didn't understand the gambling/poker reference this refers to. In that same sentence I reference ace in the hole & hold all the cards.

Fair enough.  I know nothing about poker (though the other two references are common enough that I get them).  All I can do is read what you write with my ordinary understanding of what words mean.

[Profbratsch]

So far I have yet to hear about where Mayo ranks as a defender at the hot corner. One only needs to look a at a trade the Milwaukee Bucks made when they acquired Damian Lillard. Instant offense (most of the time), but the defensive vacuum created by the loss of Jrue Holiday has arguably made the Bucks worse, not better.

I hope the corollary makes a bit of sense...

[Tim Muma]

10 minutes ago, Profbratsch said:

So far I have yet to hear about where Mayo ranks as a defender at the hot corner. One only needs to look a at a trade the Milwaukee Bucks made when they acquired Damian Lillard. Instant offense (most of the time), but the defensive vacuum created by the loss of Jrue Holiday has arguably made the Bucks worse, not better.

I hope the corollary makes a bit of sense...

From MLB Pipeline:  "One of the strongest arms in the system, if not the Minor Leagues, works very well for third base. Even though he currently moves surprisingly well for his size, there are concerns that he will outgrow the ability to play third and there’s a chance he ends up at first or left field when all is said and done. The kind of consistent power production the Orioles think he can provide will work from any spot on the diamond."

Chances are he would move to 1B or LF in the next 2-3 years, but again, tough to pass up (potential) elite level bats. Not sure Wilken will be great at 3B defensively. Tyler Black might struggle because of his arm. Ortiz (now) is the best option. But next year he should be at SS anyway.

[Profbratsch]

How about Devin, Wiemer and the draft pick we got from the Orioles for Gunnar Henderson (instead of Mayo)?

[wallus]

15 minutes ago, Profbratsch said:

How about Devin, Wiemer and the draft pick we got from the Orioles for Gunnar Henderson (instead of Mayo)?

No way the Orioles trade Henderson, come on man...

[Profbratsch]

It’s not as though the Orioles would not gain an elite player in Devin. If they are going to make a run to the Series, there can never be enough first-class arms.

[wallus]

Let's just ignore the fact that you can't trade a Competitive Balance pick more than once and examine your trade idea. According to BTV, it has Henderson at 104.1 and the package we would be sending the O's at 41.90. 

To put that in perspective, you would need to nearly add an Ozzie Albies' worth of value to make this fair.

[SF70]

4 hours ago, Tim Muma said:

I'd truly like to know how you think I was "disparaging" the Brewers struggles to develop young hitters? I think it's fantastic they are ranked so highly and I can't wait to see more of Black, Chourio, Frelick and others. But the truth is, they have had far more success getting guys into MLB and getting top-level results from their pitching work. They have a tremendous opportunity over the next 6-8 years to prove their offensive analysis and development has taken a turn, but that doesn't change the recent history.

And I agree Wilken could be that guy at 3B. You still want power at 1B and DH...and that is IF Wilken works out. Sometimes we believe all of our own guys will reach their potential while other teams' players will struggle. Again, I get why they pulled the trigger on the deal and NONE of us know who or what was discussed between the teams, so we're ALL making some assumptions. The funny thing is...I hope the Brewers are right and successful with Hall and Ortiz, even if it "makes me look stupid."  

Tod Johnson & co. 

Prior to his hiring the team had a decade of poor drafting and development, But after a slow start in ‘17 with the Hiura pick, and a poor ‘19 class, they have really hit their stride with good to great drafts since that have helped make the farm almost the equal of Baltimore, a team with numerous top 5 picks and massive pool monies.

The changes Stearns started making to the hitting development department 3-4 years ago appears to be working with numerous prospects now making improvements in the box.

After last year’s draft, we now have some power potential added with Wilken-Pratt-Bitonti, and potentially more coming with up to $30M in pool money and 6 of the top 40 picks in the next 2 drafts. 

I think it’s just as difficult to find a plus defender at SS that can hit the ball hard (Ortiz) as a power hitting bat (Mayo) that can hit in the MOTO.

[Brewcrew82]

You know what "World Series teams" need even more than the Coby Mayo's of the world?

1) High level SS play....We have Adames now, yes, but we won't after the season....

2) Elite "stuff" arms. Yeah, we gave one up in Burnes, but we just gained 6 years of control with another one in Hall.

You demand and hold out for Mayo in this trade (who has an appreciably higher surplus value btw), and you get neither of these things and are most likely having to add in additional pieces like Gasser, etc. We got both of them in one trade. And already have a guy who's one year, maybe less, from being a Coby Mayo in Wilken. 

I respectfully disagree with the premise of this article.

 

[Profbratsch]

51 minutes ago, wallus said:

Let's just ignore the fact that you can't trade a Competitive Balance pick more than once and examine your trade idea. According to BTV, it has Henderson at 104.1 and the package we would be sending the O's at 41.90. 

To put that in perspective, you would need to nearly add an Ozzie Albies' worth of value to make this fair.

I was not aware of the ramifications of the Competitive Balance pick, and I admit to being clueless about analytics. What you have said makes sense to me now-thanks.

 

[SF70]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

You know what "World Series teams" need even more than the Coby Mayo's of the world?

1) High level SS play....We have Adames now, yes, but we won't after the season....

2) Elite "stuff" arms. Yeah, we gave one up in Burnes, but we just gained 6 years of control with another one in Hall.

You demand and hold out for Mayo in this trade (who has an appreciably higher surplus value btw), and you get neither of these things and are most likely having to add in additional pieces like Gasser, etc. We got both of them in one trade. And already have a guy who's one year, maybe less, from being a Coby Mayo in Wilken. 

I respectfully disagree with the premise of this article.

 

Well said.

Lets also add getting the 34th pick and $2.6M in pool money we will use to add what will likely be more impact talent to the system.

The 34th pick on its own is pretty close to a team’s 10th best prospect, depending on the system strength. 

But getting 3 of Baltimore’s top 10-type prospects if we include the pick is actually quite the haul.