Is Christian Yelich a Viable No. 3 Hitter in 2024?

[Matthew Trueblood]

After a fairly busy winter, the Milwaukee Brewers have a more functional lineup going into 2024 than they had for most of 2023. There’s still a weird fit to figure out near the top of that batting order, though.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Look around the internet a bit, and you’ll find some projections of the Brewers lineup that have Christian Yelich batting first, and others that have him batting third. Most sources agree that William Contreras will resume his frequent 2023 duties as the No. 2 hitter, and that Rhys Hoskins has come in to be the cleanup man, but Yelich and Sal Frelick keep being shuffled around. That’s because neither is exactly optimal as a third hitter. Willy Adames might be the closest thing the Brewers have to the ideal of that hitter type, but after Adames’s uneven 2023, it’s hard to pencil him into that slot, so it’s Yelich and Frelick who have populated it in most early formulations.

Each has obvious shortcomings, when it comes to a No. 3 hitter. Neither is a slugger in the conventional modern way. As has been well-documented, Frelick struggles with the simplest and most indispensable duty of a middle-of-the-order hitter: he just doesn’t hit the ball hard. Yelich does, but as Brewers fans know too well, it’s too often on the ground. Frelick’s best role is clearly at the very top of the lineup, or near the bottom. For Yelich, batting third should be more of a conversation, so let’s have it.

The biggest problem with having a ground ball hitter bat third is that they generally don’t hit for any power. For a few years, that was even true of Yelich, who otherwise impressively defies convention in this way. We all know about the transformation he undertook in 2018 and 2019, hitting the ball in the air often enough to tap into his extraordinary power potential and becoming one of the best players in the sport. After that fateful foul ball off his knee, though, he wallowed for three years in mediocrity, and specifically, he spent 2021 and 2022 buried in powerlessness. He slugged just .379 across those two seasons.

Last season, though, Yelich bounced back. Even as he was moved to the leadoff spot to maximize the value of his on-base skills and mitigate the impact of his deficient pop, he got some of that pop back. With a .447 slugging average and .169 ISO, Yelich still looked more like his pre-MVP self than the peak version, but it was a huge stride back in the right direction.

The ban on infield shifts probably helped. Yelich's BABIP leavened, which doesn't much affect his ISO but nudges his SLG upward by raising his batting average. It was more than just extra ground balls getting through, though. Yelich hit a few more balls straight down and got his best batted balls off the ground a bit more than he had over the previous few seasons, though not back to the level he reached when he nearly won two straight MVP awards.

Even relative to his 2015-17 self, Yelich hit fewer balls weakly and fewer in that maddening middle range (80-100 MPH ground balls, which turn into outs just about every time and into double plays when a guy bats third and comes up often with runners on base and less than two outs) last year. Let's also note the relative dearth of lazy fly balls. He was certainly driving the ball in the air less often than he did at his best, but he wasn't making many truly easy outs.

There's a segment of the charts above that might lend especially good insight: hard-hit balls (north of 95 miles per hour) at launch angles between -5 and 10 degrees.

These points are all colored according to expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). As you can see, Yelich hit many fewer of the lowest-value balls in this subset (the ones at the lowest launch angles, below 0) in 2023 than in the past, even compared to his best years. He seems to have found the sweet spot, at least for one year, where he can hit the ball hard without sacrificing contact rate in order to try to lift it.

It's still unlikely that Yelich recaptures the kind of power you want from a No. 3 hitter. If he can sustain the small changes he made to his batted-ball profile in 2023, though, he shouldn't kill the team with double-play grounders. It's a fragile balance we're seeking here, and it's still an issue that Yelich and Contreras (in whichever order you prefer, the two best hitters on the team) are both ground-ball guys. It's not reasonable or necessary to expect Yelich to change his stripes now, though. He's going to generate sufficient punch to be a middle-of-the-order guy, even if his profile leans unusually heavily on OBP. With any luck, the Crew will be playing lots of first-to-third baseball at the top of the order in 2024, and it will be up to Hoskins to play the traditional cleanup role from there.

---

Are you optimistic about Yelich's 2024, based on the adjustments he made in 2023? How would you align the team, based on the current position-player roster? Join the conversation.

View full article

[Brock Beauchamp]

Frelick had an OPS just under .700 and an OBP under .350 with little to no power. It seems utter madness to even include him in a top-of-the-order conversation. Maybe he gets there in 2024 but he needs to be a lot more fearsome with the stick before it's even a consideration. It's not ideal but I'd start the season with this:

Yelich
Contreras
Adames
Hoskins

If Adames doesn't rebound, I'd move him down and adjust accordingly, even putting Hoskins in the third spot - where he's not an ideal fit - because guys who hit should get the most PAs.

[Ignitor 4ever]

Another consideration for batting Yelich third is the protection he would now have in the line up from Contreras hitting ahead of him and Hoskins behind him.  When Yelich was at his best, he had guys around him who could hit so he saw better pitches.  In 2019, for example, there was Moustakas (who hit 35 HR that year), Grandal (who hit 28 HR) along with Ryan Braun (22 HR) and Eric Thames (25 HR).  There was pop up and down that line up and Yelich thrived.  I throw out 2020 and 2021 due to Covid and Yelich struggling to recover from the knee injury.  He has not had really good protection in the line up since 2019, certainly not last year.  

I think adding Hoskins to the line up and Contreras continuing to improve will help.  If Adames can somehow turn out a big year at the plate, even better.  I think you start Yelich in the lead off spot and see what he does, but I see him migrating to the 3 hole tucked in between Contreras and Hoskins.

[RobDeer 45]

Why not put Yelich first, followed by Contreras and then Hoskins?  I'd rather have our best hitters at the top instead of making Hoskins a "clean up" hitter.  Unless someone becomes a good OBP guys, then we can bump him back.

[eddiemathews]

Contreras is a double play threat, too, but he really stresses pitchers at the 2nd spot. If I were making out the lineup I'd leave Yeli at lead-off and slide in one of Mitchell, Chourio, Adames, or even Black at 3 depending on spring training trends. Then you adjust as the season goes along for who is hot, who is effective, who they are facing...etc. I'd hit Frelick ninth. Actually, I'd work him out at second base and see if it's at all possible. There's plenty of outfielders, and Sal's bat would be much more palatable as a second baseman. Unlikely, I know.

[jay87shot]

I am all about Sal Frelick batting lead-off vs. RHP (eventually LHP) as well. Sure his stats don't jump off the page but he did have a .341 obp and  Ithink anyone who watched him everyday saw the ability of a top leadoff guy. With 191 pa a couple bad weeks can spoil a stat line, I am very confident Frelick will hit .260-.300 with a obp north of .350. At leadoff the slugging really doesn't matter to me especially since he can steal bases. 

I know we have usually liked to alternate handed-ness but I am kind of fond of Frelick, Yelich, Contreras, Hoskins, Adames, I always like the best hitter at #3 and I think Contreras edges out Yeli and then Hoskins/Adames 4/5 is better than 1 of them at #2.

I am not against Yelich at 1 or 3 by any means, I am sure that the lineup will be fluid and there will be times he should be hitting 3 and times when he should lead-off. Lots of ebb and flow without the current roster construction.

[Trax]

I would start Yelly leadoff but I would as the year went on arrange my lineup based on current production.  Chourio  if he develops quickly will likely end up at 3 but you sure don't want that pressure on him right away.  Make the players including the high paid ones EARN their slot.  If Yelly is hitting with some real power then move him to 3, Black and Frelick are natural lead off guys.

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Frelick had an OPS just under .700 and an OBP under .350 with little to no power. It seems utter madness to even include him in a top-of-the-order conversation. Maybe he gets there in 2024 but he needs to be a lot more fearsome with the stick before it's even a consideration. It's not ideal but I'd start the season with this:

Yelich
Contreras
Adames
Hoskins

If Adames doesn't rebound, I'd move him down and adjust accordingly, even putting Hoskins in the third spot - where he's not an ideal fit - because guys who hit should get the most PAs.

It's important to remember that occurred in a SSS, and while Frelick was still dealing with the lingering effects of a  thumb injury. The very sort of injury that saps players of their power

His 13% BB rate is more important imo when considering his leadoff potential. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's important to remember that occurred in a SSS, and while Frelick was still dealing with the lingering effects of a  thumb injury. The very sort of injury that saps players of their power

His 13% BB rate is more important imo when considering his leadoff potential. 

Oh, I'm not writing off Frelick as a leadoff guy, only that he has to prove he can post better numbers than he did in 2023 before I put him there. If he gets his OBP to .370 or higher and bumps that avg/slg a little, he's a good leadoff candidate.

[Bashopolis]

The key to the Brewers season may be if one of Frelick, Black, Chourio, or Mitchel can give the team a consistent .360 or above OBP.  If one of the young players can do this, or at least do this against righthanded pitching, I could see them moving into the lead off spot and moving others down the line up.   This can provide a block of hitters that can produce positive outcomes.  

It would be better to see Contreras move down to third in the line up if another player, a faster player, and Yelich can get on base  enough while also showing at least extra base power.  

The other concern is:  does Yelich regress?  It was great to see him return to being at least an above average player, but is this change sustainable?  And why for two years was his production significantly worse?  If this is health related, Yelich is on the other side of peak, so that could be concerning.  

Edited February 14, 2024 by Bashopolis
added a line of info

[Michael Trzinski]

21 hours ago, RobDeer 45 said:

Why not put Yelich first, followed by Contreras and then Hoskins?  I'd rather have our best hitters at the top instead of making Hoskins a "clean up" hitter.  Unless someone becomes a good OBP guys, then we can bump him back.

Rob, you need to come back and be our #4 slugger 🙂

[RobDeer 45]

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

Rob, you need to come back and be our #4 slugger 🙂

How good would he be in today's game?  He was ahead of his time!

[Michael Trzinski]

On 2/14/2024 at 10:05 AM, RobDeer 45 said:

How good would he be in today's game?  He was ahead of his time!

He was a decent player with power and a good arm. Seems he was kinda fast, maybe ran like a ...deer?😁