Matt Arnold Effectively Managed Resources in an Eventful Offseason

[Jack Stern]

The Milwaukee Brewers’ offseason moves left many observers scratching their heads, but the club always had a defined objective. General Manager Matt Arnold balanced several moving pieces throughout the organization and executed the vision exceptionally well.

Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK

After a swift dismissal in the National League Wild Card Series in October, the focus in Milwaukee immediately shifted to an offseason of change.

It became apparent that manager Craig Counsell would test free agency, instead of signing an extension. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Willy Adames’s contracts were each set to expire after the 2024 season, sparking passionate debates about potential trades and extensions.

The widespread thinking was that an organization in the Brewers’ position had two paths forward: go all-in for one last ride or tear it down. Either way, an end to a competitive window was approaching.

That belief solidified after Counsell shockingly crossed state lines to manage the Chicago Cubs and the Brewers non-tendered Woodruff in the wake of his shoulder surgery. Owner Mark Attanasio and General Manager Matt Arnold faced difficult decisions that would have serious implications for the franchise.

Arnold indeed made many tough decisions in a very active winter, but the final product of his moves did not fit the expectations of many observers.

The club kicked things off by trading Mark Canha to the Detroit Tigers instead of picking up his club option. It won the Rhys Hoskins sweepstakes in late January, only for Arnold to trade Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles less than a week later. The Brewers held onto Adames, signed Jakob Junis and Gary Sánchez to one-year deals, and re-signed Woodruff last week to a two-year contract covering his rehab and return.

National pundits and portions of the fan base grew increasingly confused with each twist. They perceived the Hoskins signing as a signal that the Brewers chose the all-in path. When Burnes became an Oriole days later, they questioned the prompt U-turn toward the fire sale approach.

Trying to put the Brewers’ competitive approach into one of those two boxes is a futile exercise. The organization has been transparent about its process over the past couple of years. Anyone who listened to the messaging shouldn’t be surprised by anything the club has done over the last few months.

Despite the poor reception when David Stearns characterized it as taking “bites of the apple,” the Brewers’ organizational philosophy has not changed. They reject the notion that there are only two effective paths toward a World Series title, nor do they think in terms of strict competitive windows tied to specific players. Instead, the Brewers believe the best path to a championship in baseball’s smallest market is to make the playoffs as many years as possible.

Competing every year requires excellent player development, the right balance of moves that address short- and long-term, and excellent management of organizational resources. Arnold was especially tasked with the latter two objectives this winter, and did a phenomenal job.

Power was the Brewers’ top need. Hoskins and Sánchez are perfect fits. While the former’s deal carries some risk if he struggles after returning from ACL reconstruction, neither player will handcuff the team financially on short-term deals.

Decisions on pending free agents require carefully weighing long-term gain against short-term loss. The Brewers played that pro-and-con game in deciding on the futures of Burnes and Adames.

Burnes was not going to take a discounted extension to remain with the Brewers, nor was offering him a market value deal wise for the team after they had already received what could be the best seasons of his career. While the Brewers will not be able to backfill the entirety of Burnes’ value in the rotation, they are well-equipped to survive without him as one of baseball’s best pitching development organizations.

The long-term benefit of trading Burnes outweighed the potential short-term hit. It made the most sense to deal him, and Arnold found a satisfactory package of Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a compensatory pick.

Adames’s situation is different. Milwaukee’s hitting development appears to have made strides in recent years, but the results have yet to reach the big leagues. The organization also lacks long-term shortstop options to replace Adames, particularly after Brice Turang looked overpowered by MLB fastballs as a rookie. Furthermore, Adames is at the heart of the clubhouse culture and has spoken openly about his desire to remain in Milwaukee on a new contract.

In this instance, one could argue that the shockwaves resulting from an Adames trade would outweigh the value of the return. The balance would swing out of the competitive zone. It seems the Brewers agree, as Adames remains with the team.

Arnold’s balancing act extends beyond the big-league roster. He has also dipped into the organization’s minor-league depth, trading away redundant prospects for players with more immediate MLB upside.

Arnold traded for second baseman Oliver Dunn, first baseman Jake Bauers, and relievers Bryan Hudson and Taylor Clarke. He parted with prospects Hendry Mendez, Robert Moore, Jace Avina, Brian Sanchez, Justin Chambers, Cam Devanney, and Ryan Brady.

Mendez and Moore struggled in High A in 2023. Avina has impressive power but has struck out at alarming rates in the low minors. Chambers has yet to throw a professional pitch and is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Devanney is blocked at every position around the infield and took a step back offensively in Triple A last year.

These prospects were low on the organizational depth chart, but the players the Brewers got in return could all help in 2024 and beyond.

Dunn and Bauers flashed incredible power last year and could join Hoskins and Sánchez in boosting the Brewers in that category. Hudson ran high strikeout and ground ball rates in Triple-A last year, and Clarke has excellent breaking stuff.

The cantilevered approach the Brewers have chosen is difficult to execute, but Arnold pulled it off this winter. He opportunistically added power bats on short-term deals, struck a delicate balance between trading away and retaining pending free agents, and used expendable prospects to add upside players to the 40-man roster.

The resulting roster lacks the elite starting rotation of past seasons, and many projection systems believe it will cost the Brewers a handful of wins. However, the club will be more balanced in 2024 than in the last couple of campaigns.

The offense is deeper, gained some needed firepower, and the defense and bullpen remain strong. Unlike the 2023 team that featured one of baseball’s worst lineups, this year’s squad should be competent or better in every facet of the game.

Entering an offseason under such uncertain circumstances and emerging with that improved outlook is impressive. Arnold and the entire front office deserve credit for it.

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[eddiemathews]

Nicely done, Jack. Look forward to your deep-dive articles. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Everybody welcome Jack Stern! Personally, I've been trying to figure out ways to recruit him for about a year, so flippin' excited it finally happened! He'll be traveling to AZ for a week in March to cover the team on-site.

[Frisbee Slider]

What an unlikely headline, if we judged by a month ago standards.

[SF70]

Absolutely nailed this team’s offseason and overall philosophy of team building.

We are so fortunate to have Arnold leading this organization. I thought David Stearns was as good as it gets, but Arnold has taken the batan and moved this organization beyond anything I could have imagined.

And it’s a good thing since this division is a future monstrosity, with 4 of the 5 teams having as good or better of young talent as there is in the game from any one team.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Everybody welcome Jack Stern! Personally, I've been trying to figure out ways to recruit him for about a year, so flippin' excited it finally happened! He'll be traveling to AZ for a week in March to cover the team on-site.

[Joseph Zarr]

Perhaps the biggest Brewers off-season get right here. Grab a beer, folks. We got an Ace.

[Secret Stadium Sauce]

I'm hoping the offense is really improved.  If so, this could be an exciting year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Secret Stadium Sauce said:

I'm hoping the offense is really improved.  If so, this could be an exciting year.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[JohnBriggs12]

I still think he made a mistake dealing Hauser and Taylor and getting little other than some modest salary relief in return.  If he were still on the team, Hauser would be slotted in right now as the 3rd or 4th starter and still could have trade value at the deadline.

The argument for dealing Taylor was it alleviated a crowded outfield but in my mind you don't just give away good players and Taylor is a good, solid major league outfielder in the prime of his career that still is cheap at just over $2 million this season.  Fact is that Taylor is coming off the best 2 months of his career.  Give him 3-4 more months in a Brewer uniform putting up those kind of numbers and he'd be in significantly more demand as a trade piece than he was this winter.  Now if Chourio rakes out of the gate and/or Wiemer's swing changes bear immediate fruit, then great, but there's no veteran fall back outfielder currently on the roster. 

[Frisbee Slider]

6 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

If he were still on the team, Hauser would be slotted in right now as the 3rd or 4th starter and still could have trade value at the deadline.

Since we have limited resources, would you rather have Houser in the rotation and Jake Bauers at 1B? We likely don’t have Hoskins without salary relief. 
 

‘I’d want both’ is understandable but perhaps unrealistic.

[SF70]

6 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

I still think he made a mistake dealing Hauser and Taylor and getting little other than some modest salary relief in return.  If he were still on the team, Hauser would be slotted in right now as the 3rd or 4th starter and still could have trade value at the deadline.

The argument for dealing Taylor was it alleviated a crowded outfield but in my mind you don't just give away good players and Taylor is a good, solid major league outfielder in the prime of his career that still is cheap at just over $2 million this season.  Fact is that Taylor is coming off the best 2 months of his career.  Give him 3-4 more months in a Brewer uniform putting up those kind of numbers and he'd be in significantly more demand as a trade piece than he was this winter.  Now if Chourio rakes out of the gate and/or Wiemer's swing changes bear immediate fruit, then great, but there's no veteran fall back outfielder currently on the roster. 

Nah, the Houser/TT trade was about more than just salary relief, adding a future potential mid-rotation arm to the organization in Coleman Crow.

Trading from depth positions — team has many Houser type starter arms (most if not all considerably cheaper options) and boatloads of OF’s. 

The money saved helped the team improve in other areas of the team that needed strengthening, like offensive firepower.

[eddiemathews]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

Nah, the Houser/TT trade was about more than just salary relief, adding a future potential mid-rotation arm to the organization in Coleman Crow.

Trading from depth positions — team has many Houser type starter arms (most if not all considerably cheaper options) and boatloads of OF’s. 

The money saved helped the team improve in other areas of the team that needed strengthening, like offensive firepower.

But then they signed Junis, and he's more or less the same pitcher, results wise - and he's gonna cost about double after all is said and done.

[sveumrules]

43 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

But then they signed Junis, and he's more or less the same pitcher, results wise - and he's gonna cost about double after all is said and done.

I'm seeing $7M guaranteed ($12M if the rarely exercised mutual option is picked up) for Junis, versus $5M for Houser this year, so only a couple million more in the most likely scenario.

The dreaded projections on FanGraphs depth charts have Houser down for 128 IP of 4.56 ERA / 4.70 FIP shaking out to 1.0 WAR versus 125 IP of 4.34 ERA / 4.33 FIP for Junis shaking out to 1.7 WAR.

I'm guessing the Brewers internal projections spit out something similar and they also feel like there is still meat on the developmental bone for Junis, whereas they've done all they can do with Houser and he is who he is at this point. 

Plus they get a prospect they liked too.

[eddiemathews]

25 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I'm seeing $7M guaranteed ($12M if the rarely exercised mutual option is picked up) for Junis, versus $5M for Houser this year, so only a couple million more in the most likely scenario.

The dreaded projections on FanGraphs depth charts have Houser down for 128 IP of 4.56 ERA / 4.70 FIP shaking out to 1.0 WAR versus 125 IP of 4.34 ERA / 4.33 FIP for Junis shaking out to 1.7 WAR.

I'm guessing the Brewers internal projections spit out something similar and they also feel like there is still meat on the developmental bone for Junis, whereas they've done all they can do with Houser and he is who he is at this point. 

Plus they get a prospect they liked too.

Yeah, I read that wrong...that he was getting $7mm plus the buyout. As to performance...I trust the Brewers' evaluations more than other projections. And moving TT made a bit more money available for the Chourio extension.

[SF70]

1 hour ago, eddiemathews said:

But then they signed Junis, and he's more or less the same pitcher, results wise - and he's gonna cost about double after all is said and done.

My guess is the team wanted Crow pretty bad and think they can get more out of Junis than Houser.

Not sure Junis is all that more expensive than houser either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think off-season is more transactional than people are considering in this topic. I suspect Arnold liked the value he was getting in the Houser/Taylor trade. He felt the long term value was good on it while it presented payroll flexibility in the short term. So he made the trade.

That then left the Brewers short-handed in pitching once the Burnes trade actually happened. So Arnold went and got Junis.

Each of these events were only loosely connected and not a grand plan laid out in October. I think good front offices enter the offseason with a loose guideline of what they want to accomplish but then they pivot and pivot again as circumstances change. 

[edfunderburk]

11 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Everybody welcome Jack Stern! Personally, I've been trying to figure out ways to recruit him for about a year, so flippin' excited it finally happened! He'll be traveling to AZ for a week in March to cover the team on-site.

Nice to have a Brewers fan writing articles for this website 😁💪⚾️

[edfunderburk]

7 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Since we have limited resources, would you rather have Houser in the rotation and Jake Bauers at 1B? We likely don’t have Hoskins without salary relief. 
 

‘I’d want both’ is understandable but perhaps unrealistic.

I think I’d rather have Houser than Junis … maybe even Sanchez

[edfunderburk]

9 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

I think I’d rather have Houser than Junis … maybe even Sanchez

After reading the entire thread - I like the Taylor/Houser trade for Crow & the addition of Junis 😇