Next Brewers extension candidates?

[BrewerFan]

I've always been of the opinion that signing a standout young player early on makes the most sense. There's obviously risk involved. We offered a contract to Hiura IIRC.
To look at the upside, simply look at the Atlanta Braves, a team that's locked up Strider, Acuna Jr, Albies, Harris Jr, Riley, Murphy, all signed to below-market deals that give them cost certainty and lock them in through their ages ~33-34 seasons. So through their prime years. 

The downside is you're stuck with a player like Hiura and you're paying him 6-8M a year(a reasonable deal would have been in the 6/45M range). That's something you can certainly overcome.
So with Chourio a Brewer for the next 8 years, who should we be looking at next?

IMO, I'd target Abner Uribe. We had to move off Hader while he was still among the most dominant relievers in the game. We'll likely trade Devin Williams this year or next.

So I'd look at the last two contracts we handed out to pitchers...guys with really good stuff, but murky futures at the time regarding their futures as a starters, vs being relegated to the pen. Ashby has not been worth it at this pont. But even if he's never the Ashby we all hoped would anchor the rotation, the deals collectively more than makeup for any setbacks Ashby has had.

Peralta-5/15.5M with 2 TOs for 8M a year
Aaron Ashby 5/20.5 with TOs for 9 and 13M

 

I'd offer Uribe 6 years, 24M with 2 TOs for 10M each.

The injury risk is obvious, it is with every pitcher. His command and control are issues. BUT, his upside is as high as Hader and Williams. He showed last year he can dominate big-league hitters. That hasn't been a question. Now it's an issue of consistency...but if you get too far down that road, the price is going to go up significantly.

Wily Contreras- He has 4 years left of team control, one year before he hits arbitration. I'd say 5/60M with 2 TOs at 15 and 18M with a buyout worth 6M would be a reasonable starting point. You buy out three years of free agency. And while you may say we have Jefferson Quero, why extend Contreras, the proverbial "bird in the hand," argument comes to mind. Right now he's our best hitter...BUT if Quero fulfills the potential he's shown, he's got a great deal more trade value in 3-4 years. 

-Frelick-I think he brings energy, his versatility and bat-to-ball skills really limit his floor. The other argument is that he doesn't have the upside others have. I'd put this as less likely to happen given his 1st round status and the fact that there's less room for the Brewers to find excess value. I'd look at 6/40 with TOs, but not sure if he would go for that.

-Wiemer
His upside is so enormous that I think if you gave him a 6/40 deal with 2 TOs for 14/18M and an 8M buyout, you're probably going to get your value back just from his defense, his base running and his power. That's assuming he doesn't reach his full potential and become the .250/.350/.550 hitter that he's more than capable of becoming. He was also a 4th rd pick, so he didn't get a large bonus. 

I think I'm probably higher on both, but when you have a base where you can play elite defense and bring that type of energy to the team, they both have exceptional throwing arms(Frelick's was underrated). So I just see upside with both of these players. 

 

Candidates after this year...assuming they answer some questions about weaknesses in their games while continuing to excel at their respective strengths(clearly not all at the same prices).
-Tyler Black -If he can show he can play a passable 3B/2B and get on base at a good clip.
-Joey Ortiz- He can hit ~.270, maybe not with a ton of power, but he can play SS like Turang.
-DL Hall-This one would have to be very team-friendly...along the lines of Peralta/Ashby and he just has to stay healthy. 
-Turang-He was outstanding defensively, but taking the most defensive hacks I've seen later last year. He can hit. If he's a .250/.330/.380 hitter, he's going to have a good amount of value with his speed and glove.

 

None of the players after Uribe and Contreras appear to be prime extension candidates at the moment, but with the 2nd/3rd best farm system in baseball, this is an issue that HOPEFULLY will become more pressing as the next couple of years pass. Hopefully, as Jefferson Quero becomes a top 10 prospect, Brock Wilken, Luke Adams, etc...

I LOVE what they did with Chourio and it was something many of us, myself included spent all last year hoping they would do early on in his career. They were even more aggressive than most of us hoped. I hope that's a sign of things to come...but Chourio is an outlier, so time will tell. 

Not every prospect is going to take that money early in their careers. But I think it's an area the Brewers can...not "level," the playing field. Not with 700M dollar deals being given out, but it's an area that they can use to extend their window with each respective prospect and help mitigate their small market standing. 

 

I suspect their willingness or reluctance to do this will hinge on Chourio's success. If he turns into the superstar we all believe he can be, I think they'll be more open to extending these young prospects coming up(though likely not quite as early or for as much as Jackson got).

 

Thoughts? Abner Uribe contract extension? Contreras? I excluded Adames for obvious reasons. You're paying much closer to the fair market value at this point and the "upside," there just doesn't generate the ROI on that contract that'd make it make sense for the Brewers.

[SF70]

With this teams very likely monstrous farm system over the next half-decade, I think they can be very selective in who they offer extensions to.

With positionals, the priority over pitchers for 2 reasons — less injury risk, and also it’s what we do best — develop pitching, so we should always have pitching available.

I think the team should zero in on Quero like they did with Chourio. Locking him up to give the team up to 9-10 years of that pairing would be franchise-altering and give the team 2 top players at their positions in the game.

Having a farm as strong as MKE will have and for as long as they will have will give them so many options for extensions moving-forward, especially with all of the teenage talent currently in the system and skill of the team’s IFA department.

Besides Quero, who very likely should be offered, I’d list Lara-YRod-Pratt as 3 more future extension candidates depending on development.

[monty57]

Just a guess, but I think the Brewers have already offered an extension to Contreras and he's decided to go year-to-year. He's in his final pre-arby year, and once players hit arby, their extensions don't give the team nearly as much of a discount. The Brewers like to do the Ashby/Peralta type extensions as opposed to extending players when they're already in their arby years. 

I think they'll keep Quero in AAA all year, which is why they signed several veteran backups to Contreras. Next year, Quero will back up Contreras, and if he shows himself capable, they'll trade Contreras after '25, when he still has two years' service time and a lot of trade value. 

That makes Quero a prime candidate for an extension, but not quite yet. If my scenario is correct, then he'd probably get offered an extension around the time they're looking to trade Contreras. 

I wouldn't be opposed to a Uribe extension, but I wouldn't go overboard to sign one. First, he shouldn't get more than the Ashby extension, just due to the fact that he's a reliever, and relievers shouldn't get more than starters. Second, relievers are notoriously fickle. Very few of them are consistently good, largely due to the limited number of innings they pitch in a year, making a "slump" more detrimental to their end-of-year numbers. They can't base his contract on him becoming the next "best reliever in baseball." If they extend him, they'd better get a really nice discount.

It may not sound like it so far, but I am actually a big proponent of extending young players. I would be happy to hear that any of our young guys (Mitchell, Frelick, Black, Gasser, Wiemer, Ortiz, Hall, etc) signed an extension. I would expect that the deal signed with any of them would be akin to the Ashby/Peralta deals and not the Chourio deal. Chourio is just another caliber of player, and most guys won't get that deal. 

If I had to guess, Wiemer is probably headed to AAA to start the season, and after a couple of weeks the Brewers will get another year's service time out of him. If Adames is going to be on the opening day Brewer roster, than the same thing could happen to Turang. I can't see either of them getting extended prior to getting shipped to AAA. Gasser and Mis will probably start in AAA as well, so an extension may be premature for either of them.

The rest of the rookie/2nd year guys are all prime candidates for extensions. Hopefully some of them will sign.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree that I suspect the ship has sailed on a Contreras extension. Which is mildly disappointing but not a huge deal because he's a catcher and they age so poorly.

I'd let the extension candidates sort themselves out this season. Whomever rises to the occasion in 2024, consider extending them next winter.

[CheezWizHed]

I think generally, we want to focus on the high upside for these type of contracts.  It is generally a wager on someone reaching their potential.  Contreras is pretty much at his peak (maybe small improvements, but not suddenly become a 900 OPS hitter). 

Wiemer certainly has the high upside as was mentioned.

But I think you turn to Misiorowski, Quero, and Hall as the next candidates.  Hall and Quero could be considered this year.  Misiorowski next year (another year to show the improvements he has made can remain).  

[eddiemathews]

I'd pump the brakes on extending Quero. It would appear that he's gonna be good, but catcher is so hard to judge. There are plenty of cautionary tales out there...Francisco Mejia, Joey Bart, maybe even Henry Davis. And the system is currently so deep (seemingly), that going the Burnes route seems like a good plan. And Uribe...I wouldn't. He should be good, but it's such a risk with pitchers.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, eddiemathews said:

I'd pump the brakes on extending Quero. It would appear that he's gonna be good, but catcher is so hard to judge. There are plenty of cautionary tales out there...Francisco Mejia, Joey Bart, maybe even Henry Davis. And the system is currently so deep (seemingly), that going the Burnes route seems like a good plan. And Uribe...I wouldn't. He should be good, but it's such a risk with pitchers.

Like anything and everything... the big variable is $$.  Quero's defense makes him a high floor/high ceiling prospect to minimize the risk.  Obviously if you do it now, you assume a bit more of a discount.  I almost put him in the "next year" so he has a chance (presumably) to make his debut sometime this year and we get a feeling if he is overmatched. But his D is good enough that you could consider it now...but at more of a discount.

The longer you wait, the more you know and the less risk, but also the price can go up too.  I'm sure signing Contreras to a deal like this would've been cheaper 4 years ago, but now he is pretty well a known commodity and will expect  a higher salary.

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, monty57 said:

Just a guess, but I think the Brewers have already offered an extension to Contreras and he's decided to go year-to-year. He's in his final pre-arby year, and once players hit arby, their extensions don't give the team nearly as much of a discount. The Brewers like to do the Ashby/Peralta type extensions as opposed to extending players when they're already in their arby years. 

I think they'll keep Quero in AAA all year, which is why they signed several veteran backups to Contreras. Next year, Quero will back up Contreras, and if he shows himself capable, they'll trade Contreras after '25, when he still has two years' service time and a lot of trade value. 

That makes Quero a prime candidate for an extension, but not quite yet. If my scenario is correct, then he'd probably get offered an extension around the time they're looking to trade Contreras. 

I wouldn't be opposed to a Uribe extension, but I wouldn't go overboard to sign one. First, he shouldn't get more than the Ashby extension, just due to the fact that he's a reliever, and relievers shouldn't get more than starters. Second, relievers are notoriously fickle. Very few of them are consistently good, largely due to the limited number of innings they pitch in a year, making a "slump" more detrimental to their end-of-year numbers. They can't base his contract on him becoming the next "best reliever in baseball." If they extend him, they'd better get a really nice discount.

It may not sound like it so far, but I am actually a big proponent of extending young players. I would be happy to hear that any of our young guys (Mitchell, Frelick, Black, Gasser, Wiemer, Ortiz, Hall, etc) signed an extension. I would expect that the deal signed with any of them would be akin to the Ashby/Peralta deals and not the Chourio deal. Chourio is just another caliber of player, and most guys won't get that deal. 

If I had to guess, Wiemer is probably headed to AAA to start the season, and after a couple of weeks the Brewers will get another year's service time out of him. If Adames is going to be on the opening day Brewer roster, than the same thing could happen to Turang. I can't see either of them getting extended prior to getting shipped to AAA. Gasser and Mis will probably start in AAA as well, so an extension may be premature for either of them.

The rest of the rookie/2nd year guys are all prime candidates for extensions. Hopefully some of them will sign.

Of course, Chourio is an outlier. I think most people were pretty happy when he signed and a lot of us were hoping they'd lock him up early, but I'm just throwing out those numbers as it pertains to the other young players.

I also agree, Quero is about a year behind Chourio just due to the difficulty of playing catcher and the fact that the only real option to get him into the lineup is to DH Contreras. That'd make sense if he was the defensive catcher he was in ATL, but he's made huge strides. 

I think he's more likely to get called up this year if there's an injury to Contreras and then you have a much better idea what an extension should look like. 

 

As for Uribe and Ashby...I don't know, I don't think when they signed Ashby they knew he was a starter(I still don't think they know). Just that he had an electric arm. And sure, relievers are volatile and Uribe could VERY easily pitch his way down to AAA this year if he struggles. But to buyout his arbitration years for 20.5M? That's a deal I'd make, even for a reliever. His stuff is just too dominant and I love his makeup. 

I'm looking at it as a best case, worse case, most likely case and what he'd make in each.

Best case, he's an Clause-type reliever, the Brewers will end up trading him in ~5 years for a haul, but during those 5 years, he'll be a dominant, overpowering BP arm.
The worst case is always he gets hurt and he's never effective again. The floor is much lower with pitchers. Chourio can hit WAY below expectations and still provide value...as Wiemer, Mitchell or Frelick have done(even Turang). 

I think the most likely case is that he's going to be the anchor of our BP for a long time. I also think that's a guy who's just built for pitching in those high-impact moments. We all talk about how overrated closer is...and I agree to a point. But some guys just do better dealing with that pressure and I believe he's one of them. 

Finally, when Ashby signed, I think the most a reliever had ever gotten was the Wade Davis 3/54 deal with Col. I'm not positive about that, but you're seeing guys like Diaz and Hader both getting ~100M. So even if they paid Ashby as a starter, I'm still fine with Uribe besting that.

On the other hand, we've also signed guys to deals that have been shockingly low like Lucroy. So if they can get it done for less, awesome.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I think generally, we want to focus on the high upside for these type of contracts.  It is generally a wager on someone reaching their potential.  Contreras is pretty much at his peak (maybe small improvements, but not suddenly become a 900 OPS hitter). 

Wiemer certainly has the high upside as was mentioned.

But I think you turn to Misiorowski, Quero, and Hall as the next candidates.  Hall and Quero could be considered this year.  Misiorowski next year (another year to show the improvements he has made can remain).  

So I'm alone on the Uribe train? I guess I was just looking at his upside, his signing bonus and just how insanely filthy his stuff is and thought it'd be nice to lock up a reliever so that we're not going to start talking about dealing 2-3 years after he starts to dominate. 

Quero is the most obvious...I just didn't have him next because I think he'll spend most if not all of this year in the minors. 

Misiorowski...same thing, but this dude is just silly with his stuff. He's a guy I'd be stupid and sign right NOW to an 8-year deal with some options and I don't think he's ready and that he should be up until maybe late this year. But his upside is so high, even with the risk, I'd love to see it.  They obviously won't do that and even when he's ready, they'd likely wait until he's pitched a bit.  

Wiemer is one I'd do right now...but obviously not for anything close to what Chourio got. It'd have to be closer to Lucroy than Chourio. I just don't see a huge risk and there is massive upside.

 

[SF70]

3 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

I'd pump the brakes on extending Quero. It would appear that he's gonna be good, but catcher is so hard to judge. There are plenty of cautionary tales out there...Francisco Mejia, Joey Bart, maybe even Henry Davis. And the system is currently so deep (seemingly), that going the Burnes route seems like a good plan. And Uribe...I wouldn't. He should be good, but it's such a risk with pitchers.

Going the Burnes route with Quero gets him to FA in his age 28 season. No thanks.

I want his age 28 & 29 seasons to be here in MKE. Possibly his age 30 & 31 seasons as well.

[eddiemathews]

6 minutes ago, SF70 said:

Going the Burnes route with Quero gets him to FA in his age 28 season. No thanks.

I want his age 28 & 29 seasons to be here in MKE. Possibly his age 30 & 31 seasons as well.

But I'm not as sure of his stardom as others. He could be Manny Pina.

[SF70]

Just now, eddiemathews said:

But I'm not as sure of his stardom as others. He could be Manny Pina.

His trajectory is top 10-20 prospect in the game. Odds are with stardom vs not.

[Playing Catch]

3 hours ago, SF70 said:

His trajectory is top 10-20 prospect in the game. Odds are with stardom vs not.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there. Even if one goes along with your first sentence, I would disagree with your 2nd sentence.

[CheezWizHed]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So I'm alone on the Uribe train? I guess I was just looking at his upside, his signing bonus and just how insanely filthy his stuff is and thought it'd be nice to lock up a reliever so that we're not going to start talking about dealing 2-3 years after he starts to dominate. 

Upside yes.  But upside as a reliever.  It just limits the value upside.  And we have several pitchers that could be that next BP ace.

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I also agree, Quero is about a year behind Chourio just due to the difficulty of playing catcher and the fact that the only real option to get him into the lineup is to DH Contreras. That'd make sense if he was the defensive catcher he was in ATL, but he's made huge strides. 

I think he's more likely to get called up this year if there's an injury to Contreras and then you have a much better idea what an extension should look like. 

Perhaps the extension could be next year or just low enough the first year to allow him to stay at AAA.  Having Quero and Conteras both isn't all that hard since catchers don't play every day anyway.  And you have the DH avilable.

But if Quero has an 8 year contract, you could do that a couple years and trade Contreras off. 

And hey (referring to another comment), Manny Pina is a pretty good floor for Quero.  😀

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Misiorowski...same thing, but this dude is just silly with his stuff. He's a guy I'd be stupid and sign right NOW to an 8-year deal with some options and I don't think he's ready and that he should be up until maybe late this year. But his upside is so high, even with the risk, I'd love to see it.  They obviously won't do that and even when he's ready, they'd likely wait until he's pitched a bit.  

 There is no such thing as being stupid to sign an 8-year deal.  He has great upside, but it isn't like he is a lock to be a TOR pitcher.  He might have personal reasons to lock it in and not worry about injury or control issues.  Every investment like this is a risk v reward analysis for both sides.  It isn't stupid if both sides find a point where they both agree the RvR works for both sides. 

[SF70]

7 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I'm going to have to disagree with you there. Even if one goes along with your first sentence, I would disagree with your 2nd sentence.

Sure, I get the “odds” don’t favor stardom for any “prospect”, but sometimes the team just knows and Arnold has been praising Quero’s game since his signing back in 2019.

My guess is the team is higher on Quero than the industry.

[homer]

Quero's ceiling offensively is probably where Contreras is now. I think I'd rather just extend Contreras. If William was 29 or something then maybe not but he just turned 26 in December. Although if Quero has a monster year this year then I might change my tune. Good problem to have!

[MrTPlush]

7 minutes ago, homer said:

Quero's ceiling offensively is probably where Contreras is now. I think I'd rather just extend Contreras. If William was 29 or something then maybe not but he just turned 26 in December. Although if Quero has a monster year this year then I might change my tune. Good problem to have!

He will be 29 when he hits FA. Actually, I think the first year of a new contract would be his age 30 season. 

William Contreras is a classic example of the kind of player the Brewers have wisely just flat out refused to even entertain an extension for. Lucroy was never offered a contract, nor was Hader. We don't need to be handing out big contracts to 30+ year old catchers/relievers. 

[MrTPlush]

14 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

So I'm alone on the Uribe train? I guess I was just looking at his upside, his signing bonus and just how insanely filthy his stuff is and thought it'd be nice to lock up a reliever so that we're not going to start talking about dealing 2-3 years after he starts to dominate. 

 

I mean, is he going to take $25mil over 8 years? Just to hit FA in his 30s?

[homer]

10 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

He will be 29 when he hits FA. Actually, I think the first year of a new contract would be his age 30 season. 

William Contreras is a classic example of the kind of player the Brewers have wisely just flat out refused to even entertain an extension for. Lucroy was never offered a contract, nor was Hader. We don't need to be handing out big contracts to 30+ year old catchers/relievers. 

I don't know what Hader has to do with this but fine just hang onto Contreras then instead of extending him. It becomes moot if Quero has a great year this year. Great problem to have!

[Ignitor 4ever]

My belief is that extending Contreras at this point would probably be more than the Brewers would/should pay.  He has proven himself to be in the upper echelon of catchers and he would likely want to get paid like it.  Just ride him for the next two years while Quero gets all of the seasoning he needs.  Quero is a better extension option, if he proves himself this season between AAA and maybe the big league club.  Cheaper extension too and worth the risk.

After that, I would say we try to extend one of the OF's (Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell) depending on what we see from them this season.  As for the pitchers, Hall, Gasser and Misiorowski seem the most likely candidates to extend.  Right now I'd lean towards Hall and Misiorowski but let's see how it plays out.

[jay87shot]

I would probably agree with the Uribe, it seems like the least risky. I think DL Hall makes sense to maybe next offseason depending on the season he has, with the Peralta/Ashby contracts it seems like our front office likes to bet on starters potential after a mediocre season that doesn't skyrocket value. If I was in charge I would probably go for a Sal Frelick extension, but he doesn't really have superstar potential so a long term deal doesn't probably save as much this early in his career. Tyler Black would probably be in the same boat as Sal.

[RedStickBrew]

… on Uribe. High stress delivery, relief arm, don’t think an extension would be a good move for the Brewers. Hope I’m wrong

[CheezWizHed]

It may seem odd to say, but the extension (or not) of Quero should have nothing to do with Contreras.  If the Brewers and Quero find a good price point (again...all about the amount of $$), they should do an extension. 

I'm not talking about Chourio money.  So it doesn't force your hand to play Quero and get rid of Contreras.  It doesn't even prevent you from extending Contreras if the $$ is right. 

If both Quero and Contreras are awesome and they are on team friendly contracts... it is even awesomer! The Brewers are going to have to figure out who to keep and who stays.  But the contract adds value at that point to perspective trade partners. 

If one of them fails and you extended them... well hopefully you did it at a price point you can eat.  But we still have one that plays well. 

Getting good players at the right $$ amounts is always what the Brewers need to focus on.  

[monty57]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

But the contract adds value at that point to perspective trade partners. 

This is an important point. Look at Albies. He has 6.062 years of service time, so he would have been a free agent this offseason. 

Instead, the Braves have him at $7M / year for '24 and '25 with team options for '26 and '27. If they chose to trade him right now, they would get a king's ransom.

 

In a rosy scenario, if the Brewers were to extend multiple of their OFs and they all play to their potential, they'd have an OF full of inexpensive All Stars, and having them under contract would make them very tradable commodities at any point during the extension.

In a bad scenario, their 4th and 5th OFs would be making around $6-8M/year for a few years. All of Mitchell, Frelick and Wiemer play defense at such a high level that they are positive WAR players even if they don't hit well, so the worst-case isn't as bad as it could be. I don't want to pay a defensive replacement $7M, but that's a worst-case scenario and probably worth the risk.

[Lathund]

Quero seems the most obvious candidate to me, for reasons outlined by others here. An excellent defensive catcher has a high floor, and a floor as a glove first backup catcher is still something teams will pay a few million a year for. And even an average bat makes him way more valuable than that. 

Honestly after that I'd probably look at someone like Joey Ortiz. Plays SS, good defender, good contact skills, good exit velocities. Will he put it all together, turn that exit velo into extra bases/HRs more? Maybe, maybe not. But it's also that combination of a high floor if he doesn't, and pretty good ceiling if he does. And he's slightly older, won't reach FA until 31/32, perhaps guaranteed money would hold some allure. With age, I think it's mostly the youngest prospects (Who will reach FA early.-ish regardless) and the oldest (Who won't hit FA early) who might sign the more team-friendly extensions. 

Not sure about the current OFs and extensions. I like them a lot as players, but I don't know if they're the best candidates for extensions. I'd say that someone like Frelick doesn't have a huge ceiling, and Wiemer and Mitchell have really low floors, for all their tools giving them a high ceiling. 

Uribe: Just no. He's a reliever, go year to year. There just isn't enough upside in a reliever to do this, and so much risk in a high-effort arm like that.