Which Marlins Pitchers Will Be Available At The Deadline?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ken Rosenthal in his recent roundup for The Athletic, mentioned that it's likely the Miami Marlins will be looking to deal pitchers at this trade deadline. They already moved Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres early in the season and with new President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix tasked with rebuilding a painfully depleted Marlins farm system, it's likely he will use the trade deadline to build out the farm system.

Three names mentioned are starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett while reliever Tanner Scott is also likely to be dealt. Scott is on an expiring contract this season but starters Luzardo (free agent after 2026 season) and Garrett (free agent after 2028 season) are long-term pieces that would require a hefty prospect price.

While it's questionable whether the Brewers will be in the reliever market at the trade deadline (though aren't all contenders?), it's not unreasonable to expect them to look to improve the starting rotation down the stretch.

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[sveumrules]

Everybody would love Luzardo, but I’m not sure I’d want to surrender the prospect capital it will likely take to win the bidding.

If the Rays keep scuffling I could see us linking up with them for someone like Zack Littell who shouldn’t require quite as large of an outlay.

Last two years as SP…

Littell (25 GS | 133 IP)
95 K%+ | 32 BB%+ | 93 HR9+
83 ERA- | 86 FIP-

Luzardo (41 GS | 230 IP)
122 K%+ | 87 BB%+ | 93 HR9+
87 ERA- | 85 FIP-

Jesus has the obvious stuff and track record edge, but Littell has gotten similar results via elite command.

[nate82]

Luzardo would be the best but you are right he would cost a lot in prospect capital and I am not willing to give that up for 2.5 years of control. 

Another option if you want to go down the just for this season route would be Yusei Kikuchi from Toronto.

If you want to go big Braxton Garrett has also been rumored to be available though I think I would wait on the Marlins and possibly talk with them in the off season and see if they would be willing to deal Alcantara in the off season.  He won't have as much value in the off season so the Marlins may hold on him to get a better return or just keep him going forward. 

If I were to deal with the Rays I would see if they would include Arozarena in the Littel deal.  Arozarena has been bad this year offensively but the Brewers have picked someone up from the Rays who was playing poorly before and it worked out (Adames).

Maybe something like Wiemer/Lara, Wichrowski and a DSL player for Littel and Arozarena could be close?

If you want Luzardo I think the Marlins would ask for a Quero/Black/Misio/Wilken + deal.  I don't think you will need to give up more than one  of the Brewers top 10 prospects and I think the Marlins would be more interested in a bat than pitching.  I know the bullpen has been great so far but I wouldn't mind picking up Puk.

I think the Royals will splurge on Luzardo and I wouldn't want to get in a bidding war for that.  The Cubs or Cardinals may also get in on Luzardo. 

I would rather get Kikuchi or Verlander if the Astros falter but it looks like they are playing like expected recently. 

[Scooterfletcher]

People wanting Lazaro need to realize a Crod Black Wiemer and Lara/Mitchell type deal could get it done.   No Miso though but we should have a solid offer that could be accepted.

[nate82]

8 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

People wanting Lazaro need to realize a Crod Black Wiemer and Lara/Mitchell type deal could get it done.   No Miso though but we should have a solid offer that could be accepted.

No.  I don’t see the Marlins accepting that.  Wiemer and Mitchell have very little value they are basically throw in players right now.  I am not sure the Marlins would want Crod either.  Black is interesting but I think they would want Wilken or Quero over Black.  If you want Luzardo you are going to have to give up one of Quero, Misio or Wilken and then a couple of other pieces and no Wiemer or Mitchell are not one of those other pieces.

[Playing Catch]

In the other thread I said only Misiorowski and Quero, but no one else. I still like that offer. There's so much development risk with Misiorowski, that the 2.5 seasons of Luzardo would make up for it. Quero, too, has a lot of risk that I'd be okay with selling.

If it's Black instead of Quero, that would be awesome, as I'm worried he's a LF-only.

I don't want to give up Wilken. I think he has a higher floor than Mis, Quero, and Black.

[wallus]

One thing to consider on Luzardo is that he has pretty dramatic home and away splits. 

[BraunWeeksFielder]

5 hours ago, wallus said:

One thing to consider on Luzardo is that he has pretty dramatic home and away splits. 

Luzardo this season has only pitched 3 games away from home, 16.2 IPs with a 6.48 ERA compared to 35.0 IPs with a 3.09 ERA at home. The 3 away games though have been - 6 innings, 3 earned runs against SD, 6 innings, 2 earned runs against CHC, and the lone blow-up was against the Yankees in New York on 4/8 at 4.2 innings and 7 earned runs. He went on the IL back in late April and returned on May 11th, since his return he's looked very good - 25.2 innings, 1.75 ERA, 2,21 FIP. All of that to say, the Brewers historically (albeit with different people running the show) go after the stud ace at the deadline if they are both in it and need an SP 1 (or SP 1b to Freddy's 1A) - I think acquisition cost as well, we can compete with most teams farm systems in my opinion and would be open to moving Jacob Misiorowski, Luis Lara, and two lesser 11-20 and outside the top 30 prospects.

I would offer something like = Joey Wiemer, Jacob Misiorowski, Luis Lara, and Bradley Blalock. 

[BraunWeeksFielder]

Bleacher Report for what it's worth says the following offer for Luzardo:

Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

I would do that deal

[sveumrules]

24 minutes ago, BraunWeeksFielder said:

Luzardo this season has only pitched 3 games away from home, 16.2 IPs with a 6.48 ERA compared to 35.0 IPs with a 3.09 ERA at home.

Luzardo has been a Marlin since 2021 though…

Home (230 IP)
3.76 ERA | 3.53 FIP

Road (158 IP)
4.39 ERA | 3.90 FIP

Kind of interesting that they have seemingly tilted his starts towards being at home compared to their other regular SPs over that stretch with their home | road IP splits…

Alcantara
309 | 310

Lopez
152 | 130

Garrett
150 | 155

Rogers
149 | 160

Cabrera
111 | 108

[LouisEly]

20 hours ago, BraunWeeksFielder said:

Bleacher Report for what it's worth says the following offer for Luzardo:

Milwaukee Brewers get LHP Jesús Luzardo in exchange for IF Tyler Black (No. 43 on B/R Top 100), OF Luis Lara, RHP Logan Henderson, 3B Eric Bitonti

I would do that deal

I'd do that deal, too. 

The Brewers also have two Competitive Balance picks to dangle, one #34 overall, if the Marlins want more flexibility to draft their own players instead (and the deal can get done before July 14th).  Perhaps #34 could be used in place of Black ($2.7M slot value), #67 in place of Bitonti/another piece ($1.2M slot value).

[wallus]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

I'd do that deal, too. 

The Brewers also have two Competitive Balance picks to dangle, one #34 overall, if the Marlins want more flexibility to draft their own players instead (and the deal can get done before July 14th).  Perhaps #34 could be used in place of Black ($2.7M slot value), #67 in place of Bitonti/another piece ($1.2M slot value).

You can't trade a CB pick twice I believe for some reason.

[Scooterfletcher]

How close is their pick of Turang or Or Ortiz for Lazaro given the control factor?   The one we keep continues to start at 2/3 base before moving to short when Adames bolts.  Black and Wilken are on the way and Dunn shows promise too.  I know Fla needs a short stop badly so might be a deal to be had….

[nate82]

13 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

How close is their pick of Turang or Or Ortiz for Lazaro given the control factor?   The one we keep continues to start at 2/3 base before moving to short when Adames bolts.  Black and Wilken are on the way and Dunn shows promise too.  I know Fla needs a short stop badly so might be a deal to be had….

I don’t see the Marlins having any interest in Turang or Ortiz.  This also doesn’t make any sense for the Brewers.  This is just digging in the hole you are to fill in the hole you are in.

[TURBO]

What is it about Luzardo that makes people think he is more than a #4 pitcher?  Yes, he would step into our #2, but on a good starting rotation, he is #4 at best.

Dude just never produces the numbers everyone expects, yet he is still coveted.