Trade Deadline: What Would You Do?

[wallus]

The Brewers are in an enviable position with a large division lead, playing well and a highly regarded minor league system. As it currently stands, I think the Phillies, Dodgers and Braves are a level beyond us. While I feel we could likely win the division with our current roster, I hope the team is looking to improve the talent level on the team to give us a better shot to beat the aforementioned teams in the playoffs. My thoughts are to pick up players that are not just rentals to help this year and beyond, even if it means giving up quality prospects. It is also important that the players not have outrageous contracts to not handcuff us later.

The team has 5 picks in the top 100 of this draft so they can add more talent to the roster. They are also likely getting 3 first draft picks for the following draft. I don't have any desire to trade the top 2 players in the system. (Quero and Mis) 

Trade #1 (Taken from Bleacher Report): Jesus Luzardo for Tyler Black, Luis Lara, Logan Henderson and Eric Bitonti

Why it makes sense: The team needs a front end starter and Luzardo has shown he can be that in years past. Luzardo has shown he is durable and can eat innings better than most of the starters we have now. He is controlled for this season and the next two. It is likely he will command around 10 million next season which works in our payroll constraints. The Marlins defense is ranked as below average so he should benefit from an excellent Brewers defense.

Why it doesn't make sense: Luzardo has not been quite as good in 2024 as past years. He also pitches in a pitcher's friendly ballpark with numbers that are quite a bit better at home vs away. Losing the four prospects would hurt and I am particually high on Henderson.

Trade #2 (Tried to use BTV for a baseline on value): Luis Robert Jr. for Sal Frelick, Abner Uribe, Mike Boeve, and Luke Adams

Why it makes sense: When healthy, Luis Robert is one of the best players in baseball. He is a power hitting outfielder with plus defense. He is on a team friendly contract until 2027. With his injuries, he can be had for a lower package than he would have in 2023.

Why it doesn't make sense: Injuries. He has missed a lot of games. He doesn't walk and relies on bat speed to be effective. If he loses that, it could get ugly. The trade package includes two major league pieces and a player that is vaulting up the prospect lists.

The Brewers deadline trades for mostly rentals have produced mixed results. Now is the time to take advantage of a good minor league system and improve the team with long term players. The minor league system would take a bit hit from these trades no doubt but we would still have our top 2 guys along with many promising players. Other than Adames, (Hoskins will very likely opt in) the lineup would be setup for the future. The top 3 of the rotation with Woodruff, Peralta and Luzardo would be a good start to 2025.

[Scooterfletcher]

Lazardo for Eric brown, Joey Wiemer Luis Lara and Logan Henderson

 

Crochet Fedde and Robert for Frelick Mitchell Black Dunn Bitoni Wichrowski and Blalock

Done!

we keep Miso Quero Wilken Boeve Crod Pratt to anchor the top of our system.

[sveumrules]

Guess I just don’t see the Marlins or White Sox being too intrigued by any package for Luzardo, Crochet or Robert that doesn’t start with two of Misio, Quero and Black.

Neither team looks to be competitive anytime soon so not sure they’d have much interest in guys like Frelick, Uribe, Mitchell, Wiemer or Dunn who’s service time is already ticking.

[Playing Catch]

13 hours ago, wallus said:

My thoughts are to pick up players that are not just rentals to help this year and beyond, even if it means giving up quality prospects.

This is where I'm at. Next year's rotation has just as many question marks.

[nate82]

I believe the Blue Jays will be out of it by mid July and should start selling.  While they won't be selling Bichette or Vlad I think the Brewers could get someone like Kikuchi who would be a solid add to the rotation. 

Kikuchi is only signed for this season so the Brewers wouldn't have to trade any of their top prospects.  Something like Brown and Blalock for Kikuchi could work.  Kikuchi would fit in nicely behind Peralta in the rotation.

Another rotation option could be Tyler Anderson and he has another year of control yet at a fairly reasonable price of $13mm.  His ERA is deceiving at 2.37 right now as his FIP 4.67 and xFIP 5.07 suggest he is getting a bit lucky and he has a .210 BABIP right now with a very low K/9 at 5.92.  With an almost 90% LOB% also.  I don't think it would take much to get him from the Angels. 

I would prefer Kikuchi over Anderson. 

If the Dbacks are out of it I think either Joc Pederson or Christian Walker would be good targets.

 

This is what I would do.

Trade #1: Kikuchi to the Brewers for Brown and Blalock

Trade #2: Severino to the Brewers for Bauers and the Brewers comp B pick.

Trade #3: Walker to the Brewers for Adams and Juan Baez

 

This gives the Brewers two good starting pitchers to put behind Peralta and a better defensive 1B in Walker over Hoskins.  Hoskins moves permanently to DH.  You could change Pederson for Walker but then you will have to live with the poor defense from Hoskins at 1B.  I don't think Pederson can play 1B. 

[young guns]

I'm torn.  This was supposed to be a transition year where we get our young players feet wet, looking to next year to really compete.  I would hate to pull a pirates and "go all in" only to find put we have fools gold.  I would lean towards maybe shoring up the rotation with someone or 2 like a Kikuchi who would be a rental so wouldn't cost much, but is a solid pitcher who might get a bump with our better defense.

[Playing Catch]

6 minutes ago, young guns said:

I'm torn.  This was supposed to be a transition year where we get our young players feet wet, looking to next year to really compete.

This is a great point. Coming into the season, that's exactly what I was thinking. Play all the kids and see what you've got.

At the same time, that mentality is perhaps taking playoff-caliber teams for granted. There's no guarantee that the rest of the division won't improve significantly in coming seasons, and all the Brewers are left with is the apple's core.

[wallus]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Guess I just don’t see the Marlins or White Sox being too intrigued by any package for Luzardo, Crochet or Robert that doesn’t start with two of Misio, Quero and Black.

Neither team looks to be competitive anytime soon so not sure they’d have much interest in guys like Frelick, Uribe, Mitchell, Wiemer or Dunn who’s service time is already ticking.

It seems to be pretty rare that top 35 prospects get traded, much less trades that start with two of them. I think those days seem to be over for non surefire hall of famers.

While team control is obviously different and that is important, the Soto trades and even the Burnes trade would support the new normal. Those two players are on a different value level than Luzardo and Robert in terms of performance.

Frelick, Uribe, Mitchell, etc have a lot of team control left. No GM is going to survive if they aren't competitive by the team those players are free agents. I get long term thinking but that's pretty extreme.

I could be wrong and these players could be traded for astronomical packages and that's fair. I wouldn't give up Mis or Quero for either of these guys.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Unless the Astros beat them to it, sign Trevor Bauer for league minimum and hold onto all those prospects another month, then improve the bench offense and perhaps add another starter at the deadline via trade in late July if the pile of young arms either stays injured or isn't settled into a good rotation headlines by Peralta and Bauer.

[wntrtxn21]

3 hours ago, nate82 said:

I believe the Blue Jays will be out of it by mid July and should start selling.  While they won't be selling Bichette or Vlad I think the Brewers could get someone like Kikuchi who would be a solid add to the rotation. 

Kikuchi is only signed for this season so the Brewers wouldn't have to trade any of their top prospects.  Something like Brown and Blalock for Kikuchi could work.  Kikuchi would fit in nicely behind Peralta in the rotation.

Another rotation option could be Tyler Anderson and he has another year of control yet at a fairly reasonable price of $13mm.  His ERA is deceiving at 2.37 right now as his FIP 4.67 and xFIP 5.07 suggest he is getting a bit lucky and he has a .210 BABIP right now with a very low K/9 at 5.92.  With an almost 90% LOB% also.  I don't think it would take much to get him from the Angels. 

I would prefer Kikuchi over Anderson. 

If the Dbacks are out of it I think either Joc Pederson or Christian Walker would be good targets.

 

This is what I would do.

Trade #1: Kikuchi to the Brewers for Brown and Blalock

Trade #2: Severino to the Brewers for Bauers and the Brewers comp B pick.

Trade #3: Walker to the Brewers for Adams and Juan Baez

 

This gives the Brewers two good starting pitchers to put behind Peralta and a better defensive 1B in Walker over Hoskins.  Hoskins moves permanently to DH.  You could change Pederson for Walker but then you will have to live with the poor defense from Hoskins at 1B.  I don't think Pederson can play 1B. 

 

17 hours ago, wallus said:

The Brewers are in an enviable position with a large division lead, playing well and a highly regarded minor league system. As it currently stands, I think the Phillies, Dodgers and Braves are a level beyond us. While I feel we could likely win the division with our current roster, I hope the team is looking to improve the talent level on the team to give us a better shot to beat the aforementioned teams in the playoffs. My thoughts are to pick up players that are not just rentals to help this year and beyond, even if it means giving up quality prospects. It is also important that the players not have outrageous contracts to not handcuff us later.

The team has 5 picks in the top 100 of this draft so they can add more talent to the roster. They are also likely getting 3 first draft picks for the following draft. I don't have any desire to trade the top 2 players in the system. (Quero and Mis) 

Trade #1 (Taken from Bleacher Report): Jesus Luzardo for Tyler Black, Luis Lara, Logan Henderson and Eric Bitonti

Why it makes sense: The team needs a front end starter and Luzardo has shown he can be that in years past. Luzardo has shown he is durable and can eat innings better than most of the starters we have now. He is controlled for this season and the next two. It is likely he will command around 10 million next season which works in our payroll constraints. The Marlins defense is ranked as below average so he should benefit from an excellent Brewers defense.

Why it doesn't make sense: Luzardo has not been quite as good in 2024 as past years. He also pitches in a pitcher's friendly ballpark with numbers that are quite a bit better at home vs away. Losing the four prospects would hurt and I am particually high on Henderson.

Trade #2 (Tried to use BTV for a baseline on value): Luis Robert Jr. for Sal Frelick, Abner Uribe, Mike Boeve, and Luke Adams

Why it makes sense: When healthy, Luis Robert is one of the best players in baseball. He is a power hitting outfielder with plus defense. He is on a team friendly contract until 2027. With his injuries, he can be had for a lower package than he would have in 2023.

Why it doesn't make sense: Injuries. He has missed a lot of games. He doesn't walk and relies on bat speed to be effective. If he loses that, it could get ugly. The trade package includes two major league pieces and a player that is vaulting up the prospect lists.

The Brewers deadline trades for mostly rentals have produced mixed results. Now is the time to take advantage of a good minor league system and improve the team with long term players. The minor league system would take a bit hit from these trades no doubt but we would still have our top 2 guys along with many promising players. Other than Adames, (Hoskins will very likely opt in) the lineup would be setup for the future. The top 3 of the rotation with Woodruff, Peralta and Luzardo would be a good start to 2025.

I don't see Robert's $55M three year contract as being "team friendly". He does have $2M buyouts after 2025, but the Brewers would be trading far too much to just buy him out. With the injuries he has experienced, I think that kind of money could be better used. 

[LouisEly]

The season doesn't really start for the Brewers until the trade deadline.  I said in spring training that they just need to be in contention in late July and then address weaknesses via trade, that being at least one starting pitcher and one RHH OF seeing that Chourio - while showing a ton of potential - just isn't ready this year.

I think every contender has enough smart people in the organization to know that Luzardo isn't the same pitcher away from Miami as he is in Miami, and I don't think that he is going to go for as much as most people think.  Last season Luzardo had a .649 OPS-A at home and .798 OPS-A on the road.  This season it's an even more pronounced .634 OPS-A at home and .866 OPS-A on the road.  For reference, Colin Rea's overall OPS-A has been almost exactly .730 over the last two seasons.  Austin Gomber's OPS-A outside of Coors Field this year is .701 and last year was .782 and .760 in 2022.  I don't see any reason to give up a huge package for Luzardo.

I'd kick the tires on Luzardo, but if the asking price is two of Misio/Black/Quero, then I look to Colorado and see if a Lara/Blalock package (maybe throw in a Barrios) can get Gomber.  Not a big strikeout guy and thus he gets hurt by Coors Field's big OF, but put the Brewers defense in a smaller park behind him and he can be effective.

OF is a little trickier.  Not much there on the bottom teams in the league.  I've made my opinions on Robert known and how concerned I am about his 30 BB/172 K ratio last season (which is even worse this season - 19K to 1 BB in 45 PAs).  I'm not giving up a big haul for him, especially with the OF depth in the Brewers system.   Best options might be if ARI is waving the white flag to poach Randall Grichuk from them or to see how much the Mets would pay the Brewers to take Starling Marte ($20M salary in 2025 would need to be offset by cash).

Honestly, the more I look around at teams with losing records, the more I think that the best option for a RHH OF without giving up a major prospect haul might be a guy they already have - Brewer Hicklen.

[Scooterfletcher]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Honestly, the more I look around at teams with losing records, the more I think that the best option for a RHH OF without giving up a major prospect haul might be a guy they already have - Brewer Hicklen.

If we don’t go after a biggish pitching name, I’d like to think that after another 100-150 AB’s that Tyler Black might be the guy to insert into the lineup and really make an impact.   I’d think he could equal or better the production from any of the Joc Peterson types that’s names will be bandied about over the next month.

[wallus]

4 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

 

I don't see Robert's $55M three year contract as being "team friendly". He does have $2M buyouts after 2025, but the Brewers would be trading far too much to just buy him out. With the injuries he has experienced, I think that kind of money could be better used. 

It absolutely is team friendly. Any team that wants to compete would sign Robert immediately for 3 years and 55 million (age 27, 28, and 29) with it being backloaded on team option years. He would get MUCH more on the free agent market.

[TURBO]

10 hours ago, nate82 said:

Kikuchi is only signed for this season so the Brewers wouldn't have to trade any of their top prospects.  Something like Brown and Blalock for Kikuchi could work.  Kikuchi would fit in nicely behind Peralta in the rotation.

This is what I would do.

Trade #1: Kikuchi to the Brewers for Brown and Blalock

 

Give up Brown Jr. AND Blalock for 2 months of Kikuchi is insane.

Nope, not going to do that one.  Adding a guy like Kikuchi isn't going to strengthen our chances of beating LA or Philly in a playoff series.  There would have to be a lot more moves made before that one would interest me.

We are what, at least 2 top notch starters and a big bat from being serious about advancing in the playoffs.

I'm not trading Brown and Blalock for 2 months of a starting pitcher that isn't having a very good year as it is.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

'm not trading Brown and Blalock for 2 months of a starting pitcher that isn't having a very good year as it is.

This is not having a very good year?

A 3.48 ERA and a WAR of 1.9 already for a pitcher qualifies as a very good year. 

Also Brown is hitting .158 in AA.  I don't think he has much value at all and it wouldn't be all that big of a loss for Kikuchi.  Blalock is having a good year but he isn't a top tier prospect.  So not really an insane deal.  It feels like you want to give up Dunn and that is about it for anyone.  Blalock and Brown is probably not enough for Kikuchi. 

[TURBO]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

It feels like you want to give up Dunn and that is about it for anyone. 

When did I mention Dunn?  I didn't.

 

[Scooterfletcher]

I want to see how Crod performs to determine the urgency needed forSP.

[nate82]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

When did I mention Dunn?  I didn't.

 

I said feels like.  Dunn was just an example of the type of player you would want to trade from your other posts. 

[TURBO]

7 hours ago, nate82 said:

I said feels like.  Dunn was just an example of the type of player you would want to trade from your other posts. 

lol

What other players have I mentioned in my other posts?

[Playing Catch]

17 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

If we don’t go after a biggish pitching name, I’d like to think that after another 100-150 AB’s that Tyler Black might be the guy to insert into the lineup and really make an impact.   I’d think he could equal or better the production from any of the Joc Peterson types that’s names will be bandied about over the next month.

I keep coming to this same sort of thinking with a lot of the positions, or possible trades. The lineup could look MUCH different in a month... Chourio could get hot, and get Mitchell back, maybe Black comes up. All of these things could really change the offensive outlook.

And with the pitching, I mean... They keep churning out quality innings. With the days off during a playoff series, a team can really rely on their bullpen. Do we really want them to give up these good prospects for "average" big league production?

[wntrtxn21]

16 hours ago, wallus said:

It absolutely is team friendly. Any team that wants to compete would sign Robert immediately for 3 years and 55 million (age 27, 28, and 29) with it being backloaded on team option years. He would get MUCH more on the free agent market.

I guess your idea of team friendly and mine differ considerably. Robert would be more than 1/6 of the Brewers' entire payroll.  $55M may be friendly to the Dodgers, cubs, Yankees, but not the Brewers with their limited resources. If the Brewers would have signed Ohtani to a $500M contract would that be team friendly since he could get much more on the open market? 

[Brewcrew82]

Flaherty, Jack is who we need. Rental with ace results and even better peripherals. Problem is Tigers are still only 2 games back of the 3rd WC despite being below .500.

[wallus]

29 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

I guess your idea of team friendly and mine differ considerably. Robert would be more than 1/6 of the Brewers' entire payroll.  $55M may be friendly to the Dodgers, cubs, Yankees, but not the Brewers with their limited resources. If the Brewers would have signed Ohtani to a $500M contract would that be team friendly since he could get much more on the open market? 

You can't be seriously comparing a 10 year contract signed by a 29 year old with a full no trade clause vs a 3 year obligation with team options from a 27 year old. 

The Brewers have two players on the roster that will make about as much as Robert next year.

[sveumrules]

58 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Flaherty, Jack is who we need. Rental with ace results and even better peripherals. Problem is Tigers are still only 2 games back of the 3rd WC despite being below .500.

Yeah, there’s a bunch of guys on the ten teams (fourteen if you count the other NL Central teams) that are all within a few games of .500 that could be nice pick ups.

Hopefully the mess sorts itself out some in the seven weeks leading up to the deadline.

[brewers888]

I doubt there is anything this team can do that would give them a real chance to beat two of Atl/Phi/LAD which is most likely the road they will have to go through to reach the world series. Last offseason was the time to try and get someone like Flaherty on a one year deal. This team isn't good enough to pillage the farm system for short term gains and with our limited payroll it really is never smart to do that which can really damage the future of the franchise.