Is Hoskins actually good?

[gregmag]

I was as happy when the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins as anybody else. 1b has been a black hole. We needed power. The money wasn’t going anywhere else.  A name guy signed with the Brewers!

 

But some doubts nagged at me. The only season where either BRef or Fangraphs had him above 2.2 WAR was 2022. BRef had that season at 3.0 WAR. Fangraphs said 2.4. So by the conventional understanding of WAR, we’re talking about a player who has had one season when he just barely deserved to start. A player who is now (just) on the wrong side of 30, coming off a major injury.

 

He has been dead replacement level this year when healthy.  He is putting up his worst wRC+ ever at 107.  Yes, he has improved our 1b production over last year, but that by itself is not a nice thing to say about somebody.  He has fully lived down to his reputation as a horrific 1b defender, the only hole in our plan to let opposing batters make weak contact and then catch everything.

 

I’m writing this while he’s on a cold streak. We’re all waiting for him to get hot. But really, is that even a thing?  Is Hoskins actually a player you can reasonably count on to make any kind of difference? Bauers has matched Hoskins’ replacement level production almost exactly, just with less bat and more glove. If we can’t come up with anybody better, is there any reason other than money not to just platoon them?

[Oxy]

He's "good" in the same way that Avisail Garcia and Hunter Renfroe were "good."  Or at least, that is what he is supposed to be when right.  A guy with some power who isn't a black hole in the lineup and will give you good ABs.  Also, FWIW, he is obviously a beloved player/good clubhouse guy etc. I think his overall numbers will end up fine but just barely so.

[Brewcrew82]

He's not a superstar or even a star, but he can bat in the top 5 of a World Series-caliber order as he did for Philadelphia. 

Averaged 2 WAR/162 and a 125 wRC+ in his career. That's a good player, and you easily take that with what we've gotten from the 1B position since Prince left.

[sveumrules]

Thru 38 G | 156 PA before his hamstring Rhys was at 233/340/477 (131 wRC+). I think that is more or less what the Brewers were hoping for when they signed him.

Hoskins is never going to put up big WAR numbers because he is slow (-10 BSR career) and a poor defensive 1B/DH (-74 DEF career) so he is starting off about 13 to 14 runs in the red per every 500 PAs. 

As long as he gets back to putting up something around his career 124 wRC+ he'll be providing definite value even if the accompanying WAR is underwhelming.

[82brewcrew82]

I just hope this helps some understand the downside of spending "big" money. 

[BrewerFan]

20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He's not a superstar or even a star, but he can bat in the top 5 of a World Series-caliber order as he did for Philadelphia. 

Averaged 2 WAR/162 and a 125 wRC+ in his career. That's a good player, and you easily take that with what we've gotten from the 1B position since Prince left.

I also think we need to use more context when talking about players like Hoskins. WAR isn't as important to me as WRC+, OPS...he's a DH/1B. They're not going to have 5-6 WAR unless they're among the best hitters in the game. 

Ohtani was worth 6 WAR last year(I think that's just his DH WAR not including the pitching). 

So 2 WAR for a DH/1B, that's fine. 

But maybe we remember this when we're "all" talking about how cheap someone is and how they should go out and spend on a Chapman or whoever it may be. I'm good with this deal...I think we'd probably be just fine with Black playing 1st(with Bauers at times). 

 

To answer the original question, yeah, I think he's pretty good. I think players ebb and flow and if the Brewers bring him back next year or he picks up his option, that's fine. It's 1 or 2 years. We can weather that if it's not elite. 

[wiguy94]

I can't help but wonder if he rushed back from the hamstring injury because he wanted to play in Philly. He's genuinely been terrible since coming off the IL and is in the midst of by far his worst calendar month of baseball in his career. He has a .222 xwOBA in June and the next lowest monthly xwOBA in his career is .282. Those are the only 2 months of his career he's had an xwOBA under .300. Considering how good his peripherals were before he went on the IL to how bad they are now; one has to wonder if he's totally healthy. Then again basically the entire Brewers offense has sucked in June. Only Adames and Ortiz have an xwOBA above the league average .317 in June.

[BrewerFan]

46 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I can't help but wonder if he rushed back from the hamstring injury because he wanted to play in Philly. He's genuinely been terrible since coming off the IL and is in the midst of by far his worst calendar month of baseball in his career. He has a .222 xwOBA in June and the next lowest monthly xwOBA in his career is .282. Those are the only 2 months of his career he's had an xwOBA under .300. Considering how good his peripherals were before he went on the IL to how bad they are now; one has to wonder if he's totally healthy. Then again basically the entire Brewers offense has sucked in June. Only Adames and Ortiz have an xwOBA above the league average .317 in June.

Yeah...maybe. Or maybe he's just pressing. I'm really not worried about him. He's got a pretty good track record of being a good hitter. 

I would kinda like to see Black in the lineup at 1B though. Let Hoskins DH(I haven't even glanced at SD's pitching, so maybe they've got a lefty going and that wouldn't make sense). 

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Thru 38 G | 156 PA before his hamstring Rhys was at 233/340/477 (131 wRC+). I think that is more or less what the Brewers were hoping for when they signed him.

Hoskins is never going to put up big WAR numbers because he is slow (-10 BSR career) and a poor defensive 1B/DH (-74 DEF career) so he is starting off about 13 to 14 runs in the red per every 500 PAs. 

As long as he gets back to putting up something around his career 124 wRC+ he'll be providing definite value even if the accompanying WAR is underwhelming.

I appreciate the data's context. Thanks for providing it.