Let Tyler Black Be Tyler Black

[Harold Hutchison]

Tyler Black has recently returned to Milwaukee, but how can the Brewers best help him reach his potential? For starters, perhaps they should let Tyler be Tyler.

Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

A recent article suggested that Black has some similarities to Tampa Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes. While both have played first, second, and third base in their professional careers, the similarities may not quite hold up.

Black and Paredes, Compared
According to Baseball-Reference, Tyler Black is a left-handed hitter, 5'10" tall, and 204 pounds. Paredes is a right-handed hitter, with a five-foot-eleven height and weighing 213 pounds. Do an inch and ten pounds matter much? Well, Brice Turang’s offense took a leap up when he played to his skill set, but the fact he added muscle didn't hurt him too much, either.

That said, while Black and Paredes arguably share batted ball data in common, and both have enough power to put balls in the stands when they pull the ball, they differ in two very important aspects of offense, and those differences matter a lot.

Walks
According to Baseball-Reference, Paredes has drawn 235 walks in 1,898 minor-league at-bats, or he walks about once every 8.07 at-bats. This is not a bad percentage, and that eye has held up in the majors with 149 walks in 1258 at-bats, or one walk for every 8.44 at-bats. It’s safe to say that Paredes has a decent eye to go with that power.

Black, though, has 197 walks in 975 at-bats. That is one for every 5.21 at-bats. This is a huge difference and a sign that Black has a phenomenal eye for the strike zone. This sort of difference matters. All things being equal, Black’s likely to put up higher OBP by racking up a lot of free passes.

Black’s superior OBP skills – and his eye – call for a different strategy than what might work for Paredes. There’s one other aspect of their offensive skill sets to look at.

Speed
Paredes posted nine triples and 13 steals across his 1,898 minor-league at-bats. Those don’t seem like bad numbers for a power hitter, particularly when looking at someone who has hit 56 homers in that timeframe.

Black’s 975 minor-league at-bats for those categories are 20 triples and 84 swipes. In fact, during his breakout 2023 campaign, Black dwarfed Paredes’s minor league career totals in those categories in a total of 450 at-bats with 12 triples and 55 steals.

There really is no comparison – on the basepaths, Black is a threat. When he gets hits, he can easily stretch doubles into triples and turn singles into doubles. This capability is completely absent from the skill set of Paredes and should be considered very carefully before one asks Black to completely sell out in this fashion.

Hiura’s Cautionary Tale
The Brewers drafted Keston Hiura in the first round of the 2017 draft. He rapidly rose through the minors to make his 2019 MLB debut as a second baseman. He posted a 138 OPS+ and was seen as a major contributor.

But things started to go off-track in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Although Hiura led the Crew with 13 homers and 32 RBI, everything else went down the drain. He had an NL-leading 85 strikeouts and other numbers also dropped, including an OPS+ of only 87. In 2021, he completely cratered and split time between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville in that year and 2022. His partial rebound in 2022 wasn’t enough to keep him from being out-righted in 2023. In 2024, he’s split time between the Triple-A affiliates of the Tigers and the Angels.

One factor may have been the “launch angle” revolution. In 2022, Hiura’s average exit velocity and BABIP were relatively comparable to his 2019 totals as a rookie, but the strikeout rate was higher. His skill set before that was a lot like Paredes's, albeit with a higher strikeout rate. There’s a lesson here.

Overview
The Brewers have a very dynamic bat in Black, as he has demonstrated in the minors. In this case, though, the answer may be more along the lines of allowing Black to play to his superb skills – with some serious offseason conditioning to add some more muscle.

By letting Tyler Black be Tyler Black (albeit bulked up a little), the Brewers could get a truly special offensive player.

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[sveumrules]

Hiura (A) 115 PA
6.1 BB% | 20.9 K%
Black (A) 103 PA
19.4 BB% | 28.2 K%

Hiura (A+) 228 PA
6.1 BB% | 20.6 K%
Black (A+) 283 PA
15.9 BB% | 15.5 K%

Hiura (AA) 307 PA
7.2 BB% | 18.9!K%
Black (AA) 385 PA 
15.8 BB% | 20.0 K%

Hiura (AAA) 243 PA
9.5 BB% | 26.3 K%
Black (AAA) 416 PA
13.2 BB% | 14.9 K%

Black has a career 0.87 BB/K ratio in the minors, Hiura is at 0.37 BB/K for his minor league career.

I guess I’m not seeing how Keston being a free swinger is a cautionary tale for Black, who has a much more patient approach and better contact skills.

[Brian]

40 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I guess I’m not seeing how Keston being a free swinger is a cautionary tale for Black, who has a much more patient approach and better contact skills.

Agree 100%, Keston Heuria couldn't make contact to save his own life when we got rid of him. 

[Samurai Bucky]

For some reason, Black reminds me of Jim Slaton from the 70's.  Maybe a litle Joey Votto, too... 😉

While with the Mudhens, Hiura's K rate was 32%.  Since being released and picked up by the Angels organization, his K rate is worse.  It is 34% with Salt Lake.

Hiura seems like a nice guy.  I'm not sure what happened during the pandemic, but it seems like he is either incapable of making the change, is not willing to make a change, or nobody is showing him how to make the change.  Turang realized something needed to change and, on his own, took the initiative to get better.  I believe Black will be much better with time.  It is early.

[GasserFace]

Why would the Brewers ask him to be anything but himself offensively?  I think the only thing keeping him from consistent MLB time is a defensive home and AB’s

He will be just fine. The Brewers gave him a second audition in SD and the results were great.

[Harold Hutchison]

7 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

For some reason, Black reminds me of Jim Slaton from the 70's.  Maybe a litle Joey Votto, too... 😉

While with the Mudhens, Hiura's K rate was 32%.  Since being released and picked up by the Angels organization, his K rate is worse.  It is 34% with Salt Lake.

Hiura seems like a nice guy.  I'm not sure what happened during the pandemic, but it seems like he is either incapable of making the change, is not willing to make a change, or nobody is showing him how to make the change.  Turang realized something needed to change and, on his own, took the initiative to get better.  I believe Black will be much better with time.  It is early.

I think he sold out for launch angle in 2020 - and the numbers bear it out. 

Four doubles to 13 homers that year - and 85 strikeouts. I think he wanted to loft the ball more, and it wrecked his swing.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

For some reason, Black reminds me of Jim Slaton from the 70's.  Maybe a litle Joey Votto, too... 😉

While with the Mudhens, Hiura's K rate was 32%.  Since being released and picked up by the Angels organization, his K rate is worse.  It is 34% with Salt Lake.

Hiura seems like a nice guy.  I'm not sure what happened during the pandemic, but it seems like he is either incapable of making the change, is not willing to make a change, or nobody is showing him how to make the change.  Turang realized something needed to change and, on his own, took the initiative to get better.  I believe Black will be much better with time.  It is early.

Nice to see that someone else sees a touch of Votto in Blacks' setup & swing!! And the willingness to take pitches adds to it. As to the Jim Slaton reference, you got me there🤔.

I think Clancy nailed it re Hiura. Someone gave him some bad advice, he ran with it, and was never able--or was unwilling--to adjust back. Just unfortunate to see someone get to the point where they look so lost.

[DHonks]

I know it’s a bit of a different era, but I see some Cirillo or Bill Mueller type production.  Solid avg, solid obp.  He’ll have more hr and steals than those two. That can be very useful even if it’s not the traditional 3b power.  

[Harold Hutchison]

50 minutes ago, DHonks said:

I know it’s a bit of a different era, but I see some Cirillo or Bill Mueller type production.  Solid avg, solid obp.  He’ll have more hr and steals than those two. That can be very useful even if it’s not the traditional 3b power.  

I see Paul Molitor in the 1987-1994 timeframe. It's that type of toolset.

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Nice to see that someone else sees a touch of Votto in Blacks' setup & swing!! And the willingness to take pitches adds to it. As to the Jim Slaton reference, you got me there🤔.

I think Clancy nailed it re Hiura. Someone gave him some bad advice, he ran with it, and was never able--or was unwilling--to adjust back. Just unfortunate to see someone get to the point where they look so lost.

Specific to Hiura - his K rate was always pretty high, but when he got the bat to the ball early in his career he consistently did damage...albeit prior to 2020 he was more of a line drive hitter with enough pop to hit 30 HR in a full season.  The launch angle adjustment made gave him the swing to potentially hit 40+HR over a full season, but also created such a huge hole in his swing that any sort of good fastball could exploit that he never was able to make enough contact at the MLB level to warrant getting 600+ plate appearances in order to hit those 40HR.

 

I think Hiura winds up back in MLB with the Angels later this year, and I hope he runs with that opportunity.  The K rate once again isn't great but he's currently sitting at about a 1.200 OPS in Salt Lake City and the Angels aren't exactly headed to the WS this season.

 

Black and Hiura are vastly different hitters, so I don't like the comparison between the two in this article.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

 

 

I think Hiura winds up back in MLB with the Angels later this year, and I hope he runs with that opportunity.  The K rate once again isn't great but he's currently sitting at about a 1.200 OPS in Salt Lake City and the Angels aren't exactly headed to the WS this season.

 

 

 

I never thought of the possibility of him making it to Anaheim. I'd probably still put it at <50% but wouldn't mind seeing it happen. As you said the Halos really have nothing to lose.

[Stealofhome]

In fooling with some minor league comparisons in relation to Tyler Black, I came up with Troy O'Leary. Some pop, above average speed, walks a bit, and doesn't strike out too often.

[jay87shot]

Ben Zobrist, obviously the defense isn't going to be as good.

[Stealofhome]

On 6/24/2024 at 11:16 PM, Stealofhome said:

In fooling with some minor league comparisons in relation to Tyler Black, I came up with Troy O'Leary. Some pop, above average speed, walks a bit, and doesn't strike out too often.

I updated some of the stuff I was looking at and came up with Gerald Perry. Left-handed hitting 1B with more speed than power. Solid career with an all-star selection.