The Brilliance of the Brewer's 2023 MLB Draft

[CheezWizHed]

Much was said last year about getting stealing Pratt and Bitonti well after the first round in last year's draft (McCalvy has a nice article).  But I thought I'd start looking at the team's results (arbitrarily stopping at pick #10):

1) Brock Wilken - Had a very nice debut last year, but hit in the face this year.  Took a bit to return, but each month has been better and better.  Currently the 22 year-old is hitting 257/366/629/995 in July and 230/323/429/752 overall at AA this year. 

Comp A) Josh Knoth: The 18 year old is holding his own at A-ball in the Carolinas with a 3.69 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 53.2 innings.

2) Mike Boeve: Boeve hits and keeps on hitting.  324/400/529/929 last year and 327/401/435/836 this year. The 22 year old might finally have found a bit of a challenge at AA, but is still hitting a solid 286/347/400/747. 

3) Eric Bitonti: One of the two steals that are often mentioned from the 2023 draft.  The 18 year old Bitonti is hitting 291/425/530/955 at Rookie ball this year.  Most likely will move up lock-step with Pratt. 

4) Jason Woodward - only pitched 4 innings over 3 starts at rookie ball and is currently on a rehab assignment. Recently turned 22. 

5) Ryan Birchard - similar to Woodward, Birchard has pitched 4 innings in one start and is currently on the 60 day disabled list. Just turned 21

6) Cooper Pratt - your newest top 100 ranked MLB prospect; Pratt was also a huge draft day steal.  Pratt is catching people's eyes at A-ball with 291/388/378/766 for the not quite yet 20 year old (Aug 18th). He is likely to hit Wisconsin A+ this year with BItonti taking his place at Carolina. 

7) Tate Kuehner: The 23 year old is getting decent results as a starter in Wisconsin A+ ball. 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 59.2 IP.

8) Craig Yoho: Originally signed with a $10k signing bonus (slot = $197k), Yoho could possibly be the first of the 2023 draft class that will reach the MLB level.  Fast tracked as a reliever, Yoho has 31 Ks in 15.1 IP (18.2 K/9!!!) at AA this year and 16.7K/9 over both years (38 IP) with only 2.8 BB/9.  

9) Mark Manfredi: The 24 yo is piggy-back starting at A+ and putting up mediocre numbers overall. 4.02 ERA with 1.42 WHIP over 53.2 innings in 15 outings. 

10) Morris Austin: Another 24 yo, but being used exclusively as an RP at A-ball Carolina.  4.15 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 43.1 innings (not quite 2 IP / outing). 

It is really impressive to see a clear path for 5 of the top 9 draft picks to make an impact at the MLB level only one year after the draft!  

- Wilken and Boeve are showing they can hit at the AA level and could be hitting at the MLB level next year. 

- Pratt and Bitonti likewise at lower levels while getting a lot of scouting praise to go with the on-the-field results.

- Yoho is the most "amusing" pick of the group.  Drafted and signed partially to save money so they could sign Pratt and Bitonti, Yoho might beat them all to the MLB level as he is currently dominating AA.  For 40-man roster reasons, I doubt he makes it until next year, but otherwise, it wouldn't be shocking to see him up late in the season. He will most likely make AAA after starting the season in A+ this year.  That alone is impressive. 

Plus there is still plenty of time for the others to get find their footing in the MiLB level.  This draft could one day be looked back upon as transformative for the Brewer organization. 

[LouisEly]

I'm still trying to figure out what happened with Pratt.  How did so many other teams not know that he could be signed for under $1.4M?  Did Pratt put up too big of a number pre-draft and then once they got past the 3rd round drop his number?  If so, did no other teams have $1.4M remaining at that point? 

Whoever the Brewers scout is in Indiana deserves a big raise.  Yoho, Letson, Adamczewski.

[CheeseheadInQC]

There are probably a lot of teams that are loving their draft right now. It was a great draft. It seems like there are two areas in which the Brewers stood out: Pick distribution and late round college pitching.

I looked at three of the major quadrants, sort of, I stopped after round 4 for college hitters (I didn't do college pitchers because there were too many to dig all the way back to the rounds where the Brewers selected most of theirs).

1. College hitters: The success rate so far for guys in this category taken before pick 60 is really good. So while Wilken and Boeve each has outperformed his draft slot a bit, neither would be considered a real outlier. Good picks, and the Brewers avoided the few guys who look like misses so far, but nothing really out of the ordinary. Wilken, for example, would probably rank 10th right now offensively among college hitters picked in the first four rounds.

2. Prep hitters: Half of the prep hitters who signed from the 2023 draft class have been at least league average hitters in low-A. Yep, I was shocked by it as well. And that isn't even mentioning the three guys, including two Brewers prospects, who have posted 140+ wRC+ in the Complex League. The success rate so far for this group is absurd.

3. Prep pitchers: The first 10 high school pitchers selected are either holding their own at low-A (or high-A in the case of the Marlins' duo) or dominating in the Complex League. After that, the results get to be more of a coin flip, but there are enough success stories where Letson or a pre-injury Hayden Robinson aren't really outliers either.

So where did the Brewers stand out?

1. Like I said, I did not do a deep dive into college pitching, but I can't believe that getting what the Brewers have from money-saving senior signs Yoho and Kuehner and 12th-rounder Wichrowski was normal (to say nothing of their amazing undrafted free agent). If their first two college pitchers from the draft can make strong showings when healthy, especially if Birchard lives up to the preseason hype, this group becomes even more valuable.

2. Pick distribution. That amazing prep class? Fewer than 100 high school draft picks signed, meaning that on average teams drafted and signed three high schoolers apiece.

The Brewers signed eight.

The Brewers only took two college bats, but both picks were made before the success rate dropped considerably.

[Playing Catch]

Nice write-up... Knoth is 18 until August. Bitoni is 18 until November (!)

[CheezWizHed]

On 7/13/2024 at 8:10 AM, Playing Catch said:

Nice write-up... Knoth is 18 until August. Bitoni is 18 until November (!)

Yes, I mathed that one up badly...😉Fixed now.  Thanks

[CheezWizHed]

On 7/13/2024 at 7:55 AM, CheeseheadInQC said:

There are probably a lot of teams that are loving their draft right now. It was a great draft. It seems like there are two areas in which the Brewers stood out: Pick distribution and late round college pitching.

In general yes.  But I can't think of a draft where we had 3 players so close to MLB one year later, a high schooler already on the top 100, and another gaining high praise.  Every draft has one or two players (especially high picks) take off.  Just impressive how high picks and low picks (or non-picks) have produced so quickly.

[jay87shot]

Don't forget KC Hunt was an undrafted free agent 2.28 era 91 k/14 bb in 59.1 innings. 

Brayden Root as well maybe not really as much off a prospect though.

[snoogans8056]

On 7/12/2024 at 5:20 PM, LouisEly said:

Whoever the Brewers scout is in Indiana deserves a big raise.  Yoho, Letson, Adamczewski.

It’s actually a woman named Ginger Poulson. Look at this years draft and take note of all the late round midwest high schoolers that she got drafted (9, 10, 13, 17, 19, and 20).

Also Luke Adams from years past is a late steal from her as well.

[SF70]

‘Down on the farm’ ranked our ‘23 class #1. Nice to have a non-biased opinion that confirms what many of us have known for sometime. “Franchise-altering” is not hyperbolic, it’s fitting.

When what’s looking like the best ‘24 IFA positional class in the game is added to now what’s looking like one of the top ‘24 teenage pitching classes in baseball, this organization is stock-piling teenage talent like no other team in baseball.

Then we have the thought of having a minimum of 3 of the top 35-40 picks (and the slot money to go with them) in next years draft that adds what should be another top draft-class’s worth of talent to what is starting to look like a farm system that can become absolutely monstrous, leading to powerhouse big-league teams through the rest of this decade and possibly beyond.