Farmhands Eligible for Rule 5 40-Man Roster Protection - UPDATE: Shane Smith to ChiSox with 1st Pick

[Jastro]

Shane Smith will be the 1st pick to the White Sox

https://x.com/JonathanMayo/status/1866859640664801354?t=04g-Iweyp1cC4E4Ne4-qDw&s=19

[sveumrules]

3 minutes ago, Jastro said:

Shane Smith will be the 1st pick to the White Sox

https://x.com/JonathanMayo/status/1866859640664801354?t=04g-Iweyp1cC4E4Ne4-qDw&s=19

Cool for Shane to get a potential express lane to MLB. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP the last two years he has some pretty impressive rankings…

2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th)

[Joseph Zarr]

Very happy for the player. Shane Smith has always been willing to sit down with Seth for some very open and earnest interviews. Very happy he is getting a streamlined opportunity to enter an MLB clubhouse and pitching staff.

AND, I'm not going to lie at the present time this one stings. I will never understand why an org like the Crew would leave him unprotected. He is a pitcher that profiles as essentially capable in any role. And, he's a guy who just felt like was only tapping into what he could become. Today is a bittersweet day for this Minor League Link reporter. 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

I will say this:

The Brewers are carving out a very meaningful presence in the UDFA department. They've now added (and lost Mr. Smith, obviously - for now, at least) a RHP Shane Smith, RHP Chase Costello and a RHP KC Hunt.

Here's looking to you RHP Miles Langhorne

[Ro Mueller]

Hey, at least we have Vinny Capra.

[Joseph Zarr]

24 minutes ago, Ro Mueller said:

Hey, at least we have Vinny Capra.

Damn you. 

[Jim Goulart]

29 minutes ago, Ro Mueller said:

Hey, at least we have Vinny Capra.

That would be "out of options in 2025" Vinny Capra, by the way.

Never mind Capra, they had the spot open!

[Joseph Zarr]

20 minutes ago, Jim Goulart said:

That would be "out of options in 2025" Vinny Capra, by the way.

Never mind Capra, they had the spot open!

It just gets worse doesn't it? This doesn't even get into...ok I'm getting into it...trading RHP TJ Shook for LHP Tyler Jay and now also rostering LHP Tyler Jay over Smith...and oh wait...we have the open spots, regardless.

Matt Arnold right now:

Our unanimous GM of the Year (well deserved) essentially traded RHP's TJ Shook and Shane Smith for INF Vinny Capra and LHP Tyler Jay. That's a zesty and contentious end-of-the-roster maneuver. I pride myself I can get worked up about this.😅

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It just gets worse doesn't it? This doesn't even get into...ok I'm getting into it...trading RHP TJ Shook for LHP Tyler Jay and now also rostering LHP Tyler Jay over Smith...and oh wait...we have the open spots, regardless.

Now watch the Brewers pick a lefty RP in the draft... 😂

[Joseph Zarr]

6 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Now watch the Brewers pick a lefty RP in the draft... 😂

[Joseph Zarr]

They did take a Low Velo lefty. 

Starting pitcher by season's end with the Redbirds tho he began relieving last year. Change up is his pitch - at least in in the outings I saw vs the Sounds. Throws several fastballs but they all sit 89-92ish if I recall correct.

[biedergb]

Sad. Confused. Trying to trust the model.

But still very very sad. Shane Smith is not only a good pitcher, but a guy you completely root for.

Still unsure how/why they would leave him unprotected, and keep Jay or Capra???

Anyway, I've vented. Now it's time to see what's next.

[biedergb]

OK. The other thing to consider. For so many years we have had prospects who we as fans thought so highly of, and probably overvalued, and some of those we worried could be selected in rule V draft, and most years these players weren't selected.

This year, we had a RP who we thought highly of, but who is among 5-6 pitchers at the AAA level who could be MLB ready this season, and he was in that group, and was not only selected, but selected first, indicating that our prospects have a lot of value. We still have Misio, Henderson, Hunt, Yoho and Rodriguez that are AAA and all equal to or higher rated than Smith. AND the team protected Chad Patrick (who is a starter, so that is a difference) over Smith, so the team clearly values him more.

My only critique right now, is if Smith was not going to be protected, could they have tried to deal him for another prospect?? Or did the brass really thing he was going to go unselected??

OK. maybe my vent really ends now?

Or I guess maybe I will post more later.....

[CheezWizHed]

There certainly is an element of gambling that goes on with these roster shuffles. At the end of the day, the Rule 5 draft is fun to watch, but rarely has had significant impact to the teams. Smith's likely ceiling is middle-leverage BP arm like Hoby Milner or Joel Payamps.  Valuable, but not a crippling loss. 

[biedergb]

29 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Smith's likely ceiling is middle-leverage BP arm like Hoby Milner or Joel Payamps

I will disagree. His "ceiling" is mid-rotation starter, however, his secondary pitches were not as effective (some of the metrics or pitching savvy commentators please correct me here if I am off base), and his prior arm injury probably limited his SP potential. That is why (as I still seek counseling) I believe Chad Patrick was added and Smith was not. He could be a middle-to-high leverage BP arm. I think his floor is middle leverage BP arm right now.

I think the emergence of Wichrowski, Hunt and Yoho from '23 draft, and I would assume that the team eyes some break out form '24 arms, led to this gamble.

A team is never perfect, but I would imagine that he would have been at least valuable trade asset, although I don't know the details on that - if we had say traded Smith Monday, would he still have been rule V eligible? Or could the other team still add a player like him to the 40 man roster after that deadline date?

[Jim Goulart]

There were 48 players the Brewers could choose to protect from Rule 5, as the initial post in this thread shows. Even though we broke the 48 down by current level, all those protected from the minor league Rule 5 would be listed in this pool:

Baseball America explains:

There is also a minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Any player who is on the 38-player Triple-A roster is protected from being picked in the minor league Rule 5 draft.

So, Miguel Briceno (chosen by the Twins) was one of those not listed at this level. Since the Brewers had room to add two players (RHP Zach Peek and OF Garrett Spain), the most they could have protected was 36, turns out Briceno was not included within that group.

[CheezWizHed]

23 hours ago, biedergb said:

I will disagree. His "ceiling" is mid-rotation starter, however, his secondary pitches were not as effective (some of the metrics or pitching savvy commentators please correct me here if I am off base), and his prior arm injury probably limited his SP potential. That is why (as I still seek counseling) I believe Chad Patrick was added and Smith was not. He could be a middle-to-high leverage BP arm. I think his floor is middle leverage BP arm right now.

I think the emergence of Wichrowski, Hunt and Yoho from '23 draft, and I would assume that the team eyes some break out form '24 arms, led to this gamble.

A team is never perfect, but I would imagine that he would have been at least valuable trade asset, although I don't know the details on that - if we had say traded Smith Monday, would he still have been rule V eligible? Or could the other team still add a player like him to the 40 man roster after that deadline date?

True.  The Brewers could've traded Smith instead of losing him. Yes, the other team would've had to add him to the 40-man roster.  This is how we got Hudson last year (kind of similar situation honestly).

If Smith had any opportunity to be an SP, I'm certain the Brewers would've kept him.  That was pretty clearly the difference between Smith and Patrick.  Smith's 93-94 MPH fastball would probably dip down to 91-92 MPH as a starter.  Perhaps his control and other pitches could give him a mid-rotation ceiling, but I doubt it.

There still is the chance he gets returned to the Brewers too.  He didn't have much time at AAA and needs to make a big jump to MLB and stay there...granted the Chisox don't have much talent in general.

[CheeseheadInQC]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:39 AM, biedergb said:

A team is never perfect, but I would imagine that he would have been at least valuable trade asset, although I don't know the details on that - if we had say traded Smith Monday, would he still have been rule V eligible? Or could the other team still add a player like him to the 40 man roster after that deadline date?

I don’t believe the other team could have added him. When the Brewers traded for Dunn, it happened before the deadline so they could add him. I think the only players who could be added to the 40-man between the protection deadline and the Rule 5 are free agents and players on another team’s 40-man via trade or waiver claim.

[Ro Mueller]

4 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

There were 48 players the Brewers could choose to protect from Rule 5, as the initial post in this thread shows.

Any player who is on the 38-player Triple-A roster is protected from being picked in the minor league Rule 5 draft.

Since the Brewers had room to add two players (RHP Zach Peek and OF Garrett Spain), the most they could have protected was 36, turns out Briceno was not included within that group.

Thank you. If I remove Shane Smith, Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick from the 48, that takes me to 45, with 9 players to leave unprotected.

Without really understanding the potential the Brewers see in some of these players, I’d have had these as a first 8: McWilliams (old), Stallings (old), Polancic (old), Morelo (injured forever; 2025 free agent), Kahle (barely plays, 2025 free agent), Victor Torres (barely plays), Figueroa (2025 free agent), Adam Hall (2025 free agent).

To me, the 9th and final unprotected player would have been another 2025 free agent (e.g. Eduarqui Fernandez) or a recent signee (e.g. Bladimir Restituyo).

But Brewers’ brass knows best. Good luck to Miguel Briceno. Hopefully we’ll see him at Cedar Rapids this year.