Farmhands Eligible for Rule 5 40-Man Roster Protection - UPDATE: Shane Smith to ChiSox with 1st Pick

[LouisEly]

Russell Smith and Justin Yeager get no love around here.

Russell Smith gets the benefit of being a lefty, and has only given up 1 HR in 37 IP this year; walks are a little high, but down from last year and tall lefties take a while to harness control (and despite those walks only has a 1.168 WHIP).  Yeager is the forgotten part of the Contreras trade after missing almost all of 2023, but has taken the closer role at Biloxi to the tune of 14 saves and, IIRC, has a pretty big arm (and a 1.066 WHIP).  Maybe the minor league mavens @Joseph Zarr@Spencer Michaelis@wiguy94 can update me on Yeager's scouting report.

I'm also excited about Crow, but with his FB sitting in the low-90's before TJ and with Rule 5 picks having to stick in the majors, I don't know that a team is going to pick him and make him do essentially his "rehab assignment" at the major leagues.  His first go-around in AA wasn't great, even if it was aggressive placement, but he only has four good games in AA in 2023 to demonstrate he can handle the jump to AA, much less the majors.  I just don't see another team taking the risk on carrying him the whole season.

If I'm ranking them, it's:

1. Henderson
2. Patrick
3. Shane Smith
4. Yeager
5. Russell Smith
6. Crow
7. Collins

My 2-5 are all very, very close to each other.  The odd thing about the Rule 5 is that relievers are more likely to stick with the drafting team than starters, so a big part of me wants to put Yeager at #2.

[CheeseheadInQC]

32 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

If I'm ranking them, it's:

1. Henderson
2. Patrick
3. Shane Smith
4. Yeager
5. Russell Smith
6. Crow
7. Collins

My 2-5 are all very, very close to each other.  The odd thing about the Rule 5 is that relievers are more likely to stick with the drafting team than starters, so a big part of me wants to put Yeager at #2.

This is close to mine, except I would flop 2-3 and 4-5. I know some scouting reports were fairly high on Shane Smith’s profile as a reliever before he moved to the rotation, and I think that would enhance his chances of getting taken in the Rule 5 draft.

[Joseph Zarr]

34 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

This is close to mine, except I would flop 2-3 and 4-5. I know some scouting reports were fairly high on Shane Smith’s profile as a reliever before he moved to the rotation, and I think that would enhance his chances of getting taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Yeah, this is spot on imho. The only absolute locks, by my eyes, are RHP Logan Henderson and RHP Shane Smith. Too much high end stuff in both these young men's toolkits to leave exposed - no brainers. I love me some RHP Chad Patrick - he's just a guy who knows how to pitch and really has a nice legit mix of pitches. Will the Brewers protect him? Maybe. Maybe. He's leading the International League in several important categories and even when he's not on top of his game (like his recent start @ Durham), he still finds ways to settle down and give his squad 5 IP or more. That's valuable. I'm very curious to see how the Brewers handle his status after the season is over. He isn't dominant by any stretch but he absolutely can be and has shown he may be just scratching the surface. I like the movement on his pitches - deceptively active.

Yeager was Rule 5 eligible last season and went unprotected. He was also injured the majority of the season, obviously. Even tho he's demonstrated really good form - for the most part; he struggled quite a bit in May and June but has been fantastic for well over a month now - and even tho he plays the part of an 8th and 9th inning guy for Biloxi I don't think he's shown anything he didn't show in his 2023 limited action that would scream they'll protect him. Remember, one of my favorite late season risers in RHP Tobias Myers also went entirely unprotected in 2023. 

Smith is in the best shape of his young career. His change-up continues to be his best pitch. His slider has improved since first entering the system and can certainly be a strikeout pitch when he's ahead in the count. The heater still sits 92-93 mph. He's been much improved, really, since late last summer. Will the Brewers protect him? Probably not. 

Obviously, I love me some Isaac Collins - having driven that hype train since late last spring. He's also getting more looks at different positions in 2024. We're seeing him at 3B and CF on the regular of late so obviously they are trying to expand his utility relevance. He's fast. He's got a very good bat and a good eye for the ball. Will they protect him? Probably not.

If anything comes back as a reminder every year for me, it's that I tend to overvalue these players quite a bit more than the Rule 5 process would indicate. Most teams just tend to leave the majority of their players exposed to the draft. I don't expect any different this Fall for the Brewers. 

[biedergb]

On 8/2/2024 at 9:28 PM, wiguy94 said:

Miley, Montas, Ross, Sanchez, Adames are likely free agents.

Ashby, Bukauskas, Herget, Jay, Paredes, Milner, Payamps, Wilson, Zastryzny, Haase, Capra, Hicklen are potential non-tender/DFA candidates.

The real question is how many spots will be open. From Wiguy94's earlier post.

Miley may retire, or could re-sign late in the off season (allowing time after the rule V draft). Adames will be tendered but likely plays elsewhere next year. Sanchez - is he an option? And Ross I think is gone, as well as Montas unless one of the ball out the remainder of the year.

Ashby is interesting - still likely DFA because of his contract that no one will claim. Herget, Paredes, Jay, Zastyzny, Haase, Capra and I think even Bukauskas are nice depth and replaceable.

So from the 46ish or so guys on the 40 man (due to the # on 60day IL) - that is 6-10 players who could/would/should be removed, opening up about a few spots. And there is the likelihood that players on the verge or already on the 40 man (think either Carlos Rodriguez, or one of the relievers above) could be moved in a trade.

I do not see the Brewers being as active in waiver/DFA or rule V pick ups as they have in the past given the number or quality players in the affiliates currently. So it will be more of an egress out this off season.

But I still stand with my list from earlier - that Henderson and Shane Smith are the locks, with Patrick and others being considered. I like Russell Smith and Justin Yeager, but their ages, limited history of success and I don't believe either has an elite pitch that makes them seem MLB ready or worth the roster spot.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Even tho he's demonstrated really good form - for the most part; he struggled quite a bit in May and June but has been fantastic for well over a month now - and even tho he plays the part of an 8th and 9th inning guy for Biloxi I don't think he's shown anything he didn't show in his 2023 limited action that would scream they'll protect him.

For the most part, but there is one big thing that's different this year - his walks are way down.  In the 2023 AFL he walked 5 in 8.2 IP, which followed 3 in 2.2 IP in his very limited 2023 season, which followed 5.1/9 in his prior AA season in 2022.  This year - 2.2/9. 

The walks perhaps scared teams away more last year than the injury.  This year, no high walk rate or injury.

He's not major league closer material, but in a season where Jacob Barnes was give 46 appearances by his 9th team, I would not at all be surprised if he was taken.

[Joseph Zarr]

44 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

For the most part, but there is one big thing that's different this year - his walks are way down.  In the 2023 AFL he walked 5 in 8.2 IP, which followed 3 in 2.2 IP in his very limited 2023 season, which followed 5.1/9 in his prior AA season in 2022.  This year - 2.2/9. 

The walks perhaps scared teams away more last year than the injury.  This year, no high walk rate or injury.

He's not major league closer material, but in a season where Jacob Barnes was give 46 appearances by his 9th team, I would not at all be surprised if he was taken.

Anything is possible. Just take one glance to the incredible rise of one RHP Max Lazar - obviously, much different circumstances as he left in Minor League FA. BUT, the point being, all these young guys have talent. The right situation, the right circumstances...etc. I personally have a hard time seeing Yeager selected in Rule 5 but it certainly doesn't mean it won't happen. I think Barnes' circumstances aren't a direct correlation to a Rule 5 unproven situation but I get what you're alluding to here.

[biedergb]

I think the big question - is let's say this is the 2015-2016 Brewers, do you draft a guy like Yeager or R. Smith and keep him on the big club? I know they did with WCW in 2014. But he was 22 at the time and could have developed into a starter. And in retrospect it was looked as a bad decision (he didn't provide value and his development was likely ruined).

I don't know that Yeager and Smith scream that much potential to be MLB regulars for the season by next spring training. There will be other arms that could be available (FA, DFA or trades). I mean don't get me wrong, I like them both quite a bit, but I don't know that they move the needle enough for an organization to say "yes we will use him the BP and keep him around all year".

Henderson - yes. S. Smith - possibly, particularly given his rise in the past 15 months particularly in light of the fact that his college career that was cut pretty short (COVID and injuries).

Russell - because he is a lefty more than Yeager.

[wiguy94]

Personally I think the only lock is Henderson. I think there are arguments for others like Patrick and Smith, but the 40-man is going to be tight this offseason especially if Yoho and/or Misiorowski get added to the 40 for the stretch run.

[brewerralph]

I would like to see Yoho added to the roster this year, but I don't see how they can. Hall needs to be added to the roster soon, so they don't burn up his option. I think they will let some of the older players with no options go this winter {Hoby, Herget, Miley, Montas and Ross} this will open some spots on the roster to protect a players like Henderson, Smith and Patrick. I think Crow would be a good add, but I agree with most of you that you don't want to rehab at the major league level, so Crow should be safe.

This would let the team bring younger players with options to move up and down to the minors easier.

 

Louis Ely

 

[wallus]

Henderson, maybe Smith. Other than that, I don't see them protecting anyone else.

 

If they were higher on Patrick, he would have gotten a shot this year with all of the injuries.

[wiguy94]

Here's my Rule 5 draft hot take. Blake Holub has a sneaky chance of being taken. The stuff models absolutely love his splitter, but he has basically never thrown it this season. Maybe because the Brewers as an org just don't like splitters. I could see a team pick snag him and have him way up the splitter usage.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Here's my Rule 5 draft hot take. Blake Holub has a sneaky chance of being taken. The stuff models absolutely love his splitter, but he has basically never thrown it this season. Maybe because the Brewers as an org just don't like splitters. I could see a team pick snag him and have him way up the splitter usage.

This is probably because the Brewers as an org also can't really hit the splitter. 😯

I'm kidding (kind of. not really. maybe just a little bit. Or not at all). I mean RHP Tanner Shears has about one of the filthiest splitters I've seen in the past several years. One of my biggest heartbreaks heading into this season was I wasn't going to see the further development of that pitch. 

Anywho, as to Holub, the splitter is a relatively new pitch for him with varying levels of control. In his last interview with Jeff Hem of the Sounds, he didn't even mention the pitch. It was all fastball and slider talk. I personally see the pitch as an off-season development akin to RHP Shane Smith developing the slider in the AFL last season. But, to your point: when he is throwing it it is pretty dang nasty. I could have sworn I've seen him use it in several outings of late with the Shuckers. But, I'm an old geezer who often makes wild n wooly claims on the basics. As you both know and love to point out 😆

[Joseph Zarr]

Ummmm. Yeah. Just going to leave this here:

 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Ummmm. Yeah. Just going to leave this here:

 

Would be criminal if they don't add him to the 40-man roster before he hits MiLB FA.

[Joseph Zarr]

Precisely why I added it here and not the Minor League FA thread😅. They've invested 8 years into this trajectory. There is no world I live in as a Brewers fan where Ernesto isn't simply a Bauers-level roster experiment next season on the 40-Man. And, it truly does feel like he  is just scratching the surface and coming into his own. He has already proven he has the plate discipline evolving at a very admirable rate. Just put him on the 40-Man and let's be done with it.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Precisely why I added it here and not the Minor League FA thread😅. They've invested 8 years into this trajectory. There is no world I live in as a Brewers fan where Ernesto isn't simply a Bauers-level roster experiment next season on the 40-Man. And, it truly does feel like he  is just scratching the surface and coming into his own. He has already proven he has the plate discipline evolving at a very admirable rate. Just put him on the 40-Man and let's be done with it.

Especially because it's a position the Brewers have very much struggled to consistently fill since Fielder left. Maybe Ernesto doesn't pan out, but I don't see how you could just willingly let him go when 1B is such a problem position and Ernesto has such high upside at the position.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Especially because it's a position the Brewers have very much struggled to consistently fill since Fielder left. Maybe Ernesto doesn't pan out, but I don't see how you could just willingly let him go when 1B is such a problem position and Ernesto has such high upside at the position.

[wiguy94]

Just now, Joseph Zarr said:

Bauers is just such an easy non-tender this offseason as well. Ernesto can just take his 40-man spot. Career 83 wRC+ through 1700 MLB PA and and 85 wRC+ this season. 

[jay87shot]

I think we will make a bunch of early offseason trades like we saw with getting Bauers, Clarke, Dunn, Patrick for guys like Bauers, Jay, Herget, Capra and maybe Hoby, Wilson, Hicklen, Zas, Bauk. If we could get guys like Patrick or Avina in any of those trades (good potential guys not on 40 man) I would be stoked. My guess is we trade a bunch of 40 man fringe guys real soon when the offseason begins. To bad we couldn't keep Paredes to do that with as well.

[CheezWizHed]

I know most of the posts were in August before Ashby "returned", but looks highly unlikely Ashby is anywhere but the Brewer's roster next year.  And that is a good thing.

[SF70]

I think they will roster Henderson-Patrick & Martinez.

I think all 3 are locks.

Henderson goes without saying. Patrick proved he can pitch and the team will want him as a depth shuttle spot starter. 

Martinez can replace Bauers on the 40-man and potentially give the team their LH option at 1B next season and beyond. The EV/K-rate forces the decision to roster him.

[brewerralph]

I had posted earlier that older players should be let go, I added Ross to that list, but I was wrong about Ross. The brewers found his perfect roll for Ross. Henderson, Patrick, Shane Smith and Martinez should be added to the 40man roster but when I pullup the roster and see the age Rea will be 35 next year. I will be ok if he is not brought back.

[CheezWizHed]

I've not followed Logan Henderson much.  Why do people say he is a lock?  His results and innings are pretty low for a starter.  Youth is on his side, but I'm assuming there is more people are seeing?

Patrick looks like he would be ready this year to be SP depth that shuttles between AAA and the MLB.  

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I've not followed Logan Henderson much.  Why do people say he is a lock?  His results and innings are pretty low for a starter.  Youth is on his side, but I'm assuming there is more people are seeing?

Patrick looks like he would be ready this year to be SP depth that shuttles between AAA and the MLB.  

He’d be an easy Rule 5 pick with MLB ready stuff and command for a bullpen role. His change up is especially nasty.

There are 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP across all levels of the minors the last two years. Logan ranks…

34.0 K% (1st) | 27.3 K-BB% (1st) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) | 3.08 xFIP (5th) | .191 AVG (9th) | 78.0 LOB% (18th) |  3.04 ERA (23rd) | 6.6 BB% (46th) | 3.53 FIP (54th)

[sveumrules]

Obviously he's been a little bit older, but looking at that same last two years minimum 150 IP across all levels leaderboard Shane Smith has some pretty impressive rankings too...

2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th, tied with Misio) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) | 77.6 LOB% (21st)