Farmhands Eligible for Rule 5 40-Man Roster Protection - UPDATE: Shane Smith to ChiSox with 1st Pick

[Jim Goulart]

By mid-November (the afternoon of Tuesday November 12th, we believe), teams across MLB will have to set their 40-man rosters in order to identify which minor league players they wish to protect from exposure to the Rule 5 draft in December. Last November saw the Brewers add a slam-dunk player in catcher Jeferson Quero, who was sadly lost for the season on Nashville's Opening Day to a shoulder injury. The Crew also added RHP Bradley Blalock, a move few saw coming. Blalock was just traded to Colorado, along with RHP Yujanyer Herrera, in a deal that netted RH reliever Nick Mears. Finally, Milwaukee made a roster-setting deadline trade with Philadelphia, giving up OF Hendry Mendez and INF Robert Moore, for INF Oliver Dunn, who was immediately added to the team's 40-man.

Image courtesy of Biloxi Shuckers (Logan Henderson photo)

Who is most likely to be added this November?

Quick primer thanks to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince:

What is the Rule 5 Draft?

A draft that allows clubs that do not have a full 40-man roster to select certain non-40-man players from other organizations. Essentially, it is an avenue for teams to identify and give a Major League opportunity to players that they feel have been held back elsewhere.

Players signed at age 18 or younger must be added to their club’s 40-man roster within five seasons or else become eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Players signed at 19 or older must be protected within four seasons.

Like the amateur Draft (officially known as the Rule 4 Draft), the Rule 5 Draft is held in reverse order of standings from the previous season. Unlike the amateur Draft, not every club will make a selection in the Rule 5. Those that do must pay $100,000 to the club from which the player was selected, and the player must remain on the new club’s 26-man roster (or injured list) for the entirety of the following season or else be placed on outright waivers. If the player clears waivers, he must be offered back to his original team for $50,000 and can be outrighted to the Minors only if his original team does not take him back. (This prevents teams from pilfering players from other teams and then stashing them in their Minor League system.)

When is the Rule 5 Draft?

This winter’s Rule 5 Draft will be held Dec. 6.

 

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Eligible players are listed alphabetically within their current level of play, and we'll edit this thread occasionally as rosters adjust in the season's final months:

AAA Nashville:

• 1B/C Wes Clarke
• INF Ray Delgado
• RHP Jon Duplantier
• RHP Deivi Garcia
• OF Jimmy Herron
• RHP Easton McGee
• RHP Evan McKendry
• RHP Sam McWilliams 
• RHP Vinny Nittoli
• OF Jared Oliva
• LHP Thomas Pannone
• RHP Chad Patrick
• INF Anthony Seigler
• RHP Garrett Stallings
• INF Freddy Zamora

 

AA Biloxi:

• RHP Coleman Crow
• OF/INF Adam Hall
• RHP Logan Henderson
• RHP Blake Holub
• C Nick Kahle
• LHP Brandon Knarr
• INF Casey Martin
• 1B Ernesto Martinez
• C Darrien Miller
• INF Ethan Murray
• OF Bladimir Restituyo
• LHP Russell Smith
• RHP Shane Smith
• INF Zavier Warren
• RHP Justin Yeager

 

High-A Wisconsin:

• RHP Alexander Cornielle
• RHP Stiven Cruz
• OF Eduarqui Fernandez
• RHP Jeferson Figueroa
• INF/OF Eduardo Garcia
• RHP Edwin Jimenez
• OF Hedbert Perez
• RHP Jake Polancic
• C Ramon Rodriguez
• RHP Yerlin Rodriguez
• C Victor Torres
• OF/INF Jheremy Vargas

 

A-Ball Carolina:

• INF/OF/RHP Miguel Briceno
• C Blayberg Diaz
• C David Garcia
• OF Yhoswar Garcia
• RHP Fray Morelo
• OF/INF Kaylan Nicasia

 

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Feel free to discuss and predict in the comments below, but I see the potentials as such:

Lock:

• RHP Logan Henderson

Just Barely South of Lock:

• RHP Chad Patrick

Under Fairly Strong Consideration:

• RHP Coleman Crow
• RHP Yerlin Rodriguez
• RHP Shane Smith

Could Sneak In:

• RHP Easton McGee

 

 

View full article

 

[biedergb]

Logan Henderson is a lock.

Coleman Crow will be interesting - we may have to protect him to not let another team pick him up and let him rehab and keep him for free. Although I know there are rules about the # of games played and if on IL then they have to be active the next year?

Shane Smith is one that I have close to a lock since he can be a reliever in the bigs right now.

The others are a long shot - Patrick looks good so we will see. The others are unlikely to stay on a big league active roster for 1/2 season.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'd probably put Shane Smith as more likely than Patrick. Patrick has all the numbers but the Brewers seem to lack confidence in him.  They have been desperate for starting pitching and even traded for Keuchel and Montes all while Patrick is destroying AAA. Makes me wonder if they would protect him.

Rounding out the unlikely but worthy of mention would be: Alexander Cornielle Wes Clarke, Russell Smith, and Ernesto Martinez. 

[wiguy94]

36 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I'd probably put Shane Smith as more likely than Patrick. Patrick has all the numbers but the Brewers seem to lack confidence in him.  They have been desperate for starting pitching and even traded for Keuchel and Montes all while Patrick is destroying AAA. Makes me wonder if they would protect him.

Rounding out the unlikely but worthy of mention would be: Alexander Cornielle Wes Clarke, Russell Smith, and Ernesto Martinez. 

Wes Clarke will be an interesting one. He seems like he will have a very limited role in the MLB, but in that role he could be outstanding. He seriously crushes LHP and is atrocious against RHP. Is a power over hit 1B/DH weak side platoon worth protecting when Hoskins will likely be around in 2025? I don't know.

Expected slash line vs LHP - .300/.424/.588, .428 xwOBA, 34% whiff rate, 18% BB-rate, 26% K-rate, 44% hard hit hate, 15% barrel rate

Expected slash line vs RHP - .211/.300/.392, .304 xwOBA, 44% whiff rate, 46% hard hit rate, 13% barrel rate, 10% BB-rate, 40% K-rate

[kelsch]

Excellent work. I love looking for this article each year as I find it hard to know exactly who does or does not qualify. I generally agree with your choices for protection and the responding comments all make great points. 

I ask again for the second year...Why not give us this article before the trade deadline? Doing so would allow us to better know who would perhaps be good ideas to push in the mock trades we all discuss if they will probably not be protected anyway. Just something to consider...

Thanks again for the work put into the article!

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

 Henderson, Crow & Smith are my top three & I agree with Henderson being a lock. Patrick, I guess his status could change if he finds his way up here & does well, but I get the feeling the organization doesn't think his stuff plays up to the big league level. This is by far the best season he's had. I like Collins but when it's all said & done I don't think they'll have room for him. I compare him to another recent casualty I liked---Cam Devanney.

I'd say Clarke is possible but pretty doubtful.

[BrewCrew8675309]

20 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I'd probably put Shane Smith as more likely than Patrick. Patrick has all the numbers but the Brewers seem to lack confidence in him.  They have been desperate for starting pitching and even traded for Keuchel and Montes all while Patrick is destroying AAA. Makes me wonder if they would protect him.

Rounding out the unlikely but worthy of mention would be: Alexander Cornielle Wes Clarke, Russell Smith, and Ernesto Martinez. 

I think some players not mentioned will eat up 40 man roster positions just due to having to play between now and the end of the season. Really surprised we did not wrap in more 40man Rule V guys in outgoing trades. 

Btw, I also agree that Shane Smith has more value than Patrick (or Collins for that matter). I would not be surprised if someone grabs our A level pitching prospects for some brief pen work before "pulling their hammy" for 6 months.

No reason WClarke and EMcGee don't get picked just as flyers. 

[Scooterfletcher]

Henderson, Patrick, Crow, Smith need to be locks.  Pitching pitching pitching.  Cant let Crow go before seeing him on the mound for a year and Patrick too good in aaa to expose.

 

I don’t see any positional player I’d want to protect for this upcoming year cycle, though a few could well pan out.  I’d let the chips fall how they may and protect zero positional though.

[rolafaive]

I think it is time that MLB increases the roster limit from 40 to 45 so small market teams who groom these players and cannot afford the big name regularly can protect their investments for future players for their clubs.

 

[Playing Catch]

38 minutes ago, rolafaive said:

I think it is time that MLB increases the roster limit from 40 to 45 so small market teams who groom these players and cannot afford the big name regularly can protect their investments for future players for their clubs.

 

From a small-market team perspective and for competitive balance that makes good sense, but the players union already hates the current rules. Expect teams to have less control in the future rather than more.

[Outlander]

With starting pitching at such a premium would protect Henderson/Crow/Patrick.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

From a small-market team perspective and for competitive balance that makes good sense, but the players union already hates the current rules. Expect teams to have less control in the future rather than more.

Small market teams can and do make a living off waiver claims and trades as a result of the 40 man limit. Just look at the Brewers bullpen.  Megill, Hudson, Wilson, and Bukauskas, are all pickups due to the limits on their teams 40 man roster.

It does work both ways.

[Matt]

Henderson and Smith would be my locks. I'd like to see Clarke get a look too, but he's not on the first tier. 

Don't know what to do about Crowe but it'd be nice to see him pass through the Rule 5. 

Patrick is a cool story but his peripherals don't paint as gaudy a picture as he's shiny ERA and W/L. Would like to keep him but again, not on the same tier as a few others. 

[biedergb]

I think the sentiment on Patrick is that he would be a solid pitcher to keep, but may not have the stuff to entice most teams (except the A's/Rockies who need any pitching), and he is the type of player that can find a replacement through the waiver wire or trades.

 

The other thing is I fully expect the organization to look to release or trade a 40 man player or two (Herget, Haase, Dunn, Paredes, Bukauskas), with an opt out (Hoskins or Miley), and then trade a few fringe 40 man players like a Patrick or Clark (to teams needing pitching or power like the aforementioned A's, Rockies, Marlins etc).

Then additional prospects (like Crow, Smith) can be added for sure.

[BrewersRice]

The first good question is how many 40 man spots do we think will be open.

[Scooterfletcher]

Patrick should be kept before Clarke for sure.

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, BrewersRice said:

The first good question is how many 40 man spots do we think will be open.

Counting injured players we currently have 46 players on the 40-man.

Miley, Montas, Ross, Sanchez, Adames are likely free agents.

Ashby, Bukauskas, Herget, Jay, Paredes, Milner, Payamps, Wilson, Zastryzny, Haase, Capra, Hicklen are potential non-tender/DFA candidates.

That leaves about 29 locks for the 40-man in Yelich, Perkins, Mitchell, Frelick, Chourio, Turang, Ortiz, Monasterio, Hoskins (seems likely to opt in), Dunn, Black, Bauers, Quero, Contreras, Woodruff, Williams, Uribe, Rodriguez, Rea, Peralta, Peguero, Myers, Megill, Mears, Koenig, Hudson, Hall, Gasser, Civale as locks

[Lathund]

Henderson is the true most-protect lock, he'd 100% get picked. 

Smith is probably the second most likely to get picked, would make sense to protect him if the team expects to use him at some point. 

What I saw and read about Crow prior to his injury made me really excited about his future. Not sure what his timeline is, if he'll pitch in the minors at some point or not this year. So might be hard to know where he's at in terms of health, which would also make him a risky Rule 5 pick for someone. So might have a decent chance to slip through the Rule 5 draft. But I'd rather not chance it. 

Clarke and Collins don't strike me as the type of players teams would want to keep on their roster for the whole year, particularly not Clarke. 

Patrick I'm unsure about. Good surface-level numbers in AAA, but if the Brewers liked him as more than emergency backup/depth, I imagine he'd have been up at some point this year. 

 

[ctmyers]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Counting injured players we currently have 46 players on the 40-man.

Miley, Montas, Ross, Sanchez, Adames are likely free agents.

Ashby, Bukauskas, Herget, Jay, Paredes, Milner, Payamps, Wilson, Zastryzny, Haase, Capra, Hicklen are potential non-tender/DFA candidates.

That leaves about 29 locks for the 40-man in Yelich, Perkins, Mitchell, Frelick, Chourio, Turang, Ortiz, Monasterio, Hoskins (seems likely to opt in), Dunn, Black, Bauers, Quero, Contreras, Woodruff, Williams, Uribe, Rodriguez, Rea, Peralta, Peguero, Myers, Megill, Mears, Koenig, Hudson, Hall, Gasser, Civale as locks

Gasser will be on the 60-day, so we won't need to count him.  Ashby is under contract, so they'll definitely be keeping him around. 

I'm not counting Civale as a lock, unless he really impresses in the post season.  At the same time I think the Brewers and Murphy have a lot of trust built up in especially Milner, but also Payamps and Wilson. 

As far as the Rule 5 guys, I think it's Henderson only.  Maybe Shane Smith makes it, but the Brewers don't tend to protect fringe-y players.  That Nashville rotation should be stellar: Mis, Henderson, Ashby, C-Rod, Smith. 

[wiguy94]

42 minutes ago, ctmyers said:

Gasser will be on the 60-day, so we won't need to count him.  Ashby is under contract, so they'll definitely be keeping him around. 

I'm not counting Civale as a lock, unless he really impresses in the post season.  At the same time I think the Brewers and Murphy have a lot of trust built up in especially Milner, but also Payamps and Wilson. 

As far as the Rule 5 guys, I think it's Henderson only.  Maybe Shane Smith makes it, but the Brewers don't tend to protect fringe-y players.  That Nashville rotation should be stellar: Mis, Henderson, Ashby, C-Rod, Smith. 

There’s no 60-day IL during the offseason.

[Outlander]

Ashby definitely is a DFA candidate, nothing guaranteed there besides the money they owe them.

Civale stills has to pitch well these final two months to be tendered a contract.

 

 

[kelsch]

4 hours ago, ctmyers said:

Gasser will be on the 60-day, so we won't need to count him.  Ashby is under contract, so they'll definitely be keeping him around. 

I'm not counting Civale as a lock, unless he really impresses in the post season.  At the same time I think the Brewers and Murphy have a lot of trust built up in especially Milner, but also Payamps and Wilson. 

As far as the Rule 5 guys, I think it's Henderson only.  Maybe Shane Smith makes it, but the Brewers don't tend to protect fringe-y players.  That Nashville rotation should be stellar: Mis, Henderson, Ashby, C-Rod, Smith. 

At the end of every season, players on the 60-day DL get activated. As a consequence, they occupy spots on 40-man rosters. And then around the start of every spring training, players get placed on the 60-day DL, as it’s again made available.

[edfunderburk]

5 hours ago, ctmyers said:

Ashby is under contract, so they'll definitely be keeping him around. 

Ashby has not made any progress in his recovery. Is there any reason to believe (hope) that he is significantly better in 2025? If he is DFA’d, would Milwaukee owe him his full contract unless another team claims him on their 40-man roster? 

[Jim Goulart]

3 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

If he is DFA’d, would Milwaukee owe him his full contract unless another team claims him on their 40-man roster? 

The Brewers owe Ashby a guaranteed $16.25 million over the next three seasons, those would have been his arbitration years.

Article with the details 

Nobody is claiming Ashby.

[Playing Catch]

5 minutes ago, Jim Goulart said:

Nobody is claiming Ashby

I was hopeful a handful of appearances ago... Now? There's no way.