Under Rated Prospects

[jay87shot]

I thought this might be a nice place to discuss prospects that don't appear in any major top 30 style publications that might have some big upside. I feel like we for sure have a couple more Tobias Myers in the system who come out of no where and stun the scouting community. I don't mind discussing guys like Jadher Arienamo or KC Hunt who are in starting to be in most top 30 list but I'd prefer to keep it to the deeper cuts.

[jay87shot]

I will start I suppose.

Here is my top 5

1)Manny Rodriguez

To have the success that he has had as an 18 year old without massive stuff in A ball is impressive. If he can add a mph or two each year he could be a major prosect come 2026 or so. From what I read it seems like he is the classic mlb "bulldog" pitcher already.

2)Quinton Low

Quinton Low was probably the prospect I was most excited to see last year. He probably won't be a 2 way player after missing this year but the upside of his stuff, especially as a reliever is tantalizing. Hopefully we get him fully healthy and on track next year.

3)Nick Merkel

At 6'7' 255, it is understandable that he might take a bit longer than some. It just seems like every time he is mentioned he gets the job done. His k rates are solid and suggests there is upside (anyone know how hard he throws).

4)Yorman Galindez

There are probly 3/4 other young arms in Carolina that I could put here but 64 k's in 40 innings gets my attention. I know he has a really good curve and can still fill out some to add to the heater.

5)Ernesto Martinez

I feel like he is a guy like Garrett Cooper who won't quite get a chance with us and when he does with another team he will shine. He is super athletic for 6'6' and playing well for a AA team struggling to hit. Maybe he erupts with a move to more friendly confines next year. He could easily be a 20/20 or better candidate when it all comes together.

 

[wiguy94]

Manuel Rodriguez is Top 30 on Baseball America

[Spencer Michaelis]

Definitely with you on Yorman and Rodriguez. Though both are on BA's list. All three of the others are definitely fun names. I genuinely wonder if they'll consider adding Ernesto to the 40 man this offseason. Probably not, simply because it's going to be a 40 man crunch already. But the fact they'll likely have to think hard about it says a lot. Merkel is a low 90's guy who I've seen touch 94, but it appears to my eye that he throws a cutter/sinker combo, so the velo isn't what's driving the success on the fastball.

I have two guys in my Top 30 that aren't on any of the main lists in Josh Adamczewski and Ryan Birchard.

Deeper cuts who have the potential to make a really big leap... I'd say Jesus Rivero still can. He has the stuff to do it. Especially if he can make a leap in velo at some point. This has been a tough year for him though.

Hayden Robinson was probably on the precipice of it before his elbow injury. 

Jason Woodward's stuff is very intriguing to me. I'm hoping to get some actual data on his pitches at some point (beyond velo), because I think he might have 4 average or better pitches. 

On the position side, I think Hedbert Perez might resurrect his prospect status by this time next year (likely not to the heights it once was, but back to relevancy on these lists). Not too many 21 year olds hit the ball as hard as he does, and he's performing well in Appleton in this small sample. Wonder if he goes to the AFL?

Marco Dinges' stats at Low-A haven't been anything exciting in the first week or so there, but I do like the swing a lot and he's posting exit velo's of 110 MPH on opposite field hits. IF he can catch (that's a very big if) I think he could really move up lists. It may be harder to do as a non-catcher though. I'm also not betting against a guy who went through what he went through a couple years ago.

[biedergb]

I will go with a few names.

Carolina - Reece Walling, 20 yo UDFA out of HS, has power potential, but still struggling to find consistency; any of the ACL pitchers who were promoted (Cortez, D. Sanchez, Flores and Reyes). M Rodriguez has been a favorite, but is on prospect lists.

Wisconsin - Tayden Hall is a guy I like who is looking more comfortable at the plate, but zero power, which you can only dream could happen. And Hedbert Perez could come back to prospect status after a SSS stint this past month. And Cornielle has been one of my favorites despite a rough spot recently.

Biloxi - The obvious names of Shane Smith and KC Hunt who are starting to garner attention on lists. Russell Smith and Nick Merkel have been heroic in the 'pen and are still RP prospects, and Yeager too. No hitters to speak of (outside the big names), but will concede EMJ is an interesting player, but likely to be gone next year as more 1B types (Boeve, Bitonti, Burke and T. Hall)

Nashville - Collins and Hicklen; and pitching Chad Patrick.

[sveumrules]

I'm not sure any of these guys are under rated so much as under the radar, but a couple complex level bats with decent results that kind of get lost in the shuffle (not even including Juan Ortuno and his 159 wRC+)...

Roderick Flores put up a 245/441/349 (132 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts in his second go around on the island at age 17 and a combined 23 SB / 5 CS in his two DSL summers. Played mostly 3B / RF / 2B in 2024.

Tyler Rodriguez turned in a 277/455/361 (130 wRC+) as an 18 year old in his first season stateside. Also more walks than strikeouts and 18 SB / 5 CS in his two seasons. Played mostly SS / LF / 2B in 2024.

A little higher up the ladder no prospect better demonstrates the increased depth in the system for me than Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder. Made the Top 20 in the lean years on the strength of promising bat to ball skills (with some speed and defense sprinkled in) at the lower levels, now is demonstrating those skills to the tune of 297/378/398 (129 wRC+) combined at AA/AAA again with more walks than strikeouts. Still only 23, looks like a pretty safe bet to be at least a 4th OF at some point.

#13 overall pick in 2018 Connor Scott has had a resurgent 126 PAs as a Shucker with his 259/333/455 (133 wRC+) line representing the best production of his minor league career.

On the pitching side a guy like 20yo RHP Jesus Broca has had a pretty rapid ascent going from the DSL to Carolina in one summer with 31 K vs 8 BB in his 23.1 combined IP amounting to a 2.52 FIP which is 7th in the system among pitchers with at least 20 IP.

Believe there were some rare DSL clips of 19yo LHP Wande Torres posted recently by Brewers PD account and he put up 15.2 IP of 1.49 FIP | 1.72 ERA on the island. 18yo RHP Wenderlyn King had an impressive DSL debut with 37.2 IP of 3.07 FIP | 3.35 ERA work.

Recent Indy League signing Tyler Bryant has been a fun box follow since joining the organization with 5 saves, a nice 1.69 ERA and 30 K through is first 21.1 professional IP.

Obviously old for the Southern League but Sam Gardner just keeps getting outs and racking zeroes with 37 IP of 1.87 FIP | 2.19 ERA on the season.

Dikember Sanchez has shoved in his first season stateside with 48.1 IP between the complex and Carolina totaling a 3.63 FIP | 2.23 ERA and 57 K vs 17 BB. 

 

[Spencer Michaelis]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

I'm not sure any of these guys are under rated so much as under the radar, but a couple complex level bats with decent results that kind of get lost in the shuffle (not even including Juan Ortuno and his 159 wRC+)...

Roderick Flores put up a 245/441/349 (132 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts in his second go around on the island at age 17 and a combined 23 SB / 5 CS in his two DSL summers. Played mostly 3B / RF / 2B in 2024.

Tyler Rodriguez turned in a 277/455/361 (130 wRC+) as an 18 year old in his first season stateside. Also more walks than strikeouts and 18 SB / 5 CS in his two seasons. Played mostly SS / LF / 2B in 2024.

A little higher up the ladder no prospect better demonstrates the increased depth in the system for me than Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder. Made the Top 20 in the lean years on the strength of promising bat to ball skills (with some speed and defense sprinkled in) at the lower levels, now is demonstrating those skills to the tune of 297/378/398 (129 wRC+) combined at AA/AAA again with more walks than strikeouts. Still only 23, looks like a pretty safe bet to be at least a 4th OF at some point.

#13 overall pick in 2018 Connor Scott has had a resurgent 126 PAs as a Shucker with his 259/333/455 (133 wRC+) line representing the best production of his minor league career.

On the pitching side a guy like 20yo RHP Jesus Broca has had a pretty rapid ascent going from the DSL to Carolina in one summer with 31 K vs 8 BB in his 23.1 combined IP amounting to a 2.52 FIP which is 7th in the system among pitchers with at least 20 IP.

Believe there were some rare DSL clips of 19yo LHP Wande Torres posted recently by Brewers PD account and he put up 15.2 IP of 1.49 FIP | 1.72 ERA on the island. 18yo RHP Wenderlyn King had an impressive DSL debut with 37.2 IP of 3.07 FIP | 3.35 ERA work.

Recent Indy League signing Tyler Bryant has been a fun box follow since joining the organization with 5 saves, a nice 1.69 ERA and 30 K through is first 21.1 professional IP.

Obviously old for the Southern League but Sam Gardner just keeps getting outs and racking zeroes with 37 IP of 1.87 FIP | 2.19 ERA on the season.

Dikember Sanchez has shoved in his first season stateside with 48.1 IP between the complex and Carolina totaling a 3.63 FIP | 2.23 ERA and 57 K vs 17 BB. 

 

Love this list. I will add some notes I have/know for some of these guys. 

Tyler Rodriguez's swing jumped out in video I saw this offseason. I'm far from a swing expert, but it checks all the visual boxes for me. Seeing the production back it up is nice, especially at 18 years old.

C-Rod and Scott are both definitely interesting. Both are MiLB FA's this offseason. Guessing C-Rod moves on if he isn't added to the 40 man, but Scott might re-sign on another minor league deal.

Jesus Broca (he's actually a LHP) is around 91-93 with a curve and changeup. Results in Carolina aren't good so far, including an 18% whiff rate, but the overall K:BB is super encouraging and the stuff is pretty solid for a 20 year old lefty.

Wande Torres has been up to 98 MPH and sits in the 95-97 range with a delivery that reminds me a bit of Jared Koenig and Angel Perdomo, and a nice looking slider/slurve. Seems like a tough AB for hitters, and limited walks really well this year compared to last time we saw him in 2022. King is more low 90's with a slider/changeup combo.

Tyler Bryant is racking up K's and also whiffs. Whiff rate is a very impressive 41.9% since signing, though it was 46.5% in Low-A and is 36.5% in High-A (still very good, just not the same level).

Gardner has some Shane Smith qualities to the fastball and breaking ball mix, though Smith has a bit more velo in the tank. Gardner is usually in the 92-93 range, reaching back for a 94 once in a while.

Sanchez's cutter looks gorgeous and throwing it around 93 MPH already is pretty impressive for a pure cutter at 20 years old. The breaking balls are solid too. Whiff rate of 31% and a 63% ground ball rate is a nice combo.

[sveumrules]

24 minutes ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

Love this list. I will add some notes I have/know for some of these guys. 

Tyler Rodriguez's swing jumped out in video I saw this offseason. I'm far from a swing expert, but it checks all the visual boxes for me. Seeing the production back it up is nice, especially at 18 years old.

C-Rod and Scott are both definitely interesting. Both are MiLB FA's this offseason. Guessing C-Rod moves on if he isn't added to the 40 man, but Scott might re-sign on another minor league deal.

Jesus Broca (he's actually a LHP) is around 91-93 with a curve and changeup. Results in Carolina aren't good so far, including an 18% whiff rate, but the overall K:BB is super encouraging and the stuff is pretty solid for a 20 year old lefty.

Wande Torres has been up to 98 MPH and sits in the 95-97 range with a delivery that reminds me a bit of Jared Koenig and Angel Perdomo, and a nice looking slider/slurve. Seems like a tough AB for hitters, and limited walks really well this year compared to last time we saw him in 2022. King is more low 90's with a slider/changeup combo.

Tyler Bryant is racking up K's and also whiffs. Whiff rate is a very impressive 41.9% since signing, though it was 46.5% in Low-A and is 36.5% in High-A (still very good, just not the same level).

Gardner has some Shane Smith qualities to the fastball and breaking ball mix, though Smith has a bit more velo in the tank. Gardner is usually in the 92-93 range, reaching back for a 94 once in a while.

Sanchez's cutter looks gorgeous and throwing it around 93 MPH already is pretty impressive for a pure cutter at 20 years old. The breaking balls are solid too. Whiff rate of 31% and a 63% ground ball rate is a nice combo.

Wow, thanks for the all the additional context, Spencer. Much appreciated.

[biedergb]

I forgot about Wande Torres - isn't that another of @Joseph Zarr's guys.

And so is Tyler Bryant too. That beard and glasses is very old school.

And the other Tyler - Rodriguez. I think it will be interesting to see how his hit tool will be next year at Carolina - his fielding seems to be an issue based upon Error numbers, but without a video feed at the complex it was hard to know. Maybe a new Baez?

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think most of mine have been covered already. There are of course a ton of DSLers who posted interesting metrics beyond the “big 4,” but they are more breakout candidates than under-rated at this point.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I'd add a couple of AAers: Russell Smith who has resurrected his career as a reliever.  Kaleb Bowman is 27 but has been fantastic in relief.  He's repeating AA but was an indy sign and has low miles on his arm.

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I was recently looking at Fangraphs top minor league power rankings.  The 17th top player listed is Jadher Areinamo, one spot ahead of Jackson's younger brother Jaison. I dont know much about these power rankings and how they are calculated but still, this feels like I am severely under-rating Jadher.  I had him 26 in the last update, but maybe he should be much higher.  Still feels like a utility infielder to me with the upside of a starting average 2b.  Doesn't scream top prospect to me, but I'd love to hear thoughts of others.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/minor-league-power-rankings

FYI - KC Hunt is 71 (2nd higher Brewer minor leaguer)

[Spencer Michaelis]

11 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I was recently looking at Fangraphs top minor league power rankings.  The 17th top player listed is Jadher Areinamo, one spot ahead of Jackson's younger brother Jaison. I dont know much about these power rankings and how they are calculated but still, this feels like I am severely under-rating Jadher.  I had him 26 in the last update, but maybe he should be much higher.  Still feels like a utility infielder to me with the upside of a starting average 2b.  Doesn't scream top prospect to me, but I'd love to hear thoughts of others.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/minor-league-power-rankings

FYI - KC Hunt is 71 (2nd higher Brewer minor leaguer)

It's really hard for me to move Jadher too much higher than the low-mid 20's on my rankings. I will say, the Fangraphs defense grade of 40 is pretty crazy to me. I think he's comfortably above average. His load scares me, as I think it could be taken advantage of, due to all the moving parts. But I also feel hypocritical saying that, as I didn't want them to mess with EBJ's load when he got drafted. It's been very nice to see the power show up a bit more this year, without losing the bat to ball abilities. 

I think of all the guys in the system, he's got the best chance to just completely prove me wrong. I think if I see the performance translate to AA I'll be able to move him up and feel comfortable with it.

[Playing Catch]

14 minutes ago, Spencer Michaelis said:

His load scares me, as I think it could be taken advantage of, due to all the moving parts. But I also feel hypocritical saying that, as I didn't want them to mess with EBJ's load when he got drafted.

I have appreciated their method of allowing guys to hit how they've always hit. However, there are a number of goofy looking swings that I just don't see in MLB. Tyler Black, EBJ, Luke Adams, Jadher, Ernesto Martinez, and probably some others have swings that look weird. EBJ's went from unorthodox, to pure lunacy. What on earth possessed him to make his swing even weirder??

Again, I just don't see very many (any??) strange swings in the big leagues.