AZ Fall League - Rosters, Schedule, Streaming, etc.

[biedergb]

Encouraging to see that Coleman Crow is pitching in competitive ball, and hopes that he can become in the mix for upper level pitching prospects next season now that he seems fully healthy.

[Jim Goulart]

9 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

The Javelinas are now 0-2 versus the Glendale Desert Dogs. They've been outscored 28-19 after losing 13-6 tonight. RHP Cameron Crow has officially pitched his first innings as a Brewers hurler - 1 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER. 3B Brock Wilken followed up his 'Brocket' with a vintage 2024 Wilken performance - 0-for-5 with 3 K <sad face>. CF Luis Lara also went a hitless in an 0-for-4, 1 K, and 1 GIDP evening. 2B Juan Baez filled it up <yay!> going 3-for-4 with 1 R, 1 RBI, and 1 2B. This game was close in the hits department with Glendale edging the Javelinas 13-to-11 but it would certainly seem the score indicates the deeper storyline of dominance: Glendale went 5-for-19 with RISP whereas Peoria was a mere 2-for-5. 

Peoria (1-2) will be back on the diamond tomorrow night versus the Mesa Solar Sox (2-1). They will once again play at 8:30 CST.

Thursday's Box 

You'll find Friday's evening box score here, and once again, this game will be streamed.

Thursday's game has yet to archive, but should you be researching game action (we wait to see how did Coleman Crow look) the video archive page is here.

[Joseph Zarr]

2B 'El Juan' Baez has officially entered the early AFL chat! Whewwww baby. After a 3-for-4 evening just last night, he follows up with another 3-for-4 in the sixth spot in the Javelinas line-up - 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 R, 2 RBI. Yowza! 

The Javelinas moved to 2-2 with a 9-6 victory over the Solar Sox.

3B Brock Wilken batted fifth and went 1-for-4 with 1 K. CF Luis Lara batted ninth and went 1-for-4 with 1 K while also being demerited a PO and CS during his lone opportunity on base. RHP Will Childers was called upon late after the Padres' RHP Luis German had given up four runs in the ninth frame. With a man on first base, holding a 9-6 lead, Childers shut 'er down with a three pitch swinging K (at least according to tonight's Gamecast - we certainly know these aren't always accurate down yonder). 

[Austin Tatious]

@Joseph Zarr what would you say is the level of play?  About equivalent to AA?

[wiguy94]

39 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

@Joseph Zarr what would you say is the level of play?  About equivalent to AA?

It really depends on the day/team. You have players ranging from A to young MLB players. I'd say AA on average is probably about right.

[Ro Mueller]

 

[sveumrules]

36 minutes ago, Ro Mueller said:

 

The finish on his swing in that clip gave me some Jean Segura flashbacks.

Pretty similar offensive profiles - low walk, low K, high average, some pop relative to stature.

[Joseph Zarr]

The bat to ball hand-eye and aggression has always been top shelf for Baez. The mistakes on the base paths, the unknown projection to gap power as he evolves, and the defensive questions emanating from his official tallies in the ACL were always the question marks. Having watched him for two seasons now, I have stated on numerous occasions: the defense is vastly undersold and his hands appear pure with a more than respectable arm. He is obviously going to be playing more 2B than he is used to in full-season ball with Wilken as his AFL stablemate. A two-game sample size is relatively meaningless but I am simply impressed (tho, I should have anticipated this with his general competitive make-up) he is showing out early. He remains a very very underrated player even after this 6-for-8 mini burst. He certainly isn't anywhere as gifted as Areinamo with the glove (few are, let's be honest) but those two as a pairing offer many pesky problems for opponents.

[Jim Goulart]

19 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

RHP Will Childers was called upon late after the Padres' RHP Luis German had given up four runs in the ninth frame. With a man on first base, holding a 9-6 lead, Childers shut 'er down with a three pitch swinging K (at least according to tonight's Gamecast - we certainly know these aren't always accurate down yonder). 

Watched it as it happened, and it indeed was three consecutive swinging strikes, all on breaking balls down, away and out of the zone. It was sweet!

[biedergb]

19 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

He remains a very very underrated player even after this 6-for-8 mini burst. He certainly isn't anywhere as gifted as Areinamo with the glove (few are, let's be honest) but those two as a pairing offer many pesky problems for opponents.

The thing I keep going back to is that Baez is only 6 months older than Yophery. Yophery has such an exciting tool set including defense, and played one less year of affiliated ball in the minors (2023 signing vs Baez as a 2022 signing), but really very close in age, and Baez at the plate appears way more comfortable and mature with swing decisions.  The fact that he even has a nice sample size and is participating in the AFL at that age is certainly not common I would imagine.  
‘His defense and his base running ….  Yeah let’s skip over that

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, biedergb said:

Baez at the plate appears way more comfortable and mature with swing decisions

There is no decision, Baez just swings. With his ridiculous contact ability it’s certainly been a suitable approach at the lower levels, but the big question will be if he can maintain that at the upper levels or will it lead to increased weak contact as he faces more advanced pitching that can utilize his aggression against him.

That Yophery showed some patience and walked at a 12.2% clip gives me some hope that his approach is more sustainable long term even if it comes with a lot more swing and miss.

[biedergb]

56 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

There is no decision, Baez just swings. With his ridiculous contact ability

Ok. Fair enough. I guess when he swings his contact makes him look better. When Yophery guesses he can look bad. But he did improve immensely.

But as a hitter Baez has looked good, and is still incredibly young. His running and defense have a lot of improvement to go - a lot.  But if he can maintain his contact ability and learn as he goes up the chain he can be a valuable hitter. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Peoria played again last night, Saturday October 12th. They continued their win one, lose one start to their season falling 4-1 to Mesa.

No Baez or Lara. Wilken played 3B yet again and batted clean-up: 0-for-4. RHP Ryan Birchard got the start and went three scoreless frames - 3.0 IP, 1 H, and 3 K. The familiar walk pattern remains concerning in his early professional work despite the scoreless effort.The 23 strikes in 46 total pitches speaks to his ongoing location struggles. RHP Nick Merkel followed Birchard with two frames of scoreless work himself - 1 H, 1 BB, and 3 K. All in all successful first stints for Merkel and Birchard. Let's hope Birchard's walk rate can steadily improve as he gains more confidence in and around the zone.

The Javelinas fell to 2-3. They will face Glendale on Monday the 14th - they have the day off from competitive games today.

[Joseph Zarr]

11 minutes ago, biedergb said:

Ok. Fair enough. I guess when he swings his contact makes him look better. When Yophery guesses he can look bad. But he did improve immensely.

But as a hitter Baez has looked good, and is still incredibly young. His running and defense have a lot of improvement to go - a lot.  But if he can maintain his contact ability and learn as he goes up the chain he can be a valuable hitter. 

His defense is fine. Already a better defender than Black (I know, saying a ton). He has good hands and a good arm. He's a bit stockier so he isn't going to wow with lateral movement. He made several impressive charging plays and plays beyond that 3B foul line showing off a more than adequate arm. Has the occasional lapse as any young player does but his defense as a whole is 10x better than what the original ACL stats would lend us to believe. Is it Gold Glove? No. Is it acceptable and playable? Absolutely.

The base running is a quagmire. It's like a direct extension of his free swinging tendencies. But, he doesn't have the speed or jump to match his overzealousness. He is going to have to mature and evolve both the plate approach and most definitely the careless outs on the base paths if he wants to become a more serious prospect in higher levels of full season ball.

[sveumrules]

The first guy that comes to mind for me when I think hit tool only is Donovan Solano.

Since 2019 he has 1,838 PAs with an 80 BB+ | 89 K+ | 119 AVG+ | 71 ISO+ which shakes out to a 112 wRC+.

His -8.5 BsR is even somewhat reminiscent of Baez too.

Going back to Jean Segura upthread, from 2016-22 he put up 3,681 PAs of 69 BB+ | 63 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 109 wRC+.

Less walks and strikeouts, a little more power than Solano, so why did he get double the PAs? Defense (he was a capable SS/plus 2B) and base running (+14.1 BsR) of course.

The pie in the sky it’s fun to dream is Baez discovers a power stroke and some modicum of selectivity en route to going all Jose Ramirez on the league.

Absent that, I think one can squint and see an outcome where Juan ends up as something of a Segura-lite since he’ll never be SS capable and is unlikely to be a big positive on the bases.

Even if he just ended up as a more defensively capable version of Solano that would still be a pretty big win all things considered.

[biedergb]

2 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

His defense is fine

I trust you @Joseph Zarr

I think you saw more of the Mudcats. The games I watched his footwork, throws and mental side were less than ideal, but watching a lot of Shuckers and T-Rats I did have a high bar with Areinamo, EBJ and even Pratt. Adams and Wilken have some defensive prowess in them for big guys.

probably selection/recall bias as I remember Baez’s blunders the games I watched where he played.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, biedergb said:

I trust you @Joseph Zarr

I think you saw more of the Mudcats. The games I watched his footwork, throws and mental side were less than ideal, but watching a lot of Shuckers and T-Rats I did have a high bar with Areinamo, EBJ and even Pratt. Adams and Wilken have some defensive prowess in them for big guys.

probably selection/recall bias as I remember Baez’s blunders the games I watched where he played.

Well, unfortunately, his worst defensive game - both in luck but also in execution - came in the make-or-break playoffs versus the Nats. He got eaten up by several 50/50 balls. It was once of those odd karmic moments where the ball kept finding him and the plays just kept eating him up. Slow dribblers. Weird short hops etc. Outside of literally that game alone, he was more than adequate at the hot corner. Areinamo is also fairly aggressive in the batters box rarely taking walks. However, Areinamo already has gap power and a building power stroke. He is also extremely heady in nearly every aspect of the game. Baez, from what I can tell at present, is very aggressive and has innate bat-to-ball skills but he lacks any refined approach to his game. Hopefully, with more exposure and experience in the AFL he can carry that into a more matured and seasoned approach when he likely starts at High-A Wisconsin next season.

[sveumrules]

20 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The pie in the sky it’s fun to dream is Baez discovers a power stroke and some modicum of selectivity en route to going all Jose Ramirez on the league.

Jose Ramirez thru age 19
534 PAs | 6.0 BB% | 8.1 K% | .116 ISO
Juan Baez thru age 19
838 PAs | 6.7 BB% | 10.9 K% | .116 ISO

Pretty crazy how close they are right down to matching isolated sluggings and everything. Baez's K% is a few points higher, but the average K rate in the 2024 Carolina League was 25.3% compared to 19.5% in the 2012 Midwest League when Ramirez was a 19 year old in A ball so that is mostly contextual.

Ramirez even went 29 SB | 13 CS (69.0%) thru age 19, a tick worse than Baez at 47 SB | 19 CS (71.2%) so far. And Jose has turned himself into one of the best base runners in the league with his +40.3 BSR since 2016 third highest in all of MLB behind only Trea Turner (+58.9) and Billy Hamilton (+44.3), just ahead of guys like Yelich (+37.5) and Mookie (+34.2).

The big difference is that Ramirez had the platoon advantage every at bat and put up a .366 BABIP on all those balls in play resulting in a 342/383/459 (131 wRC+) line whereas Baez has only run a .321 BABIP for a 295/347/411 (107 wRC+) triple slash thus far.

Obviously comparing any 19 year old to a future HOFer who is one of the greatest player development stories of all time is pure unadulterated folly, but some of the same ingredients are definitely there and it's October so here we are.

[Joseph Zarr]

The Javelinas lose once again to the Glendale Desert Dogs. They are now 0-3 versus Glendale. A 5-3 loss tonight. No Brewers took the mound. All three field players saw action.

3B Brock Wilken once again was given clean-up duties. Once again, he went hitless. 0-for-3, 2 BB, 2 K. 2B Juan Baez, batting seventh, went 1-for-3 with 2 R, 1 BB, and 1 K. CF Luis Lara returned to the outfield grass batting ninth and going 1-for-4 with 1 RBI. 

Peoria falls to 2-4. They will face Glendale once again tomorrow in the afternoon (3:30 CST).

[jay87shot]

Yeesh, Wilken come on man. I think I had Wilken like 12th and Baez like 24th in my prospect rankings. I kind of am thinking I should have switched them.

[Joseph Zarr]

10 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Yeesh, Wilken come on man. I think I had Wilken like 12th and Baez like 24th in my prospect rankings. I kind of am thinking I should have switched them.

Wilken has been scuffling mightily since the calendar flipped to August. Go ahead and look at the cumulative totals: ugly stuff. Now he did just become a dad for the first time. Maybe that's something. Maybe that's nothing. Maybe he is just in an epic slump. Maybe he isn't as good as we think he can be and we want him to be. Much too early to tell. But, what we can say is his production is extremely spotty at present. Let's hope that changes.

[Ro Mueller]

 

[Joseph Zarr]

LHP Mark Manfredi had an outing to forget as the Javelinas continued their losing ways vs Glendale:

1.0 IP, 5 H, 7 R (5 ER), 1 BB, 1 HB, 1 K, 2 HR

With Baez getting the day off, Luis Lara was manning the RF grass batting 7th - 2-for-5, 1 R, 1 K. The HR shown above was Wilken's sole poke in a 1-for-4, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR afternoon. He also was charged with a fielding error at the hot corner. Peoria loses 19-9 to Glendale falling to 2-5 on the young season.

The Javelinas will try to find some winning production as they return tomorrow evening to face the Mesa Solar Sox at 8:30 CST.

[nate82]

22 hours ago, Ro Mueller said:

 

Absolute bomb on that one.  

[Joseph Zarr]

17 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Absolute bomb on that one.  

Power has never been Wilken's weakness. Consistent contact (of any kind) is very much his kryptonite. He struggled mightily all season in Biloxi with swing decisions, timing, contact, and success with the lumber. His 2024 28% K rate with a 0.200 BA and a 0.679 OPS speaks to this. In the early AFL he has 9 K in 28 PA's with a 0.650 OPS. In other words: picking up where he left off. I opined at the end of the season a reset and spending time with his newborn was likely more beneficial than an AFL assignment. It's obviously very very early. BUT...there is a very poignant and purposeful 'BUT' here. I very very much wish him success. I have very very much watched the majority of his most recent season. I had given him the benefit of the doubt for months with the HBP in the face and a newborn in his life. Still reasonable 'excuses' for a mulligan of sorts in 2024. Wilken is also facing these things as a 22-year-old until next June. Lot of runway left. However, when you have the pedigree and the hype he brings with it? At some point in time, we'll absolutely need to see better results. It is what it is. This is a results business.