Big Picture...

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

If the Brewers spend $160 million on sub-.800 OPS "grit" and "intangibles," I'll lose the last bit of hope I have left.

To be honest, if he wasn’t a Brewers player going into FA I’m pretty sure no one would want to touch him with a 20 foot pole. Prone to low-OBP and likes to strikeout 25% of the time. Likes to hit homers, but defense probably not a strong suit long term. Pre-Stearns era this was the kind of player we were all begging to get away from putting on the roster.

Now Doug Melvin? Would be all over Adames.

[Devinep]

On 10/10/2024 at 10:13 PM, LouisEly said:

28-year-olds have their best games behind them?

Sometimes, especially if their defense is already slipping. I’d like to see Adames stay, but for how much $ he will get for probably 5+ years, it just isn’t the best allocation of resources. And considering the low supply of quality FA SS and some deep-pocketed teams like ATL, SF, maybe LA and DET making at least some sense for him, his market won’t fall down to reasonable levels for MKE

[StearnsFTW]

Does Willy get to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons?

My money would be on "not".

I'm guessing his contract will be worth somewhere around or above 5/120 so that's what you're banking on as the signing team.

 

There's almost no chance we're signing him which I am in favor of.

[Redd Vencher]

42 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Does Willy get to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons?

My money would be on "not".

I'm guessing his contract will be worth somewhere around or above 5/120 so that's what you're banking on as the signing team.

 

There's almost no chance we're signing him which I am in favor of.

I think it's a pretty safe bet he gets to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons. He posted a 12.5 fWAR (10.4 bWAR) over the last 3 seasons. A couple more average seasons like the last 3 and not a huge fall off after would get it done easily. (I wanted an 8 year $144 M extension for Adames 2 years ago) His contract is going to be 6-7 years on the FA market not 5. If the Brewers are giving out a $100+ M contract this offseason, I'd prefer it go to Contreras instead of Adames because you can get a sub $20 M per year for the FA years with Contreras compared to the $25+ M per year an Adames deal would cost. 10 year $155 M for Contreras would be what I would target. (6, 10, 15, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, and 5 buyout on 17)

[StearnsFTW]

58 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

I think it's a pretty safe bet he gets to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons. He posted a 12.5 fWAR (10.4 bWAR) over the last 3 seasons. A couple more average seasons like the last 3 and not a huge fall off after would get it done easily. (I wanted an 8 year $144 M extension for Adames 2 years ago) His contract is going to be 6-7 years on the FA market not 5. If the Brewers are giving out a $100+ M contract this offseason, I'd prefer it go to Contreras instead of Adames because you can get a sub $20 M per year for the FA years with Contreras compared to the $25+ M per year an Adames deal would cost. 10 year $155 M for Contreras would be what I would target. (6, 10, 15, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, and 5 buyout on 17)

Anything longer than 5 will be terrible.  I realize teams might give that 6th year to get him to sign but it'll be a mistake.

 

I'd also be willing to bet he doesn't get to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons.

[Redd Vencher]

8 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Anything longer than 5 will be terrible.  I realize teams might give that 6th year to get him to sign but it'll be a mistake.

 

I'd also be willing to bet he doesn't get to 12 WAR over the next 5 seasons.

His deal is going to fall between Swanson's 7 year $177 M and Correa's 6 $200 M. He's the 2nd or 3rd best and 4th youngest position player on the market.

[sveumrules]

Since 2021...

Adames (2,498 PAs)
242/319/452 (110 wRC+)
10.0 BB% | 26.4 K%
+36.3 DEF | 15.6 WAR

Chapman (2,471 PAs)
232/324/431 (112 wRC+)
11.1 BB% | 28.1 K%
+35.1 DEF | 16.0 WAR

No two players are exactly alike, but dang if that ain't some serious Finkle is Einhorn type stuff going on there. The Giants just extended Chapman at 6/151 before he could opt out and test free agency. Adames is two years younger and will be on the open market.

[Redd Vencher]

48 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Since 2021...

Adames (2,498 PAs)
242/319/452 (110 wRC+)
10.0 BB% | 26.4 K%
+36.3 DEF | 15.6 WAR

Chapman (2,471 PAs)
232/324/431 (112 wRC+)
11.1 BB% | 28.1 K%
+35.1 DEF | 16.0 WAR

No two players are exactly alike, but dang if that ain't some serious Finkle is Einhorn type stuff going on there. The Giants just extended Chapman at 6/151 before he could opt out and test free agency. Adames is two years younger and will be on the open market.

By season age, it's 3 years. 2025 will be Chapman's age 32 season while it will be Adames age 29 season.

[StearnsFTW]

11 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

His deal is going to fall between Swanson's 7 year $177 M and Correa's 6 $200 M. He's the 2nd or 3rd best and 4th youngest position player on the market.

I agree that that will be the area of the deal.  And it will age like milk on a hot day.

[CheezWizHed]

18 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

i’’ve attached a baseball prospectus article that refers to peak age of ball players.

   https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/9933/how-do-baseball-players-age-investigating-the-age-27-theory/

Would be interesting to see how that compares with WAR.

So at age 29,  Willy will play his "peak" age season this year.  At ages 24-26 were his best years (126, 121, 110 OPS+; 1.9, 4.2, 4.0 WAR).  Obviously age 24 was limited ABs reducing his WAR and age 26 was heavier on defense). The last two years have been decent, but lower: 94, 118 OPS+, 3.0, 3.1 WAR.  

So do we really think he can get back to being a 4.0 WAR player? Or 120+ OPS+? 

This started with the comment of "his best days are behind him". I would say that is still true.  Maybe he hits 3 WAR again and probably 2+ WAR regularly.  But I can't see another 4 WAR season coming from him.

[wildcat2237]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Would be interesting to see how that compares with WAR.

So at age 29,  Willy will play his "peak" age season this year.  At ages 24-26 were his best years (126, 121, 110 OPS+; 1.9, 4.2, 4.0 WAR).  Obviously age 24 was limited ABs reducing his WAR and age 26 was heavier on defense). The last two years have been decent, but lower: 94, 118 OPS+, 3.0, 3.1 WAR.  

So do we really think he can get back to being a 4.0 WAR player? Or 120+ OPS+? 

This started with the comment of "his best days are behind him". I would say that is still true.  Maybe he hits 3 WAR again and probably 2+ WAR regularly.  But I can't see another 4 WAR season coming from him.

Excellent post. This is all spot on. 

There is no way the Brewers should even consider engaging Adames. 

Frankly, if the Brewers intend to complete I dont think I would want to be locked in with Adames for more than 2 more years. Obviously, his deal is going to be much longer than 2 years. 

[Redd Vencher]

3 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Would be interesting to see how that compares with WAR.

So at age 29,  Willy will play his "peak" age season this year.  At ages 24-26 were his best years (126, 121, 110 OPS+; 1.9, 4.2, 4.0 WAR).  Obviously age 24 was limited ABs reducing his WAR and age 26 was heavier on defense). The last two years have been decent, but lower: 94, 118 OPS+, 3.0, 3.1 WAR.  

So do we really think he can get back to being a 4.0 WAR player? Or 120+ OPS+? 

This started with the comment of "his best days are behind him". I would say that is still true.  Maybe he hits 3 WAR again and probably 2+ WAR regularly.  But I can't see another 4 WAR season coming from him.

He posted a career best 4.7 fWAR this year. It comes down to the what defensive metric you view as reliable in 1 year sample. DRS hated his defense this year while OAA had him as league average.

[CheezWizHed]

16 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

He posted a career best 4.7 fWAR this year. It comes down to the what defensive metric you view as reliable in 1 year sample. DRS hated his defense this year while OAA had him as league average.

I was obviously using bWAR.

[Redd Vencher]

3 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I was obviously using bWAR.

I know, but ignoring what is behind the difference is important when discussing future 4 WAR seasons. If we want to dig in under the hood on the offensive side, he's coming off his 2 best seasons of his career.

 

Year wRC+ OPS+ BABIP BB% K% wOBA xWOBA

'20   126     126    .388    9.8    36.1 .347   .307

'21    120     121     .331     10.3   28.1 .349  .325

'22   109    110      .278    7.9     26.9  .325  .323

'23   94      94      .259    11.1     25.9   .311   .335

'24   119     118      .297    10.8    25.1   .342  .344

 

Defensive metrics can be fickle from season to season, which is why they say you need 3 years of data before they stabilize.

[LouisEly]

There's no way to quantify it, but I'd be willing to bet that his clubhouse presence and intangibles are worth at least two team wins per season. 

There's a reason the Brewers have been overachieving and I think he's a big reason behind it.  Team chemistry matters.  A lot.

[StearnsFTW]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

There's no way to quantify it, but I'd be willing to bet that his clubhouse presence and intangibles are worth at least two team wins per season. 

There's a reason the Brewers have been overachieving and I think he's a big reason behind it.  Team chemistry matters.  A lot.

This is my only fear with losing him.  He is definitely a leader and clearly a big influence on Chourio.

[wallus]

Woodruff and Hoskins are great in the clubhouse too. I think we will see more leadership from the young guys in 2025

[rickh150]

On 10/14/2024 at 5:26 PM, MrTPlush said:

To be honest, if he wasn’t a Brewers player going into FA I’m pretty sure no one would want to touch him with a 20 foot pole. Prone to low-OBP and likes to strikeout 25% of the time. Likes to hit homers, but defense probably not a strong suit long term. Pre-Stearns era this was the kind of player we were all begging to get away from putting on the roster.

Now Doug Melvin? Would be all over Adames.

Doubt it... he had limits too, and for good reason.  Pretty unfair.  And by the way, Doug Melvin won same amount of playoff series as Stearns (and Dalton).  And Melvin would have had more bites of the apple with the added wild card spots.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Doubt it... he had limits too, and for good reason.  Pretty unfair.  And by the way, Doug Melvin won same amount of playoff series as Stearns (and Dalton).  And Melvin would have had more bites of the apple with the added wild card spots.

Only 1 more playoff appearance in 2014 with the current playoff rules assuming same records. Brewers would have made it in 2017 with the current format in addition to the other 4 times Stearns made it.