Big Picture...

[Jopal78]

29 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I think people are in denial about the luck/circumstance stuff. That has always been a factor in baseball more than other sports, but the structure is such that a playoff series, whether a best of 3, 5 or 7, is not regular season baseball. The Brewers can go 26 deep on the margins of WAR and have mastered that, but when you don't have to pick up wins over 162 games and you just have to win 3 times, talent of your best 10 or 11 is what counts. They might be able to beat 1 team, I don't see them being able to beat 3 or 4. 

They are losing these series because the opponents have more talented teams built to win head-to-head against the best. Can you look at any of these recent losses and say the Brewers had a better lineup than any of them?

That’s so hard to quantify. For example, the Brewers have better outfielders and catchers than the Mets, but the Mets infield is better than Milwaukee’s.

The real difference between the two is the Brewers don’t have two hitters like Lindor and Alonso, mainly because they are never going to commit the 55+ million dollars it would cost for 2 veteran hitters of that quality when they run total payrolls of $120 million dollars or less. 

[jay87shot]

I think the big picture is that we need to decide who is the long term core of this team with Chourio and try and lock them up cheaply and then have young guys ready when we move on from the guys we can afford. For example Contreras is going to be to expensive long term, the writing is on the wall that by the 2026/27 offseason we will need to trade him. With Quero in the wings we can trade Contreras after this year if Quero looks good and maximize value (filling in potential organizational holes) or wait and in 2 offseason get good value and hopefully have Quero with some vital big league experience backing Contreras up for a year. We are pretty set long term except for 1B/3B  but have 4 good prospects in which at least 2 should seperate themselves by next year.

Pitching we have Gasser, Myers maybe Ashby or Hall and the group of Henderson, Misi, CarRod, Patrick with Smith, Wichrowski, Kuehner, Hunt, and others who can probably comprise a solid group of starters for a while. However Ashby and Misi probably are the only guys with top of the rotation stuff so it would be nice to try and find an ace somewhere somehow. With how good Arnold and company have been at finding gem relievers I don't worry to much about that unless a big organization gets smart and hire a bunch of our pitching coaches away.

I think the general idea is to not rock the boat and work at keeping the positive clubhouse vibe while finding high potential players without selling the farm. It stinks but we probably can't sign any superstar talent until Yeli is off his deal 

[Redd Vencher]

22 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think the big picture is that we need to decide who is the long term core of this team with Chourio and try and lock them up cheaply and then have young guys ready when we move on from the guys we can afford. For example Contreras is going to be to expensive long term, the writing is on the wall that by the 2026/27 offseason we will need to trade him. With Quero in the wings we can trade Contreras after this year if Quero looks good and maximize value (filling in potential organizational holes) or wait and in 2 offseason get good value and hopefully have Quero with some vital big league experience backing Contreras up for a year. We are pretty set long term except for 1B/3B  but have 4 good prospects in which at least 2 should seperate themselves by next year.

Given the history of Catcher extensions, Contreras hasn't priced himself out of Milwaukee yet. I wonder if people's view on an Contreras extension would be changed looking at Wilson Contreras' bat in his early 30s. Wilson's 133 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons at ages 30-32 is 3% better than William's 130 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons. Even with a move off catcher in the latter part of an extension that 130 wRC+ would be top 10 1B/DH bat.

 

Previous top catcher extensions

Mauer 8 years $181 M signed 1 year to FA

Posey 9 years $167 M signed 3 years to FA

Smith 10 years $140 M signed 2 years to FA

Murphy 6 years $73 M signed 3 years to FA

 

I don't think Contreras has done enough to warrant Mauer or Posey deal. Mauer was coming off a 170 wRC+ 8.3 fWAR season and Posey was coming off a 164 wRC+ 9.8 fWAR season when those deals were signed. Smith and Murphy are better comps in my view.

 

3 seasons before extension

Mauer 18.1 fWAR

Posey 15.4 fWAR (2011 injury that resulted in Posey rule included)

Contreras 13.1 fWAR

Smith 12.8 fWAR

Murphy 10.1 fWAR (includes shortened 2020 season, which would put him above Contreras assuming it held over 162)

 

Something like 10 years $150 M guaranteed split out like this:

25 $4 M

26 $8 M

27 $12 M

28 $15 M

29-34 $17.5 M

35 $6M buyout of $18 M option

This would cover ages 27-36 assuming the 2035 option is declined. Can even defer some amount of money in the 29-34 seasons to bring it down to $15 M per season, which would presumably be nothing for a player of his caliber at the time. If Chourio can be that 142 wRC+ hitter he was from June 1st on this year over a full season as he matures, that gives you a good 3/4 in the lineup locked in together for the the next 9 seasons. If Yelich can give you a 120 wRC+ over the next 4 seasons of his contract, that's a good core to the lineup.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

That’s so hard to quantify. For example, the Brewers have better outfielders and catchers than the Mets, but the Mets infield is better than Milwaukee’s.

The real difference between the two is the Brewers don’t have two hitters like Lindor and Alonso, mainly because they are never going to commit the 55+ million dollars it would cost for 2 veteran hitters of that quality when they run total payrolls of $120 million dollars or less. 

The Brewers have Contreras and Yelich. Combined their career OPS+ is pretty so close to Lindor and Alonso as to be negligible. The only difference is one of ours missed the post season. To be honest I think you're reaching now to justify a predetermined conclusion.

[SoCalBrewfan]

16 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Are they a well-run organization, yes, sure, yippee.

This just says to me, this person is not having a rational discussion, this person is venting and will continue to dig in heels no matter what. And, frankly, this person is kind of spoiled. Ask some Pirates or Rockies fans whether having a well-run organization that is consistently in the playoffs makes it more fun to be a fan. 

They built, against all odds, one of the best regular season teams in MLB this year. You can't win the playoffs without being in the playoffs. It's a necessary condition. It's also clearly necessary but not sufficient, because four teams go home after two or three games, and all but one team go home a loser. Are you certain that the four teams that won the wild card round are built better for the playoffs than the ones who lost? Or does stuff just happen in a very short series?

But maybe there's a mystery ingredient that makes the Brewers uniquely and systematically bad at the playoffs. Wait, I know, it's because they are representing the cursed state of Wisconsin, and the same malaise that impacted that Packers team that one year and the Bucks that one year is also impacting the 2024 Brewers.  

Quote

when you don't have to pick up wins over 162 games and you just have to win 3 times, talent of your best 10 or 11 is what counts

The law of large numbers suggests that a 162 game season is a much better test of true talent than two or three games. Inferior teams sweep series on a regular basis. If you had a million dollar prize, that depended on you beating Serena Williams in tennis, would you pick one game winner takes all or a seven game set?  (Or, to be absurd, a best of 162 series?) 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

37 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

This just says to me, this person is not having a rational discussion, this person is venting and will continue to dig in heels no matter what.

No, what it should tell you is that after a level of success, standards are raised. That is normal and how it should be. 

I would assume most of us on this site are born in the 70s or 80s. Growing up, the whole goal was to just get the Brewers to the playoffs. That was it. They lost to Philly in '08 and it was still a huge success. 

When you have been there every year since 2018 with the exception of one year in which you were 10 games over .500, I'm sorry but it is no longer a success to just get there. It's time to start winning once you're there. 

I'm sorry, but I am really getting sick and tired of the tone of this forum being that if you are dissatisfied with all this October losing, you're being a baby or a spoiled fan. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

40 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

 

The law of large numbers suggests that a 162 game season is a much better test of true talent than two or three games. Inferior teams sweep series on a regular basis. If you had a million dollar prize, that depended on you beating Serena Williams in tennis, would you pick one game winner takes all or a seven game set?  (Or, to be absurd, a best of 162 series?) 

It would say the same about an 82-game season but we have all seen how pointless that can be. With the new structure allowing 12 teams into the playoffs, it just isn't the case anymore. When you don't have to worry about fresh arms for the next 5 months or rest days for your best hitters over 30, it just isn't the same dynamic once you get to October.

Baseball had it right with the one-game playoff to be the last team in, IMO. Winning your division really meant something. Not so much anymore. This has kept more teams in the running late into September, but in reality it has just made the teams forced to play Money Ball to have a large mountain to climb in October.

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

The Brewers have Contreras and Yelich. Combined their career OPS+ is pretty so close to Lindor and Alonso as to be negligible. The only difference is one of ours missed the post season. To be honest I think you're reaching now to justify a predetermined conclusion.

My point exactly. The Brewers got beat by the Mets super-star players. Lindor worked a walk when the team needed it most, and Alonso hit the ball over the fence to de facto win the game.

Meanwhile, the Brewers superstar player was out for the year with a back injury in July, while Contreras had 2 singles in 12 trips to the plate out of the #3 hole, and went hitless in the final game. 
 

And that’s being kind still calling Yelich a superstar,  where he missed most of this year with injuries and was a disappointment the four years prior to that. 
 

 

[homer]

Given his 2nd half, I'd say Chourio was on par with Alonso and Lindor.

[Team Canada]

4 hours ago, Marc Newfield of Dreams said:

I'll believe ownership cares when they pony the hell up to build a lineup that can win 4 playoff series. As constructed the Brewers are playing with no margin for error come October. If the pitching or defense falters the bats can't pick them up. You might win a series or two before it falls apart,

It seems like people have this conception that every team takes in the same amount of revenue, and it's just the evil small market owners that refuse to put in their own money unlike the benevolent big-market billionaires.

That's not how it works.

There is fundamental structural inequity in baseball. If you're a big market and you make a ton of money - guess what, your GM has more money to spend!

So the direct response to when our ownership will "pony the hell up" is: never.

But it seems to me this sort of argument is disingenuous, or at least tautological: What lineup is able to win 4 playoff series - well the one that won 4 playoff series, of course.

That is ONE team each year. Are all the other playoff teams fatally flawed? Or just maybe is that how playoffs work? If the Dodgers fail to get to the WS, is that a fundamental flaw in their lineup (I mean, they're seriously lacking in pitching, so maybe)? Or just October randomness?
But it's no fun to ascribe to randomness when you can instead hold someone accountable for.

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

22 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

It seems like people have this conception that every team takes in the same amount of revenue, and it's just the evil small market owners that refuse to put in their own money unlike the benevolent big-market billionaires.

That's not how it works.

There is fundamental structural inequity in baseball. If you're a big market and you make a ton of money - guess what, your GM has more money to spend!

So the direct response to when our ownership will "pony the hell up" is: never.

Thanks for the explanation!

There's a big space between 110M in payroll and the NY/LAs of the world. I'm not saying I want them to spend like a big market. I was totally okay with them not throwing a ton into this year. You had no idea what you had in the young guys and especially the starting pitching. It was a wonderful surprise and a fun ride.

But now, you know these young dudes can play, The depth of pitching is really solid. You CAN compete at the top of the NL. But there are gaps looking forward. Who knows what Yelich will look like post-op. Willy's 32/112 RBI are gone. That run production is gonna have to come from somewhere. And we haven't even gotten to the bench, where you absolutely need to upgrade.

My point is if there's a time to stretch some it's now, while the young core are cheap and controllable. 

[Austin Tatious]

19 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

They are 2-10 in their last 12 playoff games, have not won a series since the 2018 NLDS. 

 You can dress it up how you want, but they are stagnating. And when the manager is patting them on the back 10 minutes after choking the season away in crushing fashion, saying how great it is that they keep making the playoffs, it's fair to wonder how much ownership really cares about getting much further. 

Are they a well-run organization, yes, sure, yippee. Will they ever be able to win 4 playoff series? I am not too optimistic.  

 

They aren’t stagnating when they’ve overhauled the roster since then.   They essentially rebuilt yet stayed competitive.  It’s borderline remarkable.  

[Thurston Fluff]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

My point exactly. The Brewers got beat by the Mets super-star players. Lindor worked a walk when the team needed it most, and Alonso hit the ball over the fence to de facto win the game.

Meanwhile, the Brewers superstar player was out for the year with a back injury in July, while Contreras had 2 singles in 12 trips to the plate out of the #3 hole, and went hitless in the final game. 
 

And that’s being kind still calling Yelich a superstar,  where he missed most of this year with injuries and was a disappointment the four years prior to that. 
 

 

They've had Alonso and Lindor for four years now and just won their first playoff series. I find your argument that is the key to playoff success unpersuasive.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I hope everyone retains this energy in 10 years if the Brewers have made the playoffs 8 more times and not escaped the first round.

[SF70]

1 minute ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I hope everyone retains this energy in 10 years if the Brewers have made the playoffs 8 more times and not escaped the first round.

Not happening.

Too good of a FO. Too good of a now rebuilt infrastructure. Too good of a young big-league core. Too good of prospect-procurement systems. Too many impactful teenage prospects stabled in our farm for when we will need them. I can keep going, but will stop there because I think you get the point I am making.

[homer]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I hope everyone retains this energy in 10 years if the Brewers have made the playoffs 8 more times and not escaped the first round.

I'd wager a sizable chunk of cash that if the Brewers were to make the playoffs 8 of the next 10 years they would make it past the first round at least once.

[Jopal78]

51 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

They've had Alonso and Lindor for four years now and just won their first playoff series. I find your argument that is the key to playoff success unpersuasive.

Then you need to read more carefully because I never said that I never said that. 
 

The difference in overall talent level between the Brewers and the Mets is not that different if at all. However, two of the very best players at their position in the NL are on their roster. Those two players are paid a ton of money based on prior performance and  it’s the two same players who ended the Brewers season. 
 

It’s an interesting thought if the team is better off having a high floor in terms of overall talent with a lower ceiling, kind of describes the 2024 brewers or is it better to have weak spots on your roster but also a couple of players amongst the very best at their position. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

8 minutes ago, homer said:

I'd wager a sizable chunk of cash that if they Brewers were to make the playoffs 8 of the next 10 years they would make it past the first round at least once.

We'll call it the 2nd round then. I don't even count it as the playoffs until the stupid 3 game thing is over. :)

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Then you need to read more carefully because I never said that I never said that. 
 

The difference in overall talent level between the Brewers and the Mets is not that different if at all. However, two of the very best players at their position in the NL are on their roster. Those two players are paid a ton of money based on prior performance and  it’s the two same players who ended the Brewers season. 
 

It’s an interesting thought if the team is better off having a high floor in terms of overall talent with a lower ceiling, kind of describes the 2024 brewers or is it better to have weak spots on your roster but also a couple of players amongst the very best at their position. 

With Jackson Chourio, I think we'll get to experience the best of both worlds. 

Also, William Contreras is statistically the best catcher in baseball right now.....

[brewfanmn]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

The difference in overall talent level between the Brewers and the Mets is not that different if at all. However, two of the very best players at their position in the NL are on their roster. Those two players are paid a ton of money based on prior performance and  it’s the two same players who ended the Brewers season. 

Well first, I just reject this premise. Lindor + Alonso combined for 9.9 fWAR this season. Contreras + Adames combined for 10.1. Add in the guy who was likely the Brewers best player come October (Chourio, 3.9 WAR) + Nimmo (2.7), and the top-end position player talent goes from “wash” to “advantage: Brewers.”

Besides, I’m not buying the argument that “star power” suddenly has an outsized importance in the postseason anyway. It’s not like Lindor gets to come to bat more frequently in October than he does in the regular season. Maybe I could buy this argument with pitching since you actually can manipulate their usage in the playoffs, but with the way guys are used these days outside of the true top-flight aces like Skubal, you could just as easily argue that the most important thing is to have an endless stable of anonymous leverage-capable relievers (which just so happened to be perhaps this Milwaukee team’s greatest strength).

Lastly, the irony is not lost on me that the Brewers were 2 outs away from the narrative being the exact opposite of what you are submitting (“dumpster dive” acquisitions Jake Bauers, Tobias Myers, Trevor Megill, and Nick Mears, and the homegrown young talent of Chourio, Frelick, and Mitchell taking down the big market Mets’ $300M payroll). And the only thing that kept that from happening was… a star reliever, one of the “very best at his position.”

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

 until the stupid 3 game thing is over......

That's a nugget we can agree on. In a thirty team league that plays 162 games, having twelve playoff teams is borderline insanity. But don't hold your breath about it ever being "over", and we all know the reason why.

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

With Jackson Chourio, I think we'll get to experience the best of both worlds. 

Also, William Contreras is statistically the best catcher in baseball right now.....

That and the highest paid player on the team has been dealing with chronic back injuries for a decade now and said his back felt better a week after surgery than it had since his mid 20s. For a guy on pace to have a 25/50 type season with a 900+ OPS...that's a helluva addition. 

Mitchell, a player I admittedly have reservations about, but he's posted an 800 OPS now over 116 career games. Frelick, Turang, Ortiz, Black, Quero, also young guys who could(should) be better or help out next year.

 

If there was a year to push that payroll a bit...to add another 10-14M and maybe touch 145, it'd be next year. 

 

I just don't buy the "there's no schedule," stuff. There clearly is and it coincides with Chourio emerging, Quero, Misiorowski and then that aforementioned group all with a little time under their belts, PLUS....this bullpen should be just overwhelming. 

I hate the way the season ended and it feels...inevitable, but it's not. Chourio was a 14-year-old kid when were were playing the Dodgers to go to the WS. He could care less about the series since then. Give me ONE more .800 OPS 3B/2B or hell, at least just a competent bat and I think we'll have enough. We'll have those 1-5 hitters, fill in around them and then have a LOT of power arms to throw at teams. 

And then beyond that, we're probably a year away from the next wave of prospects hitting Milwaukee, sometime in '26 for guys like Wilken, Pratt and who the hell knows, Made could force himself in that group or Adams, whoever. It's just coming in waves now. 

 

 

I 100% understand how you can be pissed off the way the season has ended. I don't know how you can call it an organizational failure when guys like Devin Williams or Josh Hader are the ones getting hit or Corbin Burnes getting beat up an dof couse, every year there's an injury. 

And then there's the fluke luck. Hader has blown at least 2 games, Williams 2. You were literally one pitch away from wining any of 3 games vs the Braves, the D-Backs we had what seemed like 7 or 8 pitches hit over 100MPH that didn't get out of the IF while they nickel and dimed us to death. 

They're not excuses, like I said, I get it. But it this era of Brewers baseball isn't "good enough" for you...consistently being there year in and year out while you're actively IMPROVING the outlook of this team moving forward, then how many teams would you be happy rooting for? The Dodgers? Sure, if we were the LAD, we could add Burnes, Soto and Bregman, while bringing back Adames. Hell, we'd still have room to spare. 50M+30M+25+25, we could go into next year under the luxury. 

But that's not how MLB works, so perhaps we should enjoy the wave of young talent we have and hope we keep stacking 90-96 win teams, those bloopers will go in our direction. That line drive DP with 2 on vs the Braves in the 9th will find a hold and we'll have a shot at taking the lead. 

 

We get 6 months of good baseball consistently I won't let a pitch in 5-6 games change that. We've got a better team coming back. I'll watch the Brewers pretty much every night next year and hope our young studs can write a new ending. That simple. Loved this season and this team and Ill enjoy next years as well. Hopefully more!

[BrewerFan]

54 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

That's a nugget we can agree on. In a thirty team league that plays 162 games, having twelve playoff teams is borderline insanity. But don't hold your breath about it ever being "over", and we all know the reason why.

1 game, 3 games, 5 or 7, each team we've lost to has won a the NLCS. It's just getting hot at the right time...

And that guy that hit 3 HRs, 2 in one game, the other guy who was 5 of his first 8 while playing elite defense, guys like that make me think they handle the pressure and they'll find a way. 

[Thurston Fluff]

16 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Then you need to read more carefully because I never said that I never said that. 
 

The difference in overall talent level between the Brewers and the Mets is not that different if at all. However, two of the very best players at their position in the NL are on their roster. Those two players are paid a ton of money based on prior performance and  it’s the two same players who ended the Brewers season. 
 

It’s an interesting thought if the team is better off having a high floor in terms of overall talent with a lower ceiling, kind of describes the 2024 brewers or is it better to have weak spots on your roster but also a couple of players amongst the very best at their position. 

Those two very best players at their position have been there for several years and only now made it past the first round. They didn't even make it to the playoffs half their years together. If they are the difference then why didn't it make the difference before now? I think you're confusing correlation for causation.

[Playing Catch]

18 hours ago, Marc Newfield of Dreams said:

Who knows what Yelich will look like post-op. Willy's 32/112 RBI are gone. That run production is gonna have to come from somewhere. And we haven't even gotten to the bench, where you absolutely need to upgrade.

Many of us felt the same way last offseason. "We relied on pitching! But it's gone!" "We HAVE to sign Hoskins!" "We can't rely on rookies!" "Hitting HRs is all that matters in the playoffs, and this team can't do that!" (The Brewers out-homered the Mets 5-1 in this recent series).