Cubs get Tucker

[markedman5]

https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1867655382048637419?s=61&t=6XPB8f4sAKmJIzxgMcsCjw

[sveumrules]

MLBTR saying it's Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith heading back to HOU.

[BallFour]

I am not happy that I called this one. Cubs probably just acquired the best projected position player in the NL Central for 2025.

[markedman5]

 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, BallFour said:

I am not happy that I called this one. Cubs probably just acquired the best projected position player in the NL Central for 2025.

Yeah, looking at Steamer they have Tucker tops at 148 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR, though Contreras isn't far behind at 128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR.

Somewhat interestingly Matt McClain is 3rd among NLC position players per Steamer at 117 wRC+ | 4.0 WAR just fractions ahead of Elly De La Cruz at 111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR.

Chourio is 5th at 119 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR but assuming he picks up where he left off the last four months he should add a couple two tree wins on top of that pretty easily.

[markedman5]

Yep …..Cubs are going all in!

They better win it all this season because the chances of keeping him after this offseason is not great.

[owbc]

The Mariners fan half of me is glad to have him out of the AL West.

The Brewers fan half of me knows that he's going to do something to hurt us. 

[MoreTrife]

Tell at least that those are some solid prospects to give up?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, MoreTrife said:

Tell at least that those are some solid prospects to give up?

Paredes is a 25-year-old power-hitting 3B who the Cubs just got from the Rays. Cam Smith was their 1st round pick in 2024. Wesneski is a young, hard-throwing reliever with a lot of promise. They gave up a lot.

[StearnsFTW]

Eh.  I don't really think they gave up much at all.

Absolute steal for the Cubs.  Tucker was on pace for 9.5 WAR last year.  That's a dumb number.

All of this assumes they extend him, which I can't believe they won't.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Eh.  I don't really think they gave up much at all.

Absolute steal for the Cubs.  Tucker was on pace for 9.5 WAR last year.  That's a dumb number.

All of this assumes they extend him, which I can't believe they won't.

Extending him or not is kind of immaterial to to the conversation, though, IMO. The long and short of it is that they made a deal for a guy with one year of control left. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Eh.  I don't really think they gave up much at all.

Absolute steal for the Cubs.  Tucker was on pace for 9.5 WAR last year.  That's a dumb number.

All of this assumes they extend him, which I can't believe they won't.

Tucker is going to want $300M plus to forego FA.

Biggest contracts in Cubs history are Heyward (8/184) and Dansby (7/177). Swanson has at least earned his money with his glove so far, but Heyward was a pretty huge bust for them.

Not sure the Ricketts will be willing to pony up that kind of cash.

[StearnsFTW]

19 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Extending him or not is kind of immaterial to to the conversation, though, IMO. The long and short of it is that they made a deal for a guy with one year of control left. 

Still a great deal for the Cubs in my opinion.  Paredes and Wesnewski are eh to me.

<Edit:  Paredes is better than I was giving him credit for.>

Hinges on Smith. 

Tucker will be awesome this year if healthy, we can pretty much count on that.

 

And it's definitely not immaterial.  They have an exclusive negotiating window for a year.  They may not end up signing him, but it's not nothing.

[sveumrules]

Paredes whole game is pulling flyballs down the line for HRs.

He could hit 40 in HOU with the Crawford Boxes.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

7 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Still a great deal for the Cubs in my opinion.  Paredes and Wesnewski are eh to me.

<Edit:  Paredes is better than I was giving him credit for.>

Hinges on Smith. 

Tucker will be awesome this year if healthy, we can pretty much count on that.

 

And it's definitely not immaterial.  They have an exclusive negotiating window for a year.  They may not end up signing him, but it's not nothing.

It isn't nothing, but it's also difficult to factor in future value on a deal that isn't signed yet, if ever.

[wallus]

Have to assume this means Bregman isn't going back to Houston. 

[Sugarrayray]

I think the Cubs got hosed. Seeing the Yankees being unable to resign Soto - there’s no guarantee any team gets to resign these super free agents. The Cubs swung huge and if they don’t resign him they just gave up 3 building blocks. And they’re not one piece away this year so i don’t get it. Matter of fact I’m glad 😄 Call me crazy!

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, looking at Steamer they have Tucker tops at 148 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR, though Contreras isn't far behind at 128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR.

Somewhat interestingly Matt McClain is 3rd among NLC position players per Steamer at 117 wRC+ | 4.0 WAR just fractions ahead of Elly De La Cruz at 111 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR.

Chourio is 5th at 119 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR but assuming he picks up where he left off the last four months he should add a couple two tree wins on top of that pretty easily.

Projections have Chourio as a negative on defense and probably sell short his base running, too.

119 wRC+ from Chourio is almost certainly 4+ win player. He picks up where he left off post-June and that's a 5 win player at least most likely 6.

[nate82]

I am glad Cam Smith is no longer with the Cubs.  He was someone I wanted the Brewers to draft.  He is a solid piece going back to the Astros.

[markedman5]

1 hour ago, StearnsFTW said:

Eh.  I don't really think they gave up much at all.

Absolute steal for the Cubs.  Tucker was on pace for 9.5 WAR last year.  That's a dumb number.

All of this assumes they extend him, which I can't believe they won't.

After this offseason would you sign an extension if you were Tucker in your walk year?

I will be shocked if he signs an extension.

[StearnsFTW]

38 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

After this offseason would you sign an extension if you were Tucker in your walk year?

I will be shocked if he signs an extension.

If I liked it there and they made me a fair offer, sure.

 

Happens all the time.

[jay87shot]

2 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

I think the Cubs got hosed. Seeing the Yankees being unable to resign Soto - there’s no guarantee any team gets to resign these super free agents. The Cubs swung huge and if they don’t resign him they just gave up 3 building blocks. And they’re not one piece away this year so i don’t get it. Matter of fact I’m glad 😄 Call me crazy!

Agree, Tucker is probably the top 2025-26 free agent. Unless the Cubs go like 12/400 I doubt Tucker resigns. 

Paredes should be good in Houston with his pulling ways. I thought Cam Smith was way underrated as the 14th pick and played great in 30 some games. Wesneski isn't a huge value but with starter prices he can be a solid 5 if need be or nice multi inning guy out of the pen.

[wallus]

Interesting that Cubs fans are saying they are the clear division favorites now.

[brewmann04]

But we Got Nelson  and Money from the Yankees

[owbc]

Tucker is absolutely a 1 year rental, but you’re getting the full year over a deadline acquisition and he is as big of a piece as you can add.