Can a Dark Horse Push Aside Tyler Black and Jake Bauers for Backup Brewers First Baseman?

[Jake McKibbin]

Two members of the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers have a logistical advantage in the push for the final position-player spot on the active roster, come Opening Day. Could a non-roster invitee and two-time minor-league free agent overcome those obstacles?

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ernesto Martinez Jr. hasn’t popped up on many prospect lists. He’s taken some time to live up to the potential in his frame, since signing with the Brewers out of his native Cuba. He passed through the Rule 5 Draft, unselected. He's become a minor-league free agent and re-signed with the Brewers, meaning no other team offered him even a 40-man roster spot.

And yet, the man possesses some of the most freakish upside in camp this spring. Perhaps you’ve heard Joseph Zarr raving about his athleticism at first base, regularly including doing the splits to snag a throw faster on a close play. He’s covered center field admirably in the past. He’s 6-foot-7 and weighs 250 pounds. Then you see what he managed to put together in the final half of 2024, in the tough hitting environment that is the Southern League, not just in raw power but with a complete performance at the plate.

To put what I’m about to say in context, you need to know just how horrible the hitting environment is. Here’s how Martinez Jr compared to the league average, examining both his full-season numbers, and his final three months:

Those surface stats mean something, but they don’t tell the whole story, either. Martinez’s frame has historically created issues for hitters in controlling the strike zone and making strong contact. Giancarlo Stanton is a prime example; the long levers he possesses allow him to create massive bat speeds. Unfortunately, it comes with prolific in-zone swing-and-miss. Martinez somehow has the wham, without the whiff—at least in the minors.

His 90th-percentile exit velocity for the Biloxi Shuckers last season was 109 mph. He repeatedly topped 115 mph on individual batted balls. Note in the below quote to Adam McCalvy that the blast motion sensors top out at 89.9 mph of swing speed:

“He tops out the Blast sensor when we use it,” [Brewers hitting coordinator Brenton] Del Chiaro said. “He’s just continued to impact the baseball. The ‘damage’ components, the quality of contact components, have continued to improve. He’s progressively gotten better the more he’s matured. You come to the ballpark, you’re going to see him do something special, whether it’s the full-on splits, whether it’s stealing a bunch of bases, whether it’s hitting the ball out of the ballpark. It’s going to be entertaining.”

What does this mean? Well, Stanton had far and away the greatest bat speed in the majors in 2024, averaging 81.3 mph, while exceeding 88 mph on his swings just 15 times. Martinez has shown himself capable of matching that while retaining a strikeout rate (in the worst hitting environment in minor league baseball) under 14%. Excited yet?

When you have a frame as large as Martinez (who is also affectionately nicknamed “the show” and “the Cuban missile”) does, it takes time to work out how to synchronize the mechanics of your operations in the box. It seems that’s finally happened for the Brewers' talented infielder, and his ceiling is sky-high. He's hitting fewer infield fly balls and more line drives, while simultaneously tapping into more pull-side fly balls than in previous seasons. All of this fits the description of a player becoming more aware of how to create damage and more in-tune with his bat path.

I am incredibly excited to see how this young man performs in 2025. With better defensive chops than both Jake Bauers and Tyler Black, alongside a higher ceiling and the stolen base threat, there's a real chance that Martinez is on the Brewers roster on Opening Day. It's more likely the Brewers will try those ahead of him in the pecking order first—particularly Bauers, who may have an opt-out on his minor-league deal if he isn't on the roster—so perhaps midseason is a more realistic goal for "El Espectaculo". Still, he has every chance to force their hand with a great Cactus League showing.

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[Brian]

I hope he does have a great spring training but Nashville is where he will most likely start the season just so he can play every day.  He was with the Double-A Biloxi Shuckers last season but hit .284 which is great. 

[Trax]

I was surprised we didn't protect him and more surprised nobody even sniffed at him.

Will be on the watch list for sure this year...

[CheeseheadInQC]

I would love it if Martinez earned a spot eventually this year. I remember watching him when the Rattlers were in town a couple years ago and it sounded and almost felt different when he made contact than anyone else on the team.

[patrickgpe]

From what I read today, brewers only have control of him for 2025?

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, patrickgpe said:

From what I read today, brewers only have control of him for 2025?

If he isn't placed on the 40 Man roster by the end of the year he will be a minor league free agent again.

If he does make it onto the 40 Man the Brewers would have the standard three option years and six years of team control.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

If he isn't placed on the 40 Man roster by the end of the year he will be a minor league free agent again.

If he does make it onto the 40 Man the Brewers would have the standard three option years and six years of team control.

Jake Bauers will be 30 years old by the end of the year in Early October.  Hoskin's is 31 and one injury away from maybe ending it.  So we won't let him slip away if he truly has the potential I think he does. 

[patrickgpe]

 

8 minutes ago, Brian said:

Jake Bauers will be 30 years old by the end of the year in Early October.  Hoskin's is 31 and one injury away from maybe ending it.  So we won't let him slip away if he truly has the potential I think he does. 

if he just has to be added to the 40, protecting guys like Collins or Capra over him seems silly. 

[tmwiese55]

Didn't know the potential on this guy until reading this so thanks for the info.   Could be a real boost if he lives up to it and at least becomes an adequate stable starting 1B we've been kind of lacking since Fielder.  Not asking for all star level, just solid starter with 20-25 hr with ok avg/obp splits.   And cheap controlled for 6 years if it happens. 

Can shift that Hoskins money elsewhere and with the end of yelich's contract getting in sight maybe it provides some financial freedom. Seems they might have to start paying a bit for starting pitching help in the next few years as the stable top three starters are soon to be all gone. 

[jesusoftheapes]

No but we can invite him to play a bunch in Spring Training to drive up his value on trade markets around baseball .   I heard his name way back with the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes.   Rumors said they were trying to package him in that purposed deal to the White Sox when they were trying to get him in over the Winter meeting period.      So I think this is to get more exposure more than any actual challenge to the top of the list players who can play 1st base.    

[jesusoftheapes]

16 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Didn't know the potential on this guy until reading this so thanks for the info.   Could be a real boost if he lives up to it and at least becomes an adequate stable starting 1B we've been kind of lacking since Fielder.  Not asking for all star level, just solid starter with 20-25 hr with ok avg/obp splits.   And cheap controlled for 6 years if it happens. 

Can shift that Hoskins money elsewhere and with the end of yelich's contract getting in sight maybe it provides some financial freedom. Seems they might have to start paying a bit for starting pitching help in the next few years as the stable top three starters are soon to be all gone. 

His real life success seems to be being underspoken while his accomplishments in truth do not reach the hype you are hearing about him now.    so this has to be a prospect worm dangle.   Building up the prospect to make them seem more valuable in trades that could be dealt in the coming months. 

 

Who knows ?   The Owner informed us that winning is not the aim .  So why do I care anymore .        I still cannot believe he said those words out loud.    Mind blowing.