1/4 Season Evaluations, Predictions, Etc

[jay87shot]

We are 20-21, just a smidgen over 1/4 of the way through the year. I like to think at 1/4 of the way it is OK to make diffinitive statements that don't include small the phrases sample size or it is early in the year. Yes the term there is a lot of season left is OK.

Here are my observations.

1) We need someone to jump start this offense badly. Yeli and Contreras have been underwhelming. Chourio shows some signs but needs a slight adjustment to take more walks (or chase less pitches). Sal and Turang have been good but aren't the run producers we need.

2) The pitching has been great, especially when you take account of the injuries sustained. The bullpen is starting to take shape and looks to be close to settled. It will be really interesting to see how Arnold manages the roster spots over the next couple weeks as Woody, Civale, Ashby, Hall finish rehab. Not to mention Misi and likely Yoho deserving big league innings. I have been mentioning trading pitching for a 3B/SS as much as possible.

3)The future looks brighter than ever, even though the big league team isn't quite where we would all like it. Our minors seem to be getting deeper and deeper.

4) I am predicting a very active trade season. We will likely be one of the only teams with excess mlb arms to trade away and prospect to send out to add. Hopefully Arnold can find a way to add a controllable potential star or two that will help us catch the cubs this year and contribute long term.

 

[jay87shot]

Ok here is some intersting stuff. 

Conner Thomas has more earned runs than Freddy Peralta.

In fact, Thomas, Payamps, Nestor, ERod, Civale, Yoho account for 63 earned runs which is 38% of our earned runs. Despite only pitching 55 1/3 innings, which is 15% of the team innings.

Contreras has 12 runners caught stealing 4 more than the next best. He is also close to the pace of 100 walks on the season (95ish pace)

If he keeps his paces Chourio is in line for around 52 doubles, 28 HR, 100 rbi, 20 sb, 148 k, and 12 walks

Joey Ortiz has the lowest ops in the league amongst qualifying hitters at .461, Vinny Capra's ops is .250. (The rest of 3rd base is bad as well). We are tied for last in 3rd base WAR -1.1 and last at SS -1.6.

 

 

[RightFieldCoder]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

We are tied for last in 3rd base WAR -1.1 and last at SS -1.6.

These numbers are crazy. We can't even do the "have the worst 3rd base WAR" right.

[Playing Catch]

18 hours ago, jay87shot said:

4) I am predicting a very active trade season. We will likely be one of the only teams with excess mlb arms to trade away and prospect to send out to add. Hopefully Arnold can find a way to add a controllable potential star or two that will help us catch the cubs this year and contribute long term.

I, too, think that the Front Office has a lot of irons in the fire right now. I envision trades that WILL improve the 2026 roster and beyond. Moves that will improve the 2025 roster? Outlook unclear.

[igor67]

It is impressive how bad all of the 3rd base options seem to have turned out not just on the team but the offseason alternatives. Honestly if not for the OF injuries at this point Sal at 3rd would have to be the best choice I think.

[Samurai Bucky]

Rhys Hoskins is quietly doing well.  BA is the highest it has been in his career, I think.  His OPS is not as good as it could be.  Could use a few more homers.

The offense has been abysmal all around.  You need to have some type of production out of the left side of your infield (a war of -1.1 and -.2 isn't going to cut it).  Oh... and add a -.5 and -.3 for their replacements.

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

BA is the highest it has been in his career, I think.

Obviously, it is WAAYY too early to say this, but it would be really good for baseball if there was an example of a veteran 3TO slugger, like Hoskins, modify his approach to improve his batting average. I find opposite field singles that score runs sooo satisfying.

[Underachiever]

17 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Obviously, it is WAAYY too early to say this, but it would be really good for baseball if there was an example of a veteran 3TO slugger, like Hoskins, modify his approach to improve his batting average. I find opposite field singles that score runs sooo satisfying.

I think the last thing the Brewers need are more scoring chances where it takes 3 or 4 batters to plate a run. They do enough of that as it is. They need more Willy Adames-style 3-run shots. And you want Rhys on base why? For his speed? Hoping that Joey Ortiz will drive him in?

[Samurai Bucky]

2 hours ago, Underachiever said:

I think the last thing the Brewers need are more scoring chances where it takes 3 or 4 batters to plate a run. They do enough of that as it is. They need more Willy Adames-style 3-run shots. And you want Rhys on base why? For his speed? Hoping that Joey Ortiz will drive him in?

A little off topic, but I wanted to mention something about Rhys...

We were at the game vs. the Cubs last Sunday.  Before Sunday games, they have kids wait for the players at their position.  When the players come out, they sign a ball for the kids, chat with them, etc.

When I was learning how to coach little kids (aged 4-8 or something like that) in soccer (I had never coached anyone that young), I was told to get down to their level to talk to them.  It makes the kids feel more comfortable.  Hoskins was the only Brewers player to do that.  He might have gotten some dirt on his knee 😉.  I know it probably isn't much, but he earned a lot of respect from this Samurai.  I am sincerely pulling for him and hope he feels the love in Milwaukee.

Back on topic in 3... 2... 1.

[Playing Catch]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

I think the last thing the Brewers need are more scoring chances where it takes 3 or 4 batters to plate a run. They do enough of that as it is. They need more Willy Adames-style 3-run shots. And you want Rhys on base why? For his speed? Hoping that Joey Ortiz will drive him in?

First and foremost, I want Hoskins to be a productive hitter, regardless of HRs. Right now, he is producing significantly better this season, including defensively, and on the basepaths.

[bensheeps]

20 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

The offense has been abysmal all around.  You need to have some type of production out of the left side of your infield (a war of -1.1 and -.2 isn't going to cut it).  Oh... and add a -.5 and -.3 for their replacements.

First, I don't expect Bobby Dalbec to miraculously turn into an All-Star, but with the black hole that is the left side of the infield offensively, I would bring him up right away, give him consistent starts at 3rd base and see if he can get on a hot streak to help the offense.  Heck, I would bring him up today to face the LHP of the Guardians to see if Dalbec's lifetime OPS of .788 vs LHP could lead to some runs.

Other than EMJ, is there another AAA player that can help with adding some slug to the current team?

[endaround]

Not sure I would count on EMJ to produce much of anything. The AAA team is pretty barren. Zamora could fill in as a utility in a pinch and we have some decent #3 catchers.

[Playing Catch]

23 hours ago, endaround said:

Not sure I would count on EMJ to produce much of anything. The AAA team is pretty barren. Zamora could fill in as a utility in a pinch and we have some decent #3 catchers.

I think EMJ can produce consistent exit velocities and swing decisions. But his style of hitting isn't really that of a slugger. His style is more of that of a well-rounded hitter. Because of this, I'm more optimistic of his skills translating to MLB than I would a hitter like Wilken, who is more of a 3TO kind of guy. As my previous posts suggest, I feel like the league has largely learned to combat those kinds of hitters.

As far as the Brewers offense goes, the proof is in the pudding. If Ortiz was batting .230, and our platoon/bench players were simply below average, rather than abysmal, I think most of us would feel more comfortable.

I'm not arguing that the current state of the team is playoff-worthy. It isn't, and it hasn't been acceptable. With that said, it's early. The Cubs losing Steele and Shota to injury have opened a door to them cooling off. In another month, perhaps the Brewers' pitching stabilizes and the infielders warm up, along with Yelich. Lots of season left before decisions need to be made, IMO, but if the current team continues to scuffle, everything is on the table.

[Frisbee Slider]

On 5/13/2025 at 8:44 AM, bensheeps said:

Other than EMJ, is there another AAA player that can help with adding some slug to the current team?

 Brock Wilken, Double A 💪