Which Chourio is the real Chourio?

[Turning2]

What do you think explains Chourio's drop off this year? The HR production is still respectable, but the average is... well.... average. Sophomore slump to some degree? Pitchers have enough video to learn his weaknesses? Did he set the bar so high last year, that it's unfair to compare year 1 numbers to year 2? I'm not down on him by any means, he's still only 21 years old. I just wonder if the Chourio of last year was the exception and this year's version is what we should come to expect, or vice versa. 

[wibadgers23]

I don't think he's dropped off all that much.  Average is down compared to the end of last year but is probably on pace to beat his homerun and RBI totals.  Obviously needs to improve his OBP but I'm confident he will do that.  I think he's been solid this year.  Not great but solid.

[MattK]

Just throwing my 2 cents in ...

I never think development is linear.  His growth in his age 20 season may mean his next "growth" will be in his age 22 season, and not so much this year.  I believe he has some other outside factors which may be impacting him right now.  Full time CFer, now, so the defensive work & stress on that is more than last year.  Also, no Willy Adames to be a "older brother" figure to guide him.

I'm excited about what all the types of growth he will be going through, and believe from his work effort in the minors that he will persevere ... and by his age 23 or 24 season may be about fully starting a very high peak.

[tmwiese55]

Who knows as we just watch on TV, but to me its pretty simple that his eye/patience needs to come back and he'll go back to producing like he did the 2H last year.  

[sveumrules]

32 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

What do you think explains Chourio's drop off this year?

Plate approach/swinging too much.

First two months 2024
34.3 O-Swing%
69.0 Z-Swing%
52.5 Swing%

Last four months 2024
30.5 O-Swing%
63.5 Z-Swing%
47.3 Swing%

So far this year
39.0 O-Swing%
70.7 Z-Swing%
55.1 Swing%

[Brian]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

What do you think explains Chourio's drop off this year? The HR production is still respectable, but the average is... well.... average. Sophomore slump to some degree? Pitchers have enough video to learn his weaknesses? Did he set the bar so high last year, that it's unfair to compare year 1 numbers to year 2? I'm not down on him by any means, he's still only 21 years old. I just wonder if the Chourio of last year was the exception and this year's version is what we should come to expect, or vice versa. 

He is way to aggressive at the plate and swings over 70% of the time.  He is like a wild man and has no clue of the strike zone. That is #1. 

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, MattK said:

Full time CFer, now, so the defensive work & stress on that is more than last year.  Also, no Willy Adames to be a "older brother" figure to guide him.

 

I think the fascination with Adames as mentor / team leader / cheerleader was overblown. He was the dugout, class clown whose Gatorade dump schtick seemed to entertain a lot of casual fans. Nonetheless, I could see how a bright eyed, minor jumping to the big stage could find a security blanket in a veteran Hispanic teammate with a big personality. The bigger / better point is having the centerfield responsibilities thrust upon him unexpectedly. 

Overall, he is doing fine. Like I said, I just wonder which version we should expect in the coming years. Will he be a classic slow / streaky starter who tears it up in the 2nd half annually? Or will he level out his peak production throught the season(s)?

[Playing Catch]

I don't think anyone will remember the first few months of average production during his sophomore season after he wins an MVP.

[Jim French Stepstool]

As he matures we should see the BB totals grow & the Ks decrease. The sooner the better for that, but hitters mature on different time frames so who knows?  If/when Yelich & Contreras get more consistent behind him, you'd think he'd get more to hit. But if the chasing continues he won't.

I'm also in the camp that the move to CF might've been a bit of a mental monkey wrench.

[Oxy]

Most of the time, when it comes to fan perceptions about body language and clubhouse/dugout leaders--I don't think we have a clue, as @Turning2 was pointing out about Adames.  I do remember how soon after the Brewers acquired Luis Urias there was a big story about how Adames immediately connected with him and they went to each others hometowns (in Mexico and DR respectively) in the offseasons and whatnot.  ALSO: there was a story in The Athletic last year where they did anonymous polling of MLB players.  One of the questions was "What opponent would you most like to play alongside one day?" Players like to win, so among the top were guys like Ohtani and Judge....but conspicuously near the top of the list was one WIlly Adames.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At this time last season there were quite a few people who wanted to see Chourio back in the minors, and then he proceeded to play at a borderline MVP level the rest of the season (if Ohtani wasn't in the NL) .

 

He is 21 and goes through stretches where he is way too aggressive and gets himself out by swinging at balls.  Not much more to it than that.  You hope he keeps developing a more patiently aggressive approach, because if he does he's one of the best players in baseball for the next 8 seasons.

[Sixtolezcano]

No way to know for sure. Let’s apply a little patience and see where the next 6 years brings us.

[Turning2]

14 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't think anyone will remember the first few months of average production during his sophomore season after he wins an MVP.

LOL... you win the optimist award this week!

[Turning2]

13 hours ago, Oxy said:

Most of the time, when it comes to fan perceptions about body language and clubhouse/dugout leaders--I don't think we have a clue, as @Turning2 was pointing out about Adames.  I do remember how soon after the Brewers acquired Luis Urias there was a big story about how Adames immediately connected with him and they went to each others hometowns (in Mexico and DR respectively) in the offseasons and whatnot.  ALSO: there was a story in The Athletic last year where they did anonymous polling of MLB players.  One of the questions was "What opponent would you most like to play alongside one day?" Players like to win, so among the top were guys like Ohtani and Judge....but conspicuously near the top of the list was one WIlly Adames.

I don't entirely discount team leadership, But I do think some fans put too much weight on it is what I was getting at.  

[Playing Catch]

40 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

LOL... you win the optimist award this week!

Optimism? Yes, I suppose. I didn't mean he'd win an MVP THIS season, if that's how you interpreted it.

He's 21. He's already got a 20/20 season under his belt. It's June 10th of his sophomore season. He's currently at a wRC+ of 96. Call it a sophomore slump, if one must, but the league as a whole has been historically difficult for right-handed hitters so far this season.

I truly believe that Chourio's bat skills are superior to that of anyone that has donned the uniform. That includes HOFers and MVPs. Why wouldn't we think this kid is going to figure it out?

It's certainly possible, perhaps even probable, that Chourio will never even make an all-star team, let alone an MVP.

But if I'm making a prediction, I think that Chourio will put up about 5 or 6 MVP-worthy seasons. But there's usually 3 or 4 good candidates per season for MVP. So, I'll put his chances at ever winning an MVP at about 7-10%.

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

Optimism? Yes, I suppose. I didn't mean he'd win an MVP THIS season, if that's how you interpreted it.

He's 21. He's already got a 20/20 season under his belt. It's June 10th of his sophomore season. He's currently at a wRC+ of 96. Call it a sophomore slump, if one must, but the league as a whole has been historically difficult for right-handed hitters so far this season.

I truly believe that Chourio's bat skills are superior to that of anyone that has donned the uniform. That includes HOFers and MVPs. Why wouldn't we think this kid is going to figure it out?

It's certainly possible, perhaps even probable, that Chourio will never even make an all-star team, let alone an MVP.

But if I'm making a prediction, I think that Chourio will put up about 5 or 6 MVP-worthy seasons. But there's usually 3 or 4 good candidates per season for MVP. So, I'll put his chances at ever winning an MVP at about 7-10%.

Yes, I wrongly interpreted that you meant this season. The rest of your post is on point. He has MVP potential no doubt. Stiff competition though. Has to be lights out obvious as small market players will get overlooked if there are several neck and neck considerations. He'll be an All Star no doubt. Probably multiple times if for no other reason than he will be the marketing face of the franchise for most of the coming decade. 

[endaround]

56 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

Yes, I wrongly interpreted that you meant this season. The rest of your post is on point. He has MVP potential no doubt. Stiff competition though. Has to be lights out obvious as small market players will get overlooked if there are several neck and neck considerations. He'll be an All Star no doubt. Probably multiple times if for no other reason than he will be the marketing face of the franchise for most of the coming decade. 

Can we stop with this "woe is me" crap? Small markets do not get overlooked in MVP and Cy Young voting.

[Turning2]

31 minutes ago, endaround said:

Can we stop with this "woe is me" crap? Small markets do not get overlooked in MVP and Cy Young voting.

LOL, nope. I despise MLB's financial / competitive imbalance. Whether or not they get overlooked is entirely subjective, and you may have your opinion. I happen to believe it's in MLB's interests to have its shiniest awards go to its shiniest stars in its big market franchises whenever possible. Of course there will be exceptions. But to your point, I do think sometimes they "throw a bone" to small market teams as a feel good consolation prize like Murphy's Manager of the Year. Really meaningless award, but hey, Brewers fans can thump their chest about something, and that will keep them watching this grossly tilted league. I believe there is an aspect of that in the MLB business model. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Statcast numbers seem mostly in line with his finish numbers of last season. He currently has the longest HR hit this year.  Some trouble with breaking pitches compared to last season. Lower bb% lower k pct too.  Set a high bar, he's below right now.  Nothing to concerning. Sophomore season stuff. Adjust his approach may be all it takes.

[Oxy]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Statcast numbers seem mostly in line with his finish numbers of last season. He currently has the longest HR hit this year.  Some trouble with breaking pitches compared to last season. Lower bb% lower k pct too.  Set a high bar, he's below right now.  Nothing to concerning. Sophomore season stuff. Adjust his approach may be all it takes.

I don't even really think he needs a whole lot of conscious adjustments, he just needs more experience and maturity. It's one thing to see 1000 MLB pitches as a still physically maturing 20 year old.  It's another to have seen 10000 MLB pitches as a fully mature 23 year old.  Of course, it would be good to get that 10000 number a little sooner :)

[brewcrewdue80]

Chourio's 11th is 47 days sooner then last season. He's hitting 30 easy.