What Might the Looming Aaron Civale Trade Bring Milwaukee Brewers—and From Whom?

[Kyle Ginsbach]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

For the veteran Aaron Civale, an opportunity to start makes the most sense. He’s in the midst of a contract year, and a jump to the bullpen is the type of move that can cost pending free agents money. On Milwaukee’s end, a deal seems logical, as well. A loaded rotation as it stands right now, with no room for Logan Henderson and still missing the injured Brandon Woodruff, has no room for Civale. Milwaukee also has just the 26th-best OPS in the league, and for a team wanting to contend, that screams for offensive upgrades. Moving assets like Civale would be one way to achieve them. That isn’t to mention the contractual situation of Civale, who is Milwaukee’s highest-paid pitcher (alongside Freddy Peralta), making $8 million. Freeing up that contract could certainly pave the way for taking on some more money down the road.

Currently, the season stat line for Civale isn't exactly pretty, with a 4.91 ERA in five starts. That is inflated by a particularly bad start in Yankee Stadium on opening weekend, a start wherein he was injured, but since his return from the IL, his four starts have produced a respectable 3.32 ERA. Who might be interested in a seemingly mediocre pitcher who’s on the wrong side of 30, and has only eclipsed 125 innings in a season once?

Toronto Blue Jays
Seemingly, Aaron Civale is the perfect fit for a Toronto team that has struggled to find quality from the back end of their rotation. José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman have all pitched well at the top of the rotation, all with at least 76 innings and ERAs sitting under 4.00, but on the back end, it’s been ugly. Bowden Francis has logged 60 1/3 innings, good for the fourth-most on the team, but to the tune of a 6.12 ERA. No one else has made a full complement of starts, outside those four, as the fifth turn has been split between names like Easton Lucas and former Brewers Eric Lauer and José Ureña. It is worth mentioning that Max Scherzer and Alek Manoah are working their way back from injuries, but in an AL East division led by the Yankees, Toronto should be looking for help sooner, rather than later.

On Milwaukee’s end, there are two names from the Blue Jays that immediately jump out, despite being unrealistic: their platoon of third basemen, Ernie Clement and Addison Barger. Clement is slashing .280/.317/.406, but with an impressive OPS of 1.198 against lefties. Barger, who’s four years younger, has seen all but 22 of his plate appearances come against right-handers and boasts an .829 OPS so far. It is hard to imagine Toronto would want to part ways with the younger Barger, but the 29-year-old Clement being moved would open the door for Barger to earn the everyday role. However, on a contending team, moving a core player from their position group is unlikely.

With the pending free agency of both Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt, it seems highly probable that a trade for Civale would feature one of Toronto’s prospects. Eleven of the 15 top prospects for Toronto are pitching prospects, and with Milwaukee’s love of developing pitching, a pitcher is always a possibility. They could buy low on 2024 draftee and third baseman Sean Keys, Toronto’s 17th-ranked prospect, who struggled in High-A after a stellar season in Low-A last season, but it does seem like the pitching-heavy farm for Toronto could be something Milwaukee is interested in.

Boston Red Sox
On Boston’s end, the starting rotation has been much uglier. Garrett Crochet is a bona fide Cy Young candidate, but outside of him, it’s been turmoil. Established names like Walker Beuhler, Lucas Giolito, and Tanner Houck have struggled, all with ERAs north of 5.00, while once highly-touted prospect Bryan Bello’s 1.55 WHIP suggests his sub-4.00 ERA might not last. It’s a team desperately looking for quality, and Aaron Civale could be the answer.

In return, it’s hard to imagine much interest in Milwaukee. The injury to third baseman Alex Bregman and the struggles of Trevor Story have presented issues on Boston’s Infield; they're thin as it is. Former Brewer Abraham Toro is a possibility for an upgrade at third base, but he's the very most the team could likely pry away from Boston. Toro has been mashing against right-handers to the tune of a 1.012 OPS, but he’s primarily been playing 1st base this season.

What the Red Sox do have is the third-best farm system in all of baseball. That is certainly inflated by Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, and Roman Anthony, all of whom have since made their debuts (and none of whom exist in the same universe as a potential Civale trade), but Boston does have some prospects who might be of interest to the Brewers. Take 30th-ranked Hayden Mullins, who features some of the makings of a pitcher prospect, Milwaukee is usually interested in guys like him. A fastball with low velocity and high movement, a secondary fastball, and a wipeout slider, with apparent command issues, perhaps the 24-year-old lefty is someone Milwaukee sees more potential in. Alternatively, of course, they could ask for Yophery Rodriguez or John Holobetz. (Too soon?)

San Diego Padres
It may not have looked like it with their recent trip to American Family Field, but San Diego, too, is exploring the pitching market. They’ve gotten solid results from the top of their rotation early, with Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, and Randy Vasquez floating around the average line, but fluctuating injury timetables for Yu Darvish and Michael King have placed innings into the hands of inexperienced arms like Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. If the Padres are looking to compete with the mighty Dodgers and contend with the rest of the NL West, they’re probably looking for an extra rotation arm, and Civale could fit the bill while Darvish and King make their way back.

Like Toronto, it almost certainly would be a prospect coming back in return. San Diego doesn’t have the farm quality it had a few years ago, much to the point where any of their more valuable chips might go toward acquiring an upgrade over Gavin Sheets in left field, so it’s not unimaginable that Milwaukee ends up with a decent prospect from San Diego. That said, perhaps a player outside the top 30 could make an appearance, too; it all depends on Matt Arnold and company finding something they like.

Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies need innings, and if there’s anywhere Civale wouldn’t have to worry about a demotion to the bullpen, it’d be Colorado. Maybe Civale is part of a package that is shipped to Colorado for Ryan McMahon, or maybe it's as a last-ditch effort to get Civale’s contract off the books. Who knows? But with no team as desperate to get through the season like the Rockies, Civale’s services are certainly an option.

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What names should the Brewers be hunting for with Civale as a trade chip? What kind of value do you think the vet might bring? Let us hear your thoughts below.

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[brewmann04]

do you feel his request hurts the brewers in trying to move him?

[BrewerFan]

I don't think the trade request hurts him. I thought he should have come in and finished this game. 

If you could get a pick in the 60s, one of those comp picks, I'd be thrilled. 

I don't know the list of players who need to be added to the 40 or who are MiLB FAs, but maybe a package, try and get back a pick, that'd be a good idea. 

I don't see a position player that moves the needle, but if you could just reacquire a pick that you lost....or sure, I'd even take Yophery back. I was a big fan and he's struggling(not really a huge need, but you don't "need a need" when looking at a 19year old.

Best case if he can go out there and go a few 3-4 inning outings, finish some games after a guy like Hall or whoever and maybe pitch well and move him in the next few weeks. 

[wntrtxn21]

Zero chance I'd even think of McMahon, even if it was a 1 for 1 trade. McMahon is a product of Coors Field. He's a .214 hitter away from Coors. He also would cost Milwaukee far too much for his value (about $39M through 2027). If the Jays would move Clement, Arnold would have to include a pretty good prospect and Civale to get them to even think about it. A lot of interesting ideas above.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Zero chance I'd even think of McMahon, even if it was a 1 for 1 trade. McMahon is a product of Coors Field. He's a .214 hitter away from Coors. He also would cost Milwaukee far too much for his value (about $39M through 2027). If the Jays would move Clement, Arnold would have to include a pretty good prospect and Civale to get them to even think about it. A lot of interesting ideas above.

McMahon is not a step up from Durbin no way no how, plus he is 30 years old.

If were going to make a trade it should be for a better player. 

[Snoebird]

Arizona needs a starting pitcher and has a slugging third baseman in Eugenio Suarez, whose contract expires after this season. The Diamondbacks also have a prospect waiting to replace Suarez in Jordan Lawler. If the Brewers need to add a prospect such as the frustrating Tyler Black, why not this?

[Joseph Zarr]

I'm thinking they are going to surprise many and target 1B Andrew Vaughn from the White Sox. I'm just reading the tea leaves. Oh wait, I'm actually reading an article at MLB Trade Rumors. Darn it. I gave away my 'secret'.