Wisconsin football 2026

[OldSchoolSnapper]

There's an indisputable correlation with NIL money and wins, and it raises the floor of your program tremendously. You will always be able to find exceptions scouring 140 teams, and you can't just expect to win every game because you outspent the opponent. I don't think anyone thinks that. But o/u $20mm is a median win increase of 2 and a mean of 2.5.

Wisconsin got caught with its pants down. It was not in any way prepared for NIL, thought they would continue winning 8-9 games a year because predecessors made it look easy, and paid no mind to their eroding program that many fans could see after Bielema. I know what Bielema is to many people, but it's hard to argue that things didn't start to decline once he left. 

 

 

[JosephC]

1 hour ago, homer said:

https://nil-ncaa.com/big10/

NIL money doesn't guarantee success (PSU) nor does an average amount mean you will suck (Iowa). 

That can't be right.  We've heard over and over and over that the Badgers are in the top third of the Big 10 in NIL spending.

[Samurai Bucky]

5 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

This program is dead in the water until there's massive reform in college football. 

There's a lot of bickering about Fickell but I really don't think anyone would have UW cruising in this environment. They were not financially positioned to compete and it shows. The truth is they've been in a decline since Bielema left. They got by for a little bit on old recruiting/image from years of winning but once there were a few hiccups things really went South, and the in-state talent pool seems to have fallen off a cliff.

I think they would have done better.  Recall -- Gary Andersen tried to revamp the offense and see where that got him?  They went back to being tough up front only to go away from it when Fickell came back.

[homer]

2 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

There's an indisputable correlation with NIL money and wins, and it raises the floor of your program tremendously. You will always be able to find exceptions scouring 140 teams, and you can't just expect to win every game because you outspent the opponent. I don't think anyone thinks that. But o/u $20mm is a median win increase of 2 and a mean of 2.5.

Wisconsin got caught with its pants down. It was not in any way prepared for NIL, thought they would continue winning 8-9 games a year because predecessors made it look easy, and paid no mind to their eroding program that many fans could see after Bielema. I know what Bielema is to many people, but it's hard to argue that things didn't start to decline once he left. 

 

 

Iowa. I would settle for Iowa levels of success.

NIL money isn't forcing Fickell to take a timeout to avoid a 5 yard penalty on the opponents 37 yard line only to punt and get a touchback. NIL money isn't forcing Fickell to punt on the opponent's 49-yard line on 4th and 7 with over 8 minutes left in the game and down 21 points. 

Iowa's records since 2015:

Maybe things would be different had Fickell not hired Longo as OC but he did and that is squarely on him.

[homer]

Hey they may turn things around and have a 7 win season. They looked decent in the 1st half yesterday. But every close game will be an opportunity for Fickell to botch game management in the 4th quarter. That hasn't improved during his tenure, and there is no reason to believe it will change going forward.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Going by NIL money alone is awfully simplistic (although it's obviously a factor). I think the transfer portal & allowing people to leave every year w/no repercussions is huge. For over 35 years this has been a developmental program. Now it pretty much can't be. There are exceptions, but in large part any skill improvement you accomplish is just as apt to help the next program the guy jumps to as your own. I think that's affected UW more than others. Of course I'm talking big picture here; not for one second do I believe we have a bunch of 'coach 'em up, make everyone better' coaches on this staff.

And along with the many years of winning, a lot of fans particularly enjoyed that aspect of the program, how kids develop, wait their turn, maybe show something on special teams & after 4-5 years you look back & found that you experienced something that you really enjoyed seeing unfold & being emotionally invested in (not to mention financially through season tix, bowl game trips, etc). Barring a miracle that isn't coming back. And it's created a rather large contingent of fans who are much more apathetic.

[Jim French Stepstool]

43 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

 They went back to being tough up front only to go away from it when Fickell came back.

Big, big, big time.

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

 Fickell may go down as the worst head coach in this program's history, and that's saying a lot considering the pre-Alvarez years.

I'm nowhere close to being a Fickell supporter. But IMO Don Morton was much, much worse.

[yourout]

38 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm nowhere close to being a Fickell supporter. But IMO Don Morton was much, much worse.

Morton is the lowest bar in the bad coaching limbo contest. Few if any have been worse in college football history.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, homer said:

NIL money isn't forcing Fickell to take a timeout to avoid a 5 yard penalty on the opponents 37 yard line only to punt and get a touchback. NIL money isn't forcing Fickell to punt on the opponent's 49-yard line on 4th and 7 with over 8 minutes left in the game and down 21 points. 

And none of those things made a damn bit of difference in the outcome of the game.

Mountains vs molehills.

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I think they would have done better.  Recall -- Gary Andersen tried to revamp the offense and see where that got him?  They went back to being tough up front only to go away from it when Fickell came back.

They still would have needed to go to the portal for those tough OL, and DL.  Chryst left them nothing at those two positions.  Hardly any recruits at those positions in his last 3 years.  3 scholarship DL in Chryst's last 3 recruiting classes, two of whom weren't good enough to see the field (Jarvis, Howard).  6 scholarship OL in Chryst's last 3 years, 3 of whom never or hardly ever saw the field (Benzschawel, Nelson, Durand).  And if they're not putting a lot into the portal, like they weren't... those tough OL/DL weren't coming here.

Nevermind, still needing a QB.  Cole LaCrue, Myles Burkett, and Marshall Howe weren't going to lead them to many wins.

I think there's a bit of revisionist history with Longo.  They were 5-4 in conference in 2023 when they had a somewhat healthy QB1, but that 5-4 included going 1-3 in games where Locke started or played most of the game.  Longo was by no means great, but if I'm ranking worst OCs post-Morton, I have Joe Rudolph and Bobby Engram ahead of him.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

And none of those things made a damn bit of difference in the outcome of the game.

Mountains vs molehills.

Yeah, I mean, that's kinda what I was going to say. I don't have a strong opinion on Fickell, or UW as a whole. But I think he's suffering big time from timing. His predecessors had benefits from the legacy of the 25 years or so before them. It takes a while for the shine to fade. It was gone by the time Fickell got there, and now they're trying to rebuild it. That's incredibly hard to do without a regime change, in the midst of the NIL/transfer portal chaos that the program was just not prepared for at all. I think his fate is being fired soon, just not sure he had a real chance. The group that comes in after him will have more realistic expectations. I don't think UW is set up to succeed for a couple of years at least.

I just have a tough time believing that a guy with the experience Fickell had, as well regarded by very big names in coaching as he was, is really that bad of a coach.

[JosephC]

16 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Yeah, I mean, that's kinda what I was going to say. I don't have a strong opinion on Fickell, or UW as a whole. But I think he's suffering big time from timing. His predecessors had benefits from the legacy of the 25 years or so before them. It takes a while for the shine to fade. It was gone by the time Fickell got there, and now they're trying to rebuild it. That's incredibly hard to do without a regime change, in the midst of the NIL/transfer portal chaos that the program was just not prepared for at all. I think his fate is being fired soon, just not sure he had a real chance. The group that comes in after him will have more realistic expectations. I don't think UW is set up to succeed for a couple of years at least.

I just have a tough time believing that a guy with the experience Fickell had, as well regarded by very big names in coaching as he was, is really that bad of a coach.

Fickell is not a big conference head coach.

2009 Ohio State = 11-2

2010 Ohio State = 12-1

2011 Ohio State = 6-7 (Fickell is head coach)

2012 Ohio State = 12-0

2013 Ohio State 12-2

Guy can't even with 50% of his games with Ohio State talent.

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

37 minutes ago, JosephC said:

Fickell is not a big conference head coach.

2009 Ohio State = 11-2

2010 Ohio State = 12-1

2011 Ohio State = 6-7 (Fickell is head coach)

2012 Ohio State = 12-0

2013 Ohio State 12-2

Guy can't even with 50% of his games with Ohio State talent.

 

Oh come on, lol. We both know this is just a LITTLE disingenuous. 

[JosephC]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Oh come on, lol. We both know this is just a LITTLE disingenuous. 

Anything disingenuous about-

Record as an American Conference head coach = 57-18

Record as a Big 10 head coach = 23-29

Fickell is not a big conference head coach.

If you would rather blame Chris McIntosh, be my guest.  He is really the idiot to blame for the program's downfall.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

Anything disingenuous about-

Record as an American Conference head coach = 57-18

Record as a Big 10 head coach = 23-29

Fickell is not a big conference head coach.

If you would rather blame Chris McIntosh, be my guest.  He is really the idiot to blame for the program's downfall.

Fickell might be the worst coach in the B1G. I honestly don't follow it anywhere near closely enough to know. But his random scandal year in a depleted and suspended OSU shouldn't count for anything. I personally think his timing at UW could not have been worse: in-state talent pool decaying, reinventing the offense when the portals became a complete mess, underfunded NIL.

 

I don't think he has really had a great shake of things trying to be a HC. Wisconsin was fading before he took the job. 

[JosephC]

 

13 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

I honestly don't follow it anywhere near closely enough to know.

You sure got that part right.

  

[OldSchoolSnapper]

1 hour ago, JosephC said:

 

You sure got that part right.

  

Sick burn, man. That really hurt my feelings and justified the absurdity of using his one season in which the real HC was cast off and half the star players were suspended or left the team. An interim scandal HC is a totally reasonable circumstance in which to evaluate a guy's first major HC job, and you totally don't come as bitter or having sour grapes, or grossly reaching just to bash the guy in this thread at all. Maybe pretend I'm Fickell and insult me more and it'll help you feel better about how bad the team is. Probably not though.

The fact that you brought up his interim gig at OSU, which he and everyone knew was temporary on Day 1, and was just a "here, take this flaming bag of poo while we take a cycle to extinguish it," sullies anything further you have to say about the guy. I hate the Badgers, and people like you are a huge reason why - the smugness. I personally don't care if Fickell is fired today. 

But any non-Badger fan forced to digest their product semi-consistently could tell that the seeds of decay were planted long before Fickell ever got there. The real winner here is Leonhard, who would have also lost a bunch, because quite simply the horses are not there, and now he has a coaching career he can still salvage. The basketball program would be in the exact same spot if it had to roster as many kids.

Wisconsin doesn't have good football players. It stopped getting them years before Fickell was hired. Then they did a piss-poor job of supplying him with the resources to get the right ones. He may very well have failed anyway, but they're trying to course-correct 3 years later. The whole thing is a mess, I'd be lying if I said I'm not enjoying the humble pie a bit, but their administration is as much to blame as any coach.

[tmwiese55]

I'll admit they looked way more competent than the past two seasons. Can take some good positives from the 1H.  And generally speaking, I think the D will be fine/competent.   In addition, take away the terrible ref call to give them a free TD and it does change the game quite a bit. I know they wouldn't have won, but could've hung around a lot longer. Perhaps not being down as much leads to less pressure to throw and the pick 6 doesn't happen. Next thin you know its the 4th Q and maybe you're only down 7-10 and can claim you hung with a clear top 10 team. 

But ultimately in the first quarter of the season, after talking all offseason how this year is gonna be different they had: a fumbled kick, fumbled snap at critical point, and a dumb 15 yd personal foul.  3 of the main things that have plagued the whole Fickell era and the lack of discipline, attention to detail, coaching, etc.

At this point, they should be fair catching every kick. 

[JosephC]

Just glancing through the list, Fickell had the following players in his one year as head coach at Ohio State (all of the following played, and none of them were suspended).  QB-Braxton Miller, RB-Carlos Hyde, WR-Devin Smith (freshman), TE-Jake Stoneburner, OT-Jack Mewhort, OT-Andrew Norwell, C-Corey Linsley, DE-John Simon, DT-Jonathan Hankins, LB-Ryan Shazier (freshman), CB-Bradley Roby, S-Christian Bryant.  Those are just the highlights, there are many more NFL'ers on the list.  They had far better than 6 win, 7 loss talent.  They had 5 players suspended, Terrelle Pryor, RB-Dan Herron (returned and played after 5 game suspension), OT-Mike Adams (more than adequate replacements in Mewhort and Norwell), DE-Solomon Thomas (not the same one that was a first round pick for the 49ers, this one had 27 tackles and 0 sacks in 4 college seasons) and WR-DeVier Posey (who returned and played after a 5 game suspension).  Pollsters knew of the suspensions, still gave them a #18 ranking prior to the season.  The ranked status lasted until week 3, when they got beat by a Miami, Fl team that had already lost to a pathetic Maryland team and ended with a 6-6 record (3-5 in the ACC).

When the Badgers hired Fickell, I went into work and the Ohio State grad told me that, despite the media hype, the Badgers screwed up because Fickell is not a Big 10 head coach.  Everything I've seen makes it look like that guy was right.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think anyone would argue that Ohio State had 6-7 talent. They obviously didn't. But simply listing future NFL players strips away virtually all of the context of what Fickell actually inherited, and I believe you're just doing that on purpose.

Fickell wasn't hired in December, given an offseason to build a staff and install his program, and then went 6-7. He went through spring practice as an assistant expecting Jim Tressel to be the head coach. His job was supposed to be filling in during Tressel's suspension. Tressel then resigned on May 30, and Fickell suddenly became the head coach for the entire season. Days later, Pryor, who everyone had expected to return after his five-game suspension, left entirely.

Braxton Miller was enormously talented, but calling him "QB-Braxton Miller" without mentioning that he was an 18-year-old true freshman is doing a lot of work. The same applies to Devin Smith and Ryan Shazier. Those guys becoming excellent players later doesn't mean they were finished products in September 2011. Miller was so raw that Ohio State basically couldn't throw the football for portions of that season.

And the suspensions weren't insignificant just because some of those players eventually returned. Boom Herron was coming off a 1,100-yard, 16-TD season. Mike Adams was a first-team All-Big Ten tackle. DeVier Posey had led Ohio State in receiving the previous two seasons. Pryor was the reigning Big Ten MVP and never returned at all. Losing that group while simultaneously losing your head coach in late May is a pretty substantial disruption.

Treating 2011 as evidence that he was handed a normal, loaded Ohio State team and simply couldn't coach is revisionist.

You can make a perfectly legitimate argument that Fickell has failed at Wisconsin. You can even argue that his Cincinnati success hasn't translated to the Big Ten. But pointing to 2011 as definitive proof that some Ohio State fan had him figured out 15 years ago requires ignoring almost everything unusual about that season and most of Fickell's coaching career afterward. 

[homer]

17 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Fickell might be the worst coach in the B1G. I honestly don't follow it anywhere near closely enough to know. But his random scandal year in a depleted and suspended OSU shouldn't count for anything. I personally think his timing at UW could not have been worse: in-state talent pool decaying, reinventing the offense when the portals became a complete mess, underfunded NIL.

Can you back that up with some facts? They haven't been getting the top rated guys in the state (I guess we will blame NIL) but is the overall pool worse the last 5 years?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

29 minutes ago, homer said:

Can you back that up with some facts? They haven't been getting the top rated guys in the state (I guess we will blame NIL) but is the overall pool worse the last 5 years?

I do. 2022 and 2023 were two of the worst consecutive years on record for WI high school football. I would consider 5 blue chips 'decent'. Depending on your source, 3-4 blue chips came out of the state in 2022. '23 might have been the worst year ever, they had 1. The '23 class would be seniors now. That is the in-state pool he has been working with. 

Last year's was also quite bad. The best class WI has seen in a long time, actually, is this year's seniors.

From 2017-2021, UW landed the No. 1 kid in the state. In 2021, they signed all of the top 6. From '22-'26, they lost 3 of the top 5 to other places every year. There's a bit to unpack there, since last year the #1 kid in WI was ranked in the 600s nationally.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Big Ten realignment after the additions of the Pac 12 schools also brutalized the Badger program, because they made hay being the best program in the worst Big Ten division (Big Ten West) - that guaranteed them a spot in the Big 10 title game annually unless they were in a total rebuilding year.  

After the divisions were eliminated, their typical conference schedule got tougher at the same time as some of these marquee out of conference matchups with blue blood programs show up on their schedule, and they don't have the NIL war chest that the biggest programs in the conference have to compete.  They're back to being an afterthought on the national stage, which sucks.

 

[owbc]

This is an all-of-the-above situation

1. Wisconsin football was already in decline when Fickell was hired.

2. Fickell was the wrong hire.

3. NIL hit quickly and Wisconsin football was ill-prepared to adapt.

I say football because the rest of Wisconsin athletics seems to be doing fine. Men's hockey was fixed with a good coaching hire. 

Anyway, it's obvious they will be switching football coaches soon, the question is when. The sooner the better in my view. Need the coach in well ahead of the January transfer window, so when other firings happen this fall we need to be first in line to get the new guy onboard.