Brewers (Henderson) vs Nationals (Poulin): 5/3/26, 12:35pm

[sveumrules]

25 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Really? Reds?

Entering today the Reds have scored 4.27 runs per game (20th) with a 90 wRC+ (25th) and +0.44 WPA (13th)

The Brewers were at 5.31 runs per game (3rd) with a 99 wRC+ (14th) and +1.74 WPA (5th).

The Reds record is primarily because of their bullpen at this point with an MLB best +3.12 Win Probability Added though their run prevention (94 ERA- | 14th) and peripherals (109 FIP- | 24th) suggest they are ripe for regression as the season rolls along.

All of run differential (+45 to -22), BaseRuns (+24 to -29), PECOTA (58.0% to 25.2% playoff odds), and FanGraphs (42.3% to 26.9% playoff odds) favor the Brewers at this point.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Take away 3 games and they are barely mid pack.

Lol you can't just pick and choose games to fit a narrative. 

Even if you could, you'd then have to take away every other team's best three games before you make any comparison. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Bulldogboy said:

Really? Reds? Those teams are more complete 1-9. Unless Ortiz and Rengifo are being replaced we can't say that. Chourio takes care of left but I am not ready to say Vaughn is the answer until we see him. Hopefully he is the same guy but wrist injuries are tough.

The Reds? You mean the one team in the division that has actually struggled to score runs and which has like three good hitters and a host of really bad hitters. 

[adambr2]

This game for me was lost today when Frelick came up with 1 out and two runners in scoring position and promptly popped up. 

We need better out of Sal. That’s one of the main things holding the offense back.

[Bulldogboy]

55 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The Reds? You mean the one team in the division that has actually struggled to score runs and which has like three good hitters and a host of really bad hitters. 

We shall see. You and most Brewers fans are depending heavily on Vaughn being the Brewers version and not the white Sox version. If Mitchell and Frelick don't pick it up it won't matter.

[wiguy94]

27 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

We shall see. You and most Brewers fans are depending heavily on Vaughn being the Brewers version and not the white Sox version. If Mitchell and Frelick don't pick it up it won't matter.

Mitchell has a 115 wRC+. He's been 15% better than a league average hitter. 

[wiguy94]

I feel like it might go underappreciated what the Brewers SP did in this series. Only 28 pitchers have started a single MLB game this year that are 24 years old or younger. The Brewers just had a series where all 3 of their starters were 24 years old. They combined to go 17.1 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 21 SO in the series and if it weren't for a cramp and a pitcher slipping it might have been even more special.

[yourout]

3 hours ago, Brian said:

Something to think about:  Daniel Vogelbach hired as a hitting coach for the Milwaukee Brewers has no clue how to be a hitting coach.  

That thought had crossed my mind but I really cant pass judgement with barely a month of games and the injurys to 3 of the most important hitters on the roster. Really have to see how the whole season goes.

[Bulldogboy]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Mitchell has a 115 wRC+. He's been 15% better than a league average hitter. 

Striking out almost 40 percent of the time.

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Striking out almost 40 percent of the time.

That’s one component of hitting. The same way using only batting average to evaluate a hitter is a bad idea, using only K% is also a bad idea. Mitchell has been an above average hitter so far this year so the idea he needs to pick it up doesn’t make much sense.

[Bulldogboy]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

That’s one component of hitting. The same way using only batting average to evaluate a hitter is a bad idea, using only K% is also a bad idea. Mitchell has been an above average hitter so far this year so the idea he needs to pick it up doesn’t make much sense.

When there is a runner on third and less than two it does. When there's a runner on second and you can't pull a ball to the right side it does. That is call a productive out. A strikeout is not that. It matters and he needs to do better than that to be productive. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

21 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

Striking out almost 40 percent of the time.

Being 15% better than league avg WHILE striking out almost 40% of the time actually makes him a little more intriguing. If he can cut down the K rate.............he may not, lots of guys never do. But the big element in his favor is the severe lack of MLB ABs given the injuries.

No one hates guys who can run having trouble making contact more than I do. But all things considered in Mitchells' case, simply labeling him at this point is unfair. If he doesn't get it down to a more manageable # then no, the production isn't sustainable.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

When there is a runner on third and less than two it does. When there's a runner on second and you can't pull a ball to the right side it does. That is call a productive out. A strikeout is not that. It matters and he needs to do better than that to be productive. 

Absolutely.

[Brian]

1 hour ago, yourout said:

That thought had crossed my mind but I really cant pass judgement with barely a month of games and the injurys to 3 of the most important hitters on the roster. Really have to see how the whole season goes.

I just hope the leash isn't to long if the higherups are suspecting something with Vogelbach.  I thought it was an odd hire when it happened. Seven coaches and managers combined have already bit the dust this season with the Red Sox and Phillies. 

• Boston Red Sox Coaching Staff: Along with Cora, the team let go of hitting coach Pete Fatse, third-base coach Kyle Hudson, bench coach Ramón Vázquez, assistant hitting coach Dillon Lawson, and hitting strategy coach Joe Cronin.
• Rob Thomson (Philadelphia Phillies Manager): Fired on April 29, 2026, following a slow start. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, adambr2 said:

This game for me was lost today when Frelick came up with 1 out and two runners in scoring position and promptly popped up. 

We need better out of Sal. That’s one of the main things holding the offense back.

A poor AB. And afterwards, we seemed to change the philosophy after the Nats went to the pen. An awful lot of quick outs vs some mediocre stuff. Almost as if the baseball gods were doling out payback for some really good ABs vs Soroka---who is having a very solid year---during the last homestand.

[wiguy94]

24 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

When there is a runner on third and less than two it does. When there's a runner on second and you can't pull a ball to the right side it does. That is call a productive out. A strikeout is not that. It matters and he needs to do better than that to be productive. 

Yeah Mitchell the guy who leads the team in RE24 needs to be more productive. If you don’t know what RE24 is it is runs above average based on the 24 base/out scenarios so Mitchell has been extremely productive this year factoring in the base/out scenarios when he comes to the plate. 

No the strikeout rate is not ideal but that doesn’t mean he’s been a bad hitter who needs to pick it up. The strikeout rate is one component of a hitter. You can have a high K-rate and be a very good hitter. You can also have a low K-rate and be a bad hitter because it’s one singular stat that makes up a hitter

[sveumrules]

29 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

When there is a runner on third and less than two it does. When there's a runner on second and you can't pull a ball to the right side it does. That is call a productive out. A strikeout is not that. It matters and he needs to do better than that to be productive. 

Mitchell was hitting 393/528/714 for a 238 wRC+ with RISP that ranked 3rd out of 132 batters with at least 30 PA with RISP entering the game today. His 20 RBI are 5th on that same leaderboard.

Hard to be much more productive than that.

[jay87shot]

I think Murphy got had today. He put a bunch of lefties later in the lineup to avoid the opener. The opener goes 2 and gets those lefties, then the right only has to go 3 plus and another lefty gets 2 innings.

I dont like Turang taking days of, he is our best bat and should be playing everyday. We have had some weak lineups on Sundays with Murph resting guys.

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think Murphy got had today. He put a bunch of lefties later in the lineup to avoid the opener. The opener goes 2 and gets those lefties, then the right only has to go 3 plus and another lefty gets 2 innings.

I dont like Turang taking days of, he is our best bat and should be playing everyday. We have had some weak lineups on Sundays with Murph resting guys.

Reportedly Turang was sick.

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah Mitchell the guy who leads the team in RE24 needs to be more productive. If you don’t know what RE24 is it is runs above average based on the 24 base/out scenarios so Mitchell has been extremely productive this year factoring in the base/out scenarios when he comes to the plate. 

No the strikeout rate is not ideal but that doesn’t mean he’s been a bad hitter who needs to pick it up. The strikeout rate is one component of a hitter. You can have a high K-rate and be a very good hitter. You can also have a low K-rate and be a bad hitter because it’s one singular stat that makes up a hitter

That solves it. Mitchell is basically Aaron Judge and is doing awesome. Got it. Thank God Murphy is playing him every day he's so productive. He's lost time to Perkins and Greg Jones. 😆 

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Mitchell was hitting 393/528/714 for a 238 wRC+ with RISP that ranked 3rd out of 132 batters with at least 30 PA with RISP entering the game today. His 20 RBI are 5th on that same leaderboard.

Hard to be much more productive than that.

I just told you how. Put the ball in play more than 60 percent of the time.

[Bulldogboy]

13 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I think Murphy got had today. He put a bunch of lefties later in the lineup to avoid the opener. The opener goes 2 and gets those lefties, then the right only has to go 3 plus and another lefty gets 2 innings.

I dont like Turang taking days of, he is our best bat and should be playing everyday. We have had some weak lineups on Sundays with Murph resting guys.

Turang was a late scratch 

[Bulldogboy]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Being 15% better than league avg WHILE striking out almost 40% of the time actually makes him a little more intriguing. If he can cut down the K rate.............he may not, lots of guys never do. But the big element in his favor is the severe lack of MLB ABs given the injuries.

No one hates guys who can run having trouble making contact more than I do. But all things considered in Mitchells' case, simply labeling him at this point is unfair. If he doesn't get it down to a more manageable # then no, the production isn't sustainable.

I just said he needs to do better in this area. The statheads are telling me he's Tony Gwynn. I didn't think it was a big deal. He's got to put it in play more.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Bulldogboy said:

That solves it. Mitchell is basically Aaron Judge and is doing awesome. Got it. Thank God Murphy is playing him every day he's so productive. He's lost time to Perkins and Greg Jones. 😆 

Resorting to hyperbole because people responded to your retorts with facts is a bit much, no? Nobody said he was Aaron Judge. In fact I said he’s been an above average hitter because that’s what he’s been. He’s played in the second most games and is 5th PA despite Murphy openly saying they are giving him periodic days off to try and keep him healthy.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Bulldogboy said:

I just said he needs to do better in this area. The statheads are telling me he's Tony Gwynn. I didn't think it was a big deal. He's got to put it in play more.

No that’s not what you initially said. You said Mitchell and Frelick need to pick it up. You didn’t start talking about his strikeout rate until after you were corrected that Mitchell has been an above average hitter on the year.  You keep moving the goalposts every time someone points out facts. Nobody thinks Mitchell’s K-rate is in a good spot. Everyone wants it to improve. Despite that K-rate he’s still been an above average hitter.