A Risk-Averse Garrett Mitchell is Not Finishing the Job in Center Field

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Garrett Mitchell owes many of his continued opportunities as the Brewers’ starting center fielder to his high ceiling. When he’s clicking, no position player on the 40-man roster has the potential to be a more explosive player. Part of what makes Mitchell so polarizing is that his shortcomings are glaring issues, but he’s countered some of those flaws by being elite in his areas of strength.

For most of his career, that has included being an excellent defensive center fielder. Mitchell entered this season with 10 Defensive Runs Saved and a 7 Fielding Run Value in just 822 ⅓ innings, a pace that would make him one of the game’s most valuable defenders at the position over a full season. It’s been a much different story in 2026. Mitchell has been a negative up the middle, with -3 DRS and -2 FRV in just over 300 innings.

Mitchell is converting fewer plays, despite having some of the best reads and athleticism of his career. His average sprint speed of 29.7 feet per second is the fastest he’s run since his debut in late 2022. According to Statcast, he’s covering 2.3 more feet with his jump (distance traveled in the correct direction within the first three seconds of a ball being hit) than the average outfielder, which is a career best.

The issue hasn’t been tracking the ball. Mitchell is putting himself in positions to make just as many rangy catches as before—if not even more. However, things unravel quickly when he faces danger in the final pace or two of completing the play. Mitchell has already accumulated a laundry list of injuries by age 27. He’s finally been able to stay on the field for the most continuous stretch of his career, but has looked afraid to put himself in harm’s way.

That hesitancy cropped up almost immediately during Opening Day weekend, when Mitchell made his first atypical failed attempt of the year against the Chicago White Sox.

Based on the trajectory of the ball and how much ground Mitchell had to cover, Statcast assigned him a 40% catch probability for this play. It was far from a routine opportunity, but it’s the kind he has historically made with ease. As he usually does, Mitchell made it to the ball, but once it appeared he might need to dive for it, he slowed down and got tangled up as he reached for the catch while trying to stay on his feet. Ironically, he could have caught this one on the run had he kept closing in at full speed, but that hesitation to lay out thwarted his attempt.

Here’s a similar play from the Brewers’ last homestand against the San Diego Padres:

With just a 5% catch probability, this was a far more challenging play that required a dive to complete. The fact that Mitchell got there speaks to his athleticism and his jump on the ball. He did lay out for this one, but it was a half-hearted attempt in which he never fully left his feet. This time, the irony lay in Mitchell jamming his wrist on the awkward dive, thus injuring himself in an apparent attempt to avoid injury from a harsher landing.

Mitchell’s most egregious misplays have come on fly balls taking him back near the wall, where he has frequently pulled up to avoid a hard collision. His worst non-catch of the season also came during the Padres series, when he missed a ball with a 99% catch probability. By slowing down as he neared the warning track, he forced himself to leap backward toward the ball, and it popped out of his glove.

He had a similar issue in Miami less than a month earlier. This time, in addition to slowing down, Mitchell turned his eyes toward the wall and braced himself before making the catch, turning a would-be flyout into a triple. As another play with just a 5% catch probability, this was a challenging one, but he had already completed the hard part of getting there. It’s an opportunity an athlete of his caliber should convert.

Mitchell hasn't lost the tools of an excellent center fielder, but if he keeps failing to use them, it should become a factor in how the Brewers construct their lineups. This version of Mitchell is not demonstrably better in center than Jackson Chourio, who posted -4 DRS and 1 FRV in over 700 innings there last season. Chourio started up the middle in consecutive games on Sunday and Monday, allowing Pat Murphy to start Jake Bauers, Andrew Vaughn, and Christian Yelich in the same lineup for the best version of the Brewers’ offense.

Because of Mitchell’s upside, that may not become the permanent arrangement any time soon. Even if Chourio starts making more appearances in center, Mitchell will get semi-regular starts as long as he’s healthy and providing nearly average offense. But the longer Mitchell’s cautious approach leaves his defense lagging behind his ability, the less convincing the argument that he’s part of Milwaukee’s best starting nine.

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[keephopealive]

Two words: Luis Lara

[CA John]

Cut the guy some slack. He’s trying to stay on the field. Even with injuries, Garrett still has MVP upside. He needs to stay on the field.

Quick look back at 2020 draft:

19: PCA

20: Mitchell

21: Jordan Walker

22: Crochet

23: Bryce Jarvis

Could argue Crochet was a better pick, but PCA or Walker? 😕 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, CA John said:

Cut the guy some slack. He’s trying to stay on the field. Even with injuries, Garrett still has MVP upside. He needs to stay on the field.

Quick look back at 2020 draft:

19: PCA

20: Mitchell

21: Jordan Walker

22: Crochet

23: Bryce Jarvis

Could argue Crochet was a better pick, but PCA or Walker? 😕 

I've got to ask because you have CA in your name which I assume is California. Are you associated with Mitchell in some way?

[Ben Lepak]

2 hours ago, CA John said:

Cut the guy some slack. He’s trying to stay on the field. Even with injuries, Garrett still has MVP upside. He needs to stay on the field.

Quick look back at 2020 draft:

19: PCA

20: Mitchell

21: Jordan Walker

22: Crochet

23: Bryce Jarvis

Could argue Crochet was a better pick, but PCA or Walker? 😕 

MVP Upside?  based on what?   Also idk where you got those draft results... AI... but Crochet went 11th:  

[Chris Reinoos]

This matches how it's felt watching him play center this year. Still elite athleticism, just not finishing plays the way we've come to expect. He's also missed the cutoff man a few times, allowing baserunners to take an extra base on throws that have no chance of recording an out. It's felt off all year.

If he's not bringing his customary level of CF defense, then his floor is much lower and he feels more like a good 4th outfielder than a legit starter. Will be interesting to see how long his leash is as the unquestioned everyday CF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, Chris Reinoos said:

This matches how it's felt watching him play center this year. Still elite athleticism, just not finishing plays the way we've come to expect. He's also missed the cutoff man a few times, allowing baserunners to take an extra base on throws that have no chance of recording an out. It's felt off all year.

If he's not bringing his customary level of CF defense, then his floor is much lower and he feels more like a good 4th outfielder than a legit starter. Will be interesting to see how long his leash is as the unquestioned everyday CF.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Brewcrew82]

It's worth noting Luis Lara is considered to be arguably the best defensive CF in the minors. 

[Ron750]

I bet Brandon Lockridge will be more careful in the future. Frelick is not as reckless as he was. The best ability is availability. 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Mitchell is not spelled "MITT"chel lately. Your videos display more of his tentativeness. MLB is a tough way to make a living. His defense could overcome some of his hitting deficiencies. Now both aren't as strong as they have been. Getting the feeling he will be included in a trade at the trade deadline. Got to start playing some of these minor league savants like Luis Lara and Jet Williams. Trade Mitchell for relief pitching.

[CA John]

17 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I've got to ask because you have CA in your name which I assume is California. Are you associated with Mitchell in some way?

Nope. Just see his potential.

[CA John]

15 hours ago, Ben Lepak said:

MVP Upside?  based on what?   Also idk where you got those draft results... AI... but Crochet went 11th:  

Thanks!

[Sugarrayray]

Couldn’t agree with this article more.

However, it was really nice to see him gun down some stupid Cub to start that game the other day. Just a reminder of how dynamic he can be. Hopefully things like that put a little pep in his step going forward. That throw really zapped the foul Cubs from gaining momentum early in that game. 
 

I almost enjoy seeing the Cubs lose at home as much as I enjoy seeing the Crewers win!!!