Matching up with the Dodgers or Braves

[jay87shot]

I am writing this to show how much we likely need to add to have a chance to get to the world series. We might have to beat both team if we dont have the 1 seed.

Catcher- Contreras, Smith, Baldwin =Wash

Will Smith is having a slightly down year but is a high quality player. If you wanted to give the Brewers a slight edge I would be fine, however all 3 of these guys are allstar calibar catcher.

1B= Bauers/Vaughn, Freeman, Olsen= Disadvantage Brewers

Olsen and Freeman are stars and our guys have been good. In a 7 game series a coupke Bauers bombs are possible to even this out.

2B= Turang, Freeland/Rojas, Albies= Advantage Brewers

Albies is inconsistent but as we saw in the series a couple weeks ago always a threat. I fully expect the Dodgers to trade for a 2B like Arraez (SF rivalry iffy), Gleybar, or CJ Abrams but for now this is a solid plus for us

SS=Pratt, Mookie, Mateo/Dubon/Kim= Dodgers Advantage

Rookie is no longer playing at a superstar level but he is solid. The Braves combo has been solid, Pratt is clearly behind both.

3B= Ortiz/Hamilton, Muncie, Riley= Huge Dodger advantage

Munch has been really good this year, Riley not so much. Our platoon can hang with Riley who has not been the same guy he was early in his career.

OF= Chourio, Mitchell, Sal/Bauers (Lara)

Hernandez/Edman, Pages,Tucker

Harris, Acuna, Dubon/Yas/White

Advantage Dodgers

This one is tricky, I would call the top dogs Chourio, Acuna, Pages a split, #2 Harris, Tucker, Mitchell a disadvantage for us. Lastly I would call the 3 OF spots a split but they could go either way with trades, Edman coming back or Sal/Lara playing better.

DH=Ohtani, Yeli, Dom Smith. Massive Advantage Dodgers

Maybe Yeli can play better and close the gap.

4 man rotation= Misi, Harrison, Henderson, Sproat?

Ohtani, Yamamoto, Wrobleski, Snell/Glasnow

Sale, Strider/Lopez/Elder/Holmes/Perez

Huge advantage Dodgers, Brewers advantage over Braves.

I expect Snell and Glasnow to be healthy by the playoffs. Misi and hopefully can hang with Ohtani and Yamamoto and Sale but after that the Dodgers have a big advantage unless Henderson and Sproat get it together. Even Eric Lauer has been good for the Dodgers

Bullpen= Braves advantage

Iglesias, Suarez, and Lee have been dominant, throw in Fuentes and Dodd and that is though to beat. Megill, Uribe, Ashby can hang with Diaz, Scott, Vesia but the the Braves are a notch above.

That really only puts us above par at 2B and behind in many key areas. We can hang with the Braves but at least personnel wise we need some quality additions to compete with the Dodgers.

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

1B= Bauers/Vaughn, Freeman, Olsen= Disadvantage Brewers

Olsen and Freeman are stars and our guys have been good. In a 7 game series a coupke Bauers bombs are possible to even this out.

No doubt Freeman & Olson are the more established names at first, but the actual hitting numbers this year are remarkably close at a 136 wRC+ (8th) for the Braves, a 143 wRC+ (5th) for the Dodgers, and a 145 wRC+ (3rd) for the Brewers from their respective first basemen so far.

Olson (+3 DRS | +3 FRV) and Freeman (+1 DRS | +2 FRV) have much better numbers afield than Bauers (-5 DRS | -5 FRV) and Vaughn (-1 DRS | -1 FRV) though. 

17 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

OF= Chourio, Mitchell, Sal/Bauers (Lara)

Hernandez/Edman, Pages,Tucker

Harris, Acuna, Dubon/Yas/White

Advantage Dodgers

The seasonal OF numbers favor the Dodgers (110 wRC+ | 5.3 WAR) over the Braves (106 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR) and Brewers (105 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR).

But the Brewers also have some pretty severe OF splits with a 75 wRC+ from their outfielders thru May 3rd but a much more robust 123 wRC+ from their outfielders since May 4th when Chourio and Vaughn returned (which also freed up Bauers for more OF time with one start on the grass thru May 3rd, but nineteen since May 4th).

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

No doubt Freeman & Olson are the more established names at first, but the actual hitting numbers this year are remarkably close at a 136 wRC+ (8th) for the Braves, a 143 wRC+ (5th) for the Dodgers, and a 145 wRC+ (3rd) for the Brewers from their respective first basemen so far.

Olson (+3 DRS | +3 FRV) and Freeman (+1 DRS | +2 FRV) have much better numbers afield than Bauers (-5 DRS | -5 FRV) and Vaughn (-1 DRS | -1 FRV) though. 

The seasonal OF numbers favor the Dodgers (110 wRC+ | 5.3 WAR) over the Braves (106 wRC+ | 4.2 WAR) and Brewers (105 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR).

But the Brewers also have some pretty severe OF splits with a 75 wRC+ from their outfielders thru May 3rd but a much more robust 123 wRC+ from their outfielders since May 4th when Chourio and Vaughn returned (which also freed up Bauers for more OF time with one start on the grass thru May 3rd, but nineteen since May 4th).

Good stuff. Was going to pull this up in response to the OP, but you beat me to it and saved me the time. 

Think some people need to look past the big names of the Braves and Dodgers to a lesser extent. Brewers may lack that kind of name recognition, but their production stacks up incredibly well across the diamond (especially vis a vis the Braves). 1B and OF being among the prime examples.

[pitchleague]

I would disagree about Will Smith.  He's had a terrible year and been injured for about 40% of the first half.  When he's been healthy, he's been completely outplayed by Dalton Rushing.

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, pitchleague said:

I would disagree about Will Smith.  He's had a terrible year and been injured for about 40% of the first half.  When he's been healthy, he's been completely outplayed by Dalton Rushing.

Some of my advantage analysis is just based on feeling, Smith however hasn't been terrible. He has been average which based on is career is down. I do expect him to be better especially in a playoff series. As you pointed out Rushing is also solid. As I said, the Brewers probably have an edge but not much.

.249/338/.382 with an ops+ of 100 for Smith

 

[brooks_quichenick]

3 hours ago, pitchleague said:

I would disagree about Will Smith.  He's had a terrible year and been injured for about 40% of the first half.  When he's been healthy, he's been completely outplayed by Dalton Rushing.

I'd say he's been a bit unlucky so far:

[jay87shot]

I think the general point is that even we add say Skubal, we might still be a good ways personnel behind the Dodgers.

[Turning2]

Relying on health and the team getting hot enough at just the right time is a fool’s errand. They need a bigger, more consistent bat at 3B that makes sense financially, commitment wise etc. I don’t think that’s Paraedes. 

They should probably seek a 2nd tier starter like Ryan. Silver lining of essentially losing Woodruff is that they already have adjusted to not having him available for most of the last three years. He would have been an unexpected luxury this postseason, and one they weren’t depending on. So nothing has really changed. Same with not having Priester. So, go get a bat, and continue to evaluate Henderson, Sproat, Gasser etc as a legitimate postseason #3. If none pass muster, pursue Ryan, Gray or similar. Probably need to hunt a middle reliever too. 

[AKCheesehead]

The good news is that we don’t have to be better than them on paper, or be better at all. Just have to beat them in a postseason series.