Brewers vs Padres Open Thread: News / Notes / Predictions / Miscellaneous. What's on your Mind?

[Just Some Guy]

This is an Open thread to talk about whatever you want to talk about.

My Bold Prediction:  Brewers in 5.

My Greatest Fear:  our lack of power.  In the playoffs almost 50% of runs scored are scored on homeruns, and we don't hit any.  It's a big reason we've done so poorly in years past and it frightens me.

Reason I Think We Still Beat the Padres:  The Miz.  If he can win us games 1 and 5 then the Padres have to sweep the other 3 to beat us.

[Just Some Guy]

Game 1 winners are now 19-1 in WC series history.

[wiguy94]

Here's a comparison between the Padres top 3 relievers (Miller, Morejon, Rodriguez) and Brewers top 3 relievers (Megill, Uribe, Ashby). 

Think Padres top 3 are clearly better but the Brewers are pretty dang good themselves. 

[Brewcrew82]

On the subject of bullpens, haven't seen it really mentioned but definitely worth noting that Mason Miller has an ERA of almost 5 since August 25 including all 3 HRs he's given up this year. He gave up 4 ERs in his last two regular season appearances and was not especially sharp against the Cubs. 

Morejon has also struggled recently with an ERA of 4.5 in September. 

Still special arms fully capable of dominating, but we may not be getting them quite at their best which could be big in what should be a close series.

[yourout]

Feels like potentially an epic 5 gamer coming.

Going to come down to whoever comes up with the big clutch hits.

[Just Some Guy]

For anyone interested in tickets, as I type this SeatGeek has Game 1 seats right behind visitors dugout for $345 each.  I've been bird-dogging ticket prices the last two weeks and that's a fantastic deal.

[Just Some Guy]

Ticket prices have fallen the last 24 hours for Game 2, as well.  These prices are through tickpick.com:

[Just Some Guy]

The Brewers series price opened at -185 (65% win probability), but money flooded in on the Padres so our line's down to -166 (62% win probability).

Dodgers are -215 (68%) to beat the Braves.

[BruisedCrew]

I was expecting ticket prices on the secondary market to come down a little after the Cubs were eliminated. 

[BruisedCrew]

5 hours ago, yourout said:

Feels like potentially an epic 5 gamer coming.

Going to come down to whoever comes up with the big clutch hits.

It’s partly past history that makes me feel this way, but I think if the Brewers win this series it’s going to be by winning the 3 home games. That’s how they beat the Angels in the ALCS in 1982, the DBacks in 2011, and the Cubs last year.

Put another way, the Brewers have never won a playoff series in which they lost a home game. That might be even more likely this year because of the starting pitching rotation. The Brewers’ best chances are going to be when Misiorowski and Henderson start, which figures to be games 1, 2, and 5. 

[SF70]

SD is the 3rd best team in these playoffs and the Brewers are going to have to win at home to advance, imo.

SD’s offense has been the best in baseball for an extended period of time and the Miz & Henderson need to pitch deep so MKE can use their top 3-4 relievers to close out their games, saving the rest of their pen for their bullpen games.

[Frisbee Slider]

Bold but objective take, if you compare position strength, San Diego is only better than Milwaukee in RF with Tatis Jr. At first base, Ty France is way better than I thought but I wouldn't want him more than Bauers/Vaughn. 

Joey Ortiz had a better second half than Machado.

Cooper Pratt outperforms Xander Bogarts. 

Even with hot streaks, the Brewers are hotter.

In aggregate, bullpens are a wash. 

[BruisedCrew]

38 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Bold but objective take, if you compare position strength, San Diego is only better than Milwaukee in RF with Tatis Jr. At first base, Ty France is way better than I thought but I wouldn't want him more than Bauers/Vaughn. 

Joey Ortiz had a better second half than Machado.

Cooper Pratt outperforms Xander Bogarts. 

Even with hot streaks, the Brewers are hotter.

In aggregate, bullpens are a wash. 

One counter to this is the value of veteran players. For example, Ortiz and Pratt may have better numbers than Machado and Bogaerts for part of this season, but veteran players with lots of playoff experience often come up big in clutch situations.

I don’t care what kind of a season he’s had, but I don’t want to see someone like Freddie Freeman up in a key situation in a playoff game. The same might go for Machado.

Austin Riley has been pretty blah this season, but he had what might end up being the single biggest hit of the playoffs.

[Just Some Guy]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

On the subject of bullpens, haven't seen it really mentioned but definitely worth noting that Mason Miller has an ERA of almost 5 since August 25 including all 3 HRs he's given up this year. He gave up 4 ERs in his last two regular season appearances and was not especially sharp against the Cubs. 

Morejon has also struggled recently with an ERA of 4.5 in September. 

Still special arms fully capable of dominating, but we may not be getting them quite at their best which could be big in what should be a close series.

MM's basically unhittable.  He faced 273 batters this year and gave up only 5 extra base hits, a slugging percentage against of .201 -- slugging percentage against. 

We're not going to score on him; we'll need to be ahead and keep him off the field.  

I wouldn't personally go this far, but earlier this year, the Athletic argued he's the most unhittable pitcher EVER:  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7244775/2026/05/01/mason-miller-stats-padres-closer-mlb-history/

[RobertCrawley]

My question: Will Yeli be in the starting lineup.

[Vgmastr]

After this series there will only be four NL teams left that the Brewers haven't faced in the playoffs.

[Just Some Guy]

12 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

My question: Will Yeli be in the starting lineup.

[Key the drums of doom in the background]

An excellent question and I think I fear the answer.  The Padres haven't announced a starter yet, but right handers Walker Buehler and Michael King are being considered......

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Brewers in 3.

[markedman5]

 

[markedman5]

24 minutes ago, Just Some Guy said:

[Key the drums of doom in the background]

An excellent question and I think I fear the answer.  The Padres haven't announced a starter yet, but right handers Walker Buehler and Michael King are being considered......

If they are seriously consider pitching King on 3 days rest when he can pitch game 2 and game 5 on 4 days rest they are idiots.

[Brewcrew82]

Forget Yeli, Frelick starting games will hurt us more at this point, and I fear it's going to happen based on "experience" and how much Murph loves the guy. 

Not only is he swinging a wet noodle these days, but he literally can't throw from RF. 

[owbc]

Miz against Walker Buehler??? That has to be one of the biggest game 1 pitching mismatches in the history of the postseason. 

 

[Just Some Guy]

54 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

If they are seriously consider pitching King on 3 days rest when he can pitch game 2 and game 5 on 4 days rest they are idiots.

My guess on that is they'd use King for a short start tomorrow, then they'd have him on full rest for game 5?

I might be wrong about this, but isn't there a day between starts when a pitcher throws a bullpen session?  Would tomorrow be approximately that day for King?

[Just Some Guy]

2 minutes ago, owbc said:

Miz against Walker Buehler??? That has to be one of the biggest game 1 pitching mismatches in the history of the postseason. 

 

Lol, yeah that's definitely the "we surrender game 1" approach.

[markedman5]

25 minutes ago, Just Some Guy said:

My guess on that is they'd use King for a short start tomorrow, then they'd have him on full rest for game 5?

I might be wrong about this, but isn't there a day between starts when a pitcher throws a bullpen session?  Would tomorrow be approximately that day for King?

Tomorrow is 3 days rest……..not sure why anyone would start him on short rest and curtail his innings when you can have him fully rested in game 2 and game 5 if needed.

 

I will be shocked if they do that.