Will Turnbow be back?

[logan82]

Mota is really sticking in my craw, that's the one I am struggling with.

 

BTW-- I think Mota qualifies as one of those "out of LF acquisitions" -- I don't recall anyone here

suggesting him as a target.

Yeah I don't really like that pick up either. I still see it more as dumping Estrada than an attempt to pick up anything useful.

[Fatter than Joey]

I still see it more as dumping Estrada

 

We could just have non-tendered Estrada

[hauser42]

Adding Mota now helps the bullpen since Coco left for the Reds. Mota a couple of years was considered a top end set up guy. Maddux could easily get him back to form and have another find for Doug Melvin.

[logan82]

We could just have non-tendered Estrada

True, but at least we got something.

[Fatter than Joey]

True, but at least we got something.

 

"Sometimes, dead is bettah" - Jud Crandall, Pet Sematary

[crewcrazy]

crewcrazy,

 

thank you for posting the game log for others to see. I remembered (others have too) that overall he was just fine--but when it rained it poured.

 

Here's the question I have for you, though. How many of those games when he was charged with 0 runs/earned runs did he allow an inherited runner to score? In other words, how many times did he come into games and didn't allow a run to score at all, regardless if it was charged to him or another pitcher?

I couldn't find game logs with inherited runners and inherited runs scored, but I was able to find that Turnbow had 8 appearances this year where he entered with runners on, with a total of 14 inherited runners. 12 of those 14 ended up scoring. What I couldn't find, though, was how many of those appearances were appearances where he escaped with 0 ER or how many he did end up giving up runs of his own. Regardless of that, he had a pretty crappy ratio.

It seems like somewhat of a fluke, though, when you look at his past totals:

YEAR - IS/IR

2006 - 1/14

2005 - 2/15

2004 - 1/2 (6 IP in ANA)

2003 - 0/0 (15 IP in ANA)

2002 - 5/16 (38 IP in ANA)

 

Just taking a guess here, but IS/IR probably isn't a good predictor stat because it can change wildly from year to year. It's fun to look at, though.

[logan82]

True, but at least we got something.

 

"Sometimes, dead is bettah" - Jud Crandall, Pet Sematary

More arms to throw against the wall and see if they stick. We aren't exactly strapped for cash next year as our players are young. 2-3 years from now I would be very averse to $3.2M for a questionable reliever, but not next year. If this was more than a 1-year comintment I would have a huge problem with it. At least if it is a mistake, it will be gone after 2008.

[pitchleague]

Just taking a guess here, but IS/IR probably isn't a good predictor stat because it can change wildly from year to year. It's fun to look at, though.

yup, I agree that it's not great for predicting. I was just curious to have a "fun" look at the information. Thanks for finding something for me. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Postseason2006]

What cracks me up is that if someone had talked about Mota before he got here, you'd all be saying forget that bum. No he's here and we think he's good. The same goes for Tblow. That's great that he can pitch with runners not on base but what about when the BP implodes and he's forced to come in after a 6-2 lead disintegrates into 6-5 with a runner on? Sorry, but a guy that can only pitch with no runner's on is not closer material.

 

Melvin is a horrible GM and after watching some of these trades he's made, thinks he should hang em up.

 

Ray King should not and better not make this roster. The guy showed nothing when he came back last year. His next career should be hanging on a X mas tree because he's going to get lit up.

[twobrewers]

Melvin is a horrible GM and after watching some of these trades he's made, thinks he should hang em up.

I don't mean to pick on you in particular - but as a fan base this is getting a little ridiculous. We booed our own players mercilessly last year. We boo players who we cut last year. We are jumping on and off the bandwagon so fast that the tires are worn out. After every move, this entire board needs to be talked down from a ledge.

 

We have Prince Fielder. We have Ryan Braun. We have Rickie Weeks. We have Yovanni Gallardo. We have Corey Hart. We have Carlos Villanueva. We have JJ Harty. We have Bill Hall.

 

This is quite possibly the most exciting baseball team that has ever played in Milwaukee. How about we take some time to be thankful for the team we do have. Everyone on our team won't be an all-star. Everyone will have some struggles at some point.

 

I believe it was billhallfan who said it best..."As for me, I'm a Brewer fan."

[lukevan]

Turnbow will most likely be on the team unless he's included in a multi-player deal.

Turnbow will NOT be our closer in 2008. DM acquired Cordero because he couldn't trust TBow as a closer anymore. Even though Turnbow wasn't that bad in 07, he had enough blow-up moments to keep Melvin from relying on him. I imagine Derrick will settle into middle relief behind two of the relief acquisitions we make this offseason via trade for one of our starting pitchers. I agree with those that think Matt Wise will be back next season. There's no sense trading Turnbow. If we thought we could get Otsuka for Tony Gwynn Jr, what do you think the return for Turnbow would be? Maybe a prospect or UTIL IF?

Where's Dennis Sarfate?

[sveumrules]

i'm with twobrewers.

 

it isn't even the winter meetings yet. give melvin some time and trust the moustache. quick melvin review...

 

sexson deal? success (had to move him, got a haul)

s podsednik deal? success (scotty p looking for work, c lee cashing big checks)

overbay deal? success (had to make way for prince, still received value in gross bush)

c lee deal? success (c lee wasn't signing, we got bp stability for 1 1/2 season and picks)

 

now the last two big deals aren't looking so good, i will admit. davis for vargas/estrada is looking like it favors the d backs and i do think melvin panicked a little and didn't get full value for inman, but on the whole his track record in milwaukee is pretty impressive. plus the six high picks we have in june will go along way to stocking the system and i have even more faith in jack z than in the 'stache.

 

as for turnbow, he'll definitely be back and he'll be lights out in about 70% of his appearances and be really shaky in the other 30%, but he's a relief pitcher so that's to be expected. remember, these guys aren't good enough to start. when he blows up it's normally huge, walk-related and in critical situations so he gets more nonsense from the fickle bandwagon riders than he deserves. a

[aracko]

Turnbow is the man now - like it or not. He is by far the best guy we have for the job, Unless Vargas gets a shot.

[recte44]

I'm sure Turnbow will be back. He had as good of a season as Cordero in some secondary categories. Closers are always overrated. Melvin's been saying this ever since he came on board. Maddux and Turnbow will be spending a lot of time together this winter, I'd guess.

[strawbossisevil]

Why are people acting like the offseason is over already? Turnbow may be our closer, if we don't pick up anyone more capable in the next 4 months. Seriously, we've got a long time yet before the team has to decide who is playing what role in our bullpen. Let's be patient and wait until time makes things a bit clearer before jumping off of bridges.

[Team Canada]

Melvin is a horrible GM and after watching some of these trades he's made, thinks he should hang em up.

I don't mean to pick on you in particular - but as a fan base this is getting a little ridiculous. We booed our own players mercilessly last year. We boo players who we cut last year. We are jumping on and off the bandwagon so fast that the tires are worn out. After every move, this entire board needs to be talked down from a ledge.

 

We have Prince Fielder. We have Ryan Braun. We have Rickie Weeks. We have Yovanni Gallardo. We have Corey Hart. We have Carlos Villanueva. We have JJ Harty. We have Bill Hall.

 

This is quite possibly the most exciting baseball team that has ever played in Milwaukee. How about we take some time to be thankful for the team we do have. Everyone on our team won't be an all-star. Everyone will have some struggles at some point.

 

I believe it was billhallfan who said it best..."As for me, I'm a Brewer fan."

 

If that wasn't so long, I'd make it my sig.

[logan82]

Melvin is a horrible GM and after watching some of these trades he's made, thinks he should hang em up.

I don't mean to pick on you in particular - but as a fan base this is getting a little ridiculous. We booed our own players mercilessly last year. We boo players who we cut last year. We are jumping on and off the bandwagon so fast that the tires are worn out. After every move, this entire board needs to be talked down from a ledge.

 

We have Prince Fielder. We have Ryan Braun. We have Rickie Weeks. We have Yovanni Gallardo. We have Corey Hart. We have Carlos Villanueva. We have JJ Harty. We have Bill Hall.

 

This is quite possibly the most exciting baseball team that has ever played in Milwaukee. How about we take some time to be thankful for the team we do have. Everyone on our team won't be an all-star. Everyone will have some struggles at some point.

 

I believe it was billhallfan who said it best..."As for me, I'm a Brewer fan."

I disagree completley. We wore out the shocks not the tires.

[cruiserx43]

I guess while I am not the biggest Tbow fan, I think he has good value in our bullpen. He does provide a white knuckle ride every time he makes an appearance, but how many games did I have to watch Ned let him give up run after run or just walk the bases full? And that's the problem. At times I feel like Ned left TBow in there because he felt he had no better option (and I am not sure he did). He cannot pitch with inherited runners, I think this has been debated enough and for whomever becomes the closer the bullpen as a whole needs to be better if the closer is to be effective.

[afeter]

The last time Turnbow was the closer was 2006.

 

In July, August, and September of that year, he allowed 30 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings and was 1 for 15 in save opportunities. He forced the trade of Carlos Lee by singlehandidly taking the Brewers out of the race that year.

 

Nothing he did in 2007 (when Yost had to stop using him the last 2 weeks) convinces me that he won't revert to that again in the closer's role. That it's even being discussed makes me nuts.

---1 for 15 WOW. This guy doesn't belong in the major leagues until he can throw a strike. People please try and remember watching him pitch. There were countless times when the entire state of wisconsin (sans Ned) knew he wasn't going to throw strike on a 2 or 3 ball count. I love his stuff but without control he is nothing. Right now, i say don't define the closer -- play the hot hand.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Can the mods either merge just the title of the Trade Rumors "Turnbow new closer..." thread or the whole thread into this one? Maybe I'm the only one, but that thread seemed pretty good.