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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    One more thing about the value of the bullpen versus the value of a hitter. Over the course of 162 games, a hitter is going to have more value. I'd argue that in the playoffs, a reliever is just as valuable and the bullpen as a whole is more valuable. Why? In the playoffs the bullpen is going to throw every pitch from at least the 6th inning on, often more. A hitter will see 15 maybe 20 pitches the whole game. Only aces such as Burnes and Woodruff will be allowed to go through the lineup a 3rd time; 3rd/4th starters rarely will. When hitters see a pitcher for the third time they have the advantage of seeing the pitcher multiple times and the pitcher getting tired. In the playoffs there are far fewer instances of a starter facing a tired pitcher for a third time and many more instances of a hitter facing a fresh pitcher for the first time. A strong, deep bullpen creates an advantage that is seen much more in the playoffs than the regular season. Juan Soto has an OPS of 1.112 the third time he faces a starting pitcher in a game. The second time, an .852 OPS. The first time? .728 OPS. Yes, he has a .958 OPS vs. a reliever but that is all relievers (including mop-up bullpen guys he'll never face in the playoffs) and a .958 OPS is better than that 1.112 OPS seeing a starter for the 3rd time. Put another way, Soto has an OPS of .720 in innings 1-3, 1.112 in innings 4-6, and .890 in innings 7-9. A good, deep bullpen neutralizes that 1.112 in innings 4-6.
  2. LouisEly
    Yes, Twitter is where the intellectual baseball savants reside.
  3. LouisEly
    STL ranks by position according to B-R.com (MIL in parenthesis) SP: 15th (18th) RP: 26th (12th) C : 26th (8th) 1B: 1st (17th) 2B: 3rd (12th) 3B: 1st (8th) SS: 10th (14th) LF: 16th (8th) CF: 12th (23rd... but Taylor is 0.8 bWAR in 260 PAs, and STL traded their 1.2 WAR starting CF) RF: 10th (6th) DH: 7th (10th) I don't recall STL addressing RP or C. For the advantage they have at 1B, 2B, and 3B, the Brewers have the advantage at RP, C, LF.
  4. LouisEly
    What position(s) has Peters played this season, what % of the time has he spent at each position, and what opportunity is there at those positions? (Hint, it's not a position that's difficult to find offensive production.) And hasn't Ruiz been nothing short of excellent all season long at AAA and CF (versus A+ and LF)?
  5. LouisEly
    B- The Brewers best opportunity is to try to replicate the 2015 Royals and turn it into a 5-6 inning game. As I said in another thread, with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, and Lauer, those are going to be really tough 5-6 innings for opponents. They added a couple of guys who can help solidify innings 6-7 to get to Williams/Rogers. I agree with people sleeping on Limet - look at what he did just two years ago. The two "worst" spots on the team in terms of relative production are CF (23rd) and SP (18th). Getting Peralta and Ashby back has addressed SP. But my guess is that PIT wanted too much to move Reynolds and BAL wanted too much to move Mullins who were likely the only significant upgrades out there. But were they significant upgrades? Reynolds this season has 1.5 bWAR and 1.2 fWAR in 356 PAs. Tyrone Taylor has 0.8 bWAR/0.8 fWAR in 262 PAs; extend that to Reynolds' 356 PAs and it projects to 1.1 WAR. Is that worth mortgaging at least two of Frelick/Mitchell/Weimer/Turang plus at least two other top-20 prospects? Frelick/Mitchell/Weimer are going to AAA likely to see if any of them can be that CF upgrade. The Brewers are a run prevention team. We have to live with that. It isn't sexy, but 2-1 wins count just as much as 6-3 wins.
  6. LouisEly
    Peters has predominantly played LF with a handful of innings at RF and had yet to make the transition to AA. If he's limited defensively to LF, there won't be an opening at the ML level for a long time and they have an equivalent player in Noah Campbell at AA.
  7. LouisEly
    So did the Royals in 2015. Make it a 5-6 inning game, and with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Ashby, and Lauer, those are going to be damn tough 5-6 innings for the other team.
  8. LouisEly
    At this point, keep him on the DL and see if he has anything, add him in September. My guess is that SF is picking up most of his salary.
  9. LouisEly
    Both relatively small samples: Beeter in AA: 66 IP, 15.0 K/9, 5.7 BB/9. 1.6 HR/9, in AA in his second pro season Small in AA: 41.1 IP, 14.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9, in AA in his second pro season (*not including 2020) They gave up someone who, at this point in a relatively small sample, has worse control and gives up a lot more HRs than Ethan Small.
  10. LouisEly
    They're not playing at Dudley Field anymore. Or even Cohen Stadium.
  11. LouisEly
    Over his last nine games against the Brewers from 2019-2022 he has pitched 43.2 IP and given up 25 ER and 8 HR to the tune of a 5.15 ERA. This isn't 2017.
  12. LouisEly
    Let's not ignore that surgery. Kelly carries injury risk with a surgery that is often unsuccessful. Not sure what the career lifespan is for those who do have that surgery, but it does carry added risk. Remember, risk has to be discounted and Kelly carries both injury risk and developmental risk (he has yet to prove himself above A-ball).
  13. LouisEly
    It is so on-brand for the Cleveland Browns to send six draft picks including three first round draft picks to a team for a player on the verge of being suspended. Six games... say goodbye to your 2022 season.
  14. LouisEly
    I'll take it a step further and say that no way the Brewers move Hader until the off-season unless a very good reliever with closer experience is coming back in the deal.
  15. LouisEly
    Maybe we call this the Roster Movement Speculation thread? And per that tweet, he didn't necessarily say when they were getting promoted...
  16. LouisEly
    I think that it's as simple as the Brewers don't make this deal without Rogers coming back. In fact, without another very good reliever/closer coming back the Brewers don't trade Hader unitl the offseason. The Padres might have been the only team that the Brewers would have traded Hader to.
  17. LouisEly
    If all you knew about a guy is that as a 23-year-old CF in 374 PAs between AA and AAA he had a .467 OBP, a 52:65 BB:K ratio, and 13 HRs, what type of a prospect would you say that he is? Granted, that is in the Texas League and the PCL, but OBP plays anywhere. Looks like he's put a lot of work into pitch recognition and strike zone management as his BB:K ratio has improved dramatically over the last 3 years.
  18. LouisEly
    Of the ones left, I'm hoping for Lege. Definitely need 3B in the system.
  19. LouisEly
    One thing that complicates this is that Jonathan Davis doesn't have any options remaining and has been outrighted before. If the Brewers release him, given the dearth of CF options available and his performance this season, it's possible someone may claim him. If Gallo continues to stink up the joint, then they may have to start the clock on Mitchell or Frelick early. Mitchell doesn't have to be added to the 40-man until after next season, Frelick not until after the 2024 season but will likely be up in 2024, and since they likely won't break camp with the team next year will need to burn an option next year. It also means one less person they can protect in the Rule 5 draft over the winter because they don't need to protect Mitchell or Frelick yet. Moving/releasing Severino is an option, but teams like to have a 3rd catcher in September for PH/PR purposes and Severino can be a PH vs LHRP. He also has one year of control left where Narvaez doesn't and will need him next year if they feel like Feliciano and Alex Jackson aren't the answer. The Brewers need to be sure that Gallo is an upgrade as if he isn't it could have several ramifications on the team.
  20. LouisEly
    With the off days I'm wondering if the plan is to give the rest of the rotation an extra day of rest to keep them strong for the home stretch.
  21. LouisEly
    Regarding relievers, they have Peralta, Houser, Cousins, and Topa coming back soon which will push the Strzylecki's/Gott's/Gustave's/Suter's off of the roster or push them into mop-up duty, so I can understand not picking up a reliever.
  22. LouisEly
    It's too bad that he, like Noah Campbell, seems to be limited defensively to LF. He's played a little RF, but before Chourio got there they were playing Cipion in RF.
  23. LouisEly
    Anyone else surprised that since the beginning of may his WHIP has been under 1.000? In his last 22 games he's given up 6 hits and 7 walks. Seems like he's putting people on base in every outing.
  24. LouisEly
    Ya know, there's already a thread about this. ? So far, the service is good. They allow you to switch from by-the-gig to unlimited on a month-to-month basis, so if you're going to be traveling and using a lot of data you can switch to unlimited for a month. However, the Samsung Galaxy A13 they provided is a piece of junk. If you have a Pixel phone you'll probably be OK.
  25. LouisEly
    I do not see Laureano as an upgrade over Taylor
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