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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    1) The Angels have $70M coming off the books this off-season. They can take on $20M/year and not even blink. B) If the Brewers could replace Braun's production with less salary, then it would make sense to trade him and eat salary. But they can't replace Braun's production with less salary. Where are they going to get .900 OPS from? They aren't giving that kind of production away. 3) Braun's contract isn't anywhere close to being bad. On a $/WAR basis, he's pretty much average, and was a bargain the last two years.
  2. LouisEly
    My one concern with Ramirez is how many innings he's pitched this year after not having pitched for 5-6 years. Fifth most innings on Biloxi this year.
  3. LouisEly
    Another strong outing for Owenby. If I had gone past 50, he would have been #51 on my prospect list. They don't have the top-end guys, but they have a lot of potential major leaguers in their system.
  4. LouisEly
    Just letting you know here I'm going to steal that line from you for Twitter-purposes. And I'm rounding up to 47%! Thanks! Did you at least give me credit? In the minors it rounded up to 47%, but when including the majors it was 46% pretty much right on the dot.
  5. LouisEly
    I'd bet Rivera or Espino DFA with Suter sent down.
  6. LouisEly
    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects Just updated: #15 - Lewis Brinson #67 - Corey Ray #79 - Luis Ortiz #91 - Woodruff #92 - Keston Hiura #96 - Isan Diaz Interesting to note that none of the top 8 overall were drafted - all international free agents. Discuss.
  7. LouisEly
    Ramirez and Berberet are recent converts to pitching, and Ramirez has had a heck of a season at AA. I'd be shocked if Ramirez isn't back. Same with Barrios - another late pitching convert who looked good pumping upper 90's heat (and that was using the old measurement). I don't see them giving up on him. I wouldn't want to give up on Nolin either. Hard to believe that Houle is only 23. Like many others, Colorado Springs hasn't been kind to Ramsey but the 11.3 K/9 is hard to let walk. Peralta and Cravy have talent but need a change of scenery. Cravy pitched so well out of the bullpen last year (the two spot starts didn't go well), and it's so hard to prove yourself as a pitcher at CS, that I don't think he'll get a chance here.
  8. LouisEly
    Since he's been called up to Biloxi, Jake Gatewood has played every game at 3B. Wilkerson with another gem. 46% of Brett Phillips' hits this year have been for extra bases.
  9. LouisEly
    Great job as always. But Brandon Woodward? I'm kind of with Never Outhustled on this one. Looking back at my list, the one who I have ahead of Ray that I probably should not have is Ponce. But you could make a good argument for Dubon (same age, AAA), T. Clark (much younger, same level but better production, 1st round pick), Bickford (at A+ as 20-year-old, 1st round pick), Peralta (younger, better numbers at higher level), T. Williams (better numbers, higher level, highly regarded), I. Diaz (younger, same level), K. Hiura (#9 overall pick), B. Phillips (same age, majors), and then it gets really hard to argue Ray over Burnes, Ortiz, Brinson, Hader, and Woodruff. I think you could also make a good argument for M. Harrison being ahead of Ray too - he wasn't a 1st round pick likely due to his college football commitment, and he got 1st round money to sign, so the talent and certainly athleticism are there too. In reality, Ray could easily and maybe should be ranked in the high teens. Athleticism is nice, but job #1 is to hit the baseball. If you can't do that, it doesn't matter. I think it was Mass who posted a scouting report on Ray and Clark yesterday or the day before, and it wasn't flattering for either. Had both as a 50. But just about everyone is struggling there, so I wonder how good of a hitting coach they have there.
  10. LouisEly
    Bugs. Literally. Since I've moved into my place 7 weeks ago, about once a week I see these bugs that look like a cross between a spider and a centipede/caterpillar. They have lots of legs, some feelers in front and back, but are really skinny and they scoot pretty quickly. Kind of a dark orange-ish color. Usually about 1.5" long, but the biggest ones have been close to 2". What's weird is that I'm on the 4th floor - they have to crawl a ways up to get to my place. I almost always see them in a basin - a sink or a tub, but today there was one in an open garbage can in my master bathroom. What are they, and how do I get rid of them?
  11. LouisEly
    [sarcasm]Remember, Garza is a selfish jerk who thinks only of himself. That makes him a bad baseball player, deems his stats relative to other players irrelevant, and explains why he led a team meeting last night to give the young players a pep talk.[/sarcasm]
  12. LouisEly
    I'm not sure when or how it was determined that OPB is more important than SLG, but from a team standpoint about a year ago I did an analysis of the past 5 or 10 years of team data and SLG had a slightly higher correlation to runs scored than OBP.
  13. LouisEly
    Bruce has a marginally higher OPS (.868) vs. RHP than either Braun (.859) or Santana (.819). Most pitchers are RH. Citi Field is also a pitcher-friendly park; Bruce's away OPS is .915 while his home OPS is .763. The notion that he isn't very good is patently false. Why they aren't expensive? None of us knows. Salary is a component. But Bruce isn't the only OF that didn't command much in trade value - any notion that J.D. Martinez (season OPS of 1.008!) isn't very good is a far worse conclusion than anything Briggs posted in this tread. I think the reason they don't command much is that it isn't difficult to find corner OF, and that is the main reason why I have been questioning spending so many high draft picks on OFs. People say, "Oh, they can just trade them, take the best player"; well, if OFs are easy to find, there won't be a need for them. Simple supply and demand economics - high supply of OFs + marginal deman = low price. That's why, IMO, they aren't expensive.
  14. LouisEly
    I think what TJseven7 is getting at is the chances of scoring one run, if that is what is needed late in a game. Expected runs is a weighted sum of: 0 runs x (probability of scoring zero) + 1 run x (probability of scoring 1 run) + 2 runs x (probability of scoring 2 runs)... etc. The bunt reduces the probability of scoring 2+ runs, which decreases expected runs. But what is the probability of scoring 1 run when bunting? If by bunting it reduces the probability of scoring 0 runs or increases the probability of scoring one run, and one run is what you need late in a game, then the analytics would justify that. Agree with this whole-heartedly. There was quite a debate here many years ago about the risk/return/value of stolen bases, and/or the value of a "fast" player. What was never included in the discussion is the OPS of the players batting after said fast player when said fast player is on base. To evaluate the value of a player such as Juan Pierre, yes his career OPS was only .704, but I want to know what the delta in OPS is for players batting after him when he is on base versus not on base. Does speed cause a pitcher to be more predictable or make more mistakes? That is the variable that I want to know.
  15. LouisEly
    Harrison's career line is almost identical to Hernan Perez's last two seasons, and Perez has as much versatility as Harrison. Obviously Perez would not command that type of return in trade, and his salary is a fraction of Harrison's and Perez is under control through 2020. Why would Harrison cost that much?
  16. LouisEly
    My hope is that Harrison, Clark, and Ray get split up next year, simply because all three can't play CF on the same team at the same time. It's a good problem to have, but I think the problem that it creates is that having them on the same team means they can't showcase their defensive skills in CF when scouts for other teams come to watch them. I think the Brewers sold Cordell low because he was relegated to corner OF due to having Brinson and Phillips on the same team. People said Cordell wasn't anything special, but I think it was because many people were looking at him through the lens of a corner OF. He was a CF prior to being acquired by MIL; he's played more games/innings at CF than any other position. I think we see this with Clark; I forget that he's been a CF until this year, and like others I have been prone to judging him as a corner OF. The Brewers are going to have to trade some of those guys sooner rather than later, and I think scouts will have a hard time evaluating their true value if they can't play CF because of a logjam at the position.
  17. LouisEly
    For the first sentence, these things are important to me. I don't really care how knowledgeable someone is, if they're boring I'd rather have someone exciting who is less knowledgeable (and gets the damn name right, that's your job). Overall though, we're pretty spoiled. Especially radio - Uecker, Wayne Larrivee for Packers games, before him Max McGee and Jim Irwin for years, and I love Lepay, especially for UW radio sports. Those are some really talented, engaging, and entertaining announcers. (I still remember listening to Irwin and McGee call a Packers-Bears game. The Packers were creaming them, and the Bears put in their 3rd string QB Peter Tom (P.T.) Willis. McGee says, on the air, "Who the hell is P.T. Willis?") I couldn't stand listening to the Yankees announcers, and that was by halfway through the first game.
  18. LouisEly
    Getting back to the original topic, the next step of the winning formula is to use this offseason to move some guys from positions of depth. There won't be a roster crunch after this offseason, but there will be next offseason. I've posted before about the ridiculous OF depth in the system, particularly CF (Broxton, Brinson, Phillips, T. Clark, Ray, Z. Clark, and to a lesser extent Stokes, T. Taylor, and Cordell was a CF until the Brewers acquired him; then add in corner OFs Braun and Santana). Maybe not this past trade deadline, but this offseason they need to figure out a way to parlay some of that into some upgrades. The Brewers don't have any glaring weaknesses that don't have upper-level prospects ready to step in. Debate Villar, but you have Dubon at AAA, and then there is Hader, Woodruff, and in a year or so Ortiz and Burnes to shore up SP. But I do think they should take a few of those prospects and package them with current players to upgrade at positions (2B, SP, RP). What I think will happen is that Stearns will look to move some guys who have some value but not necessarily room on this team (Broxton, Garza, Jungmann, Wilkerson). Recycle those guys for some A-ball talent that doesn't need to be protected for a couple of years, or package them with other players for upgrades. Those guys aren't stars, but they are productive players at cheap or league minimum salaries, and that has value in the market.
  19. LouisEly
    Remember, knee injuries are really tough on catchers.
  20. LouisEly
    Gatewood has played 11 games and 95 innings at 3B this season, and started there as recently as July 29th. They haven't completely given up on him as a 3B. SS, no, but the door isn't shut at 3B. If Erceg wasn't on the same team, I'd wonder how much more he would have played at 3B. The vision correction might help the fielding too. As I mentioned in the other thread, Gatewood has really tapered off since the hot start. Sub-.700 OPS in June and July, and now under .800 for the season. Thus Gatewood is barely cracking my top-25. Yamamoto is very interesting, as is Zack Brown. Both were just outside my top 25. But that is more of a function of there being very, very little difference between #20 and #35 or so on my list and my preference for giving more weight to production above A-ball. You'll see Hauser, Derby, Nick Ramirez, and Wang above them (for now) because they've had success at AA/AAA. Medeiros is almost the anti-Gatewood, as he has been getting better lately. Really has made strides the last month or so. I'm more positive on Medeiros than Gatewood. There's always a lot of "shiny new object" syndrome going on in these threads - excitement over rookie ball players who haven't had the opportunity to fail yet. Human nature.
  21. LouisEly
    I put this question in the prospect poll discussion thread but I'm not sure that Harrison will not have taken the bigger step forward (over gatewood) this year when it's all over. I don't think some have noticed how much Gatewood has struggled since May. June OPS - .654 July - .697 OPS now under .800 for the season. Two more really good outings for Nick Ramirez and Owenby. Ramirez only needed 34 pitches to get through 3 innings. Both guys could be legitimate future LHRPs.
  22. LouisEly
    I'll say, evidence is in this threat. Some jump right to his velocity this year versus last year. I say, why is his velocity down? I'm a root cause type of person (Lean Six Sigma - "the five why's"), and there is a reason why his velocity is down but he's in his physical prime. Statistics can almost always find an explanation... but what's the reason behind the statistics? If you've been around here long enough, you know the story of my friend Jak Kraus. You look at that OPS in rookie ball, and then Beloit, and then Stockton, and the immediate reaction of many is "college player... dominates rookie ball because lower level of competition... old for his league... never had the upside... small sample...". What you don't see is that he got off to a terrible start in Beloit... because he found out his girlfriend was pregnant, and then under pressure proposed to her. He was a little distracted. But after he got that behind him and his mind right he went on a tear and finished strong... until he broke his arm in a collision at 1B. Thus only played 86 games. He was promoted to Stockton... where he was 2000 miles from his wife and kid. And wasn't making any money. And his wife reminded him constantly of all those things. The stress caused him to play poorly, and he hung it up and went home. He didn't have the power, but he had a sweet swing and a great eye. Career 90 BBs to 59 Ks in 708 career PAs. I'm sure the stats would have found something with his swing-and-miss %, line drive %, etc. But that wasn't the cause.
  23. LouisEly
    I thought his 2nd pitch was a clearer strike than ball 4
  24. LouisEly
    I tend to give more weight to production at AA/AAA than potential in rookie ball. Generally I cut off at 27, but because Nick Ramirez just switched to pitching (and is doing so well) I'll make an exception for him. And because it's his birthday today. He isn't new to pitching - he was the closer at Cal State Fullerton, a pretty predominant college program. But that is why you don't see Wilkerson on my list; if he were 26 he'd definitely be top 20, maybe top 15. Other teams have better talent 1-10, but I'd put the Brewers 11-30 up against any team.
  25. LouisEly
    Let's see if I can count down from 50 without screwing up. 50. L. Ernesto 49. T. Neuhaus 48. C. McClanahan 47. B. Webb 46. P. Henry 45. C. Lemons 44. G. Garcia 43. C. Herrera 42. K. Wren 41. K.J. Harrison 40. A. Ventura 39. J. Lopez 38. QT-C 37. N. Kirby 36. J. Perrin 35. Z. Clark 34. C. Coulter 33. Z. Brown 32. W-C. Wang 31. J. Yamamoto 30. T. Stokes 29. Y. Barrios 28. N. Ramirez 27. B. Derby 26. J. Pennington And the top 25: 25. A. Hauser 24. M. Feliciano 23. J. Gatewood 22. T. Supak 21. M. Diplan 20. J. Nottingham 19. T. Lutz 18. K. Medeiros 17. M. Harrison 16. C. Ray 15. L. Erceg 14. M. Dubon 13. C. Ponce 12. T. Clark 11. P. Bickford 10. F. Peralta 9. T. Williams 8. I. Diaz 7. K. Hiura 6. B. Phillips 5. C. Burnes 4. L. Ortiz 3. L. Brinson 2. J. Hader 1. B. Woodruff
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