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endaround

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Everything posted by endaround

  1. endaround
    Yes, thank god the Brewers didn't do this. Otherwise they could never afford the next McCutchen.
  2. endaround
    Not sure how trading Wong for a replacement level pitcher making $8 million makes any sense for the Brewers.
  3. endaround
    Or teams realize that ERA is a terrible stat. Eflin had FIP of 3.68 and 3.56 in 2021 and 2022. Yes he has some risk, but if he can get to 150 innings the Rays likely think they have a 2.5 to 3.0 win pitcher. Now decent chance that may not happen but that is why he didn't cost too much given he's going to be 29 next season. Every time a league average pitcher gets a league average contract this place goes weird. Lauer has FIPS of 4.04 and 4.50 that past two years. Houser 4.33 and 4.21. So no I don't think this means their value has gone through the roof. It is what has been before these contracts.
  4. endaround
    This is just not true. There are more really good QBs right now than at anytime that I can remember.
  5. endaround
    Tellez Steamer projection: wRC+ 123. Basically his power remains but his BABIP gets back to a decent .258 instead of .215. Abreau wRC+ 126 Bell wRC+ 123 The free agent that makes the most sense at this point is Contreras. Turner also makes sense but little chance he leaves LA.
  6. endaround
    Tellez Steamer projection: wRC+ 123. Basically his power remains but his BABIP gets back to a decent .258 instead of .215. Abreau wRC+ 126 Bell wRC+ 123 The free agent that makes the most sense at this point is Contreras. Turner also makes sense but little chance he leaves LA.
  7. endaround
    Steamer projections which all seem reasonable. Adames: wRC+ 111 Wong: wRC+ 106 Urias: wRC+ 109 Turang: wRC+ 93 Peterson: wRC+ 95 Brosseau: wRC+ 91 Basically no reason to makes space for Turang. His value has always been a decent bat for SS with defense that can make him an average SS. Turang needs to be traded. He's not too old (23 next year) but a 3rd year at AAA will likely drive down his value. Yes you can try to make him a sub but to what end? You can get bench players for cheap and you lose out on much of his value by wasting a cheap year on the bench.
  8. endaround
    Spending 2nd round picks on a running back is always questionable. It is really questionable if the RB isn't even playing their first year and you have an RB signed to a huge contract. That is a lot of resources tied to a fungible position. Love at this point it doesn't matter. His 5th year option will be like $20-22 million. Anyone want to pay that? This draft with zero real QB prospects was the time to move him to a team that could have him start to see if anything is there. But at this point, if he plays well you aren't going to want to extend him on one season and if you pick up the option then your are looking a Kirk Cousins franchise tag situation which will kill you.
  9. endaround
    My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.
  10. endaround
    My answer is no, but then I know I am by myself with not trading anyone over the next two years and trying to actually win 90+ games each year. Right now marginal wins are valuable, in three or four years when these prospects are ready, the Brewers may be struggling for that 75th win. And this is what these trades are, expected wins today for expected future wins. Right now there are only 7 or 8* teams trying to win in the NL. That is likely to change in the future as the Cubs and the Nationals are not going to sit on the sidelines forever. So strike when you have the most to gain and when wins have the most meaning. In two years, you let everyone walk, get a bunch of draft picks, trade Peralta and Ashby (if he has value), trade some of the younger players coming up now (Wiemer if still on the Brewers would make sense given his age and Chourio coming up. Another option would be Mitchell) and go from there. *Well I think Colorado is also trying but in that special Colorado way which is panful to watch, so there is 9th team technically.
  11. endaround
    Football Outsiders film room did a break down of the Washington game: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2022/fall-aaron-rodgers-and-green-bay-packers TL,DR: Rodgers isn't helping by rushing his throws but the big issue is that there are zero NFL quality WRs playing right now to make the offense work.
  12. endaround
    That just isn't true. There were really loaded earlier teams but easy to look at 2017 forward 2017 Brinson, Ray, Grisham 2018 Lutz, Grisham, Ray 2019 Lutz, Ray 2020 Here Ruiz could beat out Lutz and Ray but that is not really saying much 2021 Mitchell
  13. endaround
    If your lottery ticket wins it doesn't mean that the lottery was a good investment. Gosser and Ruiz are 40 grade prospects and should be valued as such. If they turn out that doesn't make the trade any better than if they don't.
  14. endaround
    This has all the makings of a game the refs try to hand to Brady
  15. endaround
    Who had Game 3 as the first Watkins was going to miss due to injury?
  16. endaround
    Can we stop with the square pegs in round holes? Turang's bat is passable at shortstop with a decent glove. It isn't at 2B. And that is ignoring that he hasn't played 2B. The Brewers have a capable 2B if Wong goes in Urias (Urias has neither the glove nor the bat for 3B) and a decent 3B platoon if Peterson is re-signed. The difference between Peterson last year and this year isn't his bat (wRC+ 98 vs wRC+ 101 is basically noise) but playing more 3B where he's a good defensively (DRS 10, UZR 1.9, RAA 4) vs 2B where he's bad (DRS -3, UZR -1.6, RAA -1). Otherwise trading for a 3B makes sense (Diaz is 31 and about to enter his 2nd arby year so it's likely Tampa will be looking to deal). I like Turang but I do not see a place for him with the Brewers outside of a utility role which while providing depth doesn't help to actually improve the team.
  17. endaround
    Well sure, to reflect the anniversary of the runner up ceremony of 1983 from the 1982 World Series loss
  18. endaround
    Rosenthal always seemed like a last second grab when whatever they planned to do with the free-uped money from Hader fell through.
  19. endaround
    https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daniel-vogelbach/14130/stats?position=1B/DH Pretty sure they could have gotten him... McCutchen was paying full rate for a 1 win player with little upside to beat the contract and tons of downside.
  20. endaround
    Burnes and Yelich would basically cancel one another out, so you could get back some FV 35 prospects as face savings.
  21. endaround
    Pederson was basically replacement level the previous two years before his contract. He is now a platoon bat. Renfroe will be worth 2 wins for the second season in a row. Given the Brewers spent $8.5 million on McCutchen hard to see then blanching at $10 million dollars for an actual starting level player.
  22. endaround
    Pittsburgh
  23. endaround
    He almost certainly can not get unemployment. Most states exempt professional athletes from unemployment. Of course they think of millionaire athletes when it occurs but the vast majority of professional athletes earn a pittance. Another way MiLB players are screwed.
  24. endaround
    Suter ZIPS ROS xFIP 4.16 Bush ZIPS ROS xFIP 4.24
  25. endaround
    Bush is 36 years old and hasn't pitched more than 40 innings since 2017. He wasn't good in any season since 2017 until this year,
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