They would need to win 15 games and they have 5 vs the Pirates, 6 vs the Phillies, 6 vs the Padres, 3 vs the Braves, 6 vs the Reds, 3 vs Orioles and 7 vs the Brewers. Only the Pirates and Padres are under .500. They have 31 games against playoff contenders if you include the Padres otherwise only 25 games against playoff contenders. They would need to win the remaining games against the Pirates for 5 wins and then pick up 10 wins against the Phillies, Padres, Braves, Reds, Orioles and Brewers. They would need to go 10-21 against those teams which is possible but not all that likely. If they only pick up 2 or 3 against the Pirates then that means winning 12 or 13 against the playoff contenders which gets even more difficult.
And I was being questioned for stating the Cardinals were out of it back in June and July because that one time the Cardinals were able to make a comeback and make it into the playoffs.