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Eye Black

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Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    According to Aaron Gleeman the Twins payroll is currently at $117 million for this season. Last year their payroll was $128 million. The Indians lack of impactful moves has left the door open for the Twins to try to make a run at the AL Central title.
  2. Eye Black
    They are going from Majestic to Nike in 2020. Back in 2016 Under Armour initially agreed to a deal to become the MLB uniform provider by 2020, but that deal ultimately fell through and Nike took over as the official uniform supplier (Link). Easily the worst part of the deal is the possibility that the Nike swoosh ends up on the front of the jerseys similar to what Nike already does on their college baseball jerseys (Link).
  3. Eye Black
    No, I think Keuchel is better than Suter, I was just surprised how well Suter matched up on some of those stats last season. Keuchel did throw twice as many innings as Suter last season, so it isn’t exactly an apples to apples comparison. I get the sense the front office prefers having a southpaw in the rotation, especially since they seemingly value showing varying looks to hitters. I won’t do cartwheels if they add Keuchel, but I do think it will be an overall upgrade to the rotation for the near future.
  4. Eye Black
    Just for fun each LHP’s 2018 stats “per 9 innings”... Dallas Keuchel: 9.3 H/9; 0.8 HR/9; 2.6 BB/9; 6.7 K/9 Brent Suter: 9.1 H/9; 1.6 HR/9; 1.7 BB/9; 7.5 K/9
  5. Eye Black
    From Travis Sawchik, Bryce Harper May Already Be Past His Prime. Also, the reported offers for Harper per Bob Nightengale:
  6. Eye Black
    yeah we were talking about that in the Machado thread I think. He's making $34 million a year right now. I doubt he takes a year pay cut. I’ll start the bidding (guessing) at 11 years and $440 million.
  7. Eye Black
    If the Cubs hadn't committed $126 million to Yu Darvish last off-season I think they would have found a way to sign Harper this off-season.
  8. Eye Black
    I realize Spring Training stats are mostly meaningless, and 10 AB’s isn’t even enough to qualify as a small sample size, but Corey Ray’s Spring Training stats after a few games: 5-for-10, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 3 SO.
  9. Eye Black
    FanGraphs 2019 BABIP Surgers Article lists the players with the biggest 2018 discrepancy between BABIP and xBABIP. I'll let you guess who tops the list for lowest BABIP as compared to their expected BABIP.
  10. Eye Black
    I like Stokes too, but if he can't get that average up, he's going to end up being a blip on the radar. A .233 average isn't going to cut it for a player with his skillset and measurables. Yep, his skillset requires a .247 average.
  11. Eye Black
    From Adam McCalvy...
  12. Eye Black
    Granted it was in the minors, but worth noting for the OPS splits above that Keston Hiura had a .994 OPS versus LHP last season (not counting AFL stats).
  13. Eye Black
    Reminder for those who haven’t already predicted win totals for the NL Central teams, get your guesses in by the end of February if you would like to participate. I will tally and average everyone’s submissions next weekend.
  14. Eye Black
    The Cubs ZiPS graphic was released last week. Based on the addition of Moustakas at 2B, below is the updated projected ZiPS fWAR for the Brewers and the rest of the NL Central based on each team’s ZiPS graphic (doesn’t include all bench players). Cubs (43.9 WAR) Starters 16.6 Bullpen 5.0 Position Players 22.3 Brewers (41.8 WAR) Starters 11.4 Bullpen 5.8 Position Players 24.6 Cardinals (41.3 WAR) Starters 12.9 Bullpen 4.2 Position Players 24.2 Reds (37.4 WAR) Starters 10.3 Bullpen 4.3 Position Players 22.8 Pirates (35.3 WAR) Starters 11.3 Bullpen 4.7 Position Players 19.3 As mentioned previously, these projected WAR totals only take into account players shown on the ZiPS graphics above, so it doesn’t account for positional role players such as Ben Gamel and Eric Thames. Assuming all teams get approximately the same production from their role players, below is a rough translation of the ZiPS WAR into projected win totals: Cubs - 90 wins Brewers - 88 wins Cardinals - 87 wins Reds - 83 wins Pirates - 81 wins
  15. Eye Black
    Bumping this thread now that the position player side of the roster seems mostly set. In 2018 the league average OPS was .728. Last season the Brewers had the 2nd best OPS versus RHP in the National League with a .749 OPS. They were 7th in the National League versus LHP at a .742 OPS. Below is last year’s OPS splits versus Right-Handed Pitchers and Left-Handed Pitchers among the players most likely to make the Brewers’ opening day roster in 2019. OPS vs. RHP in 2018 [pre]C. Yelich 1.007 Travis Shaw 0.892 Jesús Aguilar 0.876 Yasmani Grandal 0.844 Eric Thames 0.804 Mike Moustakas 0.798 Lorenzo Cain 0.753 Ryan Braun 0.745 Ben Gamel 0.742 Manny Piña 0.739 C. Spangenberg 0.725 Hernán Pérez 0.612 Orlando Arcia 0.570[/pre] OPS vs. LHP in 2018 [pre]C. Yelich 0.983 Lorenzo Cain 0.979 Jesús Aguilar 0.929 Ryan Braun 0.859 Hernán Pérez 0.783 Yasmani Grandal 0.727 Mike Moustakas 0.721 Ben Gamel 0.663 Eric Thames 0.612 Travis Shaw 0.599 Orlando Arcia 0.596 Manny Piña 0.577 C. Spangenberg 0.417[/pre] Obviously they face right-handed pitching more often, and the team appears well positioned to have a good amount of offensive success against them. They have an incredible 10 hitters who were above the MLB average OPS versus RHP. It may be a different story on the other side of the coin where the bottom half of the lineup is more likely to struggle versus southpaws.
  16. Eye Black
    The Brewers Player Development Twitter account officially announces the Brett Lawrie minor league deal. He will wear #15 in minor league camp.
  17. Eye Black
    We have a Spring Training Thread dedicated to discussion and overreaction from these mostly meaningless games. Please use that location to make observations surrounding player performance in Spring Training games.
  18. Eye Black
    Great for Jeff but really stinks as he was a terrific writer. Was one of the first (only?) to see a change in stats and then look to the film to see if there was a mechanical reason behind it. Perfect blend of scouting and stats. Hope he does well for the Rays. Jeff was excellent at covering baseball with the perfect balance of analysis and lightheartedness. I’m sad to see him go. Very happy for him, but really going to miss his articles and Effectively Wild co-host appearances.
  19. Eye Black
    Today the Brewers begin their 2019 Spring Training quest as defending Cactus League Champions. Use this thread to discuss game related items/action throughout Spring Training. Note: Games listed in the first schedule are local time for Arizona. Use the second schedule for Central Time listings.
  20. Eye Black
    Wow, how horrible does that make the Steamer projection system look? Well it has already changed back closer to what it was previously, so maybe the hacking theory wasn't so far off? I wish I would have taken a screenshot.
  21. Eye Black
    After causing much consternation earlier in the off-season, the Fangraphs projected standings have been updated with the Brewers now in first place in the National League Central. The new FanGraphs projections... Brewers 87-75 Cardinals 84-78 Cubs 80-82 Pirates 79-83 Reds 79-83 It’s a pretty significant change from the previous projections, so my assumption is that either the ZiPS data is now rolled in, [sarcasm]or someone hacked their site.[/sarcasm]
  22. Eye Black
    AUDIO via Effectively Wild Podcast: Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Manny Machado signing with the Padres and what the news means for the free-agent market and the futures of the NL West, the Phillies, and Bryce Harper, then preview the 2019 Los Angeles Angels (31:34) with The Athletic’s Angels beat writer, Fabian Ardaya, and the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers (1:02:42) with The Athletic’s Brewers beat writer, Robert Murray, plus a postscript on Machado and Don Newcombe.
  23. Eye Black
    Saw this tweet from Tom Haudricourt responding to a fan that mentioned they would have preferred signing Jed Lowrie or Asdrúbal Cabera. I just have to point out the irony of this statement from the same reporter that previously built a narrative around the 2017 team being overly reliant on home runs. I am fine with the Moustakas signing, and understand why they likely didn’t want to give Lowrie the two or three year deal it would have likely taken to pry him away from signing with his agent-turned-GM. I also think it’s silly to suggest Moustakas is a superior hitter because he is able to hit more home runs (btw, Lowrie and Cabrera each hit 23 HRs last year).
  24. Eye Black
    From an article on the Moustakas signing: I get the sense they’ve prioritized having a strong lineup to face RHPs. Unfortunately 3 of those 4 LHP starters in the division pitch for the Cubs. The only other left-handed starter currently in the division is Alex Wood of the Reds.
  25. Eye Black
    Hernán Pérez is a fine utility player, but 50 times last year he started a game batting in the top 6 in the lineup. Exactly half of those were in the 1, 2, 4, and 5 spots (with the #5 spot being the majority of those starts). With the Moose signing it seems more likely that we should rarely see Pérez hit in the top two-thirds of the batting order.
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