JosephC

Just sort of looking at the landscape now. Have to figure I probably would have been outbid by the White Sox for Grandal, and would have not come close to matching the offer for Moustakas. So I am out both of those players. Would have gone ahead and done the Anderson and Davies/Grisham deals, so I am out those player but have added Urias, Lauer and Spanberger. Would have kept Thames and offered arbitration to Guerra and Claudio so I still have those three players. Shaw and Nelson are gone in my plan. With the bullpen guaranteed to never drop below 8 pitchers now, I still think there is a role for Claudio. If I had known that the A's were going to not offer arbitration to Ryan Buchter, I would have dumped Claudio and went after Buchter instead. Would have not done the Narvaez trade. I don't like terrible defensive catchers so good luck to the Brewers organization trying to fix that. I have my doubts. Will probably love his bat...but...just not a guy I would have targeted. So my roster would currently look like: SP = Brandon Woodruff, Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer RP = Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, Junior Guerra, Alex Claudio, Brent Suter, Ray Black C = Manny Pina IF = Eric Thames, Keston Hiura, Luis Urias, Orlando Arcia OF = Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Ben Gamel And obviously there are a bunch more candidates for a few of these spots, I'm just naming the locks for the 25 man roster (assuming Knebel is healthy). I'd like to have Freddy Peralta start in AAA to work on his secondary pitches so that's why he is not listed, but I have a feeling he'll wind up on the opening day roster out of pure necessity. So now that we are in December, here are the offers I'd throw out today: RHSP - Kevin Gausman - 1 year, 6.5 million (would be willing to do 2 years if necessary) RHRP - Blake Treinen - 1 year, 6 million C - Jason Castro - 2 years, 10 million RHSP - Taijuan Walker - 1 year, 2 million with incentives that could take the $ way up, maybe even include a generous vesting option 3B/2B - Jung Ho Kang - split contract offer And I'd still be interested in Dallas Keuchel, not sure where the market would be with him, and multiple relievers. And probably would be circling back on Travis Shaw. It looks like it would be him or make a minor trade to try and plug the gap. Also need another infielder and would like to grab another outfielder to compete with Taylor for the last OF spot. If Attanasio green lights a 120 million opening day payroll, then I would still have approximately 25 million to play with even if completing all of the offers above. So I still have enough money to add one big pitcher (not Bumgarner) if the right opportunity is there.

What do you see in Cease being a ToR arm. Last year in AAA: 68 IPs - 75 hits allowed - 32 BBs, 3 HBPs - 1.57 WHIP -4.48 ERA. Much worse when he got called up. I don't see that as a #1-2 type guy, much less a decent trade for one of the best in MLB. I think Kopech would have more value around the league, but I think the White Sox want to be competitive next year and they have a serious depth problem in their rotation. Unless I'm reading their situation wrong, I think they'd be more open to trading Kopech rather than Cease.

I'm not opposed to bringing in Bird, but I think he's played his way down to split-contract level and I'd only be interested in him if he was willing to do that type of deal.

That whole Utah thing was pretty funny. Talk about another over-rated team that played a completely dog schedule. They didn't beat an 8+ win all year. Best wins came against 4 different 7-5 teams. BYU (30-12 on the road), Arizona State (21-3 at home), California (35-0 at home), Washington (33-28 on the road). Note that Arizona State, California and Washington all finished at 4-5 in Pac 12 play. At least Oregon had a win over USC. Absolutely no surprise that Oregon beat Utah. Oregon will provide a much tougher game in the Rose Bowl if the Badgers are fortunate enough to end up there.

I agree that the Brewers should use Hader for a young, controlled starting pitcher with ToR potential. The other offensive positions the Brewers have been adept at drafting or filling via bargin free agency. Hader straight up for Snell makes sense because these leaves us in WIN NOW mode. Cease has potential but he will still likely have a few years of growing pains at the MLB level even if he ever reaches ace status. I actually feel that the White Sox RHP prospect Michael Kopech has an even higher ceiling than Cease. I would take one of those guys, plus a few more top pieces in an offer from Chicago before I'd consider trading Hader. Package Examples: WHITE SOX RHP Michael Kopech or Dylan Cease C/1B Zack Collins 3B Jake Burger This would at least have my attention. PADRES LHP MacKenzie Gore RHP Luis Patino or LHP Ryan Weathers 3B Hudson Potts BRAVES RHP Ian Anderson 3B Austin Riley RHP Kyle Wright or LHP Kyle Muller DODGERS SS Gavin Lux C Keibert Ruiz RHP Josiah Gray NATIONALS 3B Carter Kieboom RHP Mason Denaburg LHP Tim Cate ASTROS RHP Forrest Whitley C Korey Lee RHP Jose Urquidy A'S LHP Jesus Luzardo C Sean Murphy RHP Daulton Jefferies RAYS (if Snell is untouchable) LHP Brenden McKay 1B Nate Lowe RHP Brent Honeywell These are all big asks, but if any of these contending teams that want Hader balk at these packages than Stearns can tell them to go pound sand, IMO. Jeff McNeil and JD Davis are the type of return I'd expect if Hader was in his final season of team control, BTW. If the Mets took Lutz out of the proposed deal from our side and added in RHP Matthew Allen coming to the Brewers, it could be on par with the packages above however. If any of those teams is crazy enough to offer one of those packages for Josh Hader then the Brewers should say yes in a heartbeat. I could see the White Sox maybe making that deal with Kopech being the pitcher included. For all the hype over his arm, the guy now has hurt his arm (just Tommy John, normally not such a big deal), has one PED bust already, and his control has basically been "suck" throughout his time in the minors. He's always been at the top of the boom-or-bust list and it wouldn't be all that surprising if the White Sox now think the bust outweighs the boom and decide it's time to sell high on him. It may seem ridiculous when looking at the top 100 list...but I would bet that Kopech's value is quite a bit lower among the majority of MLB front offices. Still a good prospect? Yes. Still a top 100 prospect? Yes. Top 20? I think he should be a lot lower. The rest of the deals would all be an immediate no from the opposing GM.

I do appreciate you guys throwing in the negative feedback on Familia. I still think he's the way I'd want to go, but certainly can understand why people wouldn't want to take that risk.

Only real point of optimism in this was the writer did credit Narvaez as being a worker and having a desire to improve his defense. It just sounds like he is such a non-athlete that there just isn't much hope for any defensive improvement. But yeah, it's pretty obvious that Seattle didn't want him on the roster next year and it's not real encouraging that the Brewers were the highest bidder considering their bid wasn't all that much. I do find it likely that DiPoto really overvalues the draft pick.

I don't have feeling about this one way or the other. They gave up very little in value so there isn't anything bad about it from that angle. But the more I read about Narvaez, the more he looks like the next Johnny Estrada and that guy was a horrible pickup for the Brewers. Supposed plus bat for a catcher with questionable defense that you are willing to live with if the offense is there. .760 OPS would look awesome on paper for a catcher, but Narvaez's defense is so bad that a drop from an .813 OPS to a .760 OPS probably drops his WAR from about 1.7 down to about 0.7 and that's about where Scooter Gennett was when the Brewers released him. I just see little wiggle-room for this player....he probably really doesn't help the club all the much unless he OPS's .800+.

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons. It’s hard to believe the Wilpons made it this long after having $500+ million invested with Bernie Madoff when he was busted. Then to make up for it having to reportedly borrow $430 million against the team and $450 million against SNY in addition to a $43 million annual payment on Citi Field. They were reportedly paying more than $100 million annually just to cover debts before paying down any principal. The change in ownership stake could be a game changer for the Mets. Edit: Steven Cohen will obviously be a much more stable influence for the Mets. **Moderator voice**... Not to derail a pretty good discussion, but IMO it's a real black eye for MLB if Steve Cohen becomes a majority owner.

https://prospectinsider.com/mariners-catchers-narvaez-tom-murphy-austin-nola-cal-raleigh-dipoto/ Interesting look at the numbers between Seattle's primary catchers last year. Narvaez sounds like a true butcher behind the plate. -20 DRS for a catcher in 1 season!?

Wow, sure looks like a case where his defense is so bad that the Mariners didn't want him on the roster.

Turang might be a bit of an overpay. Maybe Small. But that's probably about it. I see it the same way. Turang and Small are likely the consensus 1/2 in the system and probably the only two players that wouldn't be moved in this type of trade.

Last year Navarez was a 1.95 fWAR/bWAR player. From 2017-2019 Navarez averaged 1.57 fWAR/bWAR per season. Steamer is only projecting him for a measley 0.7 WAR in 2020. Take the high number and he's worth the top three prospects in the Brewer's system. Take the low number and he's only worth a couple fringe prospects. Mariners have been selling off veteran players for pennies on the dollars but Navarez doesn't make much money so the only reason they would move him for nothing is if they think his defense is so pitiful that they just can't live with him anymore. Either that, or the Brewers are giving up asset(s) that the Mariners truly do covet. Taking the middle ground on this, I'd project the return to Seattle to look like: Mariners get one of these two players: Aaron Ashby or Mario Feliciano And then the Mariners get one more player out of this list OR get two fringe prospect further down the line: Payton Henry, Micah Bello, Carlos Rodriguez That seems like a pretty reasonable return. I have to admit that I will be very worried if the Brewers obtain Narvaez just a couple non-top 30 prospects because why would the Mariners be willing to trade him for next to nothing? Only reason would be that his defense is as bad as advertised. I'm still trying to recover from that one season watching Johnny Estrada "catch" for the Brewers, which was a traumatic experience as that guy was awful, awful, awful, awful.

Pretty much the same here, only I'd add Yelich to the list. I'd deal Hiura to a team like the Angels... for Adell, La Stella, and Ohtani. That's not gonna happen. I floated the idea of putting Yelich out there and asking a sky-high return about a week ago. The only reason I would be willing to do that is because, next off-season, I'd be offering him a 5 year, 160 million dollar extension (as high as I'd go), and when he'd reject that, then I'd be actively shopping him. I just don't think small market teams can wait until the trade deadline in the final year of control and then have to settle for a back end top 100 prospect and a couple of other so-so prospects. So while I wouldn't be shopping him this off-season, I would next off-season assuming he'd decline an extension offer.

Dylan Bundy is AL East proven and therefore would have been a nice pickup for Milwaukee. Having pitched in the AL East makes Bundy battle-tested and better than the B Division type pitching the Brewers have to rely on, Brandon Woodruff being one example. Signed, East Coast Baseball Writer

I'd guess that's a no. Majority owner will change, but that change won't occur until 2025. The Wilpon's still operate the team for the next few seasons.

And I guess I don't have a problem with that considering the organization's history of pitching. I personally guarantee, the first time the Brewers give a pitcher a multi-year contract that totals over 20 million per season(*), that pitcher's throwing arm will fall right off his body within the first month of the deal. That's an absolute, 100% guarantee to happen. And every Brewer fan out there knows that's exactly what will happen. * = not saying it will happen soon, but baseball inflation will eventually get us there.

So I take it I'm the only one here that would rather have Familia as part of this deal instead of Lowrie? I really like taking a 2 year gamble on Familia the more I look at it. Bad year last year but good relievers sometimes just have bad years. Will only be entering his age 30 season. Numbers from 2015-2018 may not be elite but are far better than just being good. Lifetime lefties have slashed .264/.352/.383/.735 off of him and righties have slashed .197/.282/.271/.552. Not a product of the Mets home park, career numbers on the road are a 2.62 ERA and .215/.303/.302/.605. Has allowed 23 home runs in 412 2/3 MLB innings pitched...even with the bad year this year he only gave up 7 home runs in 60 innings pitched. I'm looking at the Brewers depth chart now, and assuming Knebel is not ready at the start of the season, let's figure out who the top 7th/8th inning candidates are? I'll take an everyday, starting bat over a relief pitcher 95+% of the time, I just question if Lowrie even has an "everyday" tag after the season he just went through. And really, back end of bullpen guys is a pretty significant need for this team because after Hader (and before Knebel gets back) there isn't much of any track record there. If the Mets would throw 4 million into this (along with the 1 million trade bonus which I'm assuming they'd be willing to pick up without debate), then for me it's an easy decision to take Familia instead of Lowrie in this deal.

I'd feel a lot better about a Lowrie/Smith package if I had just a bit more confidence in Lowrie's health. I'd like to at least get something out of him in case Smith doesn't pan out. Look at Lowrie's injury list from last year...knee, hamstring, calf and probably some more stuff in there (at one time the Mets just referred to his injury as "left side" because there were so many things wrong with his left leg). And I believe he was having problems with his calf in the right leg. Sure seemed like his legs just totally broke down last year. Not saying I'd be opposed to this swap, but there is just about as much to not like about it as there is to like about it IMO...which probably means a Lowrie/Smith for a role player type prospect is probably a pretty fair deal. What's the thought about the return to the Mets? Maybe someone like Braden Webb? Also, any thoughts on Jeurys Familia instead of Lowrie? Familia is a much bigger financial commitment (2 years, 22 million....Mets have to pick up the 1 million trade bonus), and he was terrible in 2019...but from 2015-2018 he was a 2.68 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 over 250+ innings pitched. Some conflicting information on his velocity, one source has it dropping from 96.2 to 96.0 and another has it going from 97.0 to 95.7. Familia has been pretty decent with ground ball rates and could be a good fit in Miller Park. Other than a possible 97.0 to 95.7 velocity drop, I like the look of the overall resume even considering the bad year last year. If the Mets would kick in 4 million and bring the price down to 2 years, 18 million, then I'd rather have Familia instead of Lowrie.

No, I would not entertain offers for Hiura. He and Woodruff are the only two players in the organization that I would put the "traditional" untouchable label on. There are a few more players that I wouldn't be interested in dealing, but that's only because their value has been driven so low that I would rather just hold on to them because the upside still outweighs a "nothing" return (examples being Arcia, Ray).

I don't think that's the case, but people here are really under-valuing McNeil. I don't think there is any question that his perceived value suffers just like Merrifield's did a couple years back. "Well he is older and was never a Top 50 prospect so he just can't be that good." Look at the track record the last four years and it's pretty solid evidence he'll continue to be a good MLB player. 2019 bWAR/fWAR average: Christian Yelich = 7.45 Jeff McNeil = 4.8 Yasmani Grandal = 3.85 Mike Moustakas = 3.0 Lorenzo Cain = 2.15 Keston Hiura = 2.1 Ryan Braun = 1.85 Eric Thames = 1.75 Top 30 in all of baseball in fWAR and bWAR among hitters. It's not like trading an elite reliever for a guy like Travis Shaw was three years ago...a guy with OBP problems and projected as a possible "B Division" starting third baseman. The Brewers would be trading an elite reliever for a guy who was in the top 30 among hitters in both bWAR and fWAR in 2019, a guy with five years of team control left with two of those season's near the league minimum. Obtaining Hader would not only be a unique opportunity for the Mets, obtaining McNeil could also be a unique opportunity for the Brewers.

There are a few guys I'd have interest in: RHRP - Blake Treinen RHSP - Taijuan Walker RHSP - Kevin Gausman If the Brewers didn't have 2B already covered, I would for sure include Cesar Hernandez on this list. If Gausman ends up signing a 1 year, 4 million dollar deal, then I like him as much as any of the "tier C" free agent pitchers. He had an awful ERA last year (5.72), but the xFIP was only 4.05. From 2016-2018 he was a 4.07 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 1.36 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 pitcher. No velocity drop from 2018-2019 and will only be in his age 29 season. I'd go after him pretty hard actually. Walker is a risk coming off injury but he's always been a high upside guy and I'd be willing to roll the dice on him. Treinen...who knows...could just prove to be an up-and-down reliever based on if his control is running hot or cold. Again, certainly the upside to take a chance on him.

I was looking at the Pac 12 standings with the news of Chris Peterson stepping down. Talk about odd. Only 3 out of 12 teams had winning records within conference play. 9 of the 12 at 4-5 or worse. Hard to believe that could even happen.

This really wouldn't be surprising at all. The highest the Brewers ever ran an opening day payroll prior to 2019 was 104 million in 2015, and then Attanasio jumped it from 90 million to 122 million when going from 2018 to 2019. So it was a 36% increase from 2018 to 2019...or a 17% increase over the all-time high. Pretty significant jump either way you look at it. I remember doing the off-season plan last year and ended up naming Wilson Ramos instead of Grandal because I thought the season end payroll would probably be limited to 118 million so didn't want to go over 112 for opening day which excluded giving Grandal an 18 million dollar deal. If this news is legit, my reaction is that the news really doesn't tell me anything. If they are cutting the opening day payroll from 122 million to 100 million, then this is a huge story. But if Attanasio has run the numbers and just missed his projected profit margin by a few million, and has told Stearns that he wants to decrease the opening day payroll from 122 million to 118 million and then is willing to maintain the normal trade deadline flexibility like he has done in the past, then this isn't really news at all. It's not at all unreasonable to think that Attanasio did stretch the budget last year based on the historical numbers so a little belt-tightening shouldn't be that surprising or alarming.

I don't like letting Guerra go and am disappointed by this news. He pitched a ton (83 2/3 innings) and all in relief. Ended up with a very respectable 3.55 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Yeah, there were some negatives in the stat sheet but overall he was pretty solid for what probably would have been a sub 4 million payday which is probably only about 3% of the team's payroll. Just see Guerra falling in the same category as Thames...these guys are no way superstars and sometimes they drive you nuts when you watch them play...but good luck replacing their production at their level of pay.