JosephC

I'm pretty disappointed that they didn't take Saladino and Cedeno off the 40-man and add Olczak and Ponce. Especially Olczak, who might have a pretty good chance of being a piece in the Brewer's bullpen shuffle. I still think there is still #4 starter potential in Ponce and IMO is worth a back-end spot on the 40-man roster. No doubt the Brewers probably are looking at Ponce like Tyrone Taylor last year. Here's a guy coming off a mediocre season and doesn't have front-line MLB player potential. Leave him exposed and if you lose him, it's not like you are losing a future All-Star. He comes back and can prove himself worthy of a 40-man spot the following season. I would have added Ponce now but certainly can understand why the Brewers didn't. Cedeno is out of options so if the team offers him arbitration, it's basically making a full season commitment as they really have no flexibility to send him up and down. IMO Cedeno is just a guy. He has just over five years of MLB experience and has pitched with five different MLB teams. Getting him off the roster saves the team an estimated 1.5 million and gives them money to spend elsewhere. Saladino does have one option left, so I can't argue with keeping him around as the Brewers would have roster flexibility with him and he does provide excellent position versatility. I really don't think this causes any roster inflexibility. Example, if they sign a catcher then just take Kratz off the 40-man. Then they have the new catcher and Pina, and Nottingham should provide a pretty decent insurance policy. They really don't have a major infield opening if they offer Schoop arbitration, but if they don't offer him arbitration then he's off the 40-man which clears a roster spot for his replacement. In terms of pitching, Wilkerson is still on the 40-man and it don't think anyone would lose too much sleep if the just released Albers and ate the money that he has coming. Broxton is out of options and they might have a real tough time keeping him through next season. I think there is plenty of roster flexibility remaining even if the Brewers would have added a couple more minor leaguers to the 40-man roster. As a side note, I wouldn't have added Gatewood. Not just because of the injury, but I really question if he has the offensive package to stick in the MLB as a first baseman. I really like Torres-Costa, but with the injury I just can't see another team drafting him. But I would have really liked to see them add Olczak and, to a lesser extent, Ponce.

Some people hate free money... It should never be described as free money. When companies do the math and figure out what they can pay people, it's not like they just ignore the benefits aspect and pay the employee top dollar and then take it in the shorts when picking up their share of the benefit. A person's wage shouldn't be viewed as the paycheck but the paycheck plus all the benefits. That is what an individual's pay actually is. People should be told that if they are not taking advantage of a 401k match, that they are not turning down free money, but they are actually giving a percentage of their hard-earned money back to their employer for no good reason at all.

That Wil Myers contract is a strange one: 15 million signing bonus 2017 = 2 million 2018 = 2 million 2019 = 3 million 2020 = 20 million 2021 = 20 million 2022 = 20 million 2023 = Club option for 20 million, 1 million buyout No doubt the Mariners are drooling over that 3 million dollar number for 2019 and then King Felix's contract ends so instead of overpaying him, then they are overpaying Myers instead. The Cardinals are paying part of Leake's remaining contract. All told, if this deal would go through without any more MLB contracts added in: 2019 = The Mariners save 22.25 million 2020 = The Mariners save 5.25 million 2021 = The Mariners are in the hole for 0.75 million 2022 = The Mariners are in the hole for 5.75 million 2023 = Push as Segura and Myers buyouts are equal Another 21 million off the books. King County Council looking like bigger suckers by the minute. Mike Leake knows that his big paydays are over. Would't be at all surprising if he'd demand the 2021 option be turned into a player option which would guarantee him an additional 13 million and could very well kill this deal.

I still like Forsythe better than Dietrich as a second base option. Forsythe was bad at the plate in 2018 and is only an average defensive player. But I like his chances of bouncing back to be something like a .335 OBP/.740 OPS player next year. That would make him a much better option with the bat than Perez. And even with average defense, he'd be much better in the field than Dietrich. If the cost on Forsythe is 2 million or less for 1 season, he's my pick to be the 2B bridge to Hiura. And on Hiura, after the Brewers play the "years of control" game with him, it's very likely they will then play the "super two" game with him. Even if he breaks out like gangbusters to start 2019, I think the earliest we see him in a Brewer uniform would be late May.

Dietrich was terrible at the plate over the last two months of the season. .232/.289/.362/.651. Simply, I think this gave the Marlins a great chance to cheap out yet again and dump what will be an estimated 4.8 million contract next season. Dietrich has averaged 1.3 fWAR/bWAR over the last 4 seasons and last year was a down year for him after the last two months. I can understand why they had to move Stanton's contract, but I'd have a real hard time accepting this if I was a Marlins fan. 4.8 million for a 1.3 WAR player is not a bad investment by any means. They will likely have the payroll under 75 million next year, and it really looks like they'll be shooting for sub-50 million payroll in 2020. Hopefully all the folks in south Florida will send a message to this team and completely ignore all the new logo/colors merchandise. Being a Marlins fan has to be a tough thing. And I sure hope that instead of expansion, MLB owners first look at moving one of those two Florida teams out of the state because it's obvious, despite the number of good-sized markets in that state, that Florida has absolutely no business having two MLB teams. The real shame is that it probably can't be the Marlins because of the new stadium they just put up. It would be interesting how good that Tampa front office would if they got into a market where there was more support and they ended up with significantly more money to play with.

Only thing interesting about him is if he could break Steve Howe's suspension record.

The timing of the Rule 5 eligibility deadline is just ridiculous. Does this mean players like Xavier Cedeno and Tyler Saladino are locks to be offered arbitration since they are still on the 40 man roster and now-Rule 5 eligible players like Jon Olczak and Cody Ponce are not?

If the Brewers aren't going to offer Schoop arbitration, then it only becomes an issue if they want to tie up 9 million in Gray or use the 9 million elsewhere (catching upgrade). Yankees seem desperate to move Gray, and have a 1 year middle infield opening with the Gregorius injury. Both players are only controlled for 1 more season. It seems to make sense for both sides. If Attanasio bumps the payroll enough where the Brewers add Gray's 9 million and still have 12-15 million to play with (add a top catcher and a 2B bridge to Hiura), then I wouldn't be opposed to a Gray/Schoop swap.

All eyes should be closely watching what the Mariners do from this point forward. Nearly 2 months ago to the day, King County approved 135 million in public funds for Safeco renovations. So far this off-season, the Mariners have made two trades that have trimmed around 13 million off the payroll. Hopefully they will be spending that money on the free agent market. If will be very, very disappointing if they do not.

Figured Paxton would bring back right around 40 million in prospect surplus value and that's just about what this package is. Real even trade IMO.

No kidding. Thanks for the 360 million dollar gift for our new playground. Enjoy the 63-98 team. New colors, so please buy more of our ridiculously overpriced stuff. With your added support we might even field an extremely competitive 70-92 team in 2019.

It will be interesting to see if a deal with Houston could be worked out. A reasonable headliner would be Yordan Alvarez. Unfortunately for both sides, Alvarez looks like a future DH and that wouldn't work for the Marlins. The Astros probably consider Tucker and Whitley as untouchables and I don't think they would move either for a 2 year commitment. Then, according to the MLB Pipeline, the next guy on the list is a back 100 pitcher who doesn't seem to grade any higher than Freddy Peralta. Hard to see him being a headliner in Realmuto trade. If the Astros don't give up Tucker or Whitley and the Marlins don't like Alvarez, then it's hard to see a deal between the two sides getting completed. Like if the Brewers could swing a deal without Hiura, the prospect return would likely be pretty overwhelming in terms of quantity. Would be the same for the Astros in a non-Tucker/Whitley/Alvarez deal. Maybe something like RHP-Josh James, RHP-J.B. Bukauskas, SS-Freudis Nova, LHP-Cionel Perez and C-Garrett Stubbs.

Attanasio would have to bump the payroll up to 140 million and leave it there for the next three years in order to make this work. I just don't see it as a possibility from the Brewer's end. If I'm in the Diamondback's GM chair, I would throw this offer into the list of possibilities. Obviously I would try to talk down the prospect return. However, the numbers here make sense. Greinke probably has 10-15 million in negative value. Anderson probably doesn't have much more than 5 million in positive value. So really, in prospect return the Diamondbacks should be throwing 15-20 million worth of prospects in this deal. Varsho is solid "top ten organizational" material...probably worth about 11 million in the numbers I use. Robinson = role-player prospect = 5+ million. Leyba = fringe prospect = 2+ million. I just don't think it can be understated how bad investments can limit what GMs can do. From 2013-2017 the Diamondback's average opening day payroll was 98 million. Last year it jumped to 131 million. If ownership is saying the payroll has to go back down to 100 million, then eating 24 million on this contract means that the team is throwing away 8% of their payroll each of the next 3 years on nothing. When I went though the Brewer GM mock scenario thing a couple weeks ago, all I could think about was how it would be much easier if there were just 5 million more dollars to work with. If I were the Diamondback's GM, I would be more than open to giving up some prospects in order to get out from under Greinke's contract. Varsho seems like a logical place to start. His bat is good enough where he has some real value, but everything I've read indicates he will not stick at catcher. Most logical destination is left field. While he profiles as a good hitter, does his bat play up enough to make him real valuable as a left fielder? Bottom line, if I'm running the D'backs, then I would pretty much expect to have to give up 1 of my 6 best minor leaguers in a deal that would involve not eating any significant amount of money. Anderson comes back in this deal but he's still a postive surplus value player at his reasonable salary and, at worst, should be a useful back-end starter. I'd be very impressed if the Diamondbacks can swing a deal without (A) eating a significant portion of Greinke's remaining deal or, (B) taking on another bad MLB contract or, © giving up a solid but not overwhelming package of prospects to get a deal done. It will be interesting to see what happens when a deal gets done, and I think odds are overwhelming that Greinke will get traded.

Have to give the team a bunch of credit for pulling out that ballgame. Winding down a disappointing season where they will end up in no better than a C-level bowl game...on the road...with a backup QB playing...coming off a three game string of games where they haven't played very well at all...pulling out a win after being down 14 points with under 10 minutes to go in the game. Purdue has beat Boston College, Ohio State and Iowa in their last three home games so it's not like Wisconsin ended up winning a game they should have easily won. Purdue has been Jekyll and Hyde, but the Badgers seemed to get more a Jekyll performance out of them and still managed to win the game. Really a great display of resiliency. It will be interesting to see if all the rumors are true and Brohm goes to Louisville. Lots of folks in Madison are really happy about that because they believe that Brohm is the real deal. I'm still not so sure about him. He's made some interesting personnel decisions that haven't been very good. How does a team lose to Eastern Michigan at home and then beat Ohio State at home during the same season? What about that Minnesota game last week? There are some crazy results on Purdue's schedule.

I think it's questionable if Greinke has any surplus value at this point. His average fWAR/bWAR over the last three years is 3.9 and the projection services has put him at 3.4 WAR in 2019. That seems fair considering his age. I would also say it's appropriate to just go ahead and apply the -0.5 WAR per season rule of thumb over the next few years. 3.4 + 2.9 + 2.4 = 8.7 WAR. With WAR inflation, let's say that 1 WAR = 9.5 million for the 2019-2021 timeframe. 8.7 * 9.5 = 82.65 million. Greinke's salary over that same timeframe is 95.5 million. I'm assuming the Diamondbacks are on the hook for 9 million of his signing bonus that still has not been paid. Greinke also gets a 2 million bonus if traded. I'd have his surplus value as a -12.85 million just based on his salary alone. The trading team would get some "investment income" kicked back in this deal because large portions of his salary are deferred. Most likely outcome here is that Greinke goes to a big market team. The big market team picks up ~25 million per season and the Diamondbacks cover the rest. In return the Diamondbacks get a couple role-player prospects (guys that rank in the #11-#20 region on an organization's prospect list).

2019 version of Wade Miley? Sanchez had a good year last year, but would have to think it as being a total fluke considering how horrible he was the previous 3 seasons. I would definitely not project him to maintain the .255 BABIP or 11.2% HR/FB ratio that he posted in 2018.

I think that's a tad bit high but it's not crazy. Kluber is up there in age but, even assuming a slight decline, probably should be valued at a 5+ WAR performer over the next couple of seasons. Hiura + Santana + maybe someone like Chad McClanahan would be more appropriate. I thought Santana was a real good fit for them 12 months ago and still feel that way today. Big problem for the Brewers would be that this deal cannot be made without a Hiura or Hader being the #1 piece in the deal. Second would be fitting Kluber's contract on the Brewer's payroll. In my mock off-season scenario I had the Brewers not offering arbitration to Schoop and trading Anderson just to get Wilson Ramos on the payroll at 11 million. Adding Kluber probably means also trading Thames and moving his entire salary is probably going to be pretty tough to do. And then after all that, Schoop has not been offered arbitration and there wouldn't be enough money to sign him, Hiura has likely been traded in this deal, there is no money to do any type of significant upgrade at catcher, and the Brewers would be left with only Yelich and Shaw as left-handed bats. Looking at all of this and the Brewers probably have the exact same offensive problems as last year. Attanasio would likely need to bump the payroll to a minimum of 120 million to make this a solid possibility IMO.

I agree. His fWAR is considerably higher than his bWAR. Average annual WAR between the two comes out to about 3.3. Depth Charts and Steamer project him for 4.4 WAR in 2019, to me that seems high based on his history and innings total. I think 6.6 WAR total over the next two seasons is pretty fair. Say 9.25 million per WAR in 2019/2020 and that puts his value at 61.05 million. He's estimated to make 9 million this year and probably is around 12 million next year for a total of 21 million. So the surplus value is right around 40 million. That's pretty much the number that Sonny Gray was at when the A's traded him. IMO Brandon Woodruff + Corey Ray + Lucas Erceg could get a deal done. But it heavily depends on the model. If you value him like Fangraphs, then the package would have to be much better. If you value him like Baseball Reference, then Woodruff + Ray + Erceg would probably be an overpay.

I'd pass on Paxton and Segura. Paxton's high mark for innings is 160 1/3 and that's the only time he's been over 140 innings. The Brewers would have to dedicate all those prospects and then 9 million dollars on top of that. I'd rather just stick with what we've got rather than make a big acquisition like this for a guy that misses time every year. Segura makes 57 million over the next four years and that would be a huge commitment for a player that really under-achieved the last couple of seasons in Milwaukee.

I have to disagree with the Fangraphs writer in a big way. By Fangraphs own numbers, Merrifield had a 4.05 WAR average over the last two seasons (2.9 WAR in 2017, 5.2 WAR in 2018). Depth Chart and Steamer both project him to 2.7 WAR in 2019. Even if one gets really pessimistic with the numbers, hard for me to think that anyone would project Merrifield much lower than 2.7, 2.2, 1.7 and 1.2 WAR over the next four seasons. That's 7.8 WAR total over that timeframe. From other articles I've read, it seems that Fangraphs is using 1 WAR = 9 million for 2018. That number creeps up as time goes on. Let's just say over the next four years, 1 WAR = 9.5 million. That puts Merrifield at 7.8 * 9.5 = 74.1 million which is an extremely conservative estimate. Take another guess that he makes something like 0.6 + 5.5 + 7.5 + 10.5 million over the next four years for a total of 24.1 million. Surplus value = 50 million and IMO that is way, way, way on the low side considering the player is coming off a 5+ WAR season. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11281&position=2B Now let's look at Fangraphs top 131 prospect valuations: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ Now where does 50 million fall on that scale? It doesn't fall near the end of the top 100. It falls in the top 20. Higher than Hiura. Once a person gets past Hiura, Lutz and Ray, the Brewer don't have any single prospect left worth more than 9 million. According to their own numbers, I would think a minimum for Merrifield would be Lutz (25 million), Ray (20 million), Turang (<9 million). And honestly, I personally think Fangraphs has dramatically overvalued Lutz (I'd put his surplus value more around 12 million). If I was in KC's GM chair, a Lutz/Ray/Turang offer would go absolutely nowhere with me. I really like Fangraphs stuff but sometimes really have to question what they come up with. The author should have never said a Merrifield trade starts with a back end top 100 piece. Should have said it starts with two top 90 pieces and some real quality (as in considerably better than Mauricio Dubon) beyond that. And IMO, that's a best case scenario for a team trading for Merrifield, as only having to give up 50 million in prospect surplus value would be a huge, huge bargain.

Taylor's MiLB career slash line is .268/.325/.404/.729. That's below average offense for an outfielder unless the guy can play plus-plus centerfield defense. While Taylor got some positive review for his centerfield play early in his MiLB career, the stuff I've been reading lately says his defense is plus for a corner spot and just average for centerfield. Last year he played 56 games in center, 39 games in left and 26 games in right. I don't think he's trade bait, but rather the Brewers see him as a versatile outfielder who will be a decent insurance policy. Braun has missed an average of 40 games over the last three years. Cain has missed an average of 29 games over the last three years. Broxton is out of options and he'll probably be headed to another organization. I think chances are very good that we see Taylor in a Brewer's uniform for parts of the 2019 season. Hopefully he will hit enough when he gets the chance.

The problem with this offense is Hornibrook is terrible and the offense is completely tailored around his poor arm-strength, poor mobility and inability to complete a simple screen-pass. He sucks. It's just a shame that Coan gets forced into the lineup in two road games against Penn State and Northwestern. Meanwhile Hornibrook gets healthy enough where he should be able to beat up on Rutgers in Madison and still finds a way to look like crap. That's because Hornibrook is terrible and should never see the field again. This is a lost season anyway. I'd be perfectly content to pick one more game for Coan to play in and then just let Vanden Boom go out there and suck it up. How much more of Hornibrook do we have to see to determine that he is not even close to a Big 10 quality player?

This assumes that the payroll limit will set at 112 million to begin next season. To maintain flexibility with roster moves at the trade deadline, I'd like to keep the number at 107 million or under. Arbitration eligible players: IF - Jonathan Schoop = DO NOT OFFER IF - Travis Shaw = 5.1 million RHP - Corey Knebel = 4.9 million RHP - Jimmy Nelson = 3.7 million C - Stephen Vogt = DO NOT OFFER IF/OF - Hernan Perez = 2.7 million RHP - Junior Guerra = 2.7 million RHP - Zach Davies = 2.4 million OF - Domingo Santana = 2 million C - Manny Pina = 2 million C - Erik Kratz = DO NOT OFFER LHP - Dan Jennings = 1.6 million LHP - Xavier Cedeno = DO NOT OFFER IF - Tyler Saladino = DO NOT OFFER Pick up Jeremy Jeffress option at 3.175 million. TRADE: Toronto Blue Jays get RHP-Chase Anderson and $500,000 Milwaukee Brewers get RHP-Joey Murray, OF-DJ Neal, IF-Jose Zepeda None of these prospect are in the top 30 on the MLB Pipeline list, so don't bother to look. Three lower level players, all would be regarded as fringe prospects. The $500,000 is payable this year and is insurance for the Blue Jays. It would cover the 2020 option buyout if Anderson doesn't pitch well for them. My motivation for making this trade is to simply clear 5.5 million dollars of payroll space. If Attanasio puts the payroll limit at 120 million, then this trade is not made. Free agent signings: C-Wilson Ramos = 2 years, 22 million MLBTR has his estimate as 3 years/36 million, Heyman at 1 year/9 million and Heyman's expert at 1 year/10 million. 2 years/22 million is the rough average of those numbers. I would be very aggressive with this move, and would move up to 3 years/36 million if that's what it took. IF-Logan Forsythe = 1 year, 1.5 million Heyman has him at 1 year/1 million and Heyman's expert has him at 1 year/2 million. Forsythe would be my hand-picked player to bridge the second base gap to Hiura. LHP-Jake Diekman = 1 year, 2.15 million Heyman has him at 1 year/3 million and Heyman's expert has him at 1 year/1.25 million. Hard-thrower with control issues would provide some lefty insurance as I would be bit thin with left-handed pitching. A few random notes: -I would not look to trade Thames. The only other left-handed hitters on the roster are Yelich and Shaw. I'm short on left-handed bats even with Thames on the roster. -Hard to believe that Attanasio wouldn't bump up the payroll to the levels I'm estimating here. If he does set it a bit lower, then I pass on Diekman. If he sets it even lower than that, then it's passing on Diekman first, and not offering arbitration to Jimmy Nelson second (which I definitely would not want to do). -Regardless of payroll level, I would shop Chase Anderson. If Attanasio would set the payroll at 120 million instead of 112 million, that would provide a number of options here. I could just keep Anderson. Or, if I got a really good offer for Anderson (would have to be considerably better than the Blue Jays deal from above), I could then trade him and use the available funds to pursue Wade Miley. I really would like to add another possible lefty starter, but it came down to that versus catcher upgrade and I opted for upgrading at catcher. I'm calling this my opening day 26 because of uncertainties with Nelson. If Nelson is ready to pitch and there are no other pitchers that need to start the season on the DL, then I would have no problem just cutting ties with Albers and eating that 2.5 million dollar salary. 2019 salary in () RHP (11) = Jhoulys Chacin (6), Corey Knebel (4.9), Jimmy Nelson (3.7), Jeremy Jeffress (3.175), Junior Guerra (2.7), Matt Albers (2.5), Zach Davies (2.4), Corbin Burnes (0.575), Adrian Houser (0.575), Freddy Peralta (0.575), Brandon Woodruff (0.575) - TOTAL RHP SALARY = 27.675 million LHP (3) = Jake Diekman (2.15), Dan Jennings (1.6), Josh Hader (0.575) - TOTAL LHP SALARY = 4.325 million C (2) = Wilson Ramos (11), Manny Pina (1.8) - TOTAL C SALARY = 12.8 million IF (6) = Eric Thames (6), Travis Shaw (5.1), Hernan Perez (2.7), Logan Forsythe (1.5), Jesus Aguilar (0.575), Orlando Arcia (0.575) - TOTAL IF SALARY = 16.45 million OF (4) = Ryan Braun (18), Lorenzo Cain (15), Christian Yelich (9.75), Domingo Santana (2) = 44.75 million TOTAL SALARY OF ALL ABOVE = 106 million Here are the other 13 to round out the 40 man roster (will leave 1 open spot) RHP (7) = Jacob Barnes, Marcos Diplan, Jon Olczak, Cody Ponce, Trey Supak, Aaron Wilkerson, Taylor Williams LHP (2) = Brent Suter (will be DL'ed), Quintin Torres-Costa (will be DL'ed) C (1) = Jacob Nottingham IF (1) = Mauricio Dubon OF (2) = Troy Stokes, Tyrone Taylor Have to assume that the organization will simply lose Keon Broxton since he is out of options. Would be looking for other LHP options when Suter, Torres-Costa are put on the 60-day DL and don't count on the 40-man. Not really worried about only having the 1 infielder because Hiura probably gets added a few weeks into the season. But would definitely be looking for left-handed pitching, left-handed hitting and some infield help in the split contract and minor league free agency methods of player acquisition. If Saladino and Cedeno get zero free agency interest, those are two guys I would like to have back as non-40 man minor leaguers to begin the season.

Over Kratz? Yeah. Over Pina. No. I would take Zunino over Pina. Three year stats: Additionally Zunino's 4 years younger than Pina. I'd go Pina. I think Zunino's 2017 was a fluke season as he was a .195/.262/.370/.632 hitter before that and a .201/.259/.410/.669 hitter in 2018. I'd project him as about a .200/.260/.390/.650 hitter moving forward. He seems well regarded defensively, but .260 OBP bats would have a real hard time sticking in my preferred lineup and he makes too much money to be a desirable bench piece. I can understand why people would make the argument the other way, because his power and defense makes him a really solid player even if he could just maintain a .310 OBP.

I wouldn't be a proponent of this trade, but what if the Marlins insisted on Josh Hader? Maybe they'd see him as the next Randy Johnson, a dominating starter that would be under control for five seasons. If they figure their window starts in 2021, Hader is just entering arbitration and would still be under three years of team control. After starting negotiations, if the Marlins made this offer, would you take it? Marlins get: LHP-Josh Hader Brewers get: C-J.T. Realmuto LHP-Adam Conley RHP-Edward Cabrera SS-Jose Devers Again, not a proponent of this trade. But if Stearns sees Hader as bullpen only for the long-term, then that is a very attractive offer for a relief pitcher.